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  • Articles  (32)
  • 2010-2014  (32)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-11-10
    Description: Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree-day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 GCM projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time-series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13–35% during 2011–2050 relative to the average during 1961–2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011–2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significantly increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-02-19
    Description: A plume of ultrafine particles was observed downwind of the Karlsruhe city and industrial area during the COPS/TRACKS Lagrangian airborne experiment in summer 2007. These ultrafine particles were identified as nucleation-generated aerosols from emissions of a coal-fired power plant and an adjacent refinery, the two main emitters of sulphur dioxide in the area. Modelling the production and growth of aerosols with the COSMO-ART model required, in agreement with the known emission sources, a strong elevated source of sulphur dioxide to explain the temporal evolution of the particle plume. The power plant at Karlsruhe Rheinhafen emits from a 233 m high chimney. The ultrafine particles produced from these fossil-fuel-related sources were the dominant fraction of all ultrafine particles in the rural area of the Kraichgau downwind of Karlsruhe, exceeding all other anthropogenic sources and are suspected of being the major contribution to the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) on a regional scale. Compared to previous investigations on the sulphur chemistry in power-plant plumes, emissions from this power plant, which is equipped with modern stack-gas cleaning technology, had a higher yield of nucleation-mode aerosols as CCN precursors per emitted sulphur dioxide mass. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2011-09-03
    Description: The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and are likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi-arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long-term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree-day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree-day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area-volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub-basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2011-09-03
    Description: The glacier mass balance, area change, and glacier runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and the Beida River Basin (BRB) are estimated for the period from 1961 to 2006 by employing a modified monthly degree-day model. Comparisons between the simulated and observed mass balance, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier runoff suggest that the model can be used to analyze the long-term changes of glacier mass balance and runoff in the YRB and the BRB. The glacier mass balances of the YRB and the BYB both have a significantly decreasing trend with −4.39 mm a -1 and −8.15 mm a -1 from 1961 to 2006 owing to significantly increased ablation caused by increasing summer air temperatures, especially since 1996. The total runoff in glacier areas has a significant increasing trend with 0.23 × 10 8  m 3 a -1 and 0.02 × 10 8  m 3 a -1 in the YRB and the BRB, respectively. By comparing the mean mass balance during 1961 to 1986 and that during 1987 to 2006, the sensitivity of the glacier mass balance to temperature of the BRB is 0.33 m a -1  °C, nearly twice as much as that of the YRB 0.16 m a -1  °C. The primary cause of this difference of glacier temperature sensitivity in the YRB and the BRB is that the glacier elevation band area weighted altitude of the YRB is about 700 m higher than that of BRB. The glacier elevation band area weighted summer air temperature in the YRB is around 2 °C lower than that of the BRB. Therefore, the annual positive degree day of the YRB and the BRB increase by about 21.0 °C and 77.3 °C respectively when the summer air temperature increases by 1 °C , resulting into more glacier ablation and runoff in the BRB than in the YRB. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2013-05-18
    Description: [1]  To assess the robustness of projected changes of the hydrological cycle simulated by an Earth system model (ESM), it is fundamental to validate the ESM and to characterize its major deficits. As the hydrological cycle is closely coupled to the energy cycle, a common large-scale evaluation of these fundamental components of the Earth system is highly beneficial, even though this has been rarely done up to now. Consequently, the purpose of the present study is the combined evaluation of land surface water and energy fluxes from the newest ESM version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM), which was used to produce an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. With regard to energy fluxes, we especially make use of recent satellite data sets. Additionally, MPI-ESM results are compared with CMIP3 results from the predecessor of MPI-ESM, ECHAM5/MPIOM, as well as to results from the atmosphere/land part of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6/JSBACH) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Analyses focus on regions where notable differences occur between the two ESM versions as well as between the fully coupled and the uncoupled SST-driven simulations. In general, our results show a considerable improvement of MPI-ESM in simulating surface shortwave radiation fluxes. The precipitation of the fully coupled simulations notably differs from those of the SST-forced simulations over a few river catchments. Over the Amazon catchment, the coupling to the ocean leads to a large negative precipitation bias, while for the Ganges/Brahmaputra, the coupling significantly improves the simulated precipitation.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2011-11-29
    Description: Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree-day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%-35% during 2011-2050 relative to the average during 1961-2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011-2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV) of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture). The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2011-09-28
    Description: The glacier mass balance, area change, and glacier runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and the Beida River Basin (BRB) were estimated from 1961 to 2006 by employing a modified monthly degree-day model. Comparisons between the simulated and observed mass balance, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier runoff suggest that the model can be used to analyze the long-term changes of glacier mass balance and runoff in the YRB and the BRB. The glacier mass balances of the YRB and the BYB both have a significantly decreasing trend with -4.39mm a -1 and -8.15mm a -1 from 1961 to 2006 because of a significant increase in ablation caused by increasing summer air temperatures, especially since 1996. The total runoff in glacier areas has a significant increasing trend with 0.23×10 8m 3 a -1 and 0.02×10 8m 3 a -1 in the YRB and the BRB, respectively. By comparing the mean mass balance during the period 1961 to 1986 with that of the 1987 to 2006, the BRB glacier mass balance's sensitivity to temperature is at 0.33m a -1°C, nearly twice as much as that of the YRB at 0.16m a -1°C. The difference between the glacier temperature sensitivity in the YRB and the BRB is primarily because the glacier elevation band area weighted altitude of the YRB is about 700m higher than that of BRB. The glacier elevation band area weighted summer air temperature in the YRB is around 2°C lower than that of the BRB. Therefore, the annual positive degree-day of the YRB and the BRB increases by about 21.0°C and 77.3°C respectively when the summer air temperature increases by 1°C, resulting into more glacier ablation and runoff in the BRB than in the YRB. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2011-10-04
    Description: The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi-arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long-term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree-day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree-day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area-volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub-basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long-term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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