ALBERT

Description: This IASS study takes an in-depth look at Covid-19's impacts on the global energy sector, and then zooms in to the country level to see individual country effects and responses. The case studies are compiled by energy researchers in Argentina, China, Germany, India, Israel, and the United States.

Description: People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the ongoing transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents results from a project entitled “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic”, which employed ‘Strategic Foresight’, a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project’s objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.

Description: In this report, we identify the needs of the energy model users and the users of energy model results in policy, industry, civil society, and science, both in the present and future. Based on a comprehensive literature review, qualitative interviews in five European jurisdictions, a survey, and a workshop, we identify what different user groups need from energy models: What types of questions, input, and results are useful to them? We also identify user needs regarding the modeling platform of SENTINEL: How do we need to define such a platform to make it worthwhile for potential users?

Description: This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in two main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more common geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models.

Description: The decarbonisation of the European energy system is a large-scale transformation, which demands not only for a techno-economic feasibility analysis, but also for an assessment of the social and political feasibility and environmental impacts. However, most energy models are not able to fully represent the social and political developments and dynamics of the energy transition, such as preferences, acceptance and behavioural changes of citizens and decision-makers. To address this shortcoming, we developed QTDIAN (Quantification of socio-Technological DIffusion and sociAl constraiNts) − a toolbox of qualitative and quantitative descriptions of socio-technical and political aspects of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present and discuss the linking of QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, and the energy system model Euro-Calliope. The purpose of linking the models is to integrate the outputs from QTDIAN into the energy models to allow for an empirically based and thus more realistic analysis of energy system trajectories, with a higher relevance for informing pending policy decisions. The central question we address is: How can the social storylines and quantifications from QTDIAN be transferred into energy demand and systems models? We show several ways how QTDIAN’s quantified variables allow for a direct application of the storylines into the modelling process of Euro-Calliope, DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM. The qualitative storylines ensure that modellers do not create technically feasible energy systems that are outside the realms of social or political realities. In addition, the quantitative data can be used to improve the accuracy and especially the policy relevance of the modelling results by providing specific estimates for social and political variables and constraints. However, not all aspects of QTDIAN could be integrated because not all aspects of the storylines could be quantified, and the models to which QTDIAN links in this deliverable are not able to capitalise on all QTDIAN outputs. We identified further requirements for data, including different temporal and spatial scales. We conclude that the linking of QTDIAN with energy demand and energy systems models is a promising approach to better represent socio-political drivers and barriers for technology changes and climate change mitigation measures. We will run the models with the integrated linkage with QTDIAN to evaluate the outcomes and added value of the linking in the context of SENTINEL case studies (WP7).

Description: Deliberative Mini-Publics (DMPs) employ randomly selected groups of citizens, who work together to develop recommendations on specific issues. In democratic practice, DMPs, which include Citizens’ Assemblies, Citizens’ Councils, Deliberative Panels, Citizens’ Jury, etc., are usually called into action by policymakers to complement representative decision-making. The following describes how DMPs work, why they are used, and what determines their success.

Description: This synthesis report presents the results of the workshop “Models for the European Energy Transition: Your Questions, Your Needs!”, held on the 1st of October 2020. The insights of the workshop will contribute to the development of new and improvements of existing energy system models of SENTINEL. Additionally, the findings will support the development of the SENTINEL platform that will allow a wide range of decision-makers to address their critical energy system design challenges better.

Description: The STRONG High Seas project has published a Glossary of Ocean Governance Terms to provide decision-makers and other stakeholders, including the private sector, scientific communities, civil society, and traditional communities, with a reference lexicon on ocean governance related terms to facilitate understanding when engaging in negotiations and implementation of international and national policies and regulations. As in most areas of knowledge or activity, the field of ocean governance is associated with specialized terminology, or jargon. The use of specific terms is essential for clear communication, particularly among peers, but also to a wider audience. However, as one area becomes more specialized and consequently the use of jargons increases, the challenge for comprehensible communication also grows. A shared understanding of terms by stakeholders engaging in policy instruments is particularly critical. Texts of policy instruments and of decisions (or similar documents, such as Resolutions or measures) under these instruments are, in some cases, legally-binding, which makes States Parties generally abide by them. The same word could have different meaning to different audiences and at different times. Having a common understanding of a term will, therefore, ease communication and, ultimately, help decision-makers achieve agreement in a political context.

Description: Achieving the EU’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, the Energy Union Strategy, and the European Green Deal, requires a significant transformation of current energy systems. Renewable energy is a major component of this transition, and thus, policymakers face the challenge of making decisions about new renewables-dominated energy systems. Because real world experimentation is in large scale not possible, models can serve as ‘laboratories’ by allowing policymakers to explore different decarbonisation options in a virtual world and generate a better understanding of the policy domain. While many energy policies are backed by computational models, we do not know exactly how and when policymakers use models, and to what extend policymakers influence modelling performed. We take these gaps as a starting point to empirically investigate the twofold processual interaction between computational energy modelling and energy policymaking.