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  • 1
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    A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 287 (2011): 14-30, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2011.07.001.
    Description: A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Recent deposition of sand layers in the upper sediments of the pond was found to be contemporaneous with significant, historic storm surges at the site modeled using SLOSH and the Best Track, post-1851 A.D. dataset. Using the historic portion of the record for calibration, paleohurricane deposits were identified by sand content and dated using radiocarbon-based age models. Marine-indicative foraminifera, some originating at least 5 km offshore, were present in several modern and ancient storm deposits. The presence and long-term preservation of offshore foraminifera suggest that this site and others like it may yield promising microfossil-based paleohurricane reconstructions in the future. Due to the sub-decadal (~ 7 year) resolution of the record and the site’s high susceptibility to hurricane-generated storm surges, the average, local frequency of recorded events, approximately 3.9 storms per century, is greater than that of previously published paleohurricane records from the region. The high incidence of recorded events permitted a time series of local hurricane frequency during the last five millennia to be constructed. Variability in the frequency of the largest storm layers was found to be greater than what would likely occur by chance alone, with intervals of both anomalously high and low storm frequency identified. However, the rate at which smaller layers were deposited was relatively constant over the last five millennia. This may suggest that significant variability in hurricane frequency has occurred only in the highest magnitude events. The frequency of high magnitude events peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago. High magnitude events were relatively rare with about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 to 1600 years ago and between 400 to 150 years ago. A marked decline in the number of large storm deposits, which began around 600 years ago, has persisted through present with below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.
    Description: Funding for this research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Coastal Ocean Institute. the model. The Florida State University Marine Laboratory provided lodging during fieldwork. This research was completed during an American Meteorological Society Graduate Fellowship, National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship and Coastal Ocean Institute Fellowship. This work was further supported by National Science Foundation award #OCE-0903020.
    Keywords: Paleotempestology ; Paleohurricane ; Hurricane ; Tropical cyclone ; Sinkhole ; Storm surge ; SLOSH ; Gulf of Mexico ; Apalachee Bay ; Holocene
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
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    Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 3
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    Tropical cyclone wind speed constraints from resultant storm surge deposition : a 2500 year reconstruction of hurricane activity from St. Marks, FL (2013)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 14 (2013): 2993–3008, doi:10.1002/ggge.20217.
    Description: Recent work suggests that the patterns of intense (≥category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane strikes over the last few millennia might differ from that of overall hurricane activity during this period. Prior studies typically rely on assigning a threshold storm intensity required to produce a sedimentological overwash signal at a particular coastal site based on historical analogs. Here, we improve on this approach by presenting a new inverse-model technique that constrains the most likely wind speeds required to transport the maximum grain size within resultant storm deposits. As a case study, the technique is applied to event layers observed in sediments collected from a coastal sinkhole in northwestern Florida. We find that (1) simulated wind speeds for modern deposits are consistent with the intensities for historical hurricanes affecting the site, (2) all deposits throughout the ∼2500 year record are capable of being produced by hurricanes, and (3) a period of increased intense hurricane frequency is observed between ∼1700 and ∼600 years B.P. and decreased intense storm frequency is observed from ∼2500 to ∼1700 and ∼600 years B.P. to the present. This is consistent with prior reconstructions from nearby sites. Changes in the frequency of intense hurricane strikes may be related to the degree of penetration of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2014-02-22
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Inverse-modeling ; Sedimentology
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 3 (2015): 49–65, doi:10.1002/2014EF000274.
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane–induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Description: Funding was provided by US National Science Foundation (awards 0903020 and 1356708), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS), US Department of Energy National Institute for Climate Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (award NA11OAR431010), and the Dalio Explore Fund.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Climate change ; Holocene ; Common era ; Sea surface temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    The mighty Susquehanna-extreme floods in Eastern North America during the past two millennia (2019)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46(6), (2019):3398-3407, doi:10.1029/2018GL080890.
    Description: The hazards posed by infrequent major floods to communities along the Susquehanna River and the ecological health of Chesapeake Bay remain largely unconstrained due to the short length of streamgage records. Here we develop a history of high‐flow events on the Susquehanna River during the late Holocene from flood deposits contained in MD99‐2209, a sediment core recovered in 26 m of water from Chesapeake Bay near Annapolis, Maryland, United States. We identify coarse‐grained deposits left by Hurricane Agnes (1972) and the Great Flood of 1936, as well as during three intervals that predate instrumental flood records (~1800–1500, 1300–1100, and 400–0 CE). Comparison to sedimentary proxy data (pollen and ostracode Mg/Ca ratios) from the same core site indicates that prehistoric flooding on the Susquehanna often accompanied cooler‐than‐usual winter/spring temperatures near Chesapeake Bay—typical of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation and conditions thought to foster hurricane landfalls along the East Coast.
    Description: This work was supported by the USGS Land Change Science Program and Northeast Region. We appreciated the assistance of Brian Buczkowski, Andrew Zimmerman, and John Bratton in locating archived core materials and data sets. We thank John Jackson and Bryan Landacre for assistance with XRD and pollen analysis, respectively. We thank two anonymous reviewers, Lynn Wingard (USGS), and Rob Stamm (USGS) for their helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Data generated for this report can be found in the accompanying supporting information.
    Description: 2019-08-19
    Keywords: Hurricane ; Flood ; Holocene ; East coast ; River ; Chesapeake
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  • 6
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    Pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last 500 years (2021)
    MDPI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Christie, M. A., Bernhardt, C. E., Parnell, A. C., Shaw, T. A., Khan, N. S., Corbett, D. R., Garcia-Artola, A., Clear, J., Walker, J. S., Donnelly, J. P., Hasse, T. R., & Horton, B. P. Pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last 500 years. Water, 13(3), (2021): 362, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030362.
    Description: Building robust age–depth models to understand climatic and geologic histories from coastal sedimentary archives often requires composite chronologies consisting of multi-proxy age markers. Pollen chronohorizons derived from a known change in vegetation are important for age–depth models, especially those with other sparse or imprecise age markers. However, the accuracy of pollen chronohorizons compared to other age markers and the impact of pollen chronohorizons on the precision of age–depth models, particularly in salt marsh environments, is poorly understood. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from eight coastal wetlands (salt marshes and mangroves) along the Atlantic Coast of the United States (U.S.) from Florida to Connecticut to define the age and uncertainty of 17 pollen chronohorizons. We found that 13 out of 17 pollen chronohorizons were consistent when compared to other age markers (radiocarbon, radionuclide 137Cs and pollution markers). Inconsistencies were likely related to the hyperlocality of pollen chronohorizons, mixing of salt marsh sediment, reworking of pollen from nearby tidal flats, misidentification of pollen signals, and inaccuracies in or misinterpretation of other age markers. Additionally, in a total of 24 models, including one or more pollen chronohorizons, increased precision (up to 41 years) or no change was found in 18 models.
    Description: MC was funded by the National Science Foundation EAR 1624551. NSK, TS, and BPH were funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2018-T2-1-030 and MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This article is a contribution to International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia”. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 349. AP wishes to acknowledge the funding Science Foundation Ireland Career Development Award (17/CDA/4695); an investigator award (16/IA/4520); a Marine Research Programme funded by the Irish Government, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/CC/18/01); European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 818144; and SFI Research Centre awards 16/RC/3872 and 12/RC/2289_P2.
    Keywords: Pollen ; Age–depth models ; Geochronology ; Holocene ; Coastal wetlands
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13,000 yr near the Hudson River watershed, USA (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Research 75 (2011): 523-530, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2011.01.006.
    Description: Sediment and ground-penetrating radar data from Davis Pond near the Hudson River valley reveal past droughts in a historically humid region that presently supplies water to millions of people in and around New York City. A minimum of eleven sandy paleoshoreline deposits in the lake date from 13.4-0.6 cal ka BP. The deposits span 1500 to 200 years between bracketing radiocarbon dates, and intrude into lacustrine silts up to 9.0 m below the modern lake surface in a transect of six cores. Three lowstands, ca. 13.4-10.9, 9.2 and 8.2 cal ka BP indicate low regional moisture balance when low temperatures affected the North Atlantic region. Consistent with insolation trends, water levels rose from ca. 8.0 cal ka BP to present, but five low stands interrupted the rise and are likely associated with ocean-atmosphere interactions. Similar to evidence from other studies, the data from Davis Pond indicate repeated multi-century periods of prolonged or frequent droughts super-imposed on long-term regional trends toward high water levels. The patterns indicate that water supplies in this heavily populated region have continuously varied at multiple time scales, and confirm that humid regions such as the northeastern USA are more prone to severe drought than historically expected.
    Description: We thank The Ocean and Climate Change Institute at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NSF Earth System History program grants (EAR-0602380 to J. Donnelly and EAR-0602408 to B. Shuman) for supporting this research.
    Keywords: Lake level ; Northeastern USA ; Hydroclimate ; Holocene
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Centennial-to-millennial hydrologic trends and variability along the North Atlantic Coast, USA, during the Holocene (2014)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 4300–4307, doi:10.1002/2014GL060183.
    Description: Geophysical and sedimentary records from five lakes in Massachusetts reveal regionally coherent hydrologic variability during the Holocene. All of the lakes have risen since ~9.0 ka, but multicentury droughts after 5.6 ka repeatedly lowered their water levels. Quantified water level histories from the three best-studied lakes share 〉70% of their reconstructed variance. Four prominent low-water phases at 4.9–4.6, 4.2–3.9, 2.9–2.1, and 1.3–1.2 ka were synchronous across coastal lakes, even after accounting for age uncertainties. The droughts also affected sites up to ~200 km inland, but water level changes at 5.6–4.9 ka appear out of phase between inland and coastal lakes. During the enhanced multicentury variability after ~5.6 ka, droughts coincided with cooling in Greenland and may indicate circulation changes across the North Atlantic region. Overall, the records demonstrate that current water levels are exceptionally high and confirm the sensitivity of water resources in the northeast U.S. to climate change.
    Description: The National Science Foundation (EAR-0602408, EAR- 1036191, and DEB-0816731 to Shuman; EAR-0602380 to Donnelly) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Ocean and Climate Change Institute (Donnelly) funded this research.
    Description: 2014-12-25
    Keywords: Holocene ; Paleohydrology ; Northeast U.S. ; Ground-penetrating radar ; Lake levels ; Drought
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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