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  • Books  (17)
  • Articles  (142)
  • climate change  (159)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (148)
  • Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying  (12)
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  • Books  (17)
  • Articles  (142)
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  • 1
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: alternative energy ; sustainable forest management ; carbon finance ; carbon ; forests ; climate change ; biodiversity conservation ; emissions ; oceans ; silver ; colors ; carbon sinks ; carbon offsets ; climate ; ecosystem ; emissions from deforestation ; coral reefs ; carbon stores ; forest ; sustainable forest
    Description / Table of Contents: Global warming and changes in climate will have severe and lasting impacts on national efforts to alleviate poverty and promote sustainable development. Some of the world s poorest countries and communities are the most vulnerable and are already suffering the consequences. Yet often these countries are rich in natural capital, ecosystems, and biodiversity that can contribute to solutions as they can to climate change. Biodiversity is the foundation and mainstay of agriculture, forests, and fisheries. Biological resources provide the raw materials for livelihoods, agriculture, medicines, trade, tourism, and industry. Forests, grasslands, freshwater, and marine and other natural ecosystems provide a range of services, often not recognized in national economic accounts but vital to human welfare: regulating water flows and water quality, flood control, pollination, decontamination, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and nutrient and hydrological cycling. Current efforts to address climate change focus mainly on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly through cleaner energy strategies, and on attempting to reduce vulnerability of the communities at risk by improving infrastructure to meet new energy and water needs. This book book sets out a compelling argument for including ecosystem-based approaches to mitigation and adaptation as a third essential pillar in national strategies to address climate change. Such ecosystem-based strategies can offer cost-effective, proven and sustainable solutions contributing to, and complementing, other national and regional adaptation strategies.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 114 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821381274
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Unknown
    Basel, Beijing, Wuhan : MDPI
    Keywords: climate ; time of wetness ; climate change ; aerosols ; particle induced corrosion ; chloride-rich atmospheres ; de-icing salts ; impact of atmospheric corrosion on the environment (runoff) ; prediction ; modelling ; degradation and conservation of cultural heritage ; weathering steels ; copper (alloys) ; surface coatings ; worldwide atmospheric corrosion research ; new analytical techniques
    Description / Table of Contents: Nishimura, T. Rust Formation Mechanism on Low Alloy Steels after Exposure Test in High Cl− and High SOx Environmen. Materials 2017, 10(2), 199; doi:10.3390/ma10020199. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/2/199 --- Chang, T.; Odnevall Wallinder, I.; de la Fuente, D.; Chico, B.; Morcillo, M.; Welter, J.; Leygraf, C. Analysis of Historic Copper Patinas. Influence of Inclusions on Patina Uniformity. Materials 2017, 10(3), 298; doi:10.3390/ma10030298. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/3/298 --- Na, O.; Cai, X.; Xi, Y. Corrosion Prediction with Parallel Finite Element Modeling for Coupled Hygro-Chemo Transport into Concrete under Chloride-Rich Environment. Materials 2017, 10(4), 350; doi:10.3390/ma10040350. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/350 --- Kreislova, K.; Knotkova, D. The Results of 45 Years of Atmospheric Corrosion Study in the Czech Republic. Materials 2017, 10(4), 394; doi:10.3390/ma10040394. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/394 --- Alcántara, J.; Fuente, D.; Chico, B.; Simancas, J.; Díaz, I.; Morcillo, M. Marine Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel: A Review. Materials 2017, 10(4), 406; doi:10.3390/ma10040406. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/406 --- Hosseinpour, S.; Johnson, M. Vibrational Spectroscopy in Studies of Atmospheric Corrosion. Materials 2017, 10(4), 413; doi:10.3390/ma10040413. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/413 --- Panchenko, Y.; Marshakov, A. Prediction of First-Year Corrosion Losses of Carbon Steel and Zinc in Continental Regions. Materials 2017, 10(4), 422; doi:10.3390/ma10040422. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/422 --- Chico, B.; de la Fuente, D.; Díaz, I.; Simancas, J.; Morcillo, M. Annual Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel Worldwide. An Integration of ISOCORRAG, ICP/UNECE and MICAT Databases. Materials 2017, 10(6), 601; doi:10.3390/ma10060601. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/6/601 --- Bouchar, M.; Dillmann, P.; Neff, D. New Insights in the Long-Term Atmospheric Corrosion Mechanisms of Low Alloy Steel Reinforcements of Cultural Heritage Buildings. Materials 2017, 10(6), 670; doi:10.3390/ma10060670. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/6/670 --- Tidblad, J.; Kreislová, K.; Faller, M.; de la Fuente, D.; Yates, T.; Verney-Carron, A.; Grøntoft, T.; Gordon, A.; Hans, U. ICP Materials Trends in Corrosion, Soiling and Air Pollution (1987–2014). Materials 2017, 10(8), 969; doi:10.3390/ma10080969. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/8/969 --- Cole, I. Recent Progress and Required Developments in Atmospheric Corrosion of Galvanised Steel and Zinc. Materials 2017, 10(11), 1288; doi:10.3390/ma10111288. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/11/1288
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 262 Seiten)
    Edition: Printed Edition of the Special Issue Published in Materials
    ISBN: 9783038426424
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Keywords: Switzerland ; environmental planning ; environmental policy ; environmental protocols ; climate change ; public action ; public policy standards ; allocation of public resources
    Description / Table of Contents: Depuis le début des années 2000, l’insuffisance des efforts politiques pour réduire drastiquement les émissions globales de gaz à effet de serre a conduit au renforcement d’un discours sur la nécessité de s’adapter au changement climatique. Particulièrement dans les régions vulnérables aux effets du changement climatique, une transformation des politiques de gestion de l’environnement apparaît comme nécessaire afin de réduire les risques et d’exploiter les nouvelles opportunités découlant du changement climatique et de ses im-pacts. Or, si les analystes constatent un développement des activités d’adaptation au changement climatique, peu de travaux interrogent l’efficacité réelle des mesures actuelles et leurs éventuelles limites. Cet ouvrage tente de combler cette lacune en déconstruisant la notion d’adaptation au changement climatique et en interrogeant sa signification réelle pour la conduite des politiques à incidence environnementale. Il exa-mine de manière théorique en quoi l’adaptation au changement climatique nécessiterait des réformes de l’action publique. Puis, il examine l’état des pratiques actuelles au travers d’études de cas dans le secteur agricole en Inde (Rajasthan et Maharashtra) et dans le secteur du tourisme hivernal en Suisse (Alpes vaudoises et vallée de Joux). Sur la base de cette incursion théorique et empirique dans l’univers de ces nouvelles politiques de gestion de l’environnement, l’auteur discute des limitations observées et suggère des voies d’amélioration pour le futur.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (384 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    ISBN: 9782889300617
    Language: French
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  • 4
    Keywords: climate change ; government policy ; citizen participation ; social aspects ; Alberta ; Canada
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction: Advancing Public Deliberation on Climate Change and Other Wicked Problems / Lorelei L. Hanson and David Kahane --- 1. Profiles of Four Citizen Deliberations / Lorelei L. Hanson --- 2. The Theory and Practice of Deliberative Democracy / David Kahane and Gwendolyn Blue --- 3. The Economic and Political Context of Climate Policy in Alberta / Geoff Salomons and John R. Parkins --- 4. Beyond the Usual Suspects: Representation in Deliberative Exercises / Shelley Boulianne --- 5. From Facts to Frames: Dominant and Alternative Meanings of Climate Change / Gwendolyn Blue --- 6. Collaborating on Deliberative Democracy / David Kahane and Lorelei L. Hanson --- 7. On the Ground: Practitioners Reflect on ABCD’s Citizen Deliberations / Mary Pat MacKinnon, Jacquie Dale, and Susanna Haas Lyons --- 8. Climate Change, Social Change, and Systems Change / David Kahane --- Conclusion: The Potential of Deliberation to Tap the Power of Citizens to Address Climate Change and Other Issues of Sustainability / Tom Prugh and Matt Leighninger
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIV, 248 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    ISBN: 9781771992169
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: dams ; forestry ; climate change ; downstream impacts ; integrated water resources management ; natural resources ; fish ; environmental policy ; wetlands ; economic growth ; drinking water ; environmental water allocation ; sustainable water ; sustainable development ; environmental risk ; water infrastructure ; environmental flows ; water policy ; benefit sharing ; environmental management ; environmental impact assessment
    Description / Table of Contents: This book advances the understanding and integration in operational terms of environmental flows (water allocation) into integrated water resources management (IWRM). Based on an in-depth analysis of 17 global water policy, plan, and project case studies, it addresses the highly contested complexities of environmentally responsible water resources development, broadens the global perspectives on "equitable sharing" and "sustainable use" of water resources, and expands the definitions of "benefits sharing" in high-risk water resources development. The book fills a major gap in knowledge on IWRM and forms an important contribution to the ongoing discourse on climate change adaptation in the water sector.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XVIII, 189 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821380123
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Unknown
    Durham NC : Duke University Press
    Keywords: climate change ; petro industry ; oil
    Description / Table of Contents: "In Energy without Conscience" David McDermott Hughes investigates why climate change has yet to be seen as a moral issue. He examines the forces that render the use of fossil fuels ordinary and therefore exempt from ethical evaluation. Hughes centers his analysis on Trinidad and Tobago, which is the world's oldest petro-state, having drilled the first continuously producing oil well in 1866. Marrying historical research with interviews with Trinidadian petroleum scientists, policymakers, technicians, and managers, he draws parallels between Trinidad's eighteenth- and nineteenth-century slave labor energy economy and its contemporary oil industry. Hughes shows how both forms of energy rely upon a complicity that absolves producers and consumers from acknowledging the immoral nature of each. He passionately argues that like slavery, producing oil is a moral choice and that oil is at its most dangerous when it is accepted as an ordinary part of everyday life.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 191 ppages)
    ISBN: 9780822373360
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Keywords: climate change ; agriculture
    Description / Table of Contents: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W Jones, Jerry L Hatfield, John M Antle, Alexander C Ruane, and Carolyn Z Mutter) --- AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (John M Antle, Roberto O Valdivia, Kenneth J Boote, Sander Janssen, James W Jones, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, and Peter J Thorburn) --- AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment (Alexander C Ruane, Jonathan M Winter, Sonali P McDermid, and Nicholas I Hudson) --- Cropping Systems Modeling in AgMIP: A New Protocol-Driven Approach for Regional Integrated Assessments (Peter J Thorburn, Kenneth J Boote, John N G Hargreaves, Perry L Poulton, and James W Jones) --- Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (Roberto O Valdivia, John M Antle, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Joost Vervoort, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ibrahima Hathie, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Richard Mulwa, Charles Nhemachena, Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Herath Rasnayaka, and Harbir Singh) --- Data Interoperability Tools for Regional Integrated Assessments (Cheryl H Porter, Chris Villalobos, Dean Holzworth, Roger Nelson, Jefffrey W White, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, Meng Zhang, Sander Janssen, Rob Knapen, James W Jones, Kenneth J Boote, John Hargreaves, and John M Antle) --- The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) (Joshua Elliott and Christoph Müller) --- The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols (Sonali P McDermid, Alexander C Ruane, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Nicholas I Hudson, Monica D Morales, Prabodha Agalawatte, Shakeel Ahmad, L R Ahuja, Istiqlal Amien, Saseendran S Anapalli, Jakarat Anothai, Senthold Asseng, Jody Biggs, Federico Bert, Patrick Bertuzzi, Virender S Bhatia, Marco Bindi, Ian Broad, Davide Cammarano, Ramiro Carretero, Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha, Uran Chung, Stephanie Debats, Paola Deligios, Giacomo De Sanctis, Thanda Dhliwayo, Benjamin Dumont, Lyndon Estes, Frank Ewert, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Guillermo Garcia, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Vellingiri Geethalakshmi, Edward Gerardeaux, Richard Goldberg, Brian Grant, Edgardo Guevara, Jonathan Hickman, Holger Hoffmann, Huanping Huang, Jamshad Hussain, Flavio Barbosa Justino, Asha S Karunaratne, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Patrice K Kouakou, Soora Naresh Kumar, Arunachalam Lakshmanan, Mark Lieffering, Xiaomao Lin, Qunying Luo, Graciela Magrin, Marco Mancini, Fabio Ricardo Marin, Anna Dalla Marta, Yuji Masutomi, Theodoros Mavromatis, Greg McLean, Santiago Meira, Monoranjan Mohanty, Marco Moriondo, Wajid Nasim, Lamyaa Negm, Francesca Orlando, Simone Orlandini, Isik Ozturk, Helena Maria Soares Pinto, Guillermo Podesta, Zhiming Qi, Johanna Ramarohetra, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Helene Raynal, Gabriel Rodriguez, Reimund Rötter, Vaishali Sharda, Lu Shuo, Ward Smith, Val Snow, Afshin Soltani, K Srinivas, Benjamin Sultan, Dillip Kumar Swain, Fulu Tao, Kindie Tesfaye, Maria I Travasso, Giacomo Trombi, Alex Topaj, Eline Vanuytrecht, Federico E Viscarra, Syed Aftab Wajid, Enli Wang, Hong Wang, Jing Wang, Erandika Wijekoon, Lee Byun-Woo, Yang Xiaoguang, Ban Ho Young, Jin I Yun, Zhigan Zhao, and Lareef Zubair) --- Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment (Daniel Wallach, Linda O Mearns, Michael Rivington, John M Antle, and Alexander C Ruane) --- Uncertainties in Scaling-Up Crop Models for Large-Area Climate Change Impact Assessments (Frank Ewert, Lenny G J van Bussel, Gang Zhao, Holger Hoffmann, Thomas Gaiser, Xenia Specka, Claas Nendel, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Carmen Sosa, Elisabet Lewan, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Matthias Kuhnert, Fulu Tao, Reimund Rötter, Julie Constantin, Helene Raynal, Daniel Wallach, Edmar Teixeira, Balasz Grosz, Michaela Bach, Luca Doro, Pier Paolo Roggero, Zhigan Zhao, Enli Wang, Ralf Kiese, Edwin Haas, Henrik Eckersten, Giacomo Trombi, Marco Bindi, Christian Klein, Christian Biernath, Florian Heinlein, Eckart Priesack, Davide Cammarano, Senthold Asseng, Joshua Elliott, Michael Glotter, Bruno Basso, Guillermo A Baigorria, Consuelo C Romero, and Marco Moriondo) --- Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Change Effects (David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J Challinor, Sjakk J G Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L A Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E E Jongschaap, James W Jones, Armen R Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J O'Leary, Jorgen E Olesen, Tom M Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W White, Jimmy R Williams, and Joost Wolf) --- Crop Diseases and Climate Change in the AgMIP Framework (Ariena H C van Bruggen, James W Jones, Jose Mauricio C Fernandes, Karen Garrett, and Kenneth J Boote) --- Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa (Job Kihara, Dilys S MacCarthy, Andre Bationo, Saidou Koala, Jonathan Hickman, Jawoo Koo, Charles Vanya, Samuel Adiku, Yacob Beletse, Patricia Masikate, Karuturi P C Rao, Carolyn Z Mutter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and James W Jones) --- Climate Change Impacts on West African Agriculture: An Integrated Regional Assessment (CIWARA) (Samuel G K Adiku, Dilys S MacCarthy, Ibrahima Hathie, Madina Diancoumba, Bright S Freduah, Joseph Amikuzuno, P C Sibiry Traore, Seydou Traore, Eric Koomson, Alhassane Agali, Jon I Lizaso, Dougbedji Fatondji, Myriam Adams, Lodoun Tigana, Daouda Z Diarra, Ousmane N'diaye, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Systems in East Africa (Karuturi P C Rao, Gummadi Sridhar, Richard M Mulwa, Mary N Kilavi, Anthony Esilaba, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Projected Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Production of Maize in Southern Africa: An Integrated Assessment Case Study of the Bethlehem District, Central Free State, South Africa (Yacob G Beletse, Wiltrud Durand, Charles Nhemachena, Olivier Crespo, Weldemichael A Tesfuhuney, Matthew R Jones, Mogos Y Teweldemedhin, Sunshine M Gamedze, Pontsho M Bonolo, Syanda Jonas, SueWalker, Patrick Gwimbi, Thembeka N Mpuisang, Davide Cammarano, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Crop-Livestock Intensification in the Face of Climate Change: Exploring Opportunities to Reduce Risk and Increase Resilience in Southern Africa by Using an Integrated Multi-modeling Approach (Patricia Masikati, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Katrien Descheemaeker, Olivier Crespo, Sue Walker, Christopher J Lennard, Lieven Claessens, Arthur C Gama, Sebastiao Famba, Andre F van Rooyen, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia (Sonali P McDermid, Guntuku Dileepkumar, K M Dakshina Murthy, S Nedumaran, Piara Singh, Chukka Srinivasa, B Gangwar, N Subash, Ashfaq Ahmad, Lareef Zubair, and S P Nissanka) --- Impact of Climate Change on the Rice–Wheat Cropping System of Pakistan (Ashfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ghulam Rasul, Syed Aftab Wajid, Tasneem Khaliq, Fahd Rasul, Umer Saeed, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Jamshad Hussain, Irfan Ahmad Baig, Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari, Shakeel Ahmad, Wajid Naseem, Gerrit Hoogenboom, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Climate Change Assessment through Linking Crop Simulation with Economic Modeling — Results from the Indo-Gangetic Basin (Nataraja Subash, Babooji Gangwar, Harbir Singh, Guillermo Baigorria, Alok Kumar Sikka, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Farms and Farm Household Incomes in South India: A Case Study from Tamil Nadu (Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Raji Reddy Danda, Lakshmanan Arunachalam, Dakshina Murthy, Sunandini Prema, Sreenivas Gade, Sonali P McDermid, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka (Lareef Zubair, Sarath P Nissanka, W M W Weerakoon, Dumindu I Herath, Asha S Karunaratne, A S M Prabodha, M B Agalawatte, Rasnayaka M Herath, S Zeenas Yahiya, B V R Punyawardene, Janan Vishwanathan, Punya Delpitiya, A Erandika N Wijekoon, Janaka Gunaratna, Sewwandhi S K Chandrasekara, P Wickramagamage, K D N Weerasinghe, Champa M Navaratne, Ruchika S Perera, Asela I Gunesekara, G M Pradeep Kumara, Daniel Wallach, Roberto O Valdivia, and Sonali P McDermid) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience (Eduardo D Assad, Fábio R Marin, Roberto O Valdivia, and Cynthia Rosenzweig) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The China Experience (Fulu Tao and Erda Lin) --- AgMIP Training in Multiple Crop Models and Tools (Kenneth J Boote, Cheryl H Porter, John Hargreaves, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Peter Thorburn, and Carolyn Mutter) --- Major Findings and Future Activities (Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel)
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXVII, 525 pages (part 1); XXIII, 580 pages (part 2))
    ISBN: 9781783265633
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Unknown
    London : Bloomsbury Academic
    Keywords: climate change ; climate crisis
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction: Climate Crisis and the Cultural Imagination / pp. 1–22 --- Chapter 1. Collapse / pp. 23–48 --- Chapter 2. Pastoral / pp. 49–78 --- Chapter 3. Urban / pp. 79–104 --- Chapter 4. Polar / pp. 105–132 --- Conclusion / pp. 133–145
    Pages: Online-Ressource (VIII, 184 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781474271158
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Unknown
    New York, Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London : Springer
    Keywords: climate change ; mitigation ; fossil energy ; alternative energy ; renewable energy ; solar energy ; biofuel ; atmospheric carbon ; energy conservation ; advanced combustion ; emission ; fuel cells ; precipitation ; sustainability
    Description / Table of Contents: There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Climate Change and Societal Issues, Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Conservation, Alternative Energies, Advanced Combustion, Advanced Technologies, and Education and Outreach.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXVII, 2130 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781441979919
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Keywords: Australia ; environment ; climate change ; biogeography ; palaeoecology ; human ecology
    Description / Table of Contents: Like a star chart this volume orientates the reader to the key issues and debates in Pacific and Australasian biogeography, palaeoecology and human ecology. A feature of this collection is the diversity of approaches ranging from interpretation of the biogeographic significance of plant and animal distributional patterns, pollen analysis from peats and lake sediments to discern Quaternary climate change, explanation of the patterns of faunal extinction events, the interplay of fire on landscape evolution, and models of the environmental consequences of human settlement patterns. The diversity of approaches, geographic scope and academic rigor are a fitting tribute to the enormous contributions of Geoff Hope. As made apparent in this volume, Hope pioneered multidisciplinary understanding of the history and impacts of human cultures in the Australia- Pacific region, arguably the globe’s premier model systems for understanding the consequences of human colonization on ecological systems. The distinguished scholars who have contributed to this volume also demonstrate Hope’s enduring contribution as an inspirational research leader, collaborator and mentor. Terra Australis leave no doubt that history matters, not only for land management, but more importantly, in alerting settler and indigenous societies alike to their past ecological impacts and future environmental trajectories.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (512 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781921666810
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Unknown
    Rijeka : InTech
    Keywords: evapotranspiration ; water flux ; moisture evaporation ; climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: Chapter 1: Comparison of Evapotranspiration Methods Under Limited Data by Hsin-Fu Yeh --- Chapter 2: Assessment and Prediction of Evapotranspiration Based on Scintillometry and Meteorological Datasets by Antonin Poisson, Angel Fernandez, Dario G. Gomez, Régis Barillé and Benoit Chorro --- Chapter 3: Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Onsite and Offsite Meteorological Data for a Poderosa Pine Forest by Wonsook Ha, Abraham E. Springer, Frances C. O'Donnell and Thomas E. Kolb --- Chapter 4: Evapotranspiration in Northern Agro-Ecosystems: Numerical Simulation and Experimental Comparison by Watcharee Ruairuen, Gilberto J. Fochesatto, Marco Bittelli, Elena B. Sparrow, Mingchu Zhang and William Schnabel --- Chapter 5: Moisture Evaporation from Granular Biopesticides Containing Quiescent Entomopathogenic Nematodes by Carlos Inocencio Cortés-Martínez, Jaime Ruiz-Vega and Gabino Alberto Martínez-Gutiérrez
    Pages: Online-Ressource (114 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9789535131748
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Keywords: climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: 1. Planning the Adaptation to Climate Change in Cities: an Introduction / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Cristofori, Elena --- 2. Climate Change Characterisation and Planning in Large Tropical and Subtropical Cities / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Cristofori, Elena --- 3. Extreme Events Assessment Methodology as a Tool for Engineering Adaptation Measures – Case Study of North Coast of São Paulo State (SP), Brazil / Sakai, Rafael de Oliveira; Cartacho, Diego Lourenço; Arasaki, Emilia; Alfredini, Paolo; Rosso, Maurizio; Pezzoli, Alessandro; Cabral De Souza Junior, Wilson; Cabral De Souza, Wilson --- 4. Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought in the Chaco, Paraguay / Pezzoli, Alessandro; Ponte, Enrico --- 5. Characterization of Flood Hazard at a Municipal Level. A Case Study in Tillabéri Region, Niger / Bacci, Maurizio --- 6. Sensitivity of Dar Es Salaam Coastal Aquifer to Climate Change with Regard to Seawater Intrusion and Groundwater Availability / Sappa, Giuseppe; Luciani, Giulia --- 7. Impact of the Construction of an Offshore Highway on the Sea-Spray Dynamics in La Reunion Island / Piazzola, Jacques; Tedeschi, Gilles; Missamou, Tathy --- 8. Early Warning Systems & Geomatics: Value-added Information in the Absence of High Resolution Data / Cristofori, Elena; Albanese, Adriana; Boccardo, Piero --- 9. Planning the Adaptation of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: a Review of 14 Pilot Projects / Ponte, Enrico --- 10. National and Local Contingency Planning: a Comparative Analysis of Plans in Africa and Latin America / Ponte, Enrico --- 11. Measures of Adaptation and Community-based Water Management in Mékhé, Senegal / Biconne, Rita --- 12. Flood Risk Preliminary Mapping in Niamey, Niger / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Braccio, Sarah --- 13. Flood Risk Assessment at Municipal Level in the Tillabéri Region, Niger / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Braccio, Sarah --- 14. Drought Risk in the Tillabery Region, Niger / Tarchiani, Vieri; Bacci, Maurizio --- 15. Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Planning: a Proposed Approach for Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania / Macchi, Silvia; Ricci, Liana --- 16. Climate Change Adaptation in Dar es Salaam: Local Government Opinions and Proposed Interventions / Shemdoe, Riziki S.; Rugai, Dionis; Fantini, Laura --- 17. Household Level Vulnerability to Climate Change in Nepal – A Comparison of a Semi-urban and a Rural Village Development Committee / Giri, Madhav --- 18. Weather Observation Network and Climate Change Monitoring in Catalonia, Spain / Prohom, Marc; Puig, Oriol --- 19. Assessing flood risk in Zurich, Switzerland: the KR-RRA approach / Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Olschewski, Roland; Marcomini, Antonio --- 20. Flood Risk Assessment and Quantification in the Piedmont Region, Italy / Franzi, Luca; Bianco, Gennaro; Bruno, Alessandro; Foglino, Sara --- 21. Conclusion / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Ponte, Enrico
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIII, 380 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783110480795
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: global challenge ; commodities, pricing, and trade ; global trade ; climate change ; global emission goals ; trade policies ; global trade objectives ; climate regimes ; policy objective ; environment and pollution prevention
    Description / Table of Contents: Climate change remains a global challenge requiring international collaborative action. Another area where countries have successfully committed to a long-term multilateral resolution is the liberalization of international trade. Integration into the world economy has proven a powerful means for countries to promote economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. The broad objectives of the betterment of current and future human welfare are shared by both global trade and climate regimes. Yet both climate and trade agendas have evolved largely independently through the years, despite their mutually supporting objectives. Since global emission goals and global trade objectives are shared policy objectives of most countries, and nearly all of the World Bank's clients, it makes sense to consider the two sets of objectives together.This book is one of the first comprehensive attempts to look at the synergies between climate change and trade objectives from economic, legal, and institutional perspectives. It addresses an important policy question - how changes in trade policies and international cooperation on trade policies can help address global environmental spillovers, especially GHG emissions, and what the (potential) effects of (national) environmental policies that are aimed at global environmental problems might be for trade and investment. It explores opportunities for aligning development and energy policies in such a way that they could stimulate production, trade, and investment in cleaner technology options.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 144 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821372265
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Keywords: archaeology ; northern Australia ; environment ; climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: The research presented here is primarily concerned with human-environment interactions on the tropical coast of northern Australia during the late Holocene. Based on the suggestion that significant change can occur within short time-frames as a direct result of interactive processes, the archaeological evidence from the Point Blane Peninsula, Blue Mud Bay, is used to address the issue of how much change and variability occurred in hunter-gatherer economic and social structures during the late Holocene in coastal northeastern Arnhem Land. The suggestion proposed here is that processes of environmental and climatic change resulted in changes in resource distribution and abundance, which in turn affected patterns of settlement and resource exploitation strategies, levels of mobility and, potentially, the size of foraging groups on the coast. The question of human behavioural variability over the last 3000 years in Blue Mud Bay has been addressed by examining issues of scale and resolution in archaeological interpretation, specifically the differential chronological and spatial patterning of shell midden and mound sites on the peninsula in conjunction with variability in molluscan resource exploitation. To this end, the biological and ecological characteristics of the dominant molluscan species is considered in detail, in combination with assessing the potential for human impact through predation. Investigating pre-contact coastal foraging behaviour via the archaeological record provides an opportunity for change to recognised in a number of ways. For example, a differential focus on resources, variations in group size and levels of mobility can all be identified. It has also been shown that human-environment interactions are non-linear or progressive, and that human behaviour during the late Holocene was both flexible and dynamic.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIX, 216 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781925021103
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; climate change ; changement climatique
    Description / Table of Contents: Les scientifiques et les ingénieurs ont un rôle majeur à jouer pour l’avenir de l’humanité : ce sont eux qui ont pu alerter le monde sur le danger que court le climat de la planète et sur ses conséquences ; ce sont eux qui en ont identifié une cause très probable et sur laquelle nous pouvons réagir. Notre action dépend de nombreux facteurs : prise de conscience universelle, volontés politiques, solidarité entre les Etats et les peuples, moyens financiers... mais aussi in fine moyens scientifiques et techniques. Cependant, les ingénieurs ne sont pas des magiciens. Remplacer l’usage des ressources énergétiques traditionnelles, stockées depuis des millions d’années, par des ressources non carbonées, autant que possible renouvelables (nucléaire, hydraulique, géothermie, biomasse, vent, soleil…) demande du temps. L’objet de ce livre est double : montrer d’une part l’attention que les ingénieurs et scientifiques portent à cette menace fondamentale et leur compréhension du problème, d’autre part leur souhait de participer davantage aux débats et aux décisions, avec l’espoir d’aboutir à des orientations et des réalisations plus efficaces en faveur de l’objectif recherché. Les auteurs estiment que par leur indépendance, leur objectivité, leurs compétences et leur pragmatisme, les ingénieurs devraient contribuer au rapprochement entre rêve et réalité.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (104 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    ISBN: 9782759822508
    Language: French
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  • 16
    Unknown
    Johannesburg : Wits University Press
    Keywords: climate change ; climate crisis ; capitalism ; South Africa
    Description / Table of Contents: 1 The Climate Crisis and Systemic Alternatives Vishwas Satgar --- PART ONE :THE CLIMATE CRISIS AS CAPITALIST CRISIS --- 2 The Limits of Capitalist Solutions to the Climate Crisis Dorothy Grace Guerrero --- 3 The Anthropocene and Imperial Ecocide: Prospects for Just Transitions Vishwas Satgar --- PART TWO: DEMOCRATIC ECO-SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVES IN THE WORLD --- 4 The Employment Crisis, Just Transition and the Universal Basic Income Grant Hein Marais --- 5 The Rights of Mother Earth Pablo Sólon --- 6 Buen Vivir: An Alternative Perspective from the Peoples of the Global South Alberto Acosta and Mateo Martínez Abarca --- 7 Challenging the Growth Paradigm: Marx, Buddha and the Pursuit of ‘Happiness’ Devan Pillay --- 8 Ubuntu and the Struggle for an African Eco-socialist Alternative Christelle Terreblanche --- 9 The Climate Crisis and the Struggle for African Food Sovereignty Nnimmo Bassey --- PART THREE: DEMOCRATIC ECO-SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVES IN SOUTH AFRICA --- 10 The Climate Crisis and a ‘Just Transition’ in South Africa: An Eco-Feminist-Socialist Perspective Jacklyn Cock --- 11 Energy, Labour, and Democracy in South Africa Michelle Williams --- 12 Capital, Climate and the Politics of Nuclear Procurement in South Africa David Fig --- 13 Climate Jobs at Two Minutes to Midnight Brian Ashley --- 14 Deepening the Just Transition Through Food Sovereignty and the Solidarity Economy Andrew Bennie and Athish Satgoor --- 15 Eco-Capitalist Crises in the ‘Blue Economy’: Operation Phakisa’s Small, Slow Failures Desné Masie and Patrick Bond --- CONCLUSION: Vishwas Satgar
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 357 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781776142088
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Unknown
    Basel, Beijing, Wuhan, Barcelona, Belgrade : MDPI
    Keywords: climate change ; coastal forcing ; storm surge ; waves ; physical impacts on coasts ; environmental risk in coastal zones ; economic risks
    Description / Table of Contents: Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040141 --- Regional Scale Risk-Informed Land-Use Planning Using Probabilistic Coastline Recession Modelling and Economical Optimisation: East Coast of Sri Lanka / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040120 --- Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030092 --- Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coarse Scale Marsh Migration on Storm Surge Hydrodynamics and Waves on Coastal Protected Areas in the Chesapeake Bay / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030086 --- Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030079 --- Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030076 --- Failure of Grass Covered Flood Defences with Roads on Top Due to Wave Overtopping: A Probabilistic Assessment Method / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030074 --- Modelling Hydrodynamic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wave-Dominated Australian Estuaries with Differing Geomorphology / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020066 --- Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoS Model / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020059 --- An Effective Modelling Approach to Support Probabilistic Flood Forecasting in Coastal Cities—Case Study: Can Tho, Mekong Delta, Vietnam / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020055 --- Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping of Sea Dikes with Foreshores including Infragravity Waves and Morphological Changes: Westkapelle Case Study / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020048 --- How Well Do AR5 Sea Surface-Height Model Projections Match Observational Rates of Sea-Level Rise at the Regional Scale? / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010011 --- Two Centuries of Climate Change and Climate Variability, East Coast Australia / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010003 --- Jump to: Editorial, Research / Open AccessFeature PaperReview / Quantifying Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Review / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010005
    Pages: Online-Ressource (IX, 285 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    Edition: Printed Edition of the Special Issue Published in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
    ISBN: 9783038974826
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 19
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 20
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 21
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    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 22
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 23
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 24
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 25
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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  • 26
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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  • 27
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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  • 28
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    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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  • 29
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 30
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 31
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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  • 33
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 34
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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  • 35
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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  • 36
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 39
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 40
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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  • 43
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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  • 52
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 17-34 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: rainfall regime ; Ganga basin ; weighted regression ; climate change ; trend
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Data from three stations Agra, Dehradun and Dehli, were analyzed for evaluation of changes in rainfall and temperature regimes in the upper and middle parts of the Ganga basin in northern India. Long-term data on monsoon rainfall, the number of rainy days during the monsoon season, and the annual maximum temperature at these stations were included in the analysis. Nonparametric methods were employed to identify trends, if any, in these data. The analysis shows that the total monsoon rainfall and the number of rainy days during the monsoon season are on the decline, whereas the annual maximum temperature is on the rise. These changes are observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960's. The results point towards a possible change in the climatic regime of the Ganga basin that has far-reaching implications for the Indian economy.
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    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 407-435 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; hydrology ; water management ; water resources
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems. The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.
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    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
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    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
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    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
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    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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  • 61
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 137-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; decision-making ; variability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 199-213 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; impact assessment ; response options ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 227-237 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; climate variability ; data ; climate applications ; El Niño ; UNFCCC
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 239-252 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; coastal zones ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; IPCC Technical Guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 283-293 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: natural catastrophes ; climate change ; changing extremes ; costs of climate ; change ; insurance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In the last few decades, the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions, which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves, on the other hand, are showing a change for the worse as many atmospheric extremes are strongly influenced by global warming. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing, capacity and loss reserves, the assessment of insured liabilities, preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The changing probability distributions of many processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, tornados, hailstorms, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance, apart from the consequences of the stratospheric ozone destruction for health and life insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed, as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 295-306 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: disasters ; storms ; floods ; droughts ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for geological disasters. Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from greenhouse gases? Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The task is only begun.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 343-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; socioeconomic impacts ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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  • 85
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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  • 91
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilization scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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  • 97
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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    Natural hazards 16 (1997), S. 135-163 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: climate change ; extreme events ; insurance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract At the same time that a scientific consensus has arisen that the world will most likely experience a changing climate in the near future, with more frequent extreme events of some weather hazards, the insurance industry, worldwide, has been hit with rapidly escalating costs from weather-related disasters. This conjunction of scientific belief and economic impact has raised the questions as to (1) whether more frequent extreme events have contributed to the rising insurance costs and (2) how will future climate change affect the industry? Based upon historical data, it is difficult to support the hypothesis that the recent run of disasters both world-wide and in Canada are caused by climate change; more likely other factors such as increased wealth, urbanization, and population migration to vulnerable areas are of significance. It seems likely, though, that in the future some extreme events such as convective storms (causing heavy downpours, hail and tornadoes), drought and heat waves will result in increased costs to the industry, should the climate change as anticipated.
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    Water resources management 7 (1993), S. 273-287 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Sacramento model ; rainfall-runoff ; time series ; precipitation ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; runoff changes ; climate change ; soil moisture
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming. Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account ‘accidental’ influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.
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    Water resources management 10 (1996), S. 463-478 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; reservoir operation ; streamflow generation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on the operational performance of water resource systems was investigated in this paper. A multi-site streamflow generation model was used to synthesize potential monthly flow sequences reflecting two different sets of climatic conditions. The generated data were subsequently employed as input to a reservoir operation model that was used to determine the reservoir response to the inflow resulting from the implementation of the reservoir operating policy. The performance of an example reservoir system, the Shellmouth Reservoir located in the Canadian province of Manitoba, was evaluated and compared for the two sets of conditions. The operational performance was evaluated in terms of the reliability of the system for meeting the three purposes of the actual reservoir. The reservoir performance was determined to be sensitive to the inflow data. The results indicate that climatic change has potentially important implications for the operation of the example reservoir system.
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