ALBERT

Description: Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds.

Description: In a widely‐held conception, the biological carbon pump (BCP) is equal to the export of organic matter out of the euphotic zone. Using global ocean‐atmosphere model experiments we show that the change in export production is a poor measure of the biological pump's feedback to the atmosphere. The change in global true oxygen utilization (TOU), an integrative measure of the imprint of the BCP on marine oxygen, however, is in good agreement with the net change in the biogenic air‐sea flux of oxygen. Since TOU correlates very well with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in our experiments, we propose to measure the change of AOU from data of global float programs to monitor the feedback of the BCP to the atmosphere. For the current ocean we estimate that BCP changes effect a CO2 uptake by the ocean in the range of 0.07 to 0.14 GtC/yr.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (∼645 Mt CO2), reducing (∼50 Mt CO2) and removing (∼60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions. This meant substantial transformation of the energy system, increasing energy efficiency, sector coupling, and electrification, energy storage solutions including synthetic energy carriers, sector-specific solutions for industry, transport, and agriculture, as well as natural-sink enhancement and technological carbon dioxide options. All of the above was necessary to achieve a net-zero CO2 system for Germany by 2050.

Description: Key points: Models performing similarly with respect to global NO3, PO4, and O2 distributions yield diverse responses in marine N2 fixation to warming • Marine N2 fixation trends are sensitive to whether iron limits primary production in upwelling regions, for example, the Eastern Tropical Pacific Biological nitrogen fixation is an important oceanic nitrogen source, potentially stabilizing marine fertility in an increasingly stratified and nutrient-depleted ocean. Iron limitation of low latitude primary producers has been previously demonstrated to affect simulated regional ecosystem responses to climate warming or nitrogen cycle perturbation. Here we use three biogeochemical models that vary in their representation of the iron cycle to estimate change in the marine nitrogen cycle under a high CO2 emissions future scenario (RCP8.5). The first model neglects explicit iron effects on biology (NoFe), the second utilizes prescribed, seasonally-cyclic iron concentrations and associated limitation factors (FeMask), and the third contains a fully dynamic iron cycle (FeDyn). Models were calibrated using observed fields to produce near-equivalent nutrient and oxygen fits, with productivity ranging from 49 to 75 Pg C yr−1. Global marine nitrogen fixation increases by 71.1% with respect to the preindustrial value by the year 2100 in NoFe, while it remains stable (0.7% decrease in FeMask and 0.3% increase in FeDyn) in explicit iron models. The mitigation of global nitrogen fixation trend in the models that include a representation of iron originates in the Eastern boundary upwelling zones, where the bottom-up control of iron limitation reduces export production with warming, which shrinks the oxygen deficient volume, and reduces denitrification. Warming-induced trends in the oxygen deficient volume in the upwelling zones have a cascading effect on the global nitrogen cycle, just as they have previously been shown to affect tropical net primary production.

Description: The Humboldt Upwelling System is of global interest due to its importance to fisheries, though the origin of its high productivity remains elusive. In regional physical-biogeochemical model simulations, the seasonal amplitude of mesozooplankton net production exceeds that of phytoplankton, indicating “seasonal trophic amplification.” An analytical approach identifies amplification to be driven by a seasonally varying trophic transfer efficiency due to mixed layer variations. The latter alters the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and thus the zooplankton and phytoplankton encounters, with lower encounters occurring in a deeper mixed layer where phytoplankton are diluted. In global model simulations, mixed layer depth appears to affect trophic transfer similarly in other productive regions. Our results highlight the importance of mixed layer depth for trophodynamics on a seasonal scale with potential significant implications, given mixed layer depth changes projected under climate change.

Description: The current narrative of artificial upwelling (AU) is to translocate nutrient rich deep water to the ocean surface, thereby stimulating the biological carbon pump (BCP). Our refined narrative takes the response of the solubility pump and the CO2 emission scenario into account. Using global ocean-atmosphere model experiments we show that the effectiveness of a hypothetical maximum AU deployment in all ocean areas where AU is predicted to lower surface pCO2, the draw down of CO2 from the atmosphere during years 2020–2100 depends strongly on the CO2 emission scenario and ranges from 1.01 Pg C/year (3.70 Pg CO2/year) under RCP 8.5 to 0.32 Pg C/year (1.17 Pg CO2/year) under RCP 2.6. The solubility pump becomes equally effective compared to the BCP under the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5), but responds with CO2 outgassing under low CO2 emission scenarios. Key Points: - Artificial upwelling (AU) effectiveness to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere is strongly dependent on the future CO2 emission scenario - The solubility pump becomes as effective as the biological carbon pump under high emission scenarios - Organic matter transfer efficiency decreases under AU, likely due to higher water temperatures below the ocean's surface

Description: Iron is a key micronutrient controlling phytoplankton growth in vast regions of the global ocean. Despite its importance, uncertainties remain high regarding external iron source fluxes and internal cycling on a global scale. In this study, we used a global dissolved iron dataset, including GEOTRACES measurements, to constrain source and scavenging fluxes in the marine iron component of a global ocean biogeochemical model. Our model simulations tested three key uncertainties: source inputs of atmospheric soluble iron deposition (varying from 1.4–3.4 Gmol/yr), reductive sedimentary iron release (14–117 Gmol/yr), and compared a variable ligand parameterization to a constant distribution. In each simulation, scavenging rates were tuned to reproduce the observed global mean iron inventory for consistency. The variable ligand parameterization improved the global model-data misfit the most, suggesting that heterotrophic bacteria are an important source of ligands to the ocean. Model simulations containing high source fluxes of atmospheric soluble iron deposition (3.4 Gmol/yr) and reductive sedimentary iron release (114 Gmol/yr) further improved the model most notably in the surface ocean. High scavenging rates were then required to maintain the iron inventory resulting in relatively short surface and global ocean residence times of 0.83 and 7.5 years, respectively. The model simulates a tight spatial coupling between source inputs and scavenging rates, which may be too strong due to underrepresented ligands near source inputs, contributing to large uncertainties when constraining individual fluxes with dissolved iron concentrations. Model biases remain high and are discussed to help improve global marine iron cycle models.

Description: Quantifying changes in oceanic aerobic respiration is essential for understanding marine deoxygenation. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate if and to what extent oxygen utilization rate (OUR) can be used to track the temporal change of true respiration (Rtrue). Rtrue results from the degradation of particulate and dissolved organic matter in the model ocean, acting as ground truth to evaluate the accuracy of OUR. Results show that in thermocline and intermediate waters of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (200–1,000 m), vertically integrated OUR and Rtrue both decrease by 0.2 molO2/m2/yr from 1850 to 2100 under global warming. However, in the mesopelagic Tropical South Atlantic, integrated OUR increases by 0.2 molO2/m2/yr, while the Rtrue integral decreases by 0.3 molO2/m2/yr. A possible reason for the diverging OUR and Rtrue is ocean mixing, which affects water mass composition and maps remote respiration changes to the study region. Key Points: - Our model study confirms earlier findings that oxygen utilization rate (OUR) underestimates true respiration (Rtrue) in mesopelagic ocean - Despite OUR underestimate Rtrue, OUR can adequately estimate long-term changes in Rtrue in the mesopelagic North Atlantic subtropical gyre - OUR cannot adequately estimate climate-driven changes in Rtrue in the mesopelagic tropical South Atlantic where different water masses mix

Description: With almost 700 Pg of carbon, marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) stores more carbon than all living biomass on Earth combined. However, the controls behind the persistence and the spatial patterns of DOC concentrations on the basin scale remain largely unknown, precluding quantitative assessments of the fate of this large carbon pool in a changing climate. Net removal rates of DOC along the overturning circulation suggest lifetimes of millennia. These net removal rates are in stark contrast to the turnover times of days to weeks of heterotrophic microorganisms, which are the main consumers of organic carbon in the ocean. Here, we present a dynamic “MICrobial DOC” model (MICDOC) with an explicit representation of picoheterotrophs to test whether ecological mechanisms may lead to observed decadal to millennial net removal rates. MICDOC is in line with 〉40,000 DOC observations. Contrary to other global models, the reactivity of DOC fractions is not prescribed, but emerges from a dynamic feedback between microbes and DOC governed by carbon and macronutrient availability. A colimitation of macronutrients and organic carbon on microbial DOC uptake explains 〉70% of the global variation of DOC concentrations, and governs characteristic features of its distribution. Here, decadal to millennial net removal rates emerge from microbial processes acting on time scales of days to weeks, suggesting that the temporal variability of the marine DOC inventory may be larger than previously thought. With MICDOC, we provide a foundation for assessing global effects on DOC related to changes in heterotrophic microbial communities in a future ocean Plain Language Summary The ocean stores more carbon as dissolved organic compounds (DOC) than all animals and plants on land and the oceans combined. However, numerical models used for future climate scenarios lack an implementation of processes transforming DOC back to CO 2 by marine microorganisms. Here, we present a global dynamical ocean model that explicitly considers the processes of DOC degradation by marine microorganisms. In the present ocean, the availability of organic carbon but also nitrogen and phosphorus control the amount of carbon stored as DOC, as the lack of these nutrients inhibits its degradation by bacteria. The identification of these ecological controls allows a quantitative assessment of the fate of this large carbon reservoir in the future. The findings indicate that the marine DOC reservoir is potentially more dynamic than previously thought, since decadal to millennial scale net removal rates might be a result of microbial processes acting on shorter time scales Key Points A model to reconcile millennial‐scale bulk dissolved organic carbon degradation rates and short‐term microbial turnover times is presented Macronutrient colimitation can explain observed concentration patterns of dissolved organic carbon in the surface ocean Continuous microbial reworking suggests a higher temporal variability of the marine dissolved organic matter inventory than previously thought