ALBERT

Description: In 2015, El Niño contributed to severe droughts in equatorial Asia (EA). The severe droughts enhanced fire activity in the dry season (June–November), leading to massive fire emissions of CO2 and aerosols. Based on large event attribution ensembles of the MIROC5 atmospheric global climate model, we suggest that historical anthropogenic warming increased the chances of meteorological droughts exceeding the 2015 observations in the EA area. We also investigate changes in drought in future climate simulations, in which prescribed sea surface temperature data have the same spatial patterns as the 2015 El Niño with long-term warming trends. Large probability increases of stronger droughts than the 2015 event are projected when events like the 2015 El Niño occur in the 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warmed climate ensembles according to the Paris Agreement goals. Further drying is projected in the 3.0 ∘C ensemble according to the current mitigation policies of nations. We use observation-based empirical functions to estimate burned area, fire CO2 emissions and fine (

Description: Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon), aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979–2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979–1998) and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999–2014). There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25) have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from TOVS to ATOVS observations. Temperature bias characteristics determined via comparisons with a reanalysis ensemble mean (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55) are similarly observed when compared with Aura HIRDLS and Aura MLS observations. There is good agreement among the NOAA TLS, SSU1, and SSU2 Climate Data Records and layer mean temperatures from the more recent reanalyses. Caution is advised for using reanalysis temperatures for trend detection and anomalies from a long climatology period as the quality and character of reanalyses may have changed over time.

Description: In light of the range in presently available observational, reanalysis and model data, we revisit the surface climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions from the end of the 19th century until present. We focus on the dynamically driven response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the radiative-driven tropical temperature response. Using 10 different reanalysis products and the Hadley Centre Sea Level Pressure observational dataset (HadSLP2) we confirm a positive tendency in the phase of the NAO during boreal winters following large volcanic eruptions, although we conclude that it is not as clear cut as the current literature suggests. While different reanalyses agree well on the sign of the surface volcanic NAO response for individual volcanoes, the spread in the response is often large (∼ 1/2 standard deviation). This inter-reanalysis spread is actually larger for the more recent volcanic eruptions, and in one case does not encompass observations (El Chichón). These are all in the satellite era and therefore assimilate more atmospheric data that may lead to a more complex interaction for the surface response. The phase of the NAO leads to a dynamically driven warm anomaly over northern Europe in winter, which is present in all datasets considered. The general cooling of the surface temperature due to reduced incoming shortwave radiation is therefore disturbed by dynamical impacts. In the tropics, where less dynamically driven influences are present, we confirm a predominant cooling after most but not all eruptions. All datasets agree well on the strength of the tropical response, with the observed and reanalysis response being statistically significant but the modelled response not being significant due to the high variability across models.

Description: Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales.

Description: This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterizing and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to the 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, western Europe and the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2.0 °C world, though the ensemble spread still allows for both wetting and drying responses.

Description: The structure of a screeching axisymmetric jet in the helical C mode at a nozzle pressure ratio of 3.4 issuing from a convergent nozzle is studied using high-resolution particle image velocimetry. Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to extract the dominant coherent structures within the jet. The first two modes produced by the POD are used to reconstruct a phase-averaged data sequence. A triple decomposition into mean, coherent and random velocity components is performed. The embedded shock structures within the jet are shown to strongly modulate the coherent axial stresses within the shear layer and to weakly modulate the random axial stresses. Analysis of the third and fourth moments of the velocity probability density function is used as an indicator of possible regions of shock-vortex interaction and thus screech tone generation. Peaks of kurtosis (flatness) occur at the second, third and fourth shock-boundary intersection points, with the radial position shifting towards the centreline with increasing downstream distance. Analysis of the coherent component of vorticity shows that the largest fluctuations in coherent vorticity occur at the high-speed side of the shear layer in an area extending from the second to the fourth shock cell. With reference to prior literature, the argument is made that it is this increased magnitude of coherent vorticity fluctuation that is the primary factor in the determination of which shock cells act as dominant screech sources. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.

Description: For the first time, a physical mechanism is identified to explain the phase lag term in Powell's impinging feedback loop equation (Powell, J. Acoust. Soc. Am., vol. 83 (2), 1988, pp. 515-533). Ultra-high-speed schlieren reveals a previously unseen periodic transient shock in the wall jet region of underexpanded impinging flows. The motion of this shock appears to be responsible for the production of the acoustic waves corresponding to the impingement tone. It is suggested that the delay between the inception of the shock and the formation of the acoustic wave explains the phase lag in the aeroacoustic feedback process. This suggestion is quantitatively supported through an assessment of Powell's feedback equation, using high-resolution particle image velocimetry and acoustic measurements. © 2017 Cambridge University Press.

Description: Experimental evidence is provided to demonstrate that the upstream-travelling waves in two jets screeching in the A1 and A2 modes are not free-stream acoustic waves, but rather waves with support within the jet. Proper orthogonal decomposition is used to educe the coherent fluctuations associated with jet screech from a set of randomly sampled velocity fields. A streamwise Fourier transform is then used to isolate components with positive and negative phase speeds. The component with negative phase speed is shown, by comparison with a vortex-sheet model, to resemble the upstream-travelling jet wave first studied by Tam & Hu (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 201, 1989, pp. 447-483). It is further demonstrated that screech tones are only observed over the frequency range where this upstream-travelling wave is propagative. © 2018 Cambridge University Press.

Description: Motivated by the success of wavepackets in modelling the noise from subsonic and perfectly expanded supersonic jets, we apply the wavepacket model to imperfectly expanded supersonic jets. Recent studies with subsonic jets have demonstrated the importance of capturing the 'jitter' of wavepackets in order to correctly predict the intensity of far-field sound. Wavepacket jitter may be statistically represented using a two-point coherence function; accurate prediction of noise requires identification of this coherence function. Following the analysis of Cavalieri & Agarwal (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 748, 2014. pp. 399-415), we extend their methodology to model the acoustic sources of broadband shock-associated noise in imperfectly expanded supersonic jets using cross-spectral densities of the turbulent and shock-cell quantities. The aim is to determine the relationship between wavepacket coherence-decay and far-field broadband shock-associated noise, using the model as a vehicle to explore the flow mechanisms at work. Unlike the subsonic case where inclusion of coherence decay amplifies the sound pressure level over the whole acoustic spectrum, we find that it does not play such a critical role in determining the peak sound amplitude for shock-cell noise. When higher-order shock-cell modes are used to reconstruct the acoustic spectrum at higher frequencies, however, the inclusion of a jittering wavepacket is necessary. These results suggest that the requirement for coherence decay identified in prior broadband shock-associated noise (BBSAN) models is in reality the statistical signature of jittering wavepackets. The results from this modelling approach suggest that nonlinear jittering effects of wavepackets need to be included in dynamic models for broadband shock-associated noise. © 2019 Cambridge University Press.

Description: The role of the external boundary conditions of the nozzle surface on the azimuthal mode selection of impinging supersonic jets is demonstrated for the first time. Jets emanating from thin-and infinite-lipped nozzles at a nozzle pressure ratio of and plate spacing of , where is the nozzle exit diameter, are investigated using high resolution particle image velocimetry (PIV) and acoustic measurements. Proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to the PIV fields and a difference in dominant instability mode is found. To investigate possible explanations for the change in instability mode, additional nozzle external boundary conditions are investigated, including the addition of acoustic dampening foam. A difference in acoustic feedback path is suggested to be the cause for the change in dominant azimuthal modes between the flows. This is due to the thin-lip case containing a feedback path that is concluded to be closed exclusively by a reflection from the nozzle base surface, rather than directly to the nozzle lip. The ability of the flow to form a feedback path that maximises the impingement tone gain is discussed with consideration of the numerous acoustic feedback paths possible for the given nozzle external boundary conditions. ©2019 Cambridge University Press.