ALBERT

Description: We present the development and validation of a numerical modeling suite for bubble and droplet dynamics of multiphase plumes in the environment. This modeling suite includes real-fluid equations of state, Lagrangian particle tracking, and two different integral plume models: an Eulerian model for a double-plume integral model in quiescent stratification and a Lagrangian integral model for multiphase plumes in stratified crossflows. Here, we report a particle tracking algorithm for dispersed-phase particles within the Lagrangian integral plume model and a comprehensive validation of the Lagrangian plume model for single- and multiphase buoyant jets. The model utilizes literature values for all entrainment and spreading coefficients and has one remaining calibration parameter (Formula presented.), which reduces the buoyant force of dispersed phase particles as they approach the edge of a Lagrangian plume element, eventually separating from the plume as it bends over in a crossflow. We report the calibrated form (Formula presented.), where b is the plume half-width, and r is the distance of a particle from the plume centerline. We apply the validated modeling suite to simulate two test cases of a subsea oil well blowout in a stratification-dominated crossflow. These tests confirm that errors from overlapping plume elements in the Lagrangian integral model during intrusion formation for a weak crossflow are negligible for predicting intrusion depth and the fate of oil droplets in the plume. The Lagrangian integral model has the added advantages of being able to account for entrainment from an arbitrary crossflow, predict the intrusion of small gas bubbles and oil droplets when appropriate, and track the pathways of individual bubbles and droplets after they separate from the main plume or intrusion layer.

Description: Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) is being explored on both economic and environmental grounds in many traditional aquaculture regions. To test a variety of suitable macroalgae species and management scenarios, a numerical model is developed to quantify the remediation of dissolved nutrients and production of macroalgae near a nutrient source. Differences in the morphological, physiological, and economic characteristics of different macroalgae species can provide flexibility when considering the cost and benefit of farming macroalgae. Results show that of the three species studied, Macrocystis pyrifera removed 75 % of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) input from a point source, while Porphyra umbilicalis and Ulva lactuca removed 5 %. Both M. pyrifera and P. umbilicalis have reduced bioremediation capacity at increasing flow rates. U. lactuca showed increased bioremediation potential as flow rate increased from low to moderate flows. Increasing the optical depth increased the bioremediation potential of M. pyrifera for moderate values of the light attenuation coefficient, whereas bioremediation was unaffected by optical depth for both U. lactuca and P. umbilicalis. Harvesting increased bioremediation capacity of all species by up to 25-fold dependent on the establishment phase and harvesting frequency. We conclude that the choice of macroalgae species greatly affects the success of IMTA and that both harvesting and farm arrangements can be used to greatly optimize bioremediation.

Description: Whilst a range of animals have been shown to respond behaviourally to components of the Earth’s magnetic field, evidence of the value of this sensory perception for small animals advected by strong flows (wind/ocean currents) is equivocal. We added geomagnetic directional swimming behaviour for North Atlantic loggerhead turtle hatchlings (Carettacaretta) into a high-resolution (1/4°) global general circulation ocean model to simulate 2,925-year-long hatchling trajectories comprising 355,875 locations. A little directional swimming (1–3 h per day) had a major impact on trajectories; simulated hatchlings travelled further south into warmer water. As a result, thermal elevation of hatchling metabolic rates was estimated to be between 63.3 and 114.5% after 220 days. We show that even small animals in strong flows can benefit from geomagnetic orientation and thus the potential implications of directional swimming for other taxa may be broad.

Description: Although long-distance transport of marine organisms is constrained by numerous oceanic and biological factors, some species have evolved life-histories reliant on such movements. We examine the factors that promote long-distance transport in a transoceanic migrant, young loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), from the southeastern U.S. Empirical data from near-surface buoys and simulations in two ocean circulation models indicated that passive drifters are often retained for long periods shoreward of oceanic fronts that delineate coastal and offshore waters. Further simulations revealed that offshore swimming aided newly hatched turtles in moving past fronts and increased turtles’ probability of survival, reaching distant foraging grounds, and encountering favorable temperatures. Swimming was most beneficial in regions that were more favorable under scenarios assuming passive drift. These results have broad implications for understanding the movement processes of many marine species, highlighting likely retention of more planktonic species and potential for dispersal in more nektonic species.

Description: Climate change resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 is having detrimental effects on the Earth system. Societies have recognized that anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be reduced and ultimately cease to avoid potentially catastrophic impacts. However, at present timely and necessary emissions reductions appear to be very difficult to achieve. To compliment less than sufficient emissions reductions carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere is suggested. CDR is proposed through increasing natural carbon sinks, engineering new carbon sinks, or combing natural uptake with engineered storage. Initial studies demonstrate that removal of CO2 from the atmosphere will elicit a carbon cycle response with a “rebound” and other feedbacks generally opposing and so reducing the net-removal. We review this work into the carbon cycle response to CDR in general and for different proposed CDR methods and discuss future research needs. Understanding these dynamics and their uncertainties have important implications for quantifying the efficacy of CDR.

Description: Climate change is altering oceanic conditions in a complex manner, and the concurrent amendment of multiple properties will modify environmental stress for primary producers. So far, global modelling studies have focused largely on how alteration of individual properties will affect marine life. Here, we use global modelling simulations in conjunction with rotated factor analysis to express model projections in terms of regional trends in concomitant changes to biologically influential multi-stressors. Factor analysis demonstrates that regionally distinct patterns of complex oceanic change are evident globally. Preliminary regional assessments using published evidence of phytoplankton responses to complex change reveal a wide range of future responses to interactive multi-stressors with 〈20–300% shifts in phytoplankton physiological rates, and many unexplored potential interactions. In a future ocean, provinces will encounter different permutations of change that will probably alter the dominance of key phytoplankton groups and modify regional productivity, ecosystem structure and biogeochemistry. Consideration of regionally distinct multi-stressor patterns can help guide laboratory and field studies as well as the interpretation of interactive multi-stressors in global models.

Description: There are over 1000 foraminiferal species presently living in marine environments, but relatively few of these can be used as direct indicators of sea level. We detail here certain assemblages occupying marsh environments that can be used for that purpose. Marsh foraminiferal assemblages have been shown to occur worldwide within narrowly defined vertical zones some of which extend less than 10 cm in total vertical range. These assemblage zones, once known, can be relocated in paleo-marsh deposits and accurately related to paleo-sea level. The key to success of these organisms as sea-level indicators is that their primary controlling factor appears to be elevation above mean sea level. Other foraminiferal assemblages are controlled by a series of parameters (eg. salinity, temperature, dissolved O2, etc.) which often have no direct relationship with actual water depth. Under appropriate circumstances, some information concerning sea level can be derived from other foraminiferal assemblages using indirect means. For instance areas which have undergone substantial emergence often contain small basins which, prior to emergence, were marine. The marine sediments at the bottom can be identified using foraminifera and the sill elevation of the basin can then be related to some prior sea-level stand. Both these methods have imperfections, but in areas where both emergence and submergence have taken place they can be combined to obtain a relatively complete sea-level history.

Description: Biologists studying animals in their natural environment are increasingly using sensors such as accelerometers in animal-attached ‘smart’ tags because it is widely acknowledged that this approach can enhance the understanding of ecological and behavioural processes. The potential of such tags is tempered by the difficulty of extracting animal behaviour from the sensors which is currently primarily dependent on the manual inspection of multiple time series graphs. This is time consuming and error-prone for the domain expert and is now the limiting factor for realising the value of tags in this area. We introduce TimeClassifier, a visual analytic system for the classification of time series data for movement ecologists. We deploy our system with biologists and report two real-world case studies of its use

Description: The useful energy services and energy density value of fossil carbon fuels could be retained for longer timescales into the future if their combustion is balanced by CO2 recapture and storage. We assess the global balance between fossil carbon supply and the sufficiency (size) and capability (technology, security) of candidate carbon stores. A hierarchy of value for extraction-to-storage pairings is proposed, which is augmented by classification of CO2 containment as temporary (〈1,000 yr) or permanent (〉100,000 yr). Using temporary stores is inefficient and defers an intergenerational problem. Permanent storage capacity is adequate to technically match current fossil fuel reserves. However, rates of storage creation cannot balance current and expected rates of fossil fuel extraction and CO2 consequences. Extraction of conventional natural gas is uniquely holistic because it creates the capacity to re-inject an equivalent tonnage of carbon for storage into the same reservoir and can re-use gas-extraction infrastructure for storage. By contrast, balancing the extraction of coal, oil, biomass and unconventional fossil fuels requires the engineering and validation of additional carbon storage. Such storage is, so far, unproven in sufficiency.

Description: This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.