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  • English  (14)
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  • English  (14)
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  • 1
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    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (274 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604994
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/8/
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume I (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is one of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. A biography of Frank Evison and a list of his publications is included, as well as review papers and new research papers in the field. The volume includes papers related to Frank's most abiding interest of precursory earthquake swarms. The research contributions cover a range of current forecasting methods such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock model, the Every Earthquake a precursor According to Scale model, Pattern Informatics, Reverse Tracing of Precursors, stochastic models of elastic rebound, and methods for handling multiple precursors. The methods considered employ a variety of statistical approaches to using previous seismicity to forecast future earthquakes, including regional and global earthquake likelihood models and alarm-type forecasts. The forecast time-frames of interest range from the short time-frame associated with clustering of aftershocks to the long time-frame associated with recurrence of major earthquakes. A recurring theme is the assessment of forecasting performance, whether by likelihood scores, skill scores, error diagrams, or relative operating characteristic tests. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (250 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604970
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/6/
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    An integrated earthquake catalogue for Aotearoa New Zealand and its implications for seismic hazard (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-31
    Description: The New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was recently overhauled and revised in a three-year international effort. Of the many inputs into the NSHM, three of the most important ones are the total magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the near-shore upper-plate region (e.g. the 2010-16 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikoura sequences), the MFD on the Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction zone, and the MFD on the Puysegur subduction zone (e.g. the 2009 Dusky Sound earthquake). To constrain these MFDs, we need good earthquake magnitudes, good event depths, and focal mechanisms (the latter two in order to distinguish whether earthquakes in the subduction regions are upper-plate, interface or intraslab). Recent work (Christophersen et al., 2022) has greatly improved the earthquake magnitudes in the New Zealand catalogue. Starting from their catalogue, we import higher-quality event depths, focal mechanisms, and locations and magnitudes from several relocated and global catalogues. Next, we use event depths, focal mechanisms, 3D models of the Hikurangi and Puysegur subduction interfaces, and relative plate motion directions to classify earthquakes as upper-plate, interface or intraslab. Then using this integrated catalogue, we estimate the MFD of earthquakes in the upper-plate region incorporating data back to 1843, balanced with the better data in the more recent catalogue. We estimate the MFDs on the Hikurangi–Kermadec and Puysegur subduction zones using a simplified approach with more recent data. Here, we will describe ongoing work in this area, including incorporating new earthquake data and describing earthquake clustering and rate uncertainty in less model-driven ways.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
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    Probabilistic estimates of mean earthquake recurrence interval and its uncertainty on key upper-plate faults in New Zealand (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-09
    Description: A wealth of data about earthquake behaviour in New Zealand has been obtained through numerous paleoseismic, geologic and geodetic studies in the past fifty years. These data have been compiled in the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), respectively within the Paleoseismic Site Database, Community Fault Model (CFM), and Geodetic Deformation Model. Here, we use these data to probabilistically estimate the mean recurrence interval (MRI) of earthquakes on key upper-plate faults at 81 sites throughout New Zealand. First, we take the timings of past earthquakes from the Paleoseismic Site Database and fit the inter-event periods at each site to Brownian Passage Time, lognormal, and Poissonian recurrence models. We iteratively explore wide ranges of possible MRI and dispersion in these models, and thereby derive Bayesian PDFs of both parameters at each site, following the approach of Biasi et al (2015). Then, we take single-event displacement data from the Paleoseismic Site Database, along with geologic and geodetic slip rates from the New Zealand CFM and Geodetic Deformation Model, and estimate MRI an alternate way by dividing each site’s PDF of mean single-event displacement by its PDF of mean slip rate. Finally, at every site where we have both timings data and single-event displacement and slip rate estimates, we multiply the PDFs of MRI from these two methods together to derive a more tightly constrained estimate of MRI and its uncertainty. These estimate formed a key input into the on-fault portion of the NSHM.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Earthquake forecasting in New Zealand: Past, present and future (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-05
    Description: Researchers from New Zealand have engaged in developing and testing earthquake forecasting models for many decades. The existing earthquake forecasting models can be classified into three categories, (1) short-term or aftershock models that describe the decay of the earthquake occurrence rate following a large event, (2) medium-term models that are variations of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) model, which is based on the observation that the size and frequency of earthquake occurrence tends to increase in the vicinity of an upcoming large earthquake and aims to forecast upcoming large events in the coming months to decades, and (3) long-term models. In 2010, following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake that initiated the Canterbury earthquake sequence, GNS Science began to provide earthquake forecasts to the public. There were several further earthquake responses over the years, the largest being the 2011 M6.2 Christchurch earthquake and the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. A new automated seismic processing software, introduced in 2012, caused inconsistencies in the earthquake catalogue, especially with magnitudes. It has been a slow process to resolve these issues. In the meantime, we have been limited to forecast earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger. In the future, we envisage to have an automated system provide regular earthquake forecasts to the public, and to engage more with users to provide the information that they need for decision-making in a seismic crisis and for planning for earthquake resilience.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Summary of the ground-motion characterisation model for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022)
    In:  GNS Science report
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-15
    Description: This document provides a high-level summary of the ground-motion characterisation model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. This includes: development of a New-Zealand-specific ground-motion database; consideration of alternative empirical ground-motion models based on global datasets; two new New-Zealand-specific models that were developed as part of the project; comparisons of the alternative models against observational data; and considered modifications of the ‘base’ models to account for near-fault directivity, back-arc attenuation for subduction earthquakes and treatment of partial correlation within epistemic uncertainty of the considered ‘backbone’ models. Finally, some limitations of the model, resulting from a lack of available datasets and/or timeframes, are discussed in the context of potential immediate avenues for further work.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 7
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    Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy (2023)
    In:  The Seismic Record
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-15
    Description: Earthquake forecasting models express hypotheses about seismogenesis that underpin global and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). An implicit assumption is that the comparatively higher spatiotemporal resolution datasets from which regional models are generated lead to more informative seismicity forecasts than global models, which are however calibrated on greater datasets of large earthquakes. Here, we prospectively assess the ability of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model and 19 time‐independent regional models to forecast M 4.95+ seismicity in California, New Zealand, and Italy from 2014 through 2021, using metrics developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results show that regional models that adaptively smooth small earthquake locations perform best in California and Italy during the evaluation period; however, GEAR1, based on global seismicity and geodesy datasets, performs surprisingly well across all testing regions, ranking first in New Zealand, second in California, and third in Italy. Furthermore, the performance of the models is highly sensitive to spatial smoothing, and the optimal smoothing likely depends on the regional tectonic setting. Acknowledging the limited prospective test data, these results provide preliminary support for using GEAR1 as a global reference M 4.95+ seismicity model that could inform eight‐year regional and global PSHAs.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
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    The Ground-Motion Characterization Model for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2024)
    In:  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-11
    Description: This article summarizes the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development process included establishing a NZ-specific context through the creation of a new ground-motion database, and consideration of alternative ground-motion models (GMMs) that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently developed for global application with or without NZ-specific regionalizations. Explicit attention was given to models employing state-of-the-art approaches in terms of their ability to provide robust predictions when extrapolated beyond the predictor variable scenarios that are well constrained by empirical data alone. We adopted a “hybrid” logic tree that combined both a “weightson- models” approach along with backbone models (i.e., metamodels), the former being the conventional approach to GMC logic tree modeling for NSHM applications using published models, and the latter being increasingly used in research literature and site-specific studies. In this vein, two NZ-specific GMMs were developed employing the backbone model construct. All of the adopted subduction GMMs in the logic tree were further modified from their published versions to include the effects of increased attenuation in the back-arc region; and, all but one model was modified to account for the reduction in ground-motion standard deviations as a result of nonlinear surficial site response. As well as being based on theoretical arguments, these adjustments were implemented as a result of hazard sensitivity analyses using models without these effects, which we consider gave unrealistically high hazard estimates.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Implementing Non-Poissonian Forecasts of Distributed Seismicity into the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2024)
    In:  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-11
    Description: Seismicity usually exhibits a non-Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models, especially when input catalogs must be declustered to obtain a Poisson background rate. In addition, nonstationary behavior and scarce earthquake records in regions of low seismicity can bias hazard estimates that use stationary or spatially precise forecasts. In this work, we implement hazard formulations using forecasts that trade-off spatial precision to account for overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity in the form of uniform rate zones (URZs), which describe rate variability using non-Poisson probabilistic distributions of earthquake numbers. The impact of these forecasts in the hazard space is investigated by implementing a negative- binomial formulation in the OpenQuake hazard software suite, which is adopted by the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. For a 10% exceedance probability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in 50 yr, forecasts that only reduce the spatial precision, that is, stationary Poisson URZ models, cause up to a twofold increase in hazard for low-seismicity regions compared to spatially precise forecasts. Furthermore, the inclusion of non-Poisson temporal processes in URZ models increases the expected PGA by up to three times in low-seismicity regions, whereas the effect on high-seismicity is minimal (∼5%). The hazard estimates presented here highlight the relevance, as well as the feasibility, of incorporating analytical formulations of seismicity that go beyond the inadequate stationary Poisson description of seismicity.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Accounting for the Variability of Earthquake Rates within Low-Seismicity Regions: Application to the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2024)
    In:  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-11
    Description: The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low-seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted to: (1) identify the number of training data necessary for SSMs to perform spatially better than the least-informative Uniform Rate Zone (URZ) models; and (2) describe the rate temporal variability accounting for the overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity. Formally, the strict-stationarity assumption used in traditional forecasts is relaxed into local and incremental stationarity (i.e., a catalog is only stationary in the vicinity of a given time point t) along with self-similar behavior described by a power law. The results reveal rate dispersion up to 10 times higher than predicted by Poisson models and highlight the impact of nonstationarity in assuming a constant mean rate within training-forecast intervals. The temporal rate variability is translated into a reduction of spatial precision by means of URZmodels. First, counting processes are devised to capture rate distributions, considering the rate as a random variable. Second, we devise a data-driven method based on geodetic strain rate to spatially delimit the precision of URZs, assuming that strain/stress rate is related to the timescales of earthquake interactions. Finally, rate distributions are inferred from the available data within each URZ. We provide forecasts for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model update,which can exhibit rates up to ten times higher in low-seismicity regions compared with SSMs. This study highlights the need to consider nonstationarity in seismicity models and underscores the importance of appropriate statistical descriptions of rate variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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