ALBERT

Description: The disappearance of larger individuals and the decrease in individual body condition suffered by Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in the eastern Baltic during the past two decades can be expected to affect the stock reproductive output. To investigate this, female G. morhua were collected during the spawning and pre-spawning period in 2015-2016. The current individual potential fecundity (FP) of eastern Baltic G. morhua was estimated and analysed in relation to total length (LT) and indices of nutritional status such as body condition (K) and hepato-somatic index (IH) using generalized linear models. In addition, the current prevalence of atresia and its potential relation to K were investigated. Moreover, a calibration curve to estimate FP from oocyte diameter, based on the autodiametric oocyte counting method, was established for the first time for eastern Baltic G. morhua and can be used for future fecundity studies on this stock. The results showed that FP was mainly positively related to fish length, but K and IH also contributed significantly to the variation in FP. The model predicted that fish with K=1·2 have a FP 51% higher than fish of the same LT with K=0·8. The prevalence of fecundity regulation by atresia was 5·8%, but it was found only in fish in the pre-spawning maturity stage and with low K. Temporal changes in biological features such as the length composition and individual body condition of eastern Baltic G. morhua, should be accounted for when estimating stock reproductive potential.

Description: The Baltic Sea is a dynamic environment responding to various drivers operating at different temporal and spatial scales. In response to climate change, the Baltic Sea is warming and the frequency of extreme climatic events is increasing (Lima & Wethey 2012, BACC 2008, Poloczanska et al. 2007). Coastal development, human population growth and globalization intensify stressors associated with human activities, such as nutrient loading, fisheries and proliferation of invasive and bloom-forming species. Such abrupt changes have unforeseen consequences for the biodiversity and the function of food webs and may result in loss of ecological key species, alteration and fragmentation of habitats. To mitigate undesired effects on the Baltic ecosystem, an efficient marine management will depend on the understanding of historical and current drivers, i.e. physical and chemical environmental conditions and human activities that precipitate pressures on the natural environment. This task examined a set of key interactions of selected natural and anthropogenic drivers in space and time, identified in Task 3.1 as well as WP1 and WP2 (e.g. physico-chemical features vs climate forcing; eutrophication vs oxygen deficiency vs bio-invasions; fisheries vs climate change impacts) by using overlay-mapping and sensitivity analyses. The benthic ecosystem models developed under Task 2.1 were used to investigate interactions between sea temperature and eutrophication for various depth strata in coastal (P9) and offshore areas (P1) of the Baltic Sea. This also included investigation on how the frequency and magnitude of deep-water inflow events determines volume and variance of salinity and temperature under the halocline, deep-water oxygen levels and sediment fluxes of nutrients, using observations and model results from 1850 to present (P1, P2, P6, P9, P12). The resulting synthesis on the nature and magnitude of different driver interactions will feed into all other tasks of this WP3 and WP2/WP4. Moreover, the results presented in this report improve the process-based and mechanistic understanding of environmental change in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, thereby fostering the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.