Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
An evaluation of the actual reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) assessments,
provided by existing numerical techniques, is mandatory to orientate new researches and
improvements. Two procedures devoted to this task are proposed, which are based on the
comparison of the hazard estimates with empirical observations (e.g. strong-motion data).
These procedures have been applied to the estimates provided by the methodology adopted
for most recent seismic hazard evaluations in Italy. The analysis shows that a significant
mismatch exists between peak ground acceleration values characterized by an exceedence
probability of 10 per cent in 30 yr and what has actually been observed at 68 accelerometric
stations located on stiff soil, where continuous seismicity monitoring has been performed in
the last 30 yr. Although this finding should be considered with caution, it suggests that a future
re-examination of the adopted PSH computational model could be useful to avoid possible
underestimates of seismic hazard in Italy.
Description:
Published
Description:
1088–1094
Description:
4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
probabilistic seismic hazard estimates
;
statistical seismology
;
Italy
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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