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  • 2020-2024  (5)
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  • 1
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    The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change (2022)
    In:  Nature Communications
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    The water planetary boundary: interrogation and revision (2020)
    In:  One Earth
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-18
    Description: The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantified guardrails to human modification of global environmental processes that regulate the stability of the planet and has been considered in sustainability science, governance, and corporate management. However, the planetary boundary for human freshwater use has been critiqued as a singular measure that does not reflect all types of human interference with the complex global water cycle and Earth System. We suggest that the water planetary boundary will be more scientifically robust and more useful in decision-making frameworks if it is redesigned to consider more specifically how climate and living ecosystems respond to changes in the different forms of water on Earth: atmospheric water, frozen water, groundwater, soil moisture, and surface water. This paper provides an ambitious scientific road map to define a new water planetary boundary consisting of sub-boundaries that account for a variety of changes to the water cycle.
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  • 3
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    Future population transgress climatic risk boundaries of extreme temperature and precipitation (2023)
    In:  XVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
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    Publication Date: 2023-08-02
    Description: Human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and heavy rainfall, and their impacts have begun to manifest themselves in the form of various health hazards, wildfires, floods, and other types of damaging events. Significant risks can arise when the magnitudes of climate change exceed the adaptive capacity of a region. An unprecedented climatic risk could potentially have serious impacts on socioeconomic systems. Considering the adaptability to extreme climatic risks in the future, this study focused on determining whether humans have been exposed to the risks before, and defined the rim of two-dimensional histograms of population under 20-year extreme temperature and precipitation as a climatic risk boundary. It was revealed that more than 30% (16.3%) of world population in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and other regions will transgress the climatic risk boundary by the end of this century under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) scenario. Furthermore, under the assumption that the acceptability of adaptation measures currently adopted by people in other regions cannot avoid the influence of cultural and social aspects, regional climate risk boundary for people in each region is also developed. While many areas with large cities will remain within the global climatic risk boundary, they will transgress their regional climatic risk boundaries. This study shows that it is also necessary to consider the limits to adaptation for each appropriate area, considering the cultural, technological, and social transferability of adaptation, and will help refine public perceptions of extreme climatic risks and lead to more efficient policy making.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
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    Distribution matters: on the sensitivity of gridded data for population and economic condition to global water scarcity assessment (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
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    Publication Date: 2023-06-02
    Description: Water availability per capita is among the most fundamental water-scarcity indicators used extensively in global grid-based water resources assessments. As the concept of Anthropocene spreads, it has extended to include the economic aspect recently, a proxy of the capability for water management which we applied globally under SSP–RCP scenarios using gridded population and economic conditions. We found that population and economic projection choices significantly influence the global water scarcity assessment, particularly the assumption of urban concentrated and dispersed population. Using multiple SSP–RCP scenarios, GCMs, and two gridded population datasets, capturing future extremities, we show that the water-scarce population ranges from 0.32–665 million in the future. Uncertainties in the SSP–RCP and GCM scenarios are 6.58–489 million and 0.03–248 million, respectively. The population distribution has a similar impact, with an uncertainty of 169.1–338 million. These results highlight the importance of the subregional distribution of socioeconomic factors for future global environment prediction. The study further confirmed the predominant effect of socioeconomic factors (i.e., GDP and population) over climate-related ones (i.e., available freshwater) for future water scarcity. To contribute to evidence-based policy makings, such as the formulation of adaptation measures based on more reliable climate change assessments, it is necessary to estimate future population and GDP distributions that take into account the interaction between the global environment and human society.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Scenario studies for safe usage of groundwater during the post-disaster period in Japan (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-07
    Description: Owing to the emergent situation under earthquake, flood and so on, the water outage is one of serious and grave damage on the suffers. Main counter measure for water outage is emergency water-supply by a water tender. When the wide area is damaged, the capacity of water tender is not enough for water demand of suffers. Groundwater has a potential to support a part of water demand. On the other hand, the intake of groundwater has been limited to avoid the land subsidence so far. Recently, the wise usage of groundwater for risk managed reliable supply of water is now considering. Here, we try to develop the scenario for safe use of groundwater during post-disaster period over the Kanto Plain including Tokyo, the capital of Japan, and Nobi Plain including Nagoya, Japan. Those plains are at risk of earthquake and drought. The shortage of water resources was calculated as the amount of demand minus the amount of supply. This water supply interruption rate is high in areas at risk of liquefaction, where the risk of water pipe breakage is high, so the calculation was made separately from other areas. The demand for water for domestic use was based on the demand for water for domestic use in each time series assumed in the disaster prevention plan by the Japanese government. These calculations were conducted for each municipality category, and finally weighted and allocated with reference to land use to create a 250m mesh of water shortage.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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