ALBERT

Description: Planktonic foraminifera preserved in marine sediments archive the physical and chemical conditions under which they built their shells. To interpret the paleoceanographic information contained in fossil foraminifera, the recorded proxy signals have to be attributed to the habitat and life cycle characteristics of individual species. Much of our knowledge on habitat depth is based on indirect methods, which reconstruct the depth at which the largest portion of the shell has been calcified. However, habitat depth can be best studied by direct observations in stratified plankton nets. Here we present a synthesis of living planktonic foraminifera abundance data in vertically resolved plankton net hauls taken in the eastern North Atlantic during 12 oceanographic campaigns between 1995 and 2012. Live (cytoplasm-bearing) specimens were counted for each depth interval and the vertical habitat at each station was expressed as average living depth (ALD). This allows us to differentiate species showing an ALD consistently in the upper 100 m (e.g., Globigerinoides ruber white and pink), indicating a shallow habitat; species occurring from the surface to the subsurface (e.g., Globigerina bulloides, Globorotalia inflata, Globorotalia truncatulinoides); and species inhabiting the subsurface (e.g., Globorotalia scitula and Globorotalia hirsuta). For 17 species with variable ALD, we assessed whether their depth habitat at a given station could be predicted by mixed layer (ML) depth, temperature in the ML and chlorophyll a concentration in the ML. The influence of seasonal and lunar cycle on the depth habitat was also tested using periodic regression. In 11 out of the 17 tested species, ALD variation appears to have a predictable component. All of the tested parameters were significant in at least one case, with both seasonal and lunar cyclicity as well as the environmental parameters explaining up to 〉 50 % of the variance. Thus, G. truncatulinoides, G. hirsuta and G. scitula appear to descend in the water column towards the summer, whereas populations of Trilobatus sacculifer appear to descend in the water column towards the new moon. In all other species, properties of the mixed layer explained more of the observed variance than the periodic models. Chlorophyll a concentration seems least important for ALD, whilst shoaling of the habitat with deepening of the ML is observed most frequently. We observe both shoaling and deepening of species habitat with increasing temperature. Further, we observe that temperature and seawater density at the depth of the ALD were not equally variable among the studied species, and their variability showed no consistent relationship with depth habitat. According to our results, depth habitat of individual species changes in response to different environmental and ontogenetic factors and consequently planktonic foraminifera exhibit not only species-specific mean habitat depths but also species-specific changes in habitat depth.

Description: Here we establish a spatio-temporal evolution of the sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic over Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) events 5–8 (c. 30–40 ka) using the proxy surrogate reconstruction method. Proxy data suggest a large variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures during the DO-events of the last glacial period. However, proxy data availability is limited and cannot provide a full spatial picture of the oceanic changes. Therefore, we combine fully coupled, general circulation model simulations with planktic foraminifera based sea-surface temperature reconstructions to obtain a broader spatial picture of the ocean state during DO-events 5–8. The resulting spatial sea-surface temperature patterns agree over a number of different general circulation models and simulations. We find that sea-surface temperature variability over the DO-events is characterized by colder conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic during stadials than during interstadials, and the variability is linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, and in the sea-ice cover. Forced simulations are needed to capture the strength of the temperature variability and to reconstruct the variability in other climatic records not directly linked to the sea-surface temperature reconstructions. Our results are robust to uncertainties in the age models of the proxy data, the number of available temperature reconstructions, and over a range of climate models.

Description: New dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) analyses were carried out at high-resolution in core MD99-2339, retrieved from a contouritic field in the central part of the Gulf of Cadiz, for the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 interval, allowing to discuss paleohydrological changes over the last 50 ky in the subtropical NE Atlantic Ocean. Some index dinocyst taxa, according to their (paleo) ecological significance, shed light on significant sea-surface changes. Superimposed on the general decreasing pattern of dinocyst export to the seafloor over the last 50 ky, paralleling the general context of decreasing aeolian dust fertilization, a complex variability in dinocyst assemblages was detected at millennial timescale. Enhanced fluvial discharges occurred during Greenland Interstadials (GI) and especially GI 1, 8 and 12, while enhanced upwelling cell dynamics were suggested during the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadials. Finally, during the early Holocene, and more specifically during the Sapropel 1 interval (around 7–9 ka BP), we evidenced a strong decrease in dinocyst fluxes, which occurred synchronously to a strong reduction in Mediterranean Outflow Water strength, and that we attributed to an advection of warm and nutrient-poor subtropical North Atlantic Central Waters. Over the last 50 ky, our study thus allows capturing and documenting the fine tuning existing between terrestrial and marine realms in North Atlantic subtropical latitudes, not only in response to the regional climate pattern, but also to monsoonal forcing interfering during precession-driven northern hemisphere insolation maxima. This mechanism, well expressed during the Holocene, is superimposed on the pervasive role of the obliquity as a first major trigger for explaining migration of dinocyst productive centres in the NE Atlantic margin to the subtropical (temperate) latitudes during glacial (interglacial) periods.

Description: Stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) of planktonic foraminifera are one of the most used tools to reconstruct environmental conditions of the water column. Since different species live and calcify at different depths in the water column, the δ18O of sedimentary foraminifera reflects to a large degree the vertical habitat and interspecies δ18O differences and can thus potentially provide information on the vertical structure of the water column. However, to fully unlock the potential of foraminifera as recorders of past surface water properties, it is necessary to understand how and under what conditions the environmental signal is incorporated into the calcite shells of individual species. Deep-dwelling species play a particularly important role in this context since their calcification depth reaches below the surface mixed layer. Here we report δ18O measurements made on four deep-dwelling Globorotalia species collected with stratified plankton tows in the eastern North Atlantic. Size and crust effects on the δ18O signal were evaluated showing that a larger size increases the δ18O of G. inflata and G. hirsuta, and a crust effect is reflected in a higher δ18O signal in G. truncatulinoides. The great majority of the δ18O values can be explained without invoking disequilibrium calcification. When interpreted in this way the data imply depth-integrated calcification with progressive addition of calcite with depth to about 300 m for G. inflata and to about 500 m for G. hirsuta. In G. scitula, despite a strong subsurface maximum in abundance, the vertical δ18O profile is flat and appears dominated by a surface layer signal. In G. truncatulinoides, the δ18O profile follows equilibrium for each depth, implying a constant habitat during growth at each depth layer. The δ18O values are more consistent with the predictions of the Shackleton (1974) palaeotemperature equation, except in G. scitula which shows values more consistent with the Kim and O'Neil (1997) prediction. In all cases, we observe a difference between the level where most of the specimens were present and the depth where most of their shell appears to calcify.

Description: Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralization of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5, and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralization is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralization or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralization. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times lower/higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

Description: Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012–2031 average and the 2081–2100 average is up to 3 mol C m-2 yr-1. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Description: Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

Description: Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Description: The oceans currently take up around a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activity. While stored in the ocean, this CO2 is not influencing Earth's radiation budget; the ocean CO2 sink therefore plays an important role in mitigating global warming. CO2 uptake by the oceans is heterogeneous, with the subpolar North Atlantic being the strongest CO2 sink region. Observations over the last 2 decades have indicated that CO2 uptake by the subpolar North Atlantic sink can vary rapidly. Given the importance of this sink and its apparent variability, it is critical that we understand the mechanisms behind its operation. Here we explore the combined natural and anthropogenic subpolar North Atlantic CO2 uptake across a large ensemble of Earth System Model simulations, and find that models show a peak in sink strength around the middle of the century after which CO2 uptake begins to decline. We identify different drivers of change on interannual and multidecadal timescales. Short-term variability appears to be driven by fluctuations in regional seawater temperature and alkalinity, whereas the longer-term evolution throughout the coming century is largely occurring through a counterintuitive response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At high atmospheric CO2 concentrations the contrasting Revelle factors between the low latitude water and the subpolar gyre, combined with the transport of surface waters from the low latitudes to the subpolar gyre, means that the subpolar CO2 uptake capacity is largely satisfied from its southern boundary rather than through air–sea CO2 flux. Our findings indicate that: (i) we can explain the mechanisms of subpolar North Atlantic CO2 uptake variability across a broad range of Earth System Models; (ii) a focus on understanding the mechanisms behind contemporary variability may not directly tell us about how the sink will change in the future; (iii) to identify long-term change in the North Atlantic CO2 sink we should focus observational resources on monitoring lower latitude as well as the subpolar seawater CO2; (iv) recent observations of a weakening subpolar North Atlantic CO2 sink may suggest that the sink strength has peaked and is in long-term decline.