ALBERT

Description:    Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y Authors Melanie Kunz, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Lorenz Hurni, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X