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  • Delay coordinate embedding  (1)
  • PMOC  (1)
  • American Geophysical Union  (2)
  • John Wiley & Sons
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08002, doi:10.1029/2003JC002148.
    Description: This study establishes a series of tests to examine the relative utility of nonlinear time series analysis for oceanic data. The performance of linear autoregressive models and nonlinear delay coordinate embedding methods are compared for three numerical and two observational data sets. The two observational data sets are (1) an hourly near-bottom pressure time series from the South Atlantic Bight and (2) an hourly current-meter time series from the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). The nonlinear methods give significantly better predictions than the linear methods when the underlying dynamics have low dimensionality. When the dimensionality is high, the utility of nonlinear methods is limited by the length and quality of the time series. On the application side we mainly focus on the MAB data set. We find that the slope velocities are much less predictable than shelf velocities. Predictability on the slope after several hours is no better than the statistical mean. On the other hand, significant predictability of shelf velocities can be obtained for up to at least 12 hours.
    Description: This research was supported by Office of Naval Research grants N00014-01-1-0260, N00014-92-J-1481, and N10014-99-1-0258.
    Keywords: Predictability ; Delay coordinate embedding ; Shelf break
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wang, J., Ma, Q., Wang, F., Lu, Y., & Pratt, L. J. Seasonal variation of the deep limb of the Pacific Meridional Overturning circulation at Yap-Mariana junction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125(7), (2020): e2019JC016017, doi:10.1029/2019JC016017.
    Description: This study reveals the seasonal variability of the lower and upper deep branches of the Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (L‐PMOC and U‐PMOC) in the Yap‐Mariana Junction (YMJ) channel, a major gateway for deep flow into the western Pacific. On the western side of the YMJ channel, mooring observations in 2017 and in 1997 show the seasonal phase of the L‐PMOC at depths of 3,800–4,400 m: strong northward flow with speed exceeding 20 cm s−1 and lasting from December to next May and weak flow during the following 6 months. On the eastern side of the channel, mooring observations during 2014–2017 show two southward deep flows with broadly seasonal phases, one being the return flow of L‐PMOC below ~4,000 m and with the same phase of L‐PMOC but reduced magnitude. The second, shallower, southward deep flow corresponds to the U‐PMOC observed within 3,000–3,800 m and with opposite phase of L‐PMOC, that is, strong (weak) southward flow appearing during June–November (December–May). Seasonal variations of the L‐PMOC and U‐PMOC are accompanied by the seasonal intrusions of the Lower and Upper Circumpolar Waters (LCPW and UCPW) in lower and upper deep layers, which change the isopycnal structure and the deep currents in a way consistent with geostrophic balance.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 91958204 and 41776022), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDA22000000), the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS (grant QYZDB‐SSW‐SYS034). F. Wang thanks the support from the Scientific and Technological Innovation Project by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (grant 2016ASKJ12), the National Program on Global Change and Air‐Sea Interaction (grant GASI‐IPOVAI‐01‐01), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 41730534 and 41421005). L. Pratt gratefully acknowledges the support by NSF (grant OCE‐1657870). Jianing Wang and Qiang Ma contributed equally to this work.
    Keywords: Seasonal variability ; Deep currents ; PMOC ; Mooring observation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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