ALBERT

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 385 drilled organic-rich sediments with sill intrusions on the flanking regions and in the northern axial graben in Guaymas Basin, a young marginal rift basin in the Gulf of California. Guaymas Basin is characterized by a widely distributed, intense heat flow and widespread off-axis magmatism expressed by a dense network of sill intrusions across the flanking regions, which is in contrast to classical mid-ocean ridge spreading centers. The numerous off-axis sills provide multiple transient heat sources that mobilize buried sedimentary carbon, in part as methane and other hydrocarbons, and drive hydrothermal circulation. The resulting thermal and geochemical gradients shape abundance, composition, and activity of the deep subsurface biosphere of the basin. Drill sites extend over the flanking regions of Guaymas Basin, covering a distance of ~81 km from the from the northwest to the southeast. Adjacent Sites U1545 and U1546 recovered the oldest and thickest sediment successions (to ~540 meters below seafloor [mbsf]; equivalent to the core depth below seafloor, Method A [CSF-A] scale), one with a thin sill (a few meters in thickness) near the drilled bottom (Site U1545), and one with a massive, deeply buried sill (~356–430 mbsf) that chemically and physically affects the surrounding sediments (Site U1546). Sites U1547 and U1548, located in the central part of the northern Guaymas Basin segment, were drilled to investigate a 600 m wide circular mound (bathymetric high) and its periphery. The dome-like structure is outlined by a ring of active vent sites called Ringvent. It is underlain by a remarkably thick sill at shallow depth (Site U1547). Hydrothermal gradients steepen at the Ringvent periphery (Holes U1548A–U1548C), which in turn shifts the zones of authigenic carbonate precipitation and of highest microbial cell abundance toward shallower depths. The Ringvent sill was drilled several times and yielded remarkably diverse igneous rock textures, sediment–sill interfaces, and hydrothermal alteration, reflected by various secondary minerals in veins and vesicles. Thus, the Ringvent sill became the target of an integrated sampling and interdisciplinary research effort that included geological, geochemical, and microbiological specialties. The thermal, lithologic, geochemical, and microbiological contrasts between the two deep northwestern sites (U1545 and U1546) and the Ringvent sites (U1547 and U1548) form the scientific centerpiece of the expedition. These observations are supplemented by results from sites that represent attenuated cold seepage conditions in the central basin (Site U1549), complex and disturbed sediments overlying sills in the northern axial trough (Site U1550), terrigenous sedimentation events on the southeastern flanking regions (Site U1551), and hydrate occurrence in shallow sediments proximal to the Sonora margin (Site U1552). The scientific outcomes of Expedition 385 will (1) revise long-held assumptions about the role of sill emplacement in subsurface carbon mobilization versus carbon retention, (2) comprehensively examine the subsurface biosphere of Guaymas Basin and its responses and adaptations to hydrothermal conditions, (3) redefine hydrothermal controls of authigenic mineral formation in sediments, and (4) yield new insights into many geochemical and geophysical aspects of both architecture and sill–sediment interaction in a nascent spreading center. The generally high quality and high degree of completeness of the shipboard datasets present opportunities for interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary collaborations during shore-based studies. In comparison to Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 64 to Guaymas Basin in 1979, sophisticated drilling strategies (for example, the advanced piston corer [APC] and half-length APC systems) and numerous analytical innovations have greatly improved sample recovery and scientific yield, particularly in the areas of organic geochemistry and microbiology. For example, microbial genomics did not exist 40 y ago. However, these technical refinements do not change the fact that Expedition 385 will in many respects build on the foundations laid by Leg 64 for understanding Guaymas Basin, regardless of whether adjustments are required in the near future.

Description: The Pterodactyl project, seeks to advance the current state-of-the-art for entry vehicles by developing novel guidance and control technologies for Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs) that can be applied to various entry vehicle configurations. This paper details the efforts on the NASA-funded Pterodactyl project to investigate and implement multiple control techniques for an asymmetric mechanical DEV. We design multiple control architectures for a Pterodactyl Baseline Vehicle (PBV) and evaluate their performance in achieving varying guidance commands during entry. The control architectures studied are (i) propulsive control systems such as reaction control systems and (ii) non-propulsive control systems such as aerodynamic control surfaces and internal moving masses. For each system, state-feedback integral controllers based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) optimal control methods are designed to track guidance commands of either (i) bank angle or (ii) angle of attack and sideslip angle as determined by the desired guidance trajectory. All control systems are compared for a lunar return reference mission and by providing a comparative analysis of these systems, configurations, and performance, the efforts detailed in this paper and the Pterodactyl project as a whole will help entry vehicle system designers determine suitable control architectures for integration with DEVs and other entry vehicle types.

Description: The proposed poster will highlight two NASA developed entry technologies that are enablers for Ice Giant Missions. They are: (1) Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET), and (2) Adaptable, Deployable, Entry, and Placement Technology (ADEPT), a mechanically deployable entry system. HEEET development is complete and is at TRL 6. HEEET is ready for Ice Giant in situ probe missions, and HEEET is an enabler for either direct ballistic entry or entry from Orbit. NASA plans to sustain the HEEET capability as it is needed for Venus, Saturn and higher speed sample return missions in addition to Ice Giant Missions. The emerging recognition among the scientific community that by delivering the probe from orbit will allow for simultaneous in-situ and orbital measurement can be enabled by aerocapture using ADEPT. The drag modulated aerocapture (DMA) with ADEPT is the simplest approach that can deliver an orbiter and probe together and without the significant penalty associated with propulsive insertion. Studies performed by JPL and NASA Ames teams point to this very promising possibility. Numerous DMA with ADEPT studies point to its applicability to small spacecraft missions as well as Ice Giant missions. The poster will present the current state of readiness of HEEET, ADEPT and DMA.

Description: The highest priority science goals for Ice Giant missions are: 1) Interior structure of the Planet, and 2) Bulk composition that includes isotopes and noble gases. The interaction between the planetary interior and the atmosphere requires sustained global measurements. Noble gas and Isotope measurements require in situ measurement. Drag modulated aerocapture utilizing ADEPT offers more mass delivered to the Ice Giants than with propulsive orbit insertion. The Galileo Probe entered at a hot spot which created interpretation challenges. Juno is providing valuable orbital measurements, but without in situ measurements the story is incomplete. Planetary scientists interested in Ice Giant missions should perform mission design studies with these new Entry System technologies to assess the feasibility within the context of the international collaboration framework. A mission architecture that includes probe(s) along with an orbiting spacecraft can deploy the probes at the desired location while taking simultaneous measurements from orbit to provide invaluable data that can correlate both global and local measurements. Entry System Technologies currently being developed by NASA are poised to enable missions that position the Orbiter & Probes through drag modulated aerocapture (ADEPT), and HEEET enables the Probes to survive the extreme environments encountered for entry into the atmospheric interior.

Description: Favorable indications of massive quantities of water on Mars have initiated studies of potential changes to human Mars missions. Using a technique known as a Rodriguez Well to melt the ice, store the resulting water in a subsurface ice cavity until needed, and then pump water to the surface for use is one potential means to effect these changes. A computer simulation of the Rodriguez Well in a terrestrial environment is one of the engineering tools being used to characterize the performance of this type of well on Mars. An experiment at the NASA Johnson Space Center is gathering data for convective heat transfer and evaporation rates at Mars surface conditions so that this computer simulation can be properly modified to predict performance on Mars. While quantitative results await processing, tests have indicated that a pool of water can be maintained at 1C to 2 C while at Mars surface temperatures and pressures.

Description: This paper presents a trade study method used to evaluate and down-select from a set of guidance and control (G&C) system designs for a mechanically deployable entry vehicle (DEV). The Pterodactyl project, funded by NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), was prompted by the challenge to develop an effective G&C system for a vehicle without a backshell, which is the case for DEVs. For the DEV, the project assumed a specific aeroshell geometry pertaining to an Adaptable, Deployable, Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT) vehicle, which was successfully developed by STMD prior to this study. The Pterodactyl project designed three different G&C systems for the vehicle's precise entry, which this paper briefly discusses. This paper details the Figures of Merit (FOMs) and metrics used during the course of the project's G&C system assessment. Each G&C configuration was traded against the three FOMs categories: G&C system performance, affordability and life cycle costs, and safety and mission success. The relative importance of the FOMs was determined from the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which was used to develop weights that were combined with quantitative design metrics and engineering judgement to rank the G&C systems against one another. This systematic method takes into consideration the project's input while simultaneously reducing unintentional judgement bias and ultimately was used to select a single G&C design for the project to continue pursuing in the next prototyping and testing phase.

Description: This paper presents the trade study method used to evaluate and downselect from a set of guidance and control (G&C) system designs for a mechanically Deployable Entry Vehicle (DEV). The Pterodactyl project was prompted by the challenge to develop an effective G&C system for a vehicle without a backshell, which is the case for DEVs. For the DEV, the project assumed a specific aeroshell geometry pertaining to an Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) vehicle, which was successfully developed by NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) prior to this study. The Pterodactyl project designed three different entry G&C systems for precision targeting. This paper details the Figures of Merit (FOMs) and metrics used during the course of the projects G&C system assessment. The relative importance of the FOMs was determined from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which was used to develop weights that were combined with quantitative design metrics and engineering judgement to rank the G&C systems against one another. This systematic method takes into consideration the projects input while simultaneously reducing unintentional judgement bias and ultimately was used to select a single G&C design for the project to pursue in the next design phase.