ALBERT

Description: Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).

Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Description: Measurements of OH, HO2, complex RO2 (alkene- and aromatic-related RO2) and total RO2 radicals taken during the integrated Study of AIR Pollution PROcesses in Beijing (AIRPRO) campaign in central Beijing in the summer of 2017, alongside observations of OH reactivity, are presented. The concentrations of radicals were elevated, with OH reaching up to 2.8×107moleculecm-3, HO2 peaking at 1×109moleculecm-3 and the total RO2 concentration reaching 5.5×109moleculecm-3. OH reactivity (k(OH)) peaked at 89 s−1 during the night, with a minimum during the afternoon of ≈22s-1 on average. An experimental budget analysis, in which the rates of production and destruction of the radicals are compared, highlighted that although the sources and sinks of OH were balanced under high NO concentrations, the OH sinks exceeded the known sources (by 15 ppbv h−1) under the very low NO conditions (

Description: We present an updated mechanism for tropospheric halogen (Cl + Br + I) chemistry in the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemical transport model and apply it to investigate halogen radical cycling and implications for tropospheric oxidants. Improved representation of HOBr heterogeneous chemistry and its pH dependence in our simulation leads to less efficient recycling and mobilization of bromine radicals and enables the model to include mechanistic sea salt aerosol debromination without generating excessive BrO. The resulting global mean tropospheric BrO mixing ratio is 0.19 ppt (parts per trillion), lower than previous versions of GEOS-Chem. Model BrO shows variable consistency and biases in comparison to surface and aircraft observations in marine air, which are often near or below the detection limit. The model underestimates the daytime measurements of Cl2 and BrCl from the ATom aircraft campaign over the Pacific and Atlantic, which if correct would imply a very large missing primary source of chlorine radicals. Model IO is highest in the marine boundary layer and uniform in the free troposphere, with a global mean tropospheric mixing ratio of 0.08 ppt, and shows consistency with surface and aircraft observations. The modeled global mean tropospheric concentration of Cl atoms is 630 cm−3, contributing 0.8 % of the global oxidation of methane, 14 % of ethane, 8 % of propane, and 7 % of higher alkanes. Halogen chemistry decreases the global tropospheric burden of ozone by 11 %, NOx by 6 %, and OH by 4 %. Most of the ozone decrease is driven by iodine-catalyzed loss. The resulting GEOS-Chem ozone simulation is unbiased in the Southern Hemisphere but too low in the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with global warming potentials up to several thousand times greater than CO2 on a 100-year time horizon. The lack of any significant sinks for PFCs means that they have long atmospheric lifetimes of the order of thousands of years. Anthropogenic production is thought to be the only source for most PFCs. Here we report an update on the global atmospheric abundances of the following PFCs, most of which have for the first time been analytically separated according to their isomers: c-octafluorobutane (c-C4F8), n-decafluorobutane (n-C4F10), n-dodecafluoropentane (n-C5F12), n-tetradecafluorohexane (n-C6F14), and n-hexadecafluoroheptane (n-C7F16). Additionally, we report the first data set on the atmospheric mixing ratios of perfluoro-2-methylpentane (i-C6F14). The existence and significance of PFC isomers have not been reported before, due to the analytical challenges of separating them. The time series spans a period from 1978 to the present. Several data sets are used to investigate temporal and spatial trends of these PFCs: time series of air samples collected at Cape Grim, Australia, from 1978 to the start of 2018; a time series of air samples collected between July 2015 and April 2017 at Tacolneston, UK; and intensive campaign-based sampling collections from Taiwan. Although the remote “background” Southern Hemispheric Cape Grim time series indicates that recent growth rates of most of these PFCs are lower than in the 1990s, we continue to see significantly increasing mixing ratios that are between 6 % and 27 % higher by the end of 2017 compared to abundances measured in 2010. Air samples from Tacolneston show a positive offset in PFC mixing ratios compared to the Southern Hemisphere baseline. The highest mixing ratios and variability are seen in air samples from Taiwan, which is therefore likely situated much closer to PFC sources, confirming predominantly Northern Hemispheric emissions for most PFCs. Even though these PFCs occur in the atmosphere at levels of parts per trillion molar or less, their total cumulative global emissions translate into 833 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent by the end of 2017, 23 % of which has been emitted since 2010. Almost two-thirds of the CO2 equivalent emissions within the last decade are attributable to c-C4F8, which currently also has the highest emission rates that continue to grow. Sources of all PFCs covered in this work remain poorly constrained and reported emissions in global databases do not account for the abundances found in the atmosphere.

Description: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (

Description: Airborne and ground-based Pandora spectrometer NO2 column measurements were collected during the 2018 Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) in the New York City/Long Island Sound region, which coincided with early observations from the Sentinel-5P TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument. Both airborne- and ground-based measurements are used to evaluate the TROPOMI NO2 Tropospheric Vertical Column (TrVC) product v1.2 in this region, which has high spatial and temporal heterogeneity in NO2. First, airborne and Pandora TrVCs are compared to evaluate the uncertainty of the airborne TrVC and establish the spatial representativeness of the Pandora observations. The 171 coincidences between Pandora and airborne TrVCs are found to be highly correlated (r2= 0.92 and slope of 1.03), with the largest individual differences being associated with high temporal and/or spatial variability. These reference measurements (Pandora and airborne) are complementary with respect to temporal coverage and spatial representativity. Pandora spectrometers can provide continuous long-term measurements but may lack areal representativity when operated in direct-sun mode. Airborne spectrometers are typically only deployed for short periods of time, but their observations are more spatially representative of the satellite measurements with the added capability of retrieving at subpixel resolutions of 250 m × 250 m over the entire TROPOMI pixels they overfly. Thus, airborne data are more correlated with TROPOMI measurements (r2=0.96) than Pandora measurements are with TROPOMI (r2=0.84). The largest outliers between TROPOMI and the reference measurements appear to stem from too spatially coarse a priori surface reflectivity (0.5∘) over bright urban scenes. In this work, this results during cloud-free scenes that, at times, are affected by errors in the TROPOMI cloud pressure retrieval impacting the calculation of tropospheric air mass factors. This factor causes a high bias in TROPOMI TrVCs of 4 %–11 %. Excluding these cloud-impacted points, TROPOMI has an overall low bias of 19 %–33 % during the LISTOS timeframe of June–September 2018. Part of this low bias is caused by coarse a priori profile input from the TM5-MP model; replacing these profiles with those from a 12 km North American Model–Community Multiscale Air Quality (NAMCMAQ) analysis results in a 12 %–14 % increase in the TrVCs. Even with this improvement, the TROPOMI-NAMCMAQ TrVCs have a 7 %–19 % low bias, indicating needed improvement in a priori assumptions in the air mass factor calculation. Future work should explore additional impacts of a priori inputs to further assess the remaining low biases in TROPOMI using these datasets.

Description: The Arctic is rapidly changing, disrupting biogeochemical cycles and the processing, delivery and sedimentation of carbon (C), in linked terrestrial–aquatic systems. In this investigation, we coupled a hydrogeomorphic assessment of catchment soils, sediments and plants with a recent lake sediment sequence to understand the source and quality of organic carbon present in three Arctic upland lake catchments on Disko Island, located just south of the low–high Arctic transition zone. This varied permafrost landscape has exposed soils with less vegetation cover at higher altitudes, and lakes received varying amounts of glacial meltwater inputs. We provide improved isotope and biomarker source identifications for palaeolimnological studies in high-latitude regions, where terrestrial vegetation is at or close to its northerly and altitudinal range limit. The poorly developed catchment soils lead to lake waters with low dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (≤1.5 mg L−1). Sedimentary carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios, the C isotope composition of organic matter (δ13Corg) and biomarker ratios (n-alkanes, n-alkanols, n-alkanoic acids and sterols) showed that sedimentary organic matter (OM) in these lakes is mostly derived from aquatic sources (algae and macrophytes). We used a 210Pb-dated sediment core to determine how carbon cycling in a lake–catchment system (Disko 2) had changed over recent centuries. Recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA∼1860 CE), which accelerated after ca. 1950, led to melt of glacier ice and permafrost, releasing nutrients and DOC to the lake and stimulating pronounced aquatic algal production, as shown by a 〉10-fold increase in β-carotene, indicative of a major regime shift. We also demonstrate that recent increases in catchment terrestrial vegetation cover contributed to the autochthonous response. Our findings highlight that in Arctic lakes with sparsely developed catchment vegetation and soils, recent Anthropocene warming results in pronounced changes to in-lake C processing and the deposition of more reactive, predominately autochthonous C, when compared with extensively vegetated low-Arctic systems.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

Description: Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.