Publication Date:
2016-05-05
Description:
In Europe, common input data types for seismic hazard evaluation include earthquake catalogues, seismic zonation models and ground motion models, all with well-constrained epistemic uncertainties. In contrast, neotectonic deformation models and their related uncertainties are rarely considered in earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. In this study, for the first time in Europe, we developed a seismic hazard model based exclusively on active fault and geodynamic deformation models. We applied it to the External Dinarides, a slow-deforming fold-and-thrust belt in the Central Mediterranean. The two deformation models furnish consistent long-term earthquake rates above the M w 4.7 threshold on a latitude/longitude grid with 0.2° spacing. Results suggest that the use of deformation models is a valid alternative to empirical-statistical approaches in earthquake forecasting in slow-deforming regions of Europe. Furthermore, we show that the variability of different deformation models has a comparable effect on the peak ground motion acceleration uncertainty as do the ground motion prediction equations.
Keywords:
Geodynamics and Tectonics
Print ISSN:
0956-540X
Electronic ISSN:
1365-246X
Topics:
Geosciences
Published by
Oxford University Press
on behalf of
The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
