ALBERT

Description: Limestone aeolianites constitute karstic aquifers covering much of the western and southern Australian coastal fringe. They are a key groundwater resource for a range of industries such as winery and tourism, and provide important ecosystem services such as habitat for stygofauna. Moreover, recharge estimation is important for understanding the water cycle, for contaminant transport, for water management and for stalagmite-based paleoclimate reconstructions. Caves offer a natural inception point to observe both the long-term groundwater recharge and the preferential movement of water through the unsaturated zone of such limestone. With the availability of automated drip rate logging systems and remote sensing techniques, it is now possible to deploy the combination of these methods for larger scale studies of infiltration processes within a cave. In this study, we utilize a spatial survey of automated cave drip monitoring in two large chambers of the Golgotha Cave, South-West Western Australia (SWWA), with the aim of better understanding infiltration water movement and the relationship between infiltration, stalactite morphology and unsaturated zone recharge. By applying morphological analysis of ceiling features from Terrestrial LiDAR (T-LiDAR) data, coupled with drip time series and climate data from 2012–2014, we demonstrate the nature of the relationships between infiltration through fractures in the limestone and unsaturated zone recharge. Similarities between drip-rate time series are interpreted in terms of flow patterns, cave chamber morphology and lithology. Moreover, we develop a new technique to estimate recharge in large scale caves, engaging flow classification to determine the cave ceiling area covered by each flow category and drip data for the entire observation period, to calculate the total volume of cave discharge. This new technique can be applied to other cave sites to identify highly focused areas of recharge and can help to better estimate the total recharge volume.

Description: This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

Description: For the purposes of developing optimal emissions control strategies, efficient approaches are needed to identify the major sources or groups of sources that contribute to elevated ozone (O3) concentrations. Source-based apportionment techniques implemented in photochemical grid models track sources through the physical and chemical processes important to the formation and transport of air pollutants. Photochemical model source apportionment has been used to track source impacts of specific sources, groups of sources (sectors), sources in specific geographic areas, and stratospheric and lateral boundary inflow on O3. The implementation and application of a source apportionment technique for O3 and its precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are described here. The Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) O3 approach is a hybrid of source apportionment and source sensitivity in that O3 production is attributed to precursor sources based on O3 formation regime (e.g., for a NOx-sensitive regime, O3 is apportioned to participating NOx emissions). This implementation is illustrated by tracking multiple emissions source sectors and lateral boundary inflow. NOx, VOC, and O3 attribution to tracked sectors in the application are consistent with spatial and temporal patterns of precursor emissions. The O3 ISAM implementation is further evaluated through comparisons of apportioned ambient concentrations and deposition amounts with those derived from brute force zero-out scenarios, with correlation coefficients ranging between 0.58 and 0.99 depending on specific combination of target species and tracked precursor emissions. Low correlation coefficients occur for chemical regimes that have strong nonlinearity in O3 sensitivity, which demonstrates different functionalities between source apportionment and zero-out approaches, where appropriate use depends on whether source attribution or source sensitivity is desired.

Description: Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Description: The CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) passenger aircraft observatory performed in situ measurements at 10–12 km altitude in the South Asian summer monsoon anticyclone between June and September 2008. These measurements enable us to investigate this atmospheric region, which so far has mostly been observed from satellites, using the broad suite of trace gases and aerosols measured by CARIBIC. Elevated levels of a range of atmospheric pollutants were recorded e.g. carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen oxides, aerosol particles and several volatile organic compounds. The measurements provide detailed information about the chemical composition of air in different parts of the monsoon anticyclone, particularly of ozone precursors. While covering a range of 3500 km inside the monsoon anticyclone, CARIBIC observations show remarkable consistency, i.e. with regular latitudinal patterns of trace gases during the entire monsoon period. Trajectory calculations indicate that these air masses originated mainly from South Asia and Mainland Southeast Asia. Using the CARIBIC trace gas and aerosol measurements in combination with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART we investigated the characteristics of monsoon outflow and the chemical evolution of air masses during transport. Estimated photochemical ages of the air were found to agree well with transport times from a source region east of 95° E. The photochemical ages of the air in the southern part of the monsoon anticyclone were consistently younger (less than 7 days) and the air masses mostly in an ozone forming chemical regime. In its northern part the air masses were older (up to 13 days) and had unclear ozone formation or destruction potential. Based on analysis of forward trajectories several receptor regions were identified. In addition to predominantly westward transport, we found evidence for efficient transport (within 10 days) to the Pacific and North America, particularly during June and September, and also of cross-tropopause exchange, which was strongest during June and July. Westward transport to Africa and further to the Mediterranean was the main pathway during July.

Description: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations utilizing the volatility basis set (VBS) treatment for organic aerosols (CMAQ-VBS) were evaluated against measurements collected at routine monitoring networks (Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE)) and those collected during the 2010 California at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) field campaign to examine important sources of organic aerosol (OA) in southern California. CMAQ-VBS (OA lumped by volatility, semivolatile POA) underpredicted total organic carbon (OC) at CSN (−25.5 % Normalized Median Bias (NMdnB)) and IMPROVE (−63.9 % NMdnB) locations and total OC was underpredicted to a greater degree compared to the CMAQ-AE6 (9.9 and −55.7 % NMdnB, respectively; semi-explicit OA treatment, SOA lumped by parent hydrocarbon, nonvolatile POA). However, comparisons to aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements collected at Pasadena, CA indicated that CMAQ-VBS better represented the diurnal profile and the primary/secondary split of OA. CMAQ-VBS secondary organic aerosol (SOA) underpredicted the average measured AMS oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA, a surrogate of SOA) concentration by a factor of 5.2 (4.7 μg m−3 measured vs. 0.9 μg m−3 modeled), a considerable improvement to CMAQ-AE6 SOA predictions, which were approximately 24× lower than the average AMS OOA concentration. We use two new methods, based on species ratios and on a simplified SOA parameterization from the observations, to apportion the SOA underprediction for CMAQ-VBS to too slow photochemical oxidation (estimated as 1.5× lower than observed at Pasadena using − log (NOx: NOy)), low intrinsic SOA formation efficiency (low by 1.6 to 2× for Pasadena), and too low emissions or too high dispersion for the Pasadena site (estimated to be 1.6 to 2.3× too low/high). The first and third factors will be similar for CMAQ-AE6, while the intrinsic SOA formation efficiency for that model is estimated to be too low by about 7×. For CMAQ-VBS, 90 % of the anthropogenic SOA mass formed was attributed to aged secondary semivolatile vapors (70 % originating from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and 20 % from intermediate volatility compounds (IVOCs)). From source-apportioned model results, we found most of the CMAQ-VBS modeled POA at the Pasadena CalNex site was attributable to meat cooking emissions (48 %, and consistent with a substantial fraction of cooking OA in the observations), compared to 18 % from gasoline vehicle emissions, 13 % from biomass burning (in the form of residential wood combustion), and 8 % from diesel vehicle emissions. All "other" inventoried emission sources (e.g. industrial/point sources) comprised the final 13 %. The CMAQ-VBS semivolatile POA treatment underpredicted AMS hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) + cooking-influenced OA (CIOA) at Pasadena by a factor of 1.8 (1.16 μg m−3 modeled vs. 2.05 μg m−3 observed) compared to a factor of 1.4 overprediction of POA in CMAQ-AE6, but did well to capture the AMS diurnal profile of HOA and CIOA, with the exception of the midday peak. We estimated that using the National Emission Inventory (NEI) POA emissions without scaling to represent SVOCs underestimates SVOCs by ~1.7×.

Description: Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) biospheric processes is of great importance because the terrestrial exchange drives the seasonal and inter-annual variability of CO2 in the atmosphere. Atmospheric inversions based on CO2 concentration measurements alone can only determine net biosphere fluxes, but not differentiate between photosynthesis (uptake) and respiration (production). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) could provide an important additional constraint: it is also taken up by plants during photosynthesis but not emitted during respiration, and therefore is a potential mean to differentiate between these processes. Solar absorption Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometry allows for the retrievals of the atmospheric concentrations of both CO2 and OCS from measured solar absorption spectra. Here, we investigate co-located and quasi-simultaneous FTIR measurements of OCS and CO2 performed at three selected sites located in the Northern Hemisphere. These measurements are compared to simulations of OCS and CO2 using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The OCS simulations are driven by different land biospheric fluxes to reproduce the seasonality of the measurements. Increasing the plant uptake of Kettle et al. (2002a) by a factor of three resulted in the best comparison with FTIR measurements. However, there are still discrepancies in the latitudinal distribution when comparing with HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) data spanning both hemispheres. The coupled biospheric fluxes of OCS and CO2 from the simple biosphere model (SiB) are used in the study and compared to measurements. The CO2 simulation with SiB fluxes agrees with the measurements well, while the OCS simulation reproduced a weaker drawdown than FTIR measurements at selected sites, and a smaller latitudinal gradient in the Northern Hemisphere during growing season. An offset in the timing of the seasonal cycle minimum between SiB simulation and measurements is also seen. Using OCS as a photosynthesis proxy can help to understand how the biospheric processes are reproduced in models and to further understand the carbon cycle in the real world.

Description: Co-located measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) organic carbon, elemental carbon, radiocarbon (14C), speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and OH radical during the CalNex field campaign provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model's representation of organic species from VOCs to particles. Episode averaged daily 23 h average 14C analysis indicate PM2.5 carbon at Pasadena and Bakersfield during the CalNex field campaign was evenly split between contemporary and fossil origin. CMAQ predicts a higher contemporary carbon fraction than indicated by the 14C analysis at both locations. The model underestimates measured PM2.5 organic carbon at both sites with very little (7% in Pasadena) of the modeled mass represented by secondary production, which contrasts with the ambient based SOC/OC fraction of 63% at Pasadena. Measurements and predictions of gas-phase anthropogenic species, such as toluene and xylenes, are generally within a factor of 2, but the corresponding secondary organic carbon (SOC) tracer (2,3-dihydroxy-4-oxo-pentanioc acid) is systematically underpredicted by more than a factor of 2. Monoterpene VOCs and SOCs are underestimated at both sites. Isoprene is underestimated at Pasadena and over predicted at Bakersfield and isoprene SOC mass is underestimated at both sites. Systematic model underestimates in SOC mass coupled with reasonable skill (typically within a factor of 2) in predicting hydroxyl radical and VOC gas phase precursors suggests error(s) in the parameterization of semi-volatile gases to form SOC. Yield values (α) applied to semi-volatile partitioning species were increased by a factor of 4 in CMAQ for a sensitivity simulation, taking in account recent findings of underestimated yields in chamber experiments due to gas wall losses. This sensitivity resulted in improved model performance for PM2.5 organic carbon at both field study locations and at routine monitoring network sites in California. Modeled percent secondary contribution (22% at Pasadena) becomes closer to ambient based estimates but is still too primary compared with ambient estimates at the CalNex sites.

Description: This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs: methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for Northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20 year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon emissions by about 50 and 80%, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with these ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70±0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22±0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22±0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ∼22% to this response and CH4 78%. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90% of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and black carbon (BC) specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, largely because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea-ice responses may counteract the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in Southern Europe, where the surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr-1 (more than 4% of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Description: We compare in situ measurements of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) profiles from the CARIBIC program with the results from the regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem) to investigate the role of local/regional emissions and long-range transport over southern India during the summer monsoon of 2008. WRF-Chem successfully reproduces the general features of O3 and CO distributions over the South Asian region. However, the absolute CO concentrations in lower troposphere are typically underestimated. Here we investigate the influence of local relative to remote emissions through sensitivity simulations. The influence of 50 % enhanced CO emissions over South Asia is found to be 33 % increase in surface CO during June. The influence of enhanced local emissions is found to be smaller (5 %) in the free troposphere, except during September. Local to regional emissions are therefore suggested to play a minor role in the underestimation of CO by WRF-Chem during June–August. In the lower troposphere, ahigh pollution (O3: 146.4 ± 12.8 nmol mol−1, CO: 136.4 ± 12.2 nmol mol−1) event (15 July 2008), not reproduced by the model, is shown to be due to transport of photochemically processed air masses from the boundary layer into southern India. Sensitivity simulation combined with backward trajectories indicates that long-range transport of CO to southern India is significantly underestimated, particularly in air masses from the west, i.e. from Central Africa. This study highlights the need for more aircraft-based measurements over India and adjacent regions and the improvement of emission inventories.