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Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas (2016)

Beven, K. J. ; Almeida, S. ; Aspinall, W. P. ; [weitere]

Copernicus

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2016; 1-74. Published 2016 Jan 15. doi: 10.5194/nhess-2015-295. [early online release]

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Publikationsdatum: 2016-01-15

Beschreibung: This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.

Digitale ISSN: 2195-9269

Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie

Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.

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Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of the issues (2015)

Beven, K. J. ; Aspinall, W. P. ; Bates, P. D. ; [weitere]

Copernicus

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2015; 3(12): 7333-7377. Published 2015 Dec 07. doi: 10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015.

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Publikationsdatum: 2015-12-07

Beschreibung: Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

Digitale ISSN: 2195-9269

Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie

Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.

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Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas (2017)

Beven, Keith J. ; Almeida, Susana ; Aspinall, Willy P. ; [weitere]

Copernicus

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2017; 1-53. Published 2017 Aug 21. doi: 10.5194/nhess-2017-250. [early online release]

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Publikationsdatum: 2017-08-21

Beschreibung: This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 2.

Digitale ISSN: 2195-9269

Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie

Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.

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Meso-scale Simulation of Typhoon Generated Storm Surge: Methodology and Shanghai Case Study (2017)

Dong, Shuyun ; Stephenson, Wayne J. ; Wakes, Sarah ; [weitere]

Copernicus

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2017; 1-18. Published 2017 Mar 15. doi: 10.5194/nhess-2017-34. [early online release]

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Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-15

Beschreibung: The increasing vulnerability of coastal mega-cities to storm surge inundation means both infrastructure and populations are subject to significant threat. Planning for further urban development should include consideration of the changing circumstances in coastal cities to ensure a sustainable future. A sustainable urban plan relies on well preparedness and prediction of future climate change and multiple natural hazards. In light of these needs for urban planning, this paper develops a general method to simulate typhoon generated storm surge at the meso-scale (1–100 km in length). Meso-scale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfil the purpose of planning, and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data, while still providing reasonable accuracy. The case study of Shanghai was chosen to implement this method. The meso-scale simulated results of two historical typhoons not only provides a realistic result at the city level, but is also suitable for implementing a large amount of simulations for future scenario studies. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world to examine the effect of future climate change on typhoon generated storm surge, even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.

Digitale ISSN: 2195-9269

Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie

Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.

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On the relevance of extremal dependence for spatial statistical modelling of natural hazards (2018)

Dawkins, Laura C. ; Stephenson, David B.

Copernicus

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2018; 1-28. Published 2018 Apr 23. doi: 10.5194/nhess-2018-102. [early online release]

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Publikationsdatum: 2018-04-23

Beschreibung: Natural hazard loss portfolios with exposure over a region are sensitive to the dependency between extreme values of the key hazard variable at different spatial locations. It is therefore important to correctly identify and quantify dependency to avoid poor quantification of risk. This study demonstrates how bivariate extreme value tail dependency methods can be used together in a novel way to explore and quantify extremal dependency in spatial hazard fields. A relationship between dependency and loss is obtained by deriving how the probability distribution of conceptual loss depends on the tail dependency coefficient. The approaches are illustrated by applying them to 6103 historical European windstorm footprints (spatial maps of 3-day maximum gust speeds). We find there is little evidence of asymptotic extremal dependency in windstorm footprints. Furthermore, empirical extremal properties and conceptual loss distributions between pairs of locations are shown to be well reproduced using Gaussian copulas but not by extremally-dependent models such as Gumbel copulas. It is conjectured that the lack of asymptotic dependence is a generic property of turbulent flows, which may extend to other spatially continuous hazards such as heat waves and air pollution. These results motivate the potential of using Gaussian process (geostatistical) models for efficient simulation of hazard fields.

Digitale ISSN: 2195-9269

Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie

Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.

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