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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global climate change in the instrumental period
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90019-1
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90026-4
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate and some cause-oriented proposals for sufficiently reducing this share
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90027-2
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change and human history. Some indications from Europe, ad 400-1400
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90020-5
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The carbon budget of Canadian forests: A sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90022-1
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90039-6
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90038-8
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Beyond the year 2000, more tornadoes in western Canada? Implications from the historical record (1995)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 12 (1995), S. 19-27 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Tornadoes ; climate change ; prairies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A comparison of tornado frequency in western Canada before and after 1980 suggests that tornado frequency increases (decreases) with positive (negative) mean monthly temperature anomalies. If climate warming occurs due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the inference that more tornadoes will occur seems reasonable.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00605279
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Solar history and human affairs (1994)
    Springer
    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 23-35 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Keywords: solar variation ; climate change ; global climate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Ethnic Sciences
    Notes: Abstract Historical research at different time scales from 10s to 1000s of years suggests that solar variation may have influences on global climate. Climate change has had significant impacts on cultures during these periods. Very high solar output during the Medieval Optimum would be expected to have particularly large impacts on peoples of that time as sunspot numbers are thought to have reached one third again any values observed in the current century. Certain other impacts can be inferred from modern populations. For example, the higher parts of the solar cycle are associated with greater incidence of skin melanoma.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02168761
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Introduction: A perspective from the humanities-science boundary (1994)
    Springer
    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 1-22 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Keywords: climate change ; episodes ; radiation balance ; global change ; historical ecology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Ethnic Sciences
    Notes: Abstract The articles in this special issue range across such influences on climate as solar emissions, orbital precession, atmosphere, oceans, and precipitation, and generally approach, each in some context, human implications of these phenomena. The common underlying theme of all of the papers is the effect the phenomena have on radiation balance as measured by global average temperature. This introductory paper undertakes a formulation of radiation balance theory that makes it serviceable to students of regional science. The objective is to go beyond inference of cause and effect by correlation to causal accounts of cause and effect through regional climatic and cultural processes. This is accomplished primarily by revisualization of the energy system with regions as dependent spatiotemporal entities, and temporally through a protocol for regional episode definition.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02168760
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On integrating climatic change and culture change studies (1994)
    Springer
    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 115-128 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Keywords: climate change ; culture change ; models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Ethnic Sciences
    Notes: Abstract In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02168766
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Litter mass loss rates in pine forests of Europe and Eastern United States: some relationships with climate and litter quality (1993)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 20 (1993), S. 127-159 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: decomposition ; litter mass loss ; climate ; climate change ; pine ; actual evapotranspiration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The purpose of this study was to relate regional variation in litter mass-loss rates (first year) in pine forests to climate across a large, continental-scale area. The variation in mass-loss rate was analyzed using 39 experimental sites spanning climatic regions from the subarctic to subtropical and Mediterranean: the latitudinal gradient ranged from 31 °N to 70 °N and may represent the the largest geographical area that has ever been sampled and observed for the purpose of studying biogeochemical processes. Because of unified site design and uniform laboratory procedures, data from all sites were directly comparable and permitted a determination of the relative influence of climateversus substrate quality viewed from the perspective of broad regional scales. Simple correlation applied to the entire data set indicated that annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) should be the leading climatic constraint on mass-loss rates (Radj 2 = 0.496). The combination of AET, average July temp. and average annual temp. could explain about 70% of the sites' variability on litter mass-loss. In an analysis of 23 Scots pine sites north of the Alps and Carpatians AET alone could account for about 65% of the variation and the addition of a substrate-quality variable was sufficiently significant to be used in a model. The influence of litter quality was introduced into a model, using data from 11 sites at which litter of different quality had been incubated. These sites are found in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland. At any one site most ( ≫ 90%) of the variation in mass-loss rates could be explained by one of the litter-quality variables giving concentration of nitrogen, phosphorus or water solubles. However, even when these models included nitrogen or phosphorus even small changes in potential evapotranspiration resulted in large changes in early-phase decay rates. Further regional subdivision of the data set, resulted in a range of strength in the relationship between loss rate and climatic variables, from very weak in Central Europe to strong for the Scandinavian and Atlantic coast sites (Radj 2 = 0.912; AETversus litter mass loss). Much of the variation in observed loss rates could be related to continentalversus marine/Atlantic influences. Inland locations had mass-loss rates lower than should be expected on the basis of for example AET alone. Attempts to include seasonality variables were not successful. It is clear that either unknown errors and biases, or, unknown variables are causing these regional differences in response to climatic variables. Nevertheless these results show the powerful influence of climate as a control of the broad-scale geography of mass-loss rates and substrate quality at the stand level. Some of these relationships between mass-loss rate and climatic variables are among the highest ever reported, probably because of the care taken to select uniform sites and experimental methods. This suggest that superior, base line maps of predicted mass-loss rates could be produced using climatic data. These models should be useful to predict the changing equilibrium litter dynamics resulting from climatic change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00000785
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Effects of forest fire and drought on acidity of a base-poor boreal forest stream: similarities between climatic warming and acidic precipitation (1992)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (1992), S. 191-204 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00004041
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Precariousness of North American Boreal Forests (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 261-272 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystem theory ; nonlinear thermodynamics ; resource management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006201904039
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 37-48 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; integration ; impacts
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006305832380
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  • 17
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    The Costa Rican Experience with Market Instruments to Mitigate Climate Change and Conserve Biodiversity (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 75-92 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; mitigation ; market instruments ; Costa Rica
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006366118268
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  • 18
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    The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 65-74 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate variability ; climate change ; adaptation ; institutional reform
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006361917359
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
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    Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 187-191 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; adaptation ; water resources ; China
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006351126446
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  • 20
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    Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over Port Said Governorate, Egypt (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 56 (1999), S. 113-128 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; coastal erosion ; GIS ; Mediterranean coast ; Nile delta ; remote sensing
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005946819600
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  • 21
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    Adaptation to What and Why? (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 9-35 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; risk ; adaptation ; thresholds ; limits
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006393415542
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  • 22
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    Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 49-64 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; El Niño Southern Oscillation ; public health ; adaptation ; primary prevention
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006357800521
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  • 23
    Electronic Resource
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    Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026409105660
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    Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008204419284
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    Climate Change and the Representative Agent (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008361812597
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    Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise? (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 301-306 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018908027243
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    Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change (1998)
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 603-621 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; environmental policy ; environmental uncertainty ; integrated assessment ; sustainable development
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Academic and policy debates over climate change risks and policies have stimulated economic research in a variety of fields. In this article I briefly discuss eight overlapping areas of current research in which further effort is particularly warranted. These areas include decision criteria for policy; risk assessment and adaptation; uncertainty and learning; abatement cost and the innovation and diffusion of technology; and the credibility of policies and international agreements. Further analysis in these areas not only will advance academic understanding but also will provide insights of considerable importance to policymakers.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008268525257
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    Weight Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 13 (1999), S. 249-268 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; developing countries ; value of a statistical life ; weight factors
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Equity considerations may justify the use of weight factors when estimating the costs of climate change. This paper reviews different weight factors that have been used in the climate economics literature. Based on a simple model, it is shown that although the different weight factors imply substantially different cost-damage estimates, they actually yield the same optimal emission reductions. This paradox is explained by the fact that some of the approaches require that also the abatement costs are weighted – and this offsets the effect of the diverging cost-damage estimates. The model is then used to analyse the importance weighting may have on the overall cost-benefit analysis. At present, when most of the global emissions of (fossil) CO2 originate from the industrialised countries, the global optimal emissions are considerably lower if costs are weighted. However, the more the emissions in developing countries grow, the less important becomes the introduction of weight factors in cost-benefit analysis of climate change for the global emission reductions, in the model developed here. On a regional level, the introduction of weight factors continues to play an important role, implying substantially lower emissions in the rich region and slightly higher (!) in the poor.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008229225527
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    Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008326515058
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    Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 1-19 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; technology policy ; uncertainty ; agent-based modeling ; exploratory modeling ; social interactions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These “carrots” are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a “stick” designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019159210781
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    Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019167412598
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    Intergenerational equity and discounting (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019123630345
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    Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018912114948
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    Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 331-338 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018940901744
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    Uncertain Climate Change in an Intergenerational Planning Model (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 103-124 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; uncertainty ; irreversibility ; intergenerational ; stochastic dynamic programming ; resource extraction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A three-generation planning model incorporating uncertain climate change is developed. Each generation features a production activity based on capital and an exhaustible resource. An irreversible climate change may occur in period two or three, reducing the productivity for this and the remaining generation. The model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. If the climate impact and climate change probability is constant, the optimal period one (and two) resource extraction is larger than for the reference case of climate stability. If, however, climate impact and climate change probability increases with increased aggregate resource use, this result is reversed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026442931362
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    Uncertain climate change in an intergenerational planning model (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 103-124 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; uncertainty ; irreversibility ; intergenerational ; stochastic dynamic programming ; resource extraction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A three-generation planning model incorporating uncertain climate change is developed. Each generation features a production activity based on capital and an exhaustible resource. An irreversible climate change may occur in period two or three, reducing the productivity for this and the remaining generation. The model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. If the climate impact and climate change probability is constant, the optimal period one (and two) resource extraction is larger than for the reference case of climate stability. If, however, climate impact and climate change probability increases with increased aggregate resource use, this result is reversed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02441372
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    Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 267-280 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018927120883
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    Greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland based on international guidelines (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00625615
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    Climate science and climate policy: Improving the science/policy interface (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00625616
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    Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Land Use Change and Forestry in Finland Based on International Guidelines (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027539.66049.3f
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    Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027540.98192.40
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    Factor biases and promoting sustainable development: Adaptation to drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00455057
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    Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027382.26287.8c
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  • 44
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Central and Northern Greece: A Simulation Study with Ceres-Maize (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018044.48957.28
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  • 45
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018139.42373.f1
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  • 46
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agrigulture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018269.58736.82
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  • 47
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impacts of global climate change on Mediterranean agrigulture: Current methodologies and future directions (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517804
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  • 48
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018270.16497.39
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  • 49
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of climate change on possible scenarios for Egyptian agriculture in the future (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517805
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  • 50
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: A simulation study with CERES-Maize (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517806
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  • 51
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modelling crop-climate interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and adaptation of different agricultural systems to climate change (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517807
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  • 52
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027386.34214.60
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  • 53
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global and Regional Impacts of Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027389.02277.7d
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  • 54
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global and regional impacts of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilization scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00464887
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  • 55
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00464886
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  • 56
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    Electronic Resource
    Adapting to climate change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437055
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  • 57
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Adapting to Climate Change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004663.31074.64
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  • 58
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    Electronic Resource
    Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies in Mitigating the Greenhouse Impact of Waste Management in Three Communities of Different Size (1998)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004664.56143.cd
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  • 59
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact of waste management in three communities of different size (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437050
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  • 60
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    Electronic Resource
    Factors Affecting Future Emissions of Methane from Non Land Use Sources (1998)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009602301059
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  • 61
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    Electronic Resource
    Future Trends of Land-Use Emissions of Major Greenhouse Gases (1998)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009666823407
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    Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity (1996)
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00357360
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    Are Optimal CO2 Emissions Really Optimal? (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008235326513
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    Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02441399
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    Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 14 (1999), S. 33-49 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; emission reduction ; efficiency ; cost-effectiveness ; equity ; JEL classification: Q25, Q40
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract FUND is an integrated assessment model of the interactions between climate and economy. Nine world regions emit greenhouse gases, and suffer damages from climate change. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are compared, including optimal and cost-effective strategies, strategies with early and late abatement, and strategies with and without international co-operation. The analyses confirm that co-operation matters, resulting in substantially lower costs or higher welfare. The real commitments of policy targets based on an absolute level (e.g., 1990 emissions) are hard to estimate because of the uncertainties in the baseline. Postponing action conflicts with minimising costs and maximising welfare, but so does sharp emission reduction at the short-term as proposed in the Kyoto Protocol.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008314205375
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    Overview of Recent Growth Trends in European Forests (1999)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 116 (1999), S. 33-46 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: growth trends ; site productivity ; European forests ; climate change ; management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Natural environmental changes and human activities have altered forest growth for centuries. Recent long-term growth investigations indicate an increasing growth trend in European forests. The investigations are based on forest inventory, permanent plot and tree analysis data. The observed trends are species specific, locally varying and modified by remarkably large periodic growth variations. On a European scale, species and site specific quantitative information about the extent and spatial as well as temporal variation in growth acceleration is lacking. Future growth development may differ from past observations. A better understanding of changes in site conditions, their causes and consequences is needed to guide sustainable management of European forests.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005205515952
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    Climate Change as the Primary Cause for pH Shifts in a High Alpine Lake (1998)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 104 (1998), S. 167-180 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acid-base equilibrium ; climate change ; diatoms ; palaeolimnology ; pH reconstruction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Chemical and biological sedimentary records of a high alpine lake were used to reconstruct palaeoecological conditions and compared with two centuries of instrumental temperature measurements. Air temperature determined the lake water pH throughout the past 200 yr almost regardless of the level of atmospheric deposition. Our data suggest a strong climate forcing of the acid-base balance in sensitive high-altitude lakes. Their physico-chemical conditions and biota strongly depend on the duration of ice and snow cover which is significantly different between warm and cold periods. Beside changes in weathering rates, in-lake alkalinity generation and water-retention time, delayed freezing in autumn and earlier ice-out dates with a shorter duration of CO2 over-saturation could be crucial for the tight temperature-pH coupling.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1004941013924
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    Simulation of forest and wood product carbon budget under a changing climate in Finland (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 309-320 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: carbon budget ; forest ecosystem ; wood products ; forest management ; carbon sequestration ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Flows of carbon (C) in the forest ecosystem were simulated with a gap-phase dynamics type model, while flows of C in wood products were simulated using a model that processes raw material into final products. In southern Finland, the ratio between gross production and total storage for the 500 year period was 3052–3572 Mg C ha−1: 192–223 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate and 4257–5096 Mg C ha−1: 260–318 Mg C ha−1 under the predicted changing climate. In northern Finland, the respective ratios were 1721–2021 Mg C ha−1: 103–134 Mg C ha−1 and 3409–4475 Mg C ha−1: 212–244 Mg C ha−1. The average total C storage in southern Finland over the 500 year period was 174–181 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate, and 206–217 Mg C ha−1 under the changing climate. In northern Finland, average total storage was 101 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate, and 191–198 Mg C ha−1 under the changing climate. The average C storages in unmanaged forest ecosystems under the current climate and under changing climate were 200 and 191 Mg C ha−1 respectively in southern Finland, and 142 and 193 Mg C ha−1 in northern Finland. Approximately 27–43% of total C was stored in wood products over a 500 year period. Wood products contributed 15–22% of the total emissions to the atmosphere. Over short periods, C sequestration potentials are much greater than over longer periods.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182843
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    Response of snowmelt hydrology to climate change (1996)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00619293
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    Assessment of the use of principal components analysis to relate air and precipitation chemistry to climate (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477204
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    Possibilities for Increased Carbon Sequestration through the Implementation of Rational Forest Management in Russia (1997)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 94 (1997), S. 137-162 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: carbon budget ; forest management ; climate change ; mitigation options
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Huge areas of the Russian forests suffer from insufficient forest management. A scenario has been developed for an improved management program that would be implemented over the next 40 years. Possible options have been aggregated into three interlinked groups: increase in forest productivity through improvement of the forest conditions and the structure of the Forest Fund, decrease of carbon release by mitigation of disturbance regimes, and improvement of landscape management. One prerequisite in developing this scenario was that the cost of sequestering one ton of carbon should not exceed US$3 (1992 dollar value). In this article a simple model is described to illustrate the following possibilities for increased carbon fixation by improved forest management: large-scale reforestation and afforestation, replacement of stands with low productivity and replacement of so called soft deciduous species and “climax” stands, and implementation of rational silviculture (thinning). The results indicate a potential for an increase in carbon fixation in Russian forest ecosystems of 24.4 Pg over 100 years, after the first year that the actions discussed are implemented. The net sink of carbon was determined to be 16.5 Pg in the “low” estimate and 42.5 Pg in the “high” estimate. There are, however, many uncertainties in the data and there are difficulties in adequately modeling the possibilities for implementation under current conditions in Russia. In spite of these uncertainties, we conclude that there is great potential for economically justified increased carbon fixation through improved forest management in Russia.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026494514131
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    Among-Provenance Variability of Gas Exchange and Growth in Response to Long-Term Elevated CO2 Exposure (1999)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 116 (1999), S. 403-412 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Genetic variability ; elevated CO2 ; climate change ; pine ; conifer ; photosynthesis ; growth
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Genetic variability can have profound effects on the interpretation of results from elevated CO2 studies, and future forest management decisions. Information on which varieties are best suited to future atmospheric conditions is needed to develop future forest management practices. A large-scale screening study of the effects of elevated CO2 on 15 half-sibling sources of genetically superior ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl ex P. Laws.) is presented. These sources represent multiple elevations and latitudes throughout California. Among-provenance variability in the effects of elevated CO2 on gas exchange and growth, and their correlation with geographic origin were investigated in ponderosa pine seedlings subjected to ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations (525 μmol mol-1 CO2, and 700 μmol mol-1 CO2) for more than two years in open-top chambers. Substantial among-provenance variability in growth response to elevated CO2 was evident, with 8 sources demonstrating no significant growth response to elevated CO2 while 7 sources responded positively. For all sources, elevated CO2 increased photosynthesis (ranging from 19% increase at 525 μmol mol-1 CO2 to 49% increase at 700 μmol mol-1 CO2). A modest correlation existed between geographic origin and above ground growth response to elevated CO2.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005203024884
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    Effects of Tropospheric O3 on Trembling Aspen and Interaction with Co2: Results from an O3-Gradient and a Face Experiment (1999)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 116 (1999), S. 311-322 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: ozone ; carbon dioxide ; FACE ; aspen ; greenhouse gases ; climate change ; gradients
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Over the years, a series of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones differing in O3 sensitivity have been identified from OTC studies. Three clones (216 and 271[(O3 tolerant] and 259 [O3 sensitive]) have been characterized for O3 sensitivity by growth and biomass responses, foliar symptoms, gas exchange, chlorophyll content, epicuticular wax characteristics, and antioxidant production. In this study we compared the responses of these same clones exposed to O3 under field conditions along a natural O3 gradient and in a Free-Air CO2 and O3 Enrichment (FACE) facility. In addition, we examined how elevated CO2 affected O3 symptom development. Visible O3 symptoms were consistently seen (5 out of 6 years) at two of the three sites along the O3 gradient and where daily one-hour maximum concentrations were in the range of 96 to 125 ppb. Clonal differences in O3 sensitivity were consistent with our OTC rankings. Elevated CO2 (200 ppm over ambient and applied during daylight hours during the growing season) reduced visible foliar symptoms for all three clones from 31 to 96% as determined by symptom development in elevated O3 versus elevated O3 + CO2 treatments. Degradation of the epicuticular wax surface of all three clones was found at the two elevated O3 gradient sites. This degradation was quantified by a coefficient of occlusion which was a measure of stomatal occlusion by epicuticular waxes. Statistically significant increases in stomatal occlusion compared to controls were found for all three clones and for all treatments including elevated CO2, elevated O3, and elevated CO2 + O3. Our results provide additional evidence that current ambient O3 levels in the Great Lakes region are causing adverse effects on trembling aspen. Whether or not elevated CO2 in the future will alleviate some of these adverse effects, as occurred with visible symptoms but not with epicuticular wax degradation, is unknown.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005276824459
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 37-78 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478336
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478335
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    Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478339
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    Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478340
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    Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 79-131 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478337
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    Potential effects of climatic change on some western Canadian forests, based on phenological enhancements to a patch model of forest succession (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 401-414 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Alberta ; British Columbia ; climate change ; chilling requirement ; coniferous forests ; frost tolerance ; gap model ; temperature response ; succession ; ZELIG
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We enhanced the forest patch model, Zelig, to explore the implications of 2×CO2 climate change scenarios on several forest regions in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. In addition to the processes and phenomena commonly represented in individual-based models of forest stand dynamics, we added some species-specific phenology and site-specific frost events. The consideration of bud-break heat sum requirements, growing season limits, and chilling requirements for the induction of dormancy and cold hardiness slightly improved the ability of Zelig to predict the present composition of B.C. forests. Simulations of the predicted effects of future climatic regimes (based on the averaged predictions of four general circulation models) include some major shifts in equilibrial forest composition and productivity. Lowland temperate coastal forests are predicted to be severely stressed because indigenous species will no longer have their winter chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests are expected to increase in productivity, while interior subalpine forests are expected to remain stable in productivity but will gradually be replaced by species currently characteristic of lower elevations. Dry, interior low-elevation forests in southern B.C. are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while wet interior forests are expected to support dramatic increases in yield, primarily by western hemlock. Northern interior sub-boreal forests are likewise expected to increase in productivity through enhanced growth of lodgepole pine. Conversely, the precipitous collapse of spruce stands in the true boreal forests of northeastern B.C. is expected to be associated with reduced productivity as they are replaced by pine species. Boreal-Cordilleran and Moist Boreal Mixedwood forests in Alberta are less likely to undergo compositional change, while becoming somewhat more productive. We believe these model enhancements to be a significant improvement over existing formulations, but the resulting predictions must still be viewed with caution. Model limitations include: (1) the current inability of climate models to predict future variation in monthly temperature and precipitation; (2) sparse information on the phenological behaviour of several important tree species; and (3) a poor understanding of the degree to which growth is constrained by different suboptimal climatic events.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182850
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    Climate Change, Extreme Events and the Canadian Insurance Industry (1997)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 16 (1997), S. 135-163 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: climate change ; extreme events ; insurance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract At the same time that a scientific consensus has arisen that the world will most likely experience a changing climate in the near future, with more frequent extreme events of some weather hazards, the insurance industry, worldwide, has been hit with rapidly escalating costs from weather-related disasters. This conjunction of scientific belief and economic impact has raised the questions as to (1) whether more frequent extreme events have contributed to the rising insurance costs and (2) how will future climate change affect the industry? Based upon historical data, it is difficult to support the hypothesis that the recent run of disasters both world-wide and in Canada are caused by climate change; more likely other factors such as increased wealth, urbanization, and population migration to vulnerable areas are of significance. It seems likely, though, that in the future some extreme events such as convective storms (causing heavy downpours, hail and tornadoes), drought and heat waves will result in increased costs to the industry, should the climate change as anticipated.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007934511961
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    Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 461-471 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007004813446
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    Integrated assessment of potential health impact of global environmental change: Prospects and limitations (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 2 (1997), S. 129-137 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: integrated health risk assessment ; mathematical modelling ; global environmental change ; climate change ; scenarios ; human health ; epidemiology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019061311283
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    Inventory of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Israel (2000)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 123 (2000), S. 259-271 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gases in Israel ; inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory, which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and waste. In this paper, only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent, the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide, methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass, this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis, Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005271424293
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    An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions, acid deposition and climate change (1995)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477200
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    The aspen parkland in western Canada: A dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest? (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 391-400 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; evapotranspiration ; Populus tremuloides ; prairie-forest boundary
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Predicted future changes in regional climate under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations were applied to the 1951–80 normals of 254 climate stations to examine future impacts on the boreal forest of western Canada. Previous analyses have indicated that in this region, the southern boreal forest is presently restricted to areas where annual precipitation (P) exceeds potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present analysis suggests that a predicted 11% increase in P would be insufficient to offset the increases in PET resulting from a predicted warming of 4–5°C. As a result, half of the western Canadian boreal forest could be exposed to a drier climate similar to the present aspen parkland zone (P 〈 PET), where conifers are generally absent and aspen is restricted to patches of stunted trees interspersed with grassland. Future changes could result in permanent losses of forest cover following disturbance and an increase in the proportion of exposed edge habitat in remaining stands, where environmental conditions might induce additional stresses on tree growth. Thus if the predicted warming and drying occurs, productivity of aspen and other commercial species in the southern boreal forest would be greatly reduced.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182849
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    Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest (1995)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 437-444 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: boreal forest ; wildfire ; climate change ; GCM
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown climatically driven increases in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the “Little Ice Age” (∼1850). In fact, a 300-year fire history (AD 1688–1988) from the Lac Duparquet area (48°28′N, 79°17′W) shows a significant decrease both in the number and extent of fires starting 100 years ago during a period of warming. To explore this relationship between climatic change and fire frequency we used daily data from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service's General Circulation Model to calculate components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 scenarios. The average FWI over much of eastern Canada, including the Lac Duparquet region, decreased under the 2xCO2 simulation, whereas FWI increased dramatically over western Canada. According to these results, fire frequency would decrease over the southeastern boreal forest which is in agreement with the empirical data from the fire history. Our results stress the importance of large regional variability and call into question previous generalisations suggesting universal increases in the rate of disturbance with climate warming.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182853
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    Boreal forest futures: Modelling the controls on tree species range limits and transient responses to climate change (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 415-428 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: bioclimatology ; chilling requirements ; climate change ; forest dynamics ; forest model ; range limit ; transient effects
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Range limits and broad-scale geographic variations in the productivity of boreal and northern deciduous tree species in Europe are simulated with a bioclimatic model (STASH). STASH is based on a small number of distinct mechanisms by which climate is thought to affect the survival, regeneration and growth of trees. Survival is limited by summer warmth requirements and winter cold tolerance; regeneration, additionally by winter chilling requirements; and growth rate by net assimilation, which in turn is related to photosynthetically active radiation, growing-season length, temperature (relative to species-specific optima) and soil moisture supply (relative to evaporative demand). These mechanisms are quantified either as thresholds (for survival and regeneration) or multipliers (for growth), based on bioclimatic variables computed from monthly climate normals interpolated three-dimensionally to a 10-minute grid. Growing-season and growing degree day calculations take into account the effects of chilling. The drought calculations also take into account the effects of soil-moisture storage by means of a physically based evapotranspiration calculation coupled to a one-layer soil hydrology model. STASH is used to examine changes in potential range limits under a 2xCO2 climate-change scenario. Associated transient responses at selected sites in the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones of Sweden are also simulated, using the forest gap model FORSKA2. The species-specific survival and regeneration constraints and growth responses of STASH modify the growth, establishment and mortality of trees in FORSKA2. The results obtained in this way differ sharply from the results of conventional forest gap models, where growth rates are assumed to decline to zero at minimum and maximum growing degree day limits. For example, towards the southern limit ofPicea abies (Norway spruce), STASH correctly shows no decline in productivity, but rather an abrupt cut-off corresponding to a chilling requirement during regeneration that is not met further south or west. In transient warming scenarios, this mechanism has the effect that natural regeneration can be blocked due to the warm winters even as yield is increasing due to the longer and warmer summers. STASH predicts drastic changes in species distributions in response to the large climate changes (especially winter warming) expected for northern Europe. Some of the common boreal species (e.g.,Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Alnus incana) are unlikely to survive in much of their present range, withdrawing to the far north. Other species already widespread may be able to occupy some of the few sites that are today unavailable to them (e.g.,Betula spp.;Corylus avellana). Other temperate deciduous species such asFagus sylvatica could have dramatic range expansions, potentially occupying large tracts of the present boreal zone. FORSKA2 transient simulations illustrate some of the possible routes towards different types of forest in a changed climate. Some sites in the north show little change in species composition, but sites towards the southern boundary of the boreal zone could develop a new suite of dominants. The degree of sensitivity of a particular site depends both on the climate change prediction and on the transient dynamics of the forest community. Many types of transient behaviour are shown to be possible. Coupled with uncertainties about the future role of dispersal and changes in disturbance rate, the complexity and variety of these transient responses imply a highly uncertain future for the north European boreal forests.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182851
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    Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada's boreal forest: Some plausible scenarios (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    The role of climate variability and global warming in the dieback of Northern Hardwoods (1996)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 91 (1996), S. 163-186 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: birch ; cavitation ; climate change ; climatic variability ; decline ; dieback ; drought ; freezing ; global warming ; Northern Hardwoods ; temperate forests ; sugar maple
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The severity of dieback in Northern Hardwood Forests of Canada and the United States this century (1910–1990) was reconstructed from pathology records and compared to indices of extreme weather stresses in the region, and to changes in global temperatures and climatic variability over the same period. Thaw-freeze and root-freeze events in winter and early spring were key factors intriggering (and synchronizing) severe episodes of dieback. Once trees were injured by freezing, forest dieback correlated significantly with heat and drought stress. Freezing (but not drought) stresses in Northern Hardwoods correlated significantly (r = 0.70, p 〈 0.001) with increasing global mean annual temperatures and low values of the Pacific tropical Southern Oscillation Index. Major diebacks did not occur early in the century at a time of notable freezing stress. Prior to 1940, the Northern Hardwoods consisted of relatively young populations of trees regrowing following extensive cutting and forest burning in the late 19th century (1860–1890). It appears that forest maturation is the key factorpreconditioning trees to climatic injury, and dieback. A simple projection of climate and forest maturation ages suggested the recurrence of major dieback episodes on white/yellow birch, sugar maple and red spruce in the latter half of the 21st century (2045–2085).
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00666255
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    Possibilities for increased carbon sequestration through the implementation of rational forest management in Russia (1997)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 94 (1997), S. 137-162 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: carbon budget ; forest management ; climate change ; mitigation options
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Huge areas of the Russian forests suffer from insufficient forest management. A scenario has been developed for an improved management program that would be implemented over the next 40 years. Possible options have been aggregated into three interlinked groups: increase in forest productivity through improvement of the forest conditions and the structure of the Forest Fund, decrease of carbon release by mitigation of disturbance regimes, and improvement of landscape management. One prerequisite in developing this scenario was that the cost of sequestering one ton of carbon should not exceed US$3 (1992 dollar value). In this article a simple model is described to illustrate the following possibilities for increased carbon fixation by improved forest management: large-scale reforestation and afforestation, replacement of stands with low productivity and replacement of so called soft deciduous species and “climax” stands, and implementation of rational silviculture (thinning). The results indicate a potential for an increase in carbon fixation in Russian forest ecosystems of 24.4 Pg over 100 years, after the first year that the actions discussed are implemented. The net sink of carbon was determined to be 16.5 Pg in the “low” estimate and 42.5 Pg in the “high” estimate. There are, however, many uncertainties in the data and there are difficulties in adequately modeling the possibilities for implementation under current conditions in Russia. In spite of these uncertainties, we conclude that there is great potential for economically justified increased carbon fixation through improved forest management in Russia.
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    Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach (1999)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 217-234 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; integrated assessment ; inverse modeling ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019076603956
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    The Vandaclim Simulation Model: A Training Tool for Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (1999)
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    Environment, development and sustainability 1 (1999), S. 157-170 
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    ISSN: 1573-2975
    Keywords: capacity building ; climate change ; integrated assessment model ; vulnerability and adaptation assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a training course on climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The course, developed in partnership with the CC:TRAIN Programme of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), aims to enhance the capacity of developing countries to make their national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper focuses on a simulation model called VANDACLIM, which was developed as a pedagogical tool to facilitate the training. Four sectors are modelled within VANDACLIM (agriculture, public health, water resources, and coastal zone) and are used as a basis for helping to conduct an integrated, multi-sectoral assessment for the imaginary, sub-tropical country of Vanda. The ‘learning-by-doing’ approach, encapsulated in the application of VANDACLIM to complete a mini-assessment for Vanda, proved to be very successful when trialled at a training workshop in Zimbabwe. Both the training course and VANDACLIM have been adapted subsequently for application in small island states and plans are underway for extension to other environments and regions of the world.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1010068403223
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    On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change (1998)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019050503531
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    Ethical issues concerning potential global climate change on food production (1992)
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
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    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Economic effects of CO2 fertilization of crops: transforming changes in yield into changes in supply (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 5 (2000), S. 157-168 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; crops ; carbon dioxide ; economic welfare
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019013712133
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    The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods (1999)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019035527638
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    THE TIGER IN THE DINING ROOM: DESIGNING AND EVALUATING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 46 (1997), S. 45-58 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: atmospheric change ; climate change ; integrated assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Integrated assessments (IAs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs) arerecent responses to the inter-disciplinary challenges provided by complexglobal environmental issues such as atmospheric change. This paper discussesan array of integrated assessments, providing an overview of the role of IAsas bridges or foundations for ’epistemic communities‘. Formal as well associal, political, and ethical issues are presented. As well as a definition of anIA and an IAM, different forms and approaches of current or proposed IAsare reviewed. Particular stress is laid on the need to maintain the integrity ofthe diverse components of an IA. Finally, reference is made to the need tounderstand the underlying ethical and normative concerns that have promotedthe current interest in IA.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005735902044
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  • 98
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    Electronic Resource
    PREDICTING CHANGE IN NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 46 (1997), S. 179-190 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: chaos ; climate change ; complexity ; ecosystems ; prediction ; semi-stability ; sudden change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Complex systems are characterizedby surprising switches to new behaviours. Evaluating and predicting these changes demands anunderstanding of the behaviour of the whole system. The combined ecosystem-climate system shows chaoticor pseudorandom behaviour, stochastic or trulyrandom behaviour, as well as simple bifurcation andsemi-stability. Semistability involves the suddenchange from a destabilized ’attractor‘ to a newstable attractor which may occur after an apparentlyunpredictable time delay. We present some recentresults for analyzing time series data and for usingsimulations of non-linear models to predict these changes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005787918882
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    interactions amongst policies designed to resolve individual air issues (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 46 (1997), S. 5-21 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: acidic deposition ; air issues ; air toxics ; climate change ; global warming ; ground-level ozone ; hazardous air pollutants ; smog ; stratospheric ozone depletion ; suspended particulate matter ; UV-B radiation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Six air issues are currently on science and policy agendas in Canadaand elsewhere. These are climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion(increased UV-B radiation), acidic deposition, SMOG (increasedground-level ozone), suspended particulate matter, and hazardous airpollutants. Atmospheric scientists and decision makers have largelyaddressed these issues individually resulting in single-issue policies. However, it is now recognized that these issues are inter-related, andthey may interact to cause negative as well as some beneficial effects,not only on the state of the atmosphere but also on societal andecological systems. This paper illustrates through several examples theatmospheric dysfunction caused by the linkages among the six airissues. It also points to potentially conflicting policies arising from thesingle-issue approach, and it emphasizes the need for better integrationof air issues. The linkages are summarized qualitatively in Table I.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005748204769
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  • 100
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    Electronic Resource
    Holling's Figure-Eight Model: A Technical Reevaluation in Relation to Climate Change and Biodiversity (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 157-168 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; carbon storage ; climate change ; conservation ; creative destruction ; ecological succession ; ecosystem stability ; Holling figure-eight ; nitrogen ; resilience
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Holling proposed a four-phase conceptual model of ecosystem dynamics that includes exploitation, conservation, and destructive and renewal components to explain the failure of many natural resource management schemes. The model is drawn as a sideways figure-eight i.e. ∞. There are two dimensions in this model, connectivity (abscissa) and the amount of capital stored in the system (ordinate). This conceptual model has been suggested as a guide to thinking about the impact of climate change on biodiversity, but the two dimensions are insufficient and the alignment of the figure-eight model is problematic when compared with actual data. Kay has adjusted the dimensions of the figure-eight model and renamed the abscissa as exergy stored and the ordinate as exergy consumed. We realign the original figure-eight model, labeling the abscissa as carbon stored and the ordinate as nutrients, such that the relative values of both axes are in qualitative agreement with data from four different studies. This new alignment is then shown to fit relatively well with Holling's original labels. This revision of the figure-eight model brings Holling's model into agreement with observations and provides insight into the linkages between biodiversity and climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005813702080
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