ALBERT

Description: Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between extremely wet and dry conditions, can bring significant potential impacts on the coupled human and natural system. However, observed and projected changes in sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash occurrences remain not quantified comprehensively, and response of precipitation whiplash to anthropogenic forcings remains unknown. Here we detect and attribute changes in precipitation whiplashes over the historical and RCP8.5 scenario future periods using a series of daily precipitation reanalyses and simulations. Results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions have increased occurrences of precipitation whiplash, despite opposing influences of anthropogenic aerosols (AER) emissions to decreasing occurrences. Anthropogenic GHG emissions will bring ~20% increases in occurrences of precipitation whiplashes (11% increases in occurrences of shifts from dry extremes to wet extremes and 9% increases in occurrences of shifts from wet extremes to dry extremes), given anthropogenic GHG emissions are projected to outpace of anthropogenic AER emissions after the 2020s sharply. Furthermore, changes in precipitation whiplashes are concurrent with changes in precipitation totals and extremes, despite modest spatial variability of individual trends and concurrences. These changes in precipitation regimes will potentially challenge the current water resources management and disaster prevention actions.