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  • 1
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    Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-11-12
    Description: The most recent IPCC assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially, but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here, in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multi-centennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC-emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessments. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090-2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [-3%, -34%; 90%-probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario, and by 37% [-15%, -65%] under continued high emissions. Afterwards, it stabilizes in the former, but continues to decline in the latter to -74% [+4%, -100%] by 2290-2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 2
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    Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (23). 12,252-12,260.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state‐of‐the‐science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse‐gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    PAPER (OCEANREP)
  • 3
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    North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean states (2015)
    Elsevier Inc NY Journals
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-21
    Description: Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60- 1 Please note that this is an author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available on the publisher Web site year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.
    Description: U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) NSF U.S. Department of Energy NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability Predictability Program NA09OAR4310163 Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Bureau of Meteorology CSIRO National Computational Infrastructure facility at the Australian National University Research Council of Norway through the EarthClim 207711/E10 NOTUR/NorStore projects Centre for Climate Dynamics at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Italian Ministry of Education, University, and Research Italian Ministry of Environment, Land, and Sea under the GEMINA project BNP-Paribas foundation via the PRECLIDE project under the CNRS 30023488 WGOMD
    Description: Published
    Description: 76-107
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Global ocean–sea-ice modelling ; Ocean model comparisons ; Atmospheric forcing ; Experimental design ; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ; North Atlantic simulations ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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