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  • 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate  (3)
  • Diffusion  (2)
  • American Meteorological Society  (5)
  • American Chemical Society
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(2), (2020): 415-437, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0019.1.
    Description: Results are presented from two dye release experiments conducted in the seasonal thermocline of the Sargasso Sea, one in a region of low horizontal strain rate (~10−6 s−1), the second in a region of intermediate horizontal strain rate (~10−5 s−1). Both experiments lasted ~6 days, covering spatial scales of 1–10 and 1–50 km for the low and intermediate strain rate regimes, respectively. Diapycnal diffusivities estimated from the two experiments were κz = (2–5) × 10−6 m2 s−1, while isopycnal diffusivities were κH = (0.2–3) m2 s−1, with the range in κH being less a reflection of site-to-site variability, and more due to uncertainties in the background strain rate acting on the patch combined with uncertain time dependence. The Site I (low strain) experiment exhibited minimal stretching, elongating to approximately 10 km over 6 days while maintaining a width of ~5 km, and with a notable vertical tilt in the meridional direction. By contrast, the Site II (intermediate strain) experiment exhibited significant stretching, elongating to more than 50 km in length and advecting more than 150 km while still maintaining a width of order 3–5 km. Early surveys from both experiments showed patchy distributions indicative of small-scale stirring at scales of order a few hundred meters. Later surveys show relatively smooth, coherent distributions with only occasional patchiness, suggestive of a diffusive rather than stirring process at the scales of the now larger patches. Together the two experiments provide important clues as to the rates and underlying processes driving diapycnal and isopycnal mixing at these scales.
    Description: Results are presented from two dye release experiments conducted in the seasonal thermocline of the Sargasso Sea, one in a region of low horizontal strain rate (~10−6 s−1), the second in a region of intermediate horizontal strain rate (~10−5 s−1). Both experiments lasted ~6 days, covering spatial scales of 1–10 and 1–50 km for the low and intermediate strain rate regimes, respectively. Diapycnal diffusivities estimated from the two experiments were κz = (2–5) × 10−6 m2 s−1, while isopycnal diffusivities were κH = (0.2–3) m2 s−1, with the range in κH being less a reflection of site-to-site variability, and more due to uncertainties in the background strain rate acting on the patch combined with uncertain time dependence. The Site I (low strain) experiment exhibited minimal stretching, elongating to approximately 10 km over 6 days while maintaining a width of ~5 km, and with a notable vertical tilt in the meridional direction. By contrast, the Site II (intermediate strain) experiment exhibited significant stretching, elongating to more than 50 km in length and advecting more than 150 km while still maintaining a width of order 3–5 km. Early surveys from both experiments showed patchy distributions indicative of small-scale stirring at scales of order a few hundred meters. Later surveys show relatively smooth, coherent distributions with only occasional patchiness, suggestive of a diffusive rather than stirring process at the scales of the now larger patches. Together the two experiments provide important clues as to the rates and underlying processes driving diapycnal and isopycnal mixing at these scales.
    Description: 2020-08-06
    Keywords: Ocean ; Atlantic Ocean ; Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Dispersion ; Mixing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Description: Published
    Description: 4622–4641
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. We here examine the influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea-surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. We apply two tracking schemes to these data and also analyze the tracks provided by each modelling group. Our results indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, we find that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenisation in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. Our results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.
    Description: Published
    Description: 9197–9213
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; tracking schemes ; climate change ; hurricanes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1610–1631, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0047.1.
    Description: The use of a measure to diagnose submesoscale isopycnal diffusivity by determining the best match between observations of a tracer and simulations with varying small-scale diffusivities is tested. Specifically, the robustness of a “roughness” measure to discriminate between tracer fields experiencing different submesoscale isopycnal diffusivities and advected by scaled altimetric velocity fields is investigated. This measure is used to compare numerical simulations of the tracer released at a depth of about 1.5 km in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES) field campaign with observations of the tracer taken on DIMES cruises. The authors find that simulations with an isopycnal diffusivity of ~20 m2 s−1 best match observations in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), rising to ~20–50 m2 s−1 through Drake Passage, representing submesoscale processes and any mesoscale processes unresolved by the advecting altimetry fields. The roughness measure is demonstrated to be a statistically robust way to estimate a small-scale diffusivity when measurements are relatively sparse in space and time, although it does not work if there are too few measurements overall. The planning of tracer measurements during a cruise in order to maximize the robustness of the roughness measure is also considered. It is found that the robustness is increased if the spatial resolution of tracer measurements is increased with the time since tracer release.
    Description: We thank the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation for funding the DIMES project.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diffusion ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Isopycnal mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Tracers ; Models and modeling ; Model comparison ; Tracers
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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