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  • Articles
  • Other Sources  (21)
  • ddc:551.6  (14)
  • 551.7  (7)
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  • 1
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    Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community (2020)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; EURO-CORDEX ; CORDEX ; Climate change ; Regional climate models ; Regional climate modelling
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
    Description: European Union Horizon 2020
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts (2021)
    Nature Publishing Group UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-20
    Description: Megadroughts are notable manifestations of the American Southwest, but not so much of the European climate. By using long-term hydrological and meteorological observations, as well as paleoclimate reconstructions, here we show that central Europe has experienced much longer and severe droughts during the Spörer Minimum (~AD 1400–1480) and Dalton Minimum (~AD 1770–1840), than the ones observed during the 21st century. These two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and enhanced winter atmospheric blocking activity over the British Isles and western part of Europe, concurrent with reduced solar forcing and explosive volcanism. Moreover, we show that the recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium.
    Description: Central Europe experienced long-lasting droughts during the Spörer and Dalton solar minima around AD 1450 and 1800 that were more severe and extensive than those observed in the 21st century, according to palaeoclimate reconstructions.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Climate sciences ; Hydrology ; Central Europe ; megadroughts
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Compound Events in South America Using the CORDEX‐CORE Ensemble: Current Climate Conditions and Future Projections in a Global Warming Scenario (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Climate hazards associated with compound events (CEs) have lately received increasing attention over South America (SA) due to their potential risks and amplification of impacts. This work addressed the evaluation of different temperature‐ and precipitation‐based CE in SA considering the CORDEX‐CORE ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving earth system models (ESMs) in the reference period 1981–2010 and the late 21st century (2070–2099), for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. The assessment focused on model performance for the individual events—heatwaves (HWs), Extreme rainfall (ER) days, and dry‐spells (DSs)—and their compound occurrence in terms of climatological frequency and duration. The spatial patterns of individual events were adequately reproduced by the RCMs, evidencing general overestimations in extreme precipitation intensities. In terms of CE, the frequencies of coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) were remarkable over central‐eastern Brazil and southern SA (southeastern SA). The main features of CE were generally well‐simulated by the RCMs, although they presented regional differences such as an underestimation of the maximum frequencies of these two CE in northeastern Brazil and southeastern SA, respectively. The high‐resolution information was generally in line with the larger‐scale driving ESMs. The climate change signal analysis generally showed robust future increases in CE frequency and duration in different areas of SA, as for coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) over northern SA and southern Brazil (southeastern SA). This was mostly consistent among the RCMs ensemble and notably strengthened in the worst‐case scenario (RCP 8.5).
    Description: Key Points: Coincident heatwaves and dry‐spells (DSs) and sequential DSs and extreme rainfall are remarkable compound events (CEs) over South America. Regional climate models can reproduce the frequency and duration of CEs, but with some regional differences. CEs are generally expected to be more frequent in the late 21st century, particularly in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.
    Description: UBA Secretaría de Ciencia y Técnica, Universidad de Buenos Aires http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010253
    Description: Argentinian ANPCyT
    Description: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5
    Description: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; extreme events ; temperature ; precipitation ; regional climate models ; CORDEX ; climate change
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in Northern Greenland Dust Concentration Variability During the Last 400 Years (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-13
    Description: Statistical analysis of reanalysis and observed data reveals that high dust surface mass concentration in northern Greenland is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation like pattern in its negative phase in the North Pacific as well as with La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific region. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific realm resemble the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The associated atmospheric circulation pattern, in the form of a wave‐train from the North Pacific to the Eurasian continent, favors enhanced dust uptake and transport toward the northern Greenland. Similar patterns are associated with a low‐resolution stacked record of five Ca2+ ice cores, that is, ngt03C93.2 (B16), ngt14C93.2 (B18), ngt27C94.2 (B21), GISP2−B, and NEEM‐2011‐S1, from northern Greenland, a proxy for regional dust concentration, during the last 400 years. We argue that northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used as proxies for the IPO and related teleconnections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Observational and modeling studies show that, during the observational period, interannual to multidecadal dust concentration variability is related to the dominant modes of climate variability at these time scales. Here we show that Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) signal is robustly recorded in low‐resolution dust ice core records from the northern Greenland during the last 400 years. We argue that northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used to put the IPO activity and related teleconnections during the observational period into a long‐term perspective.
    Description: Key Points: Northern Greenland dust concentration variability shows global teleconnections during the instrumental period. The most stable pattern associated with northern Greenland ice core dust variability is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used as a complementary source of information about IPO during the past.
    Description: Changing Earth—Sustaining our Future
    Description: Helmholtz Climate Initiative—REKLIM
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.57092
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.57294
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.107285
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.55536
    Description: https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe.html
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2c.html
    Description: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/33092
    Description: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=EKF400_v2.0
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; dust concentration ; northern Greenland ; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ; ice cores
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future? (2020)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for 〉 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.
    Description: African Union Commission
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; THI ; Climate change ; Dairy cattle ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Multi‐model assessment of sub‐seasonal predictive skill for year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The prediction skill of sub‐seasonal forecast models is evaluated for seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European region. Reforecasts based on models from three prediction centers are considered and verified against weather regimes obtained from ERA‐Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes as a proxy for the large‐scale circulation outperforms the prediction of raw geopotential height. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all three models, especially in winter. On the other hand, the skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all three models, followed by the Scandinavian blocking regime. Furthermore, all models struggle to forecast flow situations that cannot be assigned to a weather regime (so‐called no regime), in comparison with weather regimes. Related to this, variability in the occurrence of no regime, which is most frequent in the transition seasons, partly explains the predictability gap between transition seasons and winter and summer. We also show that models have difficulties in discriminating between related regimes. This can lead to misassignments in the predicted regime during flow situations in which related regimes manifest. Finally, we document the changes in skill between model versions, showing important improvements for the ECMWF and NCEP models. This study is the first multi‐model assessment of year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. It advances our understanding of the predictive skill for weather regimes, reveals strengths and weaknesses of each model, and thus increases our confidence in the forecasts and their usefulness for decision‐making.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This study is the first sub‐seasonal multi‐model assessment of seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all models, especially in winter. The skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all models, followed by Scandinavian blocking. Variability in the occurrence of no regime partly explains the predictability gap between the transition seasons and winter and summer. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4512-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4512:qj4512-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Description: AXPO Solutions AGN/A
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; blocking ; Europe ; North Atlantic oscillation ; windows of opportunity
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Evidence of Presence of the Eltville Tuff Layer in Dutsch and Belgian Limbourg and the Consequences for the Loess Stratigraphy (2011)
    Geozon Science Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Anfang 1979 ist zum ersten Male in den Niederlanden ein vulkanischer Tuff in den Lößablagerungen von Süd-Limburg gefunden worden (Meijs 1980a). Auf Grund der stratigraphischen Lage, des makroskopischen Aussehens und der mineralogischen Zusammensetzung wurde dieser Tuff mit dem Eltviller Tuff korreliert. In dieser Veröffentlichung werden die Korrelierungsbeweisgründe eingehend behandelt und mit den Ergebnissen mikromorphologischer und röntgenologischer Untersuchungen ergänzt. Die Entdeckung des Eltviller Tuffs in dieser Region gerade unter dem Kesselt-Paläoboden (= Nagelbeek Horizont) bedeutet, daß dieser Paläoboden ein stratigraphisches Äquivalent des E4-Naßbodens ist. Dieses steht im Widerspruch mit der in Belgien und den Niederlanden herrschenden Ansicht, laut der der Kesselt-Paläoboden mit dem im Denekamp Interstadial geformten Stillfried-B Paläoboden korreliert wird (z. B. Zagwijn & Paepe 1968). Der letztgenannte Paläoboden liegt aber stratigraphisch unter dem Eltviller Tuff und ist ungefähr 10.000 Jahr älter als der E4-Naßboden (Semmel 1967, Vogel & van der Hammen 1967).
    Description: research
    Keywords: 551.7 ; VAR 000 ; Glazialgeologie ; loess ; weichselian ; grain size distribution ; heavy mineral ; interpretation ; parent material ; correlation ; pit section ; evidence presence ; eltville tuff layer ; kesselt paleosol ; interstadial ; x-ray diffraction analysis ; dutsch ; belgian limbourg
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    An Outline of the Quaternary Stratigraphy of Austria (2012)
    Geozon Science Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-07
    Description: Es wird ein Überblick über die in Österreich verwendete Quartär-Stratigraphie gegeben. Die stratigraphische Gliederung der kartierbaren Sedimenteinheiten basiert teilweise auf Kriterien der Lithostratigraphie (lithologischer Eigenschaften) und jenen der Allostratigraphie (z.B. Diskonitinuitäten). Für das Altpleistozän (2.58–0.78 Ma) fehlen bis jetzt Spuren einer Vergletscherung. Die wenigen und isolierten Sedimentvorkommen belegen fluviatile Akkumulation und Lössablagerung in der Umgebung der Flüsse. Paläomagnetisch korrelierte Löss-Paläoboden – Sequenzen wie das Profil Stranzendorf mit der Gauss/Matuyama – Grenze bzw. Neogen/Quartär – Grenze dokumentieren in Übereinstimmung mit den globalen δ18O Werten etwas wärmere Bedingungen als im Mittelpleistozän (0.78–0.13 Ma). Vier Großvergletscherungen (Günz, Mindel, Riß und Würm) sind für Mittelpleistozän und Jungpleistozän belegt. Diese sind mit Sedimenten aus der Vorstoßphase überlagert von Grundmoräne, Endmoränen im Alpenvorland und damit verknüpfte Terrassenschüttungen sowie Lössakkumulation dokumentiert. Daraus ist die klimagesteuerte Sedimentation im Zusammenhang mit dem Vorstoß der Gletscher, der Ausbreitung des Permafrostes und der Frostschuttbildung bis ins Vorland erkennbar. Die jüngsten Großvergletscherungen Riß und Würm werden aufgrund geochronologischer Daten mit den Marinen Isotopenstufen (MIS) 6 und 2 korreliert. Für Günz und Mindel scheint eine Gleichzeitigkeit mit den Phasen massiver globaler Klimaverschlechterung während MIS 16 und MIS 12 plausibel. Dokumente für die schwächeren Glaziale wurden bisher nur in Lössprofilen (z.B. Krems Schießstätte) gefunden.
    Description: research
    Keywords: 551.7 ; glaciation ; glacial deposits ; stratigraphy ; quaternary ; alps ; middle pleistocene ; early pleistocene ; late pleistocene ; landscape evolution
    Language: English
    Type: article , Verlagsversion
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  • 10
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    Deglaciation of a large piedmont lobe glacier in comparison with a small mountain glacier – new insight from surface exposure dating. Two studies from SE Germany (2011)
    Geozon Science Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-05
    Description: 10Be-Oberflächenaltersdatierungen von Moränenblöcken der Würm-Maximalvergletscherung und der Deglaziationzeit ergaben in zwei verschiedenen Regionen Süddeutschlands unterschiedliche Altersverteilungen trotz gleicher klimatischer Randbedingungen. Im Bayerischen Wald zeigen die Moränenalter eines kleinen Talgletschers eine präzise und konsistente spätwürmzeitliche Chronostratigraphie. Oberflächenexpositionsalter von Moränen des Isar-Loisach und Inngletschers in den Ostalpen weisen auf eine hochwürmzeitliche Moränenablagerung deutlich vor 18.0±1.9 ka und einer anschliessenden Moränenstabilisierung hin. Beide glaziale Systeme (Mittelgebirgs-Talgletscher und alpines Eisstromnetz) erreichten ihre maximale Ausdehnung im Spätwürm (MIS 2). Trotz der weitgehenden Übereinstimmung war ihre Reaktionszeit auf Klimafluktuationen sehr unterschiedlich: der kleine Talgletscher reagierte empfindlicher auf klimatische Änderungen als das alpine Eisstromnetz. Ein synchrones Verhalten zeigten die Gletscher im Bayerischen Wald sowie in den Ostalpen erst im Spätglazial um 16–15 ka (H 1), als in beiden Gebieten Talgletscher existierten. Die unterschiedlichen Altersverteilungen der spätwürmzeitlichen Chronologien in den beiden Würmgletscher-Endmoränengebieten werden mit Unterschieden der Eisdynamik und der geomorphologischen Prozesse bei der Moränenstabilisierung sowie mit Phasen intensiver Hangprozesse infolge periglazialer Aktivität und Toteis-Tauens erklärt. Die Ergebnisse sind für Probennahmestrategien und Dateninterpretation von Moränen-Oberflächenaltern von großer Bedeutung.
    Description: research
    Keywords: 551.7 ; VAR 000 ; Glazialgeologie ; dead ice ; isar-loisach glacier ; Bavarian Forest ; Eastern Alps ; Inn glacier ; Würm type section ; cosmogenic dating ; moraine degradation
    Language: English
    Type: article , publishedVersion
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