Publication Date:
2015-10-27
Description:
Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This research reviewed the existing estimation methods of Rmax based on the central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over or underestimated Rmax because of the substantial variety of the data, though an average radius could be moderately estimated. Alternatively, we proposed an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 knot wind (R50). The data obtained during the passage of strong typhoons by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago enabled us to derive the following formula, Rmax = 0.23R50. Although this new method substantially improved the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, an estimation error was unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation from 2013 Typhoon Haiyan demonstrated a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations, independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over or underestimation of storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the reliability of storm surge prediction and contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the Western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines, and Vietnam.
Electronic ISSN:
2195-9269
Topics:
Geography
,
Geosciences
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