ALBERT

Beschreibung: This paper documents evidence of surface faulting associated with the 6 April 2009 moderate-sized earthquake (ML 5.8, Mw 6.3) in the central Apennines of Italy, which caused major damage to the town of L'Aquila and its surroundings. Coseismic surface ruptures were mapped for a minimum distance of 2.6 km along the Paganica fault, a fault still poorly investigated relative to the other active faults nearby, which bound much wider range fronts. Surface rupture length (SRL) and maximum displacement parameters (2.6 km minimum and 10-15 cm, respectively) are in agreement with what is expected for an Mw 6.3 event in the Italian Apennines tectonic environment. Different viewpoints exist on the amount of SRL and the number of activated faults. We propose a pattern of sympathetic and secondary slip on an array of faults around the master seismogenic structure. Past seismicity and evidence for larger Holocene offsets on this and other capable faults nearby prove that the 2009 event is not a good reference event for assessing the seismic hazard of the region. Nevertheless, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake once more confirmed the importance of detailed geological studies for a proper seismic hazard assessment, and it clearly illustrates the need to pay attention to moderate events and supposedly minor active faults. Indeed, this type of earthquake is rather frequent in the whole Mediterranean region and is potentially much more destructive than in the past, due to the expanding urban centers and infrastructures inside their epicentral regions and even right above the traces of capable faults.

Beschreibung: The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.