ALBERT

Description: To better understand recruitment variability in small pelagic fish like sprat, it is important to know when during the extended spawning season the successful recruits are predominantly produced and which environmental factors determine potential survival windows. Here, we inferred the temporal origin of 2-year classes (2002–2003) of western and central Baltic sprat by means of otolith microstructure analysis, and found that in both years recruits mainly originated from the summer months June and July. In both years, this period coincided with temperature conditions in the surface layer of 〉12 °C and peak seasonal abundance of the largest copepod stages of Acartia spp., the major prey item of sprat larvae. The peaks in seasonal sprat egg abundance, however, occurred in April 2002 and March 2003 and therefore about 1–2 months earlier than the long-term mean spawning peak of sprat in this area (end of May/beginning of June). We hypothesize that increased temperatures in the bottom layer of the Baltic, where the pre-spawning sprat stock concentrates during winter months, potentially caused this shift in sprat spawning patterns, although early spring temperatures and feeding conditions in upper water layers were still unfavourable for larval survival. Sprat recruitment, however, was comparatively strong in both 2002 and 2003, suggesting that summer born individuals had high enough survival rates to compensate for the spawning shift, possibly due to high summer temperatures, limited dispersion, and low predation mortalities by Baltic cod as the major predator of sprat. Recruits were on average younger in 2003 than 2002, yet length distributions in October were almost identical, likely because a period of substantially higher temperatures in July/August 2003 promoted faster initial (larval) growth of survivors. Given the strength of the 2003 year class, in spite of lower overall prey concentrations in 2003 than 2002 in the study area, our findings appear to emphasise the paramount importance of summer temperatures as the recruitment determinant in Baltic sprat

Description: Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation patterns on the overlap of Baltic cod larvae with their prey. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to analyse spatio-temporally resolved drift patterns of larval Baltic cod. A coefficient of overlap between modelled larval and idealized prey distributions indicated the probability of predator–prey overlap, dependent on the hatching time of cod larvae. By performing model runs for the years 1979–1998 investigated the intra- and interannual variability of potential spatial overlap between predator and prey. Assuming uniform prey distributions, we generally found the overlap to have decreased since the mid-1980s, but with the highest variability during the 1990s. Seasonally, predator–prey overlap on the Baltic cod spawning grounds was highest in summer and lowest at the end of the cod spawning season. Horizontally variable prey distributions generally resulted in decreased overlap coefficients. Finally, we related variations in overlap patterns to the variability of Baltic cod recruitment success.

Description: Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However, bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater, importance. In such dynamically changing environments, recent management success does not necessarily guarantee future sustainability.

Description: Ontogenetic and diurnal vertical migration patterns of Baltic sprat larvae were investigated for the periods 1989–1990 and 1998–2002. Comparison of the results led to the hypothesis that the diel vertical migration behaviour of sprat larvae 〉10 mm has changed. In 1989 and 1990, sprat larvae migrated to the surface at night, whereas they stayed 30–50 m deep by day. From 1998 to 2002, sprat larvae showed no signs of diel vertical migration, remaining in warmer, near-surface water by day and night. This behavioural change coincided with a more general change in the Baltic ecosystem, i.e. an increase in near-surface temperature and a general increase in abundance of the major prey organism (Acartia spp.) of Baltic sprat larvae, with more pronounced aggregation in surface waters.