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  • 1
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    Assessing the impact of lava flows during the 2020 unrest of the Svartsengi volcanic system on the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-11
    Description: In January 2020, inflation up to 5 cm was detected in the volcanic system of Svartsengi, Reykjanes peninsula (Iceland). The inflation was probably linked to the movement of magma which was estimated to be at a depth of 3-5 km. Shortly after the detection of the inflation, the Scientific Advisory Board responsible for tackling the unrest deemed possible that the unrest could evolve into an effusive eruption. We used both the MrLavaLoba and the DOWNFLOW codes to simulate the area potentially inundated by lava flows in order to assess the hazard posed in case of an effusive eruption. The DOWNFLOW code was used to create a suite of 10,000 simulations which were used to derive maps of the lava flow hazards. These maps can be dynamically updated to account for ongoing modifications suggested by the geophysical signals of the monitoring system. The MrLavaLoba code, in turn, was tuned based on the historical lava flows in the area, so it would be ready to simulate potential lava flow fields if an eruption began. At the time of writing (April 2020), the area appears have experienced two intrusions and is currently in a waning phase. However, the lava flow modeling carried out constitutes an example of rapid response during an ongoing crisis. The post-processing of DOWNFLOW simulations can also allow for preliminary estimations of the time left before lava flow inundates given targets, providing effective support for stakeholders.
    Description: Published
    Description: Perugia, Italy
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: lava flow simulation ; Reykjanes ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 2
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    Degassing regime of Hekla volcano 2012–2013 (2020)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-18
    Description: Hekla is a frequently active volcano with an infamously short pre-eruptive warning period. Our project contributes to the ongoing work on improving Hekla’s monitoring and early warning systems. In 2012 we began monitoring gas release at Hekla. The dataset comprises semi-permanent near-real time measurements with a MultiGAS system, quantification of diffuse gas flux, and direct samples analysed for composition and isotopes (δ13C, δD and δ18O). In addition, we used reaction path modelling to derive information on the origin and reaction pathways of the gas emissions. Hekla’s quiescent gas composition was CO2-dominated (0.8 mol fraction) and the δ13C signature was consistent with published values for Icelandic magmas. The gas is poor in H2O and S compared to hydrothermal manifestations and syn-eruptive emissions from other active volcanic systems in Iceland. The total CO2 flux from Hekla central volcano (diffuse soil emissions) is at least 44 T d−1, thereof 14 T d−1 are sourced from a small area at the volcano’s summit. There was no detectable gas flux at other craters, even though some of them had higher ground temperatures and had erupted more recently. Our measurements are consistent with a magma reservoir at depth coupled with a shallow dike beneath the summit. In the current quiescent state, the composition of the exsolved gas is substantially modified along its pathway to the surface through cooling and interaction with wall-rock and groundwater. The modification involves both significant H2O condensation and scrubbing of S-bearing species, leading to a CO2-dominated gas emitted at the summit. We conclude that a compositional shift towards more S- and H2O-rich gas compositions if measured in the future by the permanent MultiGAS station should be viewed as sign of imminent volcanic unrest on Hekla.
    Description: The research leading to these results has received funding from the Icelandic Centre for Research (RANNIS, grant number 110002-0031); the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 308377 (Project FUTUREVOLC); and the International Civil Aviation Organization.
    Description: Published
    Description: 80-99
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Hekla ; Multi-GAS ; degassing ; volcanic unrest ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Modeling lava flow propagation over a flat landscape by using MrLavaLoba: the case of the 2014–2015 eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: During the emplacement of the 2014-2015 lava flow in Holuhraun (Iceland) a new code for the simulation of lava flows (MrLavaLoba) was developed and tested. MrLavaLoba is a probabilistic code which derives the area likely to be inundated and the thickness of the final lava deposit. The flow field in Holuhraun progressed through a fairly flat floodplain, and the initial limited availability of topographic data was challenging, forcing us to develop specific modeling strategies. The development of the code, as well as simulation tests, continued after the end of the eruption, and latest results largely benefitted from the availability of improved topographic data. MrLavaLoba simulations of the Holuhraun scenario are compared with detailed observational analyses derived from the literature. The obtained results highlight that small-scale morphological features in the preemplacement topography can strongly influence the propagation of the flow. The distribution of the volume settling throughout the extension of the flow field turned out to be very important, and strongly affects the fit between the simulated and the real extent of the flow field. The performed analysis suggests that an improvement in the code should allow adaptable calibration during the course of the eruption in order to mimic different emplacement styles in different phases.
    Description: Published
    Description: VO228
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: lava flow ; Holuhraun ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba (2024)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The 6-month-long effusive eruption at the Fagradalsfjall volcano in 2021 is the most visited eruption site in Iceland to date (June 2023), and it needed intense lava flow hazard assessment. In this study we document how strategies for lava flow modeling were implemented using the stochastic model MrLavaLoba to evaluate hazards during this effusive event. Overall, the purposes were threefold: (a) pre-eruption simulations to investigate potential lava inundation of critical infrastructure, (b) syn-eruption simulations for short-term (2-week time frame) lava flow hazard assessment and (c) syn-eruption simulations for long-term (months to years) hazard assessments. Additionally, strategies for lava barrier testing were developed, and syn-eruption topographic models were incorporated into simulations in near real time. The model provided promising results that were shared regularly at stakeholder meetings with the monitoring personnel, scientists and civil-protection representatives helping to identify potential short-term and long-term lava hazards. This included evaluation of the timing of barrier overflow and the filling and spilling of lava from one valley to another. During the crisis the MrLavaLoba model was updated to increase functionality such as by considering multiple active vents. Following the eruption, the model was optimized substantially, decreasing the computational time required for the simulations and speeding up the delivery of final products.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3147–3168
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Lava flows ; numerical model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Rapid shifting of a deep magmatic source at Fagradalsfjall volcano, Iceland (2023)
    Nature PG
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Recent Icelandic rifting events have illuminated the roles of centralized crustal magma reservoirs and lateral magma transport1-4, important characteristics of mid-ocean ridge magmatism1,5. A consequence of such shallow crustal processing of magmas4,5 is the overprinting of signatures that trace the origin, evolution and transport of melts in the uppermost mantle and lowermost crust6,7. Here we present unique insights into processes occurring in this zone from integrated petrologic and geochemical studies of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland. Geochemical analyses of basalts erupted during the first 50 days of the eruption, combined with associated gas emissions, reveal direct sourcing from a near-Moho magma storage zone. Geochemical proxies, which signify different mantle compositions and melting conditions, changed at a rate unparalleled for individual basaltic eruptions globally. Initially, the erupted lava was dominated by melts sourced from the shallowest mantle but over the following three weeks became increasingly dominated by magmas generated at a greater depth. This exceptionally rapid trend in erupted compositions provides an unprecedented temporal record of magma mixing that filters the mantle signal, consistent with processing in near-Moho melt lenses containing 107-108 m3 of basaltic magma. Exposing previously inaccessible parts of this key magma processing zone to near-real-time investigations provides new insights into the timescales and operational mode of basaltic magma systems.
    Description: The NordSIMS ion microprobe facility acknowledges support by the Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2017-00671), the Swedish Museum of Natural History and the University of Iceland; this is NordSIMS publication no. 713. The involvement of S.A.H. was partly in relation to H2020 project EUROVOLC, funded by the European Commission (grant no. 731070). This work was supported by the Icelandic Research Fund, grant no. 228933-051. A.A. ackowledges funding from Italian Ministero Istruzione Università e Ricerca (Miur), grant PRIN2017-2017LMNLAW
    Description: Published
    Description: 529–534
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Fagradalsfjall ; Icelandic rifting ; geochemistry ; petrology ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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