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  • 1
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Description: The NEAMTHM18 was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). The work by INGV authors also benefitted from funding by the INGV-DPC Agreement 2012-2021 (Annex B2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 616594
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment ; earthquake-generated tsunami ; hazard uncertainty analysis ; ensemble modeling ; maximum inundation height ; NEAM ; 05.08. Risk ; 03.02. Hydrology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-20
    Description: The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k−2 stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model ~ 150,000 earthquakes with 𝑀𝑤 from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1497–1520
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Investigating source directivity for the 2012 Ml5.9 Emilia (Northern Italy) earthquake by jointly using High-rate GPS and Strong motion data (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-19
    Description: On May, 20th 2012, the Ferrara and Modena provinces (Emilia Romagna, Northern Italy) were struck by a moderate magnitude earthquake (Ml 5.9). The focal mechanism is consistent with a ~E-W-striking thrust fault. The mainshock was recorded by 29 high-rate sampling (1-Hz) continuous GPS (HRGPS) stations belonging to scientific or commercial networks and by 55 strong motion (SM) stations belonging to INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) and RAN (Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale) networks, respectively. The spatial distribution of both HRGPS and SM stations with respect to the mainshock location allows a satisfactory azimuthal coverage of the area. To investigate directivity effects during the mainshock occurrence, we analyze the spatial variation of the peak ground displacement (PGD) measured either for HRGPS or SM sites, using different methods. For each HRGPS and SM site, we rotated the horizontal time series to the azimuth direction and we estimated the GPS-related and the SM-related peak ground displacement (G-PGD and S-PGD, respectively) retrieved by transverse component. However, in contrast to GPS displacements, the double integration of the SM data can be affected by the presence of drifts and, thus, they have to be corrected by quasi-manual procedures. To more properly compare the G-PGDs to the S-PGDs, we used the response spectrum. A response spectrum is simply the response of a series of oscillators of varying natural frequency, that are forced into motion by the same input. The asymptotic value of the displacement response spectrum is the peak ground displacement. Thus, for each HRGPS and SM site, we computed the value of this asymptotic trend (G-PGDrs and S-PGDrs, respectively). This method allows simple automatic procedures. The consistency of the PGDs derived from HRGPS and SM is also evaluated for sites where the two instruments are collocated. The PGDs obtained by the two different methods and the two different data types suggest a source directivity effect in the SE (~120°-150°N) direction.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco, California (USA)
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: HRGPS; strong motion ; source directivity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 4
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    Combined effect of basin resonance and source directivity: implications for long period hazard in the Apennines, central Italy (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: During the three strongest shocks of the 1997 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, seismic sequence, long-period (T 〉 1 s) spectral ordinates showed large variations in intermountain basins in the Apennines. In particular, at a strong-motion station in the Rieti plain, about 65 km south of epicenters, long-period response spectra during the Mw 5.6 and 5.7 shocks had larger amplitudes than the Mw 6.0 ones; in contrast, in the Gubbio basin, about 40 km northwest of the epicenters, the Mw 6.0 shock had spectral ordinates exceeding those of the Mw 5.6 and 5.7 shocks by more than a factor of 10 at long periods. Since focal mechanisms were similar for the causative earthquakes and the difference in magnitude and source-to-receiver-path is small, these observations can only be explained in terms of a different source directivity. The availability of a rock station on the Gubbio basin edge and other moderate-magnitude earthquakes of the same seismic sequence allows us to separate the local amplification term from the varying contribution of source directivity for the different shocks. Their combination is responsible for long-period ground displacements significantly larger than 10 cm at Mw 6.0 and 40-km source distance. Since source directivity is a very recurrent feature for normal-faulting earthquakes of the Apennines (evident during the recent L’Aquila earthquakes even at magnitudes as small as 3), these results arise a concern for many intermountain basins located in a geographical position favorable to a significant hazard increase due to source directivity. Furthermore, the performance of different Ground Motion Prediction Equations has been explored as well as of corrections based on various source directivity models.
    Description: Published
    Description: University of California Santa Barbara
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: Source directivity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 5
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    Testing the improvement of ShakeMaps using f inite-f ault models and synthetic seismograms (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: ShakeMap package uses empirical ground motion prediction equations (GM PEs) to estimate the ground motion where recorded data are not available. Recorded and estimated values are then interpolated in order to produce a shaking map associated to the considered event. Anyway GMPEs account only for average characteristics of source and wave propagation processes. Within the framework of the DPC-INGV S3 project (2007-09), we evaluate whether the inclusion of directivity effects in GMPEs (companion paper Spagnuolo et al., 2010) or the use of synthetic seismograms from finite-fault rupture models may improve the ShakeMap evaluation. An advantage of using simulated motions from kinematic rupture models is that source effects, as rupture directivity, are directly included in the synthetics. This is particularly interesting in Italy where the regional GMPEs, based on a few number of near-source records for moderate-to-large earthquakes, are not reliable for estimating ground motion in the vicinity of the source. In this work we investigated how and if the synthetic seismograms generated with finite-fault models can be used in place of (or in addition to) GMPEs within the ShakeMap methodology. We assumed a description of the rupture model with gradually increasing details, from a simple point source to a kinematic rupture history obtained from inversion of strong-motion data. According to the available information synthetic seismograms are calculated with methods that account for the different degree of approximation in source properties. We chose the M w 6.9 2008 Iwate-M iyagi (Japan) earthquake as a case study. This earthquake has been recorded by a very large number of stations and the corresponding ShakeMap relies almost totally on the recorded ground motions. Starting from this ideal case, we removed a number of stations in order to evaluate the deviations from the reference map and the sensitivity of the map to the number of stations used. The removed data are then substituted with synthetic values calculated assuming different source approximations, and the resulting maps are compared to the original ones (containing observed data only). The use of synthetic seismograms computed for finite-fault rupture models produces, in general, an improvement of the calculated ShakeMaps, especially when synthetics are used to integrate real data. When real data are not available and ShakeMap is estimated using GMPEs only, the improvement adding simulated values depends on the considered strong-motion parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: Montpellier , France
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: Shakemaps ; synthetic seismograms ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 6
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    Accounting for rupture directivity in ShakeMap (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The rapid and accurate information about the ground shaking following an earthquake is necessary for emergency response planning. A prompt strategy is contouring the real data recorded at the stations. However only few regions, i.e. Japan and Taiwan, have an instrumental coverage as good as needed to produce shaking maps relying almost entirely on real data. ShakeMap has been conceived in order to “fill” the data gap and producing stable contouring using the ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) and site effect. Thus for regions where the data coverage is sparse, the interpolation plays a crucial role and the choice of the GMPE can affect strongly the goodness of the ground shaking estimation. However the GMPEs derive from an empirical regression describing the averaged behavior of the ground shaking and tend to mask, when present, specific trends due to multidimensional effects like the asymmetry of the rupture process (directivity effect). Thus, ShakeMaps for large events may not reproduce faithfully the ground motion in the near source if determined without the introduction of rupture related parameters. One way to improve the ShakeMap prediction is to modify the ground motion modeling in order to better explain the ground motion variability. To this purpose, the empirical model can be refined with information about the rupture process (Spagnuolo PhD2010), in this case using the directivity term defined by Spudich and Chiou (Earthquake Spectra 2008). The aim of this work is to quantify the effectiveness of refined GMPEs in improving the performance of ShakeMap. We quantify the agreement of this new GMPE with the real recorded data, and make inference about the reliability of this new ShakeMap. The test is focused on the study of the ShakeMap degradation when the number of the observations is reduced, and on the quantification of the improvements due to the directivity term. In order to conduct properly the test, we investigate two well- recorded events from Japan: the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi (M7) and the 2000 Tottori (M6.6) events. This work is part of the DPC-INGV S3 project (2007-09), as described in the companion abstract Ameri et al. (ESC2010).
    Description: Published
    Description: Montpellier, France
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: ShakeMap ; hazard ; seismology ; directivity
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 7
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    From Seismic Monitoring to Tsunami Warning in the Mediterranean Sea (2021)
    SSA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-31
    Description: The Italian Tsunami Alert Center based at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CAT-INGV) has been monitoring the Mediterranean seismicity in the past 8 yr to get fast and reliable information for seismically induced tsunami warnings. CAT-INGV is a tsunami service provider in charge of monitoring the seismicity of the Mediterranean Sea and of alerting Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)/UNESCO subscriber Member States and the Italian Department of Civil Protection of a potentially impending tsunami, in the framework of the Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS). CAT-INGV started operating in 2013 and became operational in October 2016. Here, after describing the NEAMTWS in the framework of the global effort coordinated by IOC/UNESCO, we focus on the tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea. We then describe CAT-INGV mandate, functioning, and operational procedures. Furthermore, the article discusses the lessons learned from past events occurring in the Mediterranean Sea, such as the Kos-Bodrum in 2017 (Mw 6.6) and the Samos-Izmir in 2020 (Mw 7.0) earthquakes, which generated moderately damaging tsunamis. Based on these lessons, we discuss some potential improvements for the CAT-INGV and the NEAMTWS, including better seismic and sea level instrumental cover- age. We emphasize the need for tsunami risk awareness raising, better preparation, and full implementation of the tsunami warning “last-mile” to foster the creation of a more integrated, interoperable, and sustainable risk reduction framework. If we aim to be better prepared for the next tsunami, these important challenges should be prioritized in the agenda of the IOC/UNESCO Member States and the European Commission.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1796–1816
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Tsunami ; Early Warning
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Broadband ground-motion simulation of 2016 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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  • 9
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    From Seismic Monitoring to Tsunami Warning in the Mediterranean Sea (2021)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-31
    Description: The Italian Tsunami Alert Center based at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CAT-INGV) has been monitoring the Mediterranean seismicity in the past 8 yr to get fast and reliable information for seismically induced tsunami warnings. CAT-INGV is a tsunami service provider in charge of monitoring the seismicity of the Mediterranean Sea and of alerting Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)/UNESCO subscriber Member States and the Italian Department of Civil Protection of a potentially impending tsunami, in the framework of the Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS). CAT-INGV started operating in 2013 and became operational in October 2016. Here, after describing the NEAMTWS in the framework of the global effort coordinated by IOC/UNESCO, we focus on the tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea. We then describe CAT-INGV mandate, functioning, and operational procedures. Furthermore, the article discusses the lessons learned from past events occurring in the Mediterranean Sea, such as the Kos-Bodrum in 2017 (Mw 6.6) and the Samos-Izmir in 2020 (Mw 7.0) earthquakes, which generated moderately damaging tsunamis. Based on these lessons, we discuss some potential improvements for the CAT-INGV and the NEAMTWS, including better seismic and sea level instrumental coverage. We emphasize the need for tsunami risk awareness raising, better preparation, and full implementation of the tsunami warning “last-mile” to foster the creation of a more integrated, interoperable, and sustainable risk reduction framework. If we aim to be better prepared for the next tsunami, these important challenges should be prioritized in the agenda of the IOC/UNESCO Member States and the European Commission.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 10
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-05
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Electronic ISSN: 2296-6463
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Frontiers Media
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