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  • Articles  (261)
  • climate change  (131)
  • risk assessment  (71)
  • monitoring  (65)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (261)
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  • 1
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    Disagreement and Responses to Climate Change (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-11-01
    Description: The potential harms associated with global climate change demand an urgent response. But at the same time, the nature and extent of both the problem and our proper response to it are continually contested, within the academic community and wider society. What should be the ethical import of this disagreement? In this paper I set out John Rawls' theory of reasonable disagreement as a way of analysing such contestation. On Rawls' account, reasonable disagreement is founded in diversity rather than straightforward error. I argue that many aspects of the scientific and ethical debate on climate change can be usefully viewed from within such a perspective. This raises, I suggest, serious problems for deciding what the human response to global warming must be. Lastly, I survey two responses which might be thought to cope with such pervasive disagreement. Neither, however, is clearly effective. In my conclusion I suggest that reasonable disagreement might be tackled best in a model of deliberative democracy. Such a model, however, does not generate easy answers to the problems of climate change.
    Keywords: climate change ; reasonable disagreement ; political liberalism ; justice ; environmental ethics
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 2
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    The Possibility of a Joint Communique: My Response to Hourdequin (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: This article is a response to Marion Hourdequin, 'Climate, Collective Action and Individual Ethical Obligations', Environmental Values 19 (2010): 443-464. As Hourdequin argues, we have an obligation to reduce our individual emissions of greenhouse gases. This obligation is not, however, to reduce to the level that would be sustainable if everyone else did likewise. We are obligated to make limited reductions in the service of our primary obligation to organise and embrace collective schemes to ensure that everyone reduces emissions and that benefits to the environment are proportionate to the sacrifices made. She and I can agree on the existence of an obligation if she recognises that there is a fundamental difference between the obligations we have to avoid individually harmful actions and our obligations in a tragedy of the commons.
    Keywords: ethics ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; obligations ; collective action ; virtue ; greenhouse gases
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 3
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    Climate Change and the Convergence between ENGOs and Business: On the Loss of Utopian Energies (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: The conflicts permeating the environmental debate since the 1960s have mainly involved two actors: multinational companies and international environmental organizations (ENGOs). Today, there are signs that the antagonism is ending with regards to co-operation and strategy. We argue that this convergence is no longer limited to specific joint projects, but is also prevalent at the idea and policy levels. Both actors have begun describing problems in similar terms, articulating the same goals and recommending the same solutions. Such convergence offers advantages in efforts to counteract climate change but also some problems: declining citizen trust in ENGOs, risk of intellectually impoverished environmental and energy debates, and loss of alternate visions and values.
    Keywords: ENGO ; BINGO ; oil industry ; climate change ; organisational environmental discourse
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 4
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    Climate Change and Individual Responsibility: A Reply to Johnson (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: Can unilateral action be an effective response to global climate change? Baylor Johnson worries that a focus on unilateral action by individuals will detract from efforts to secure collective agreements to address the problem. Although Johnson and I agree that individuals have some obligation to reduce their personal emissions, we differ in the degree to which we see personal reductions as effective in spurring broader change. I argue that 'unilateral reductions' can have communicative value and that they can change the structure of collective action problems, making such problems easier to solve. Since collective action problems are much less tractable where individuals abide by the tenets of traditional game theory and much more tractable where individuals are oriented to cooperate and to trust that others will reciprocate, we need moral norms that promote individual restraint in exploitation of the commons, and we ought ourselves to abide by those norms.
    Keywords: collective action ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; moral obligation ; unilateral action
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A polyolefin dosimeter system
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    International Journal of Radiation Applications & Instrumentation. Part C, 35 (1990), S. 750-753 
    Details
    ISSN: 1359-0197
    Keywords: Dosimetry system ; dosemeter ; monitoring ; polyolefin ; radiation ; radiation processes
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/1359-0197(90)90309-6
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global climate change in the instrumental period
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90019-1
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate and some cause-oriented proposals for sufficiently reducing this share
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90027-2
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90026-4
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90038-8
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The carbon budget of Canadian forests: A sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90022-1
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change and human history. Some indications from Europe, ad 400-1400
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90020-5
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90039-6
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Exposure to Persistent Organochlorines in Canadian Breast Milk: A Probabilistic Assessment (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 527-545 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: breast-feeding ; chlorinated compounds ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Exposure to persistent organochlorines in breast milk was estimated probabilistically for Canadian infants. Noncancer health effects were evaluated by comparing the predicted exposure distributions to published guidance values. For chemicals identified as potential human carcinogens, cancer risks were evaluated using standard methodology typically applied in Canada, as well as an alternative method developed under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Potential health risks associated with exposure to persistent organochlorines were quantitatively and qualitatively weighed against the benefits of breast-feeding. Current levels of the majority of contaminants identified in Canadian breast milk do not pose unacceptable risks to infants. Benefits of breast-feeding are well documented and qualitatively appear to outweigh potential health concerns associated with organochlorine exposure. Furthermore, the risks of mortality from not breast-feeding estimated by Rogan and colleagues exceed the theoretical cancer risks estimated for infant exposure to potential carcinogens in Canadian breast milk. Although levels of persistent compounds have been declining in Canadian breast milk, potentially significant risks were estimated for exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls, dibenzo-p-dioxins, and dibenzofurans. Follow-up work is suggested that would involve the use of a physiologically based toxicokinetic model with probabilistic inputs to predict dioxin exposure to the infant. A more detailed risk analysis could be carried out by coupling the exposure estimates with a dose–response analysis that accounts for uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007065032101
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 689-701 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk ; risk perception ; risk assessment ; risk communication ; risk management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept “risk” and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach—one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007041821623
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Human Interindividual Variability in Parameters Related to Health Risks (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 711-726 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: variability ; exposure ; susceptibility ; risk assessment ; pharmacokinetics ; pharmacodynamics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters and parameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are: •Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per body weight) •Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate •General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilution via Distribution Volume (e.g., initial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake) •Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance) •Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration •Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant) •Functional Reserve Capacity–Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal Function Comparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process–differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimating effective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants that are thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007045922532
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 763-807 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; probabilistic risk assessment ; performance assessment ; policy analysis ; history of technology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007058325258
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Risk Perception in Context: The Savannah River Site Stakeholder Study (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1019-1035 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk perception ; CRESP ; trust ; DOE Savannah River site ; risk assessment ; stakeholder ; economic dependence
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to human health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted with the purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007095808381
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Quantifying Uncertainty in a Risk Assessment Using Human Data (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1077-1090 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; uncertainty ; formaldehyde ; decision analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approach that draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenic risks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007026510198
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Vehicle Emission Unit Risk Factors for Transportation Risk Assessments (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1157-1171 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; transportation risk ; diesel exhaust ; fugitive dust ; vehicle emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007038812924
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1215-1222 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: municipal waste incineration ; risk assessment ; Monte-Carlo simulation ; time activity patterns
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracer pollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1, 1, 1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2·10−5 μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5·10−5 and 6.5·10−5 μg/m3), yielding a 2.6·10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2·10−10–5.4·10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8·10−4 μg/m3 (0.9.10−4 – 3.6·10−4 μg/m3) and 8.6·10−8 (4.3·10−8–17.3·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3·10−6 μg/m3 (4.0·10−6–17.6·10−6) and 1.5·10−8 (7.2·10−9–3.1·10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007099031580
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  • 21
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Evaluation of the Uncertainty in an Oral Reference Dose for Methylmercury Due to Interindividual Variability in Pharmacokinetics (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 547-558 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: MeHg ; pharmacokinetics ; PBPK model ; variability ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract An analysis of the uncertainty in guidelines for the ingestion of methylmercury (MeHg) due to human pharmacokinetic variability was conducted using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that describes MeHg kinetics in the pregnant human and fetus. Two alternative derivations of an ingestion guideline for MeHg were considered: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 μg/kg/day derived from studies of an Iraqi grain poisoning episode, and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry chronic oral minimal risk level (MRL) of 0.5 μg/kg/day based on studies of a fish-eating population in the Seychelles Islands. Calculation of an ingestion guideline for MeHg from either of these epidemiological studies requires calculation of a dose conversion factor (DCF) relating a hair mercury concentration to a chronic MeHg ingestion rate. To evaluate the uncertainty in this DCF across the population of U.S. women of child-bearing age, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which distributions for each of the parameters in the PBPK model were randomly sampled 1000 times. The 1st and 5th percentiles of the resulting distribution of DCFs were a factor of 1.8 and 1.5 below the median, respectively. This estimate of variability is consistent with, but somewhat less than, previous analyses performed with empirical, one-compartment pharmacokinetic models. The use of a consistent factor in both guidelines of 1.5 for pharmacokinetic variability in the DCF, and keeping all other aspects of the derivations unchanged, would result in an RfD of 0.2 μg/kg/day and an MRL of 0.3 μg/kg/day.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007017116171
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  • 22
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Estimating Risk Assessment Exposure Point Concentrations when the Data Are Not Normal or Lognormal (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 577-584 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; exposure point concentration ; bootstrapping ; gamma distribution ; lognormal
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends the use of the one-sided 95% upper confidence limit of the arithmetic mean based on either a normal or lognormal distribution for the contaminant (or exposure point) concentration term in the Superfund risk assessment process. When the data are not normal or lognormal this recommended approach may overestimate the exposure point concentration (EPC) and may lead to unecessary cleanup at a hazardous waste site. The EPA concentration term only seems to perform like alternative EPC methods when the data are well fit by a lognormal distribution. Several alternative methods for calculating the EPC are investigated and compared using soil data collected from three hazardous waste sites in Montana, Utah, and Colorado. For data sets that are well fit by a lognormal distribution, values for the Chebychev inequality or the EPA concentration term may be appropriate EPCs. For data sets where the soil concentration data are well fit by gamma distributions, Wong's method may be used for calculating EPCs. The studentized bootstrap-t and Hall's bootstrap-t transformation are recommended for EPC calculation when all distribution fits are poor. If a data set is well fit by a distribution, parametric bootstrap may provide a suitable EPC.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007021217080
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  • 23
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Role of Performance Assessment in the Regulation of Underground Disposal of Radioactive Wastes: An International Perspective (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 809-846 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: regulation ; radioactive waste ; performance assessment ; risk assessment ; regulatory assessment ; bias evaluation ; international collaboration ; underground disposal ; quantitative risk analysis ; public debate ; decision process
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators' review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007010409328
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    Target Levels—Tools for Prevention (1998)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 679-688 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Air quality ; benchmarking ; best available control technology ; contaminant exposure ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:RIAN.0000005915.60392.4b
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    Context in the Risk Assessment of Digital Systems (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 23-32 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Software failures ; software hazard analysis ; safety-critical systems ; risk assessment ; context
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006998025354
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    Influence of Prenatal Mercury Exposure Upon Scholastic and Psychological Test Performance: Benchmark Analysis of a New Zealand Cohort (1998)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 701-713 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Benchmark ; mercury ; risk assessment ; epidemiology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mg/kg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mg/kg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mg/kg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mg/kg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mg/kg.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:RIAN.0000005917.52151.e6
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    Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders (1998)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 621-634 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Remediation ; stakeholders ; deliberation ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision-making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the “analysis”) in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:RIAN.0000005936.45310.22
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    A Risk Assessment Method for Biological Introductions (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 327-334 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Biological introductions ; binucleate Rhizoctonia ; biocontrol ; risk assessment ; seedlings ; susceptibility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007032124832
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    Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1091-1100 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: dose-response ; models ; food-borne ; pathogens ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose-response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal, log-logistic, exponential, β-Poisson and Weibull-Gamma. These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella flexneri, Shigella dysenteriae,Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella typhosa, using the method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007078527037
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    Ethylene Oxide Cancer Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiological Data: Application of Revised Regulatory Guidelines (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1135-1155 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: ethylene oxide ; risk assessment ; epidemiology ; cancer guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of the animal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenarios and a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007086728854
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    A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting PELs and TLVs for Carcinogens (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1223-1234 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; standard-setting ; carcinogens ; OSHA ; ACGIH
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007051215650
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    A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 83-94 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Extreme events ; risk assessment ; risk management ; extreme value theory ; judgmental distributions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include: guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006958311241
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    Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 461-471 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007004813446
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    Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 473-486 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Market response ; risk assessment ; airplane accidents ; airline industry
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007056830284
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    What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision-Making? (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 95-107 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Uncertainty ; variability ; risk assessment ; risk management ; ozone ; clean air act ; social policy ; analysis of benefits and costs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006910428080
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    The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 135-152 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Probability ; uncertainty ; data ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Risk assessors attempting to use probabilistic approaches to describe uncertainty often find themselves in a data-sparse situation: available data are only partially relevant to the parameter of interest, so one needs to adjust empirical distributions, use explicit judgmental distributions, or collect new data. In determining whether or not to collect additional data, whether by measurement or by elicitation of experts, it is useful to consider the expected value of the additional information. The expected value of information depends on the prior distribution used to represent current information; if the prior distribution is too narrow, in many risk-analytic cases the calculated expected value of information will be biased downward. The well-documented tendency toward overconfidence, including the neglect of potential surprise, suggests this bias may be substantial. We examine the expected value of information, including the role of surprise, test for bias in estimating the expected value of information, and suggest procedures to guard against overconfidence and underestimation of the expected value of information when developing prior distributions and when combining distributions obtained from multiple experts. The methods are illustrated with applications to potential carcinogens in food, commercial energy demand, and global climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006966613058
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    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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    Modeling of transport in groundwater for environmental risk assessment (1994)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 57-77 
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    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic transport ; risk assessment ; concentration CDF ; exceedance probabilities
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents the principles underlying a recently developed numerical technique for modeling transport in heterogeneous porous media. The method is then applied to derive the concentration mean and variance, the concentration CDF, exceedance probabilities and exposure time CDF, which are required by various regulatory agencies for risk and performance assessment calculations. The dependence of the various statistics on elapsed travel time, location in space, the dimension of the detection volume, natural variability and pore-scale dispersion is investigated and discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581390
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    A direct reading exposure monitor for radiation processing
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Radiation Physics and Chemistry 18 (1981), S. 937-946 
    Details
    ISSN: 0146-5724
    Keywords: Radiachromic ; dosimetry ; megarad dose ; monitoring ; quality assurance
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0146-5724(81)90284-3
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    A simple method of dosimetry for e-beam radiation
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Radiation Physics and Chemistry 25 (1985), S. 755-761 
    Details
    ISSN: 0146-5724
    Keywords: Electron beam ; dose ; dosimetry ; monitoring ; quality assurance ; ultraviolet
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
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    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0146-5724(85)90155-4
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    El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Related Probabilities of Fatalities from Natural Perils in Australia (2000)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 22 (2000), S. 117-138 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: fatalities ; flood ; bushfire ; heatwave ; eastern Australia ; ENSO ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers. The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008187117471
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    Contribution of Geographical Information Systems to the Management of Volcanic Crises (2000)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 347-360 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: volcanic hazard ; risk assessment ; GIS ; physical simulation models ; information systems ; emergency planning
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The incorporation of a set ofcomputer-based tools, such as Geographical InformationSystems and physical models, to the field of riskassessment, introduces a new perspective in thevolcanic risk maps production, increasing the analysisand modelling capabilities available through theapplication of conventional methodologies. Amethodology adapted to the requirements andcharacteristics of the new operating environment hasbeen applied at Tenerife island (Canary Islands,Spain) to carry out a study devoted to analyse thesuitability of these tools for near real-timemanagement of volcanic crises. With this in mind, aseries of potential eruption scenarios have beenselected to identify and characterise which elementsat risk would prove most vulnerable against a specificvolcanic phenomenon, depending on the socio-economiccharacteristics of the area affected and the resultingdistribution of the volcanic products. This kind ofinformation is fundamental to update, adapt or produceeffective risk management and emergency plans orprotocols, where the measures to mitigate or fightagainst a specific volcanic disaster have to be taken,incorporating the existing knowledge of the phenomenonbehaviour and taking into account their potentialeffects on the area of interest.
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    GIS Techniques for Mapping Groundwater Contamination Risk (1999)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 279-294 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; groundwater contamination ; vulnerability ; GIS ; hazard ; economic ; value
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The groundwater contamination risk map of a samplealluvial area was produced by using the IlwisGeographical Information System (GIS) to construct andto overlay thematic maps. The risk map has beenderived from the vulnerability map, the hazard map,where the potential contaminating sources wereidentified, and the socio-economic value of thegroundwater resource, represented by the wells. Thegroundwater quality map allowed thereliability of hazard and risk maps to be tested. The final map shows interesting results and stressesthe need for the GIS to test and improve on thegroundwater contamination risk assessment methods.
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    Risk Assessment, Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood, Canada (2000)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 225-245 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; emergency preparedness ; legislative measures ; flood prevention and mitigation ; forecasting and warning ; control structure ; public participation ; Canada ; Red River Valley
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts. In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008108208545
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    Regional Air Quality Modelling in Canada – Applications for Policy and Real-Time Prediction (2000)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 101-129 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: acid rain ; photochemical smog ; ground-level ozone ; particulate matter ; modelling ; monitoring ; real-time prediction ; policy application
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Acid rain and photochemical smog are two regionalair-quality issues that have received considerableattention in the last two decades due to their harmfuleffects. Health impacts of particulate matter (PM) inthe atmosphere is another issue of concern. Sulphur dioxide emission controls were introducedin both Canada and the U.S.A. to reduceacid-deposition-related damage. While these emissionreductions have already resulted in reduced sulphatedeposition, based on results from modelling studiesmuch of southeastern Canada is still expected toexperience damaging levels of acid deposition evenafter all currently legislated emission controls arefully implemented. Moreover, there has not been acorresponding reduction in the acidity ofprecipitation. This may be attributable to aconcurrent reduction in base-cation concentration inprecipitation. Models were also developed to understand theformation, transport and diffusion of troposphericozone. The models have been used to provide policyguidance for emission control options to reduceground-level ozone to acceptable limits. In thesummer of 1997 a Canadian pilot project was initiatedto provide real-time forecasts of ground-level ozonein the southeastern part of the province of NewBrunswick in eastern Canada. With the emergence of fine Particulate Matter(PM2.5) as a health concern, efforts are underwayin Canada to develop a “unified'' regional air-qualitymodel that will address the combined impacts ofvarious pollutants in the atmosphere. In this effortthe atmosphere is viewed as a single entity where theimpacts of multiple pollutants are considered at thesame time.
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    The tsunami threat on the Mexican west coast: A historical analysis and recommendations for hazard mitigation (1991)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 4 (1991), S. 301-316 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Tsunami catalog ; precursors ; warning system ; public education ; risk assessment ; Mexico ; Mesoamerican subduction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract From an inspection of all tide gauge records for the western coast of Mexico over the last 37 years, a data base of all recorded tsunamis was made. Information on relevant historical events dating back two centuries, using newspaper archives, previous catalogs, and local witness interviews, was added to produce a catalog of tsunamis for the western coast of Mexico. A description of the 1932 Cuyutlán tsunami is given. This is considered to be the most destructive local tsunami which has ever occurred in the region for which historical accounts are available. It was preceded by two precursor events, a not uncommon occurrence in that zone. A summary of the generation and coastal effects from the 1985 Michoacán tsunamis is also given. These Michoacán tsunamis are the most recent local events in that zone. This information, and knowledge of local undersea faulting characteristics along the Mexican Pacific coast, leads to a clear differentiation of two zones of potential tsunami hazard: locally generated tsunamis south of the Rivera fracture, in the Cocos plate subsidence region, and remotely generated tsunamis north of this zone. Based on this zonation, two types of tsunami warning systems are proposed: real-time for the southern zone, and delayed-time for the northern. A description is provided of the Baja California Regional Tsunami Warning System that is presently operational in the northern zone. Several major industrial ports and tourist resort areas are located in the southern zone, and are therefore most vulnerable to local destructive tsunamis. Some of these sites represent important socioeconomic resources for Mexico, and have therefore been chosen for a vulnerability assessment and microzonation risk analysis. Land use patterns are identified, risks defined, and recommendations to minimize future tsunami impact are given. One case is illustrated.
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    Research implications of the 1988 Canadian prairie provinces drought (1992)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 6 (1992), S. 109-129 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Drought ; agriculture ; hydrology ; monitoring ; research
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The 1988 drought conditions, which prevailed over the southern portion of the Canadian prairie provinces, resulted in severe impacts on agriculture, water resources, forestry, and waterfowl production. In this paper, the climatological aspects of the drought are reviewed and the impacts of the drought are described. In addition, a number of the environmental factors that may have aggravated the drought's impacts are discussed. Processes contributing to the 1988 drought are considered in terms of their scales, relative importance and possible effects. It was evident from the information needs of government agencies and private businesses which had to cope with the effects of the 1988 drought, that studies are needed to effectively monitor drought and adjust to its impacts. In this paper, these needs are discussed; several specific hypotheses concerning drought-related processes are advanced and a framework for addressing the scientific aspects of droughts on the Canadian prairies is proposed. It is anticipated that many of these identified research needs and opportunities are applicable to other drought-prone areas of the world.
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    Tritium environmental transport studies at TFTR (1993)
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    Journal of fusion energy 12 (1993), S. 145-148 
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    ISSN: 1572-9591
    Keywords: tritium ; transport ; monitoring ; environment ; model ; validation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Environmental tritium concentrations will be measured near the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) to help validate dynamic models of tritium transport in the environment. For model validation the database must contain sequential measurements of tritium concentrations in key environmental compartments. Since complete containment of tritium is an operational goal, the supplementary monitoring program should be able to glean useful data from an unscheduled acute release. Portable air samplers will be used to take samples automatically every 4 hours for a week after an acute release, thus obtaining the time resolution needed for code validation. Samples of soil, vegetation, and foodstuffs will be gathered daily at the same locations as the active air monitors. The database may help validate the plant/soil/air part of tritium transport models and enhance environmental tritium transport understanding for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER).
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    Effects of forest fire and drought on acidity of a base-poor boreal forest stream: similarities between climatic warming and acidic precipitation (1992)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (1992), S. 191-204 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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    Monitoring the progress of attempts to reduce nutrient load and inputs of certain compounds in the north sea by 50% (1990)
    Springer
    Environmental management 14 (1990), S. 221-227 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Nutrient reduction ; North Sea ; monitoring
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract During the winter period an inverse linear relation is found between the concentration of dissolved nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) and salinity in the Dutch coastal zone. This indicates a conservative behavior of these compounds from the river, through the estuary to the sea. During summer this relation is much more scattered because of biological processes. The physical and statistical properties of the relationship between salinity and the concentration of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen are used to calculate when, where, and how many samples have to be taken in order to monitor a reduction of a compound accurately. It appeared that at any given salinity in the estuary and in the sea, the winter period is the most suitable season to detect a reduction of a given dissolved compound. The higher the salinity in the estuary, the more samples are required to prove the reduction significantly. A reduction of only 10% cannot even be demonstrated by field measurements during summer at salinities above 25. It is concluded that one cruise from the river to the sea, covering the salinities from 0 to 35 during the winter period, aimed at establishing the relationship between the concentration and salinity by taking samples at a salinity interval of for instance 1%, is sufficient to monitor a wide-ranging reduction of 10%–50% in both the fresh water and marine water. This program must be combined with a sampling at a salinity of 0, directed to determine the riverine temporal variability.
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    Monitoring of heavy metals in protected forest catchments in Sweden (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 755-760 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Heavy metals ; catchment studies ; metal fluxes ; monitoring
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term integrated catchment monitoring within the Swedish Environmental Monitoring Programme (PMK) aims primarely at the fate and effects of pollutants in mature ecosystems, mainly protected boreal forests. The measurements that were conducted since the early eighties, with some variation, included deposition, throughfall, litterfall and the chemistry of soil water, groundwater and runoff water.Together with, or perhaps partly due to acidification, accumulation and transport of heavy metals are a serious threat to the ecosystem and in the end to the health of human beings. This paper discuss the behaviour of Hg, Pb, Cd, Zn and Cu based on the experiece gained from the studies in the small catchment areas. The importance of present deposition, soil storage and biogeochemical condition for metal mobility to the transport of metals is discussed The storages of Hg and Pb have been built up during a long time span and are very large in comparison with the flux. The present atmospheric deposition have probably little impact on the flux, which rather is governed by the biogeochemical conditions. There is still a small accumulation of Cd, but its great mobility under acidic conditions makes input and output almost in balance. A reduction in deposition will probably have an immediate effect on flux, which also is the case for Zn. Cu generally accumulates in soil. The mobility and hence the flux are certainly regulated by the biogeochemical conditions, but more detailed studies are required to reveal the general mecanisms for Cu transport within the catchment.
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    An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions, acid deposition and climate change (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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    Environmental Appraisal and Environmental Policy in the European Union (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 489-501 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis ; environmental policy ; precautionary principle ; risk assessment ; sustainable development
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Revisions to the European Treaty of Union require some form of environmental appraisal – primarily risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis – of regulatory initiatives by the European Commission. A retrospective look at the emergence of environmental appraisal also shows that, while the Commission has made great advances in introducing cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness appraisals in recent years, past environmental decisions and overall environmental policy have not been informed by systematic appraisal techniques. Nor is it clear what role is now being played by risk assessments. While it is impossible to gauge the extent to which systematic appraisal procedures will save on regulatory and compliance expenditures, some indications are provided of the costs of past neglect of these procedures.
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    Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity (1996)
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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    Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 267-280 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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    Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise? (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 301-306 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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    Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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    Factor biases and promoting sustainable development: Adaptation to drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00455057
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    Adapting to Climate Change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004663.31074.64
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    Adapting to climate change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437055
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    Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 101-115 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; costs ; forests ; Joint Implementation ; mitigation ; monitoring ; policies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C substitution. The paper provides background information on the technical potential for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437198
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    Project specific monitoring and verification: State of the art and challenges (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 191-202 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Carbon storage ; Joint Implementation ; monitoring ; remote sensing
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Adequate monitoring of carbon sequestered by forestry activities is essential to the future of forestry as a climate change mitigation option. A wide range of approaches has been taken to monitor changes in forest carbon attributable to project activities. This paper describes simple, least-cost/least-precision methods, remote sensing, periodic carbon inventories, and traditional research methods. Periodic carbon inventories are the preferred approach because they are cost-effective, provide measurements with known levels of precision, and allow the monitoring of other values such as biodiversity and commercial timber volumes. Verification of monitoring estimates is discussed as an auditing process designed to evaluate reported carbon sequestration values. The limitations of remote sensing for biomass determination and the potential for changes in monitoring approaches due to improvements in technology are briefly reviewed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437203
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  • 66
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    An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027386.34214.60
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    A Framework for Monitoring and Evaluating Carbon Mitigation by Farm Forestry Projects: Example of a Demonstration Project in Chiapas, Mexico (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 231-246 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Farm forestry ; carbon sequestration ; monitoring ; evaluation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In Mexico an estimated 4.5 × 106ha are available for farm forestry, while up to 6.1 × 106 ha could be saved from deforestation by making shifting agriculture more productive and sustainable. Various farm forestry systems are technically, socially, and economically viable, including live fences, coffee with shade trees, plantations, tree enrichment of fallows, and taungya, with a C-sequestration potential varying from 17.6 to 176.3 Mg C ha−1. A self-reporting system with on-site spot checks is presented for the monitoring and evaluation (M&E), and will be tested in a farm forestry C-sequestration pilot project, to begin in Chiapas, Mexico, in 1997. The M&E procedure will facilitate the collection of field data at low cost, help ensure that the systems continue to address the needs of farmers, and give farmers an understanding of the value of the service that they are providing.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004479.17784.f8
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    Policies, Measures and the Monitoring Needs of Forest Sector Carbon Mitigation (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 101-115 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; costs ; forests ; Joint Implementation ; mitigation ; monitoring ; policies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C substitution. The paper provides background information on the technical potential for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward the reduction of atmosphere greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004481.90791.67
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    A framework for monitoring and evaluating carbon mitigation by farm forestry projects: Example of a demonstration project in Chiapas, Mexico (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 231-246 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Farm forestry ; carbon sequestration ; monitoring ; evaluation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In Mexico an estimated 4.5×106ha are available for farm forestry, while up to 6.1×106ha could be saved from deforestation by making shifting agriculture more productive and sustainable. Various farm forestry systems are technically, socially, and economically viable, including live fences, coffee with shade trees, plantations, tree enrichment of fallows, and taungya, with a C-sequestration potential varying from 17.6 to 176.3 Mg C ha−1. A self-reporting system with on-site spot checks is presented for the monitoring and evaluation (M&E), and will be tested in a farm forestry C-sequestration pilot project, to begin in Chiapas, Mexico, in 1997. The M&E procedure will facilitate the collection of field data at low cost, help ensure that the systems continue to address the needs of farmers, and give farmers an understanding of the value of the service that they are providing.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437206
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    Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478340
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    Sulphur and nitrogen deposition in Norway, status and trends (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 623-628 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: monitoring ; deposition ; sulphur ; nitrogen
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The total deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) components in Norway during the period 1988–1992 has been estimated on the basis of measurement data of air- and precipitation chemistry from the national monitoring network. There are large regional variations in depositions with highest values in the southwestern part of Norway. Time series analysis of annual mean concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and sulphate (SO4 −−) in air, non marine SO4 −−, nitrate (NO3 −) and ammonium (NH4 +) in precipitation, shows a significant reduction in the S concentrations both in air and precipitation. In precipitation the concentrations are reduced by 30–45 percent in Southern Norway and 45–55 percent in Central and Northern Norway. Even larger reductions are observed in air concentrations with 50–65 percent reduction in Southern Norway and 65–88 percent reduction further north. For N components there are generally no significant trends in concentration levels nor in precipitation or air. The observed trends are comparable with reported trends in emission.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476898
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    Acidification in Norway — Status and trends (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 629-634 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; monitoring ; calibrated catchments ; lakes ; rivers ; ground water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Surface and ground water monitoring in Norway is designed to give a regional coverage with most of the stations in areas with acidification and some stations in unpolluted areas that give background values. Surface water (weekly sampling) and precipitation (daily measurement) are monitored at 6 calibrated catchments, 5 located in southern Norway and 1 in northernmost Norway close to the Russian border. Ground water (weekly sampling) is monitored in 4 reservoirs in Southern Norway. 73 lakes located all over Norway are surveyed each fall. Nineteen rivers in western and southern Norway are monitored by monthly sampling. All sites are considered sensitive to acidification and are chosen to minimise the effects of anthropogenic catchment based impacts. Results from the monitoring over the period 1980–1994 show that there is a reduction of sulphate of about 25–35% in surface waters which is related to a 30–45% reduction in sulphate concentration in precipitation. An improvement in water quality as measured as increase in ANC has only been apparent since 1990. Due to heavy seasalt episodes in the most coastal catchments like Birkenes and the rivers in western Norway, there has been no improvement of ANC since 1980. Deposition of nitrogen has not changed over the last 10 years, and there is no change in the levels of nitrate in the monitored surface waters.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476899
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    Assessment of the use of principal components analysis to relate air and precipitation chemistry to climate (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477204
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478335
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 37-78 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478336
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    Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 79-131 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478337
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    Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478339
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    Estimate of health impacts of acidifying air pollutants and tropospheric ozone in Europe (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 167-176 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollution ; health effects ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Based on combined information available from air quality monitoring data and long-range transport models, European population exposure to SO2, NO2 and O3 has been estimated. This information has been combined with the results of epidemiological studies assessing strength of association between the exposure and health effects to estimate an impact of the pollution on health in Europe. The analysis indicates that a considerable number of health problems, ranging from mild irritation of the respiratory system to increased mortality, can be attributed to short-term peaks of pollution observed in Europe. Chronic impacts of prolonged elevated SO2 levels on lung function are estimated to occur in close to10 million people in Europe.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00483698
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    Groundwater acidification at Birkenes, southern Norway: Comparing trends of chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, soilwater and groundwater (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1861-1866 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; buffering ; groundwater ; monitoring ; precipitation ; seasalt ; soil ; soilwater ; throughfall
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Chemical time trends for precipitation, throughfall, and soilwater (1986–1992), and groundwater (1980–1993) at Birkenes, southern Norway, are compared to gain insights into possible causes for the recent increase in groundwater acidification there. Precipitation and throughfall trends do not show evidence for an increase in anthropogenic acids (e.g. sulphate), but seasalt deposition (e.g. chloride) has been marginally greater in 1990–1992 than in most previous years on record. Soilwater composition partly indicates increasing acidification in recent years (pH, Al and ANC), but hardness and sulphate content are decreasing. Soilwater ANC became negative in 1989, revealing a lasting deficit in its potential to buffer acidity. Groundwater shows clear signs of intensifying acidification (pH, Al, ANC, hardness and sulphate), and this may result partly from climatic conditions (mild winters, ‘seasalt episodes’) and partly from the deterioration of an acid buffering system within the soil cover. Acidification via sulphate deposition certainly is not a direct cause. The declining hardness of soilwater suggests that the ion-exchange buffer in the soil may have ceased to function properly. The necessity for obtaining long-term time-series of water chemistry is underscored by this study.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477251
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    Organochlorinated compounds (PCBs and insecticides) in irrigated agrolandscapes of Russia and Uzbekistan (1996)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 89 (1996), S. 247-266 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: chlororganic compounds ; insecticides ; polychlorobiphenyls ; monitoring ; irrigated agrolandscapes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The spatial and temporal distribution of persistent chlororganic compounds in the form of insecticide residues—DDT, DDE, DDD, HCH and industrial pollutants—polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) has been monitored in various components of irrigated agrolandscapes (soil, water, bottom sediments) in the Moscow region, the Kuban lowplain of the Krasnodar region (Russia) and in the Samarkand oasis (Uzbekistan) for the period 1989–1990. The widespread occurence of PCB compounds requires action for their hygienic control and monitoring. The main chlororganic pollutant found were DDT residues and their content in soils and bottom sediments in all regions under study exceeded in many cases the existing baselines (100 µg/kg). Special attention has been given to the ratios between various metabolites and isomers of chlororganic insecticides as well as between various homologs of PCBs among which tetrachlorobiphenyls were predominant in soils, bottom sediments and surface waters.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00171635
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    Response of snowmelt hydrology to climate change (1996)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00619293
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    The role of humic substances in the aqueous mobilization of mercury from contaminated floodplain soils (1996)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 507-520 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: mercury ; foodplains ; humic substances ; complexation ; speciation ; mobilization ; risk assessment ; water solubility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The water-mobilizability of mercury from contaminated floodplain soils of the river Elbe in Northern Germany was evaluated by batch extraction experiments. It was shown that only a small amount of the total mercury present (about 1% per extraction) can be mobilized by water. This mercury is transported entirely in the form of a complex bound to humic acids (HA); particulates and fulvic acids (FA) did not seem to contribute to the process. It could not be removed from the HA even at pH 1, indicating an extremely strong complexation e.g. by sulfur-containing ligands. Furthermore, the influence of pH on the mobilization was investigated. It was found that in the range of natural pH-values, there was no observable effect of pH on the mobilization of either mercury or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). This surprising finding is explained by an unexpectedly high buffering capacity of the humics, both in the acidic and in the alkaline region. Only at extreme pH-values there was deviation from this behaviour. In contrast to other heavy metals, the amount of mobilized mercury decreases at pH 〈 3; and at pH 〉 12, an increased mobilization of mercury was observed because the humics are mobilized completely, accompanied by the total amount of mercury bound to them.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00282665
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    Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada's boreal forest: Some plausible scenarios (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182854
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    Disembodied and Disembedded? The Social and Economic Implications of Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005857501171
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    Forest-Climate Interactions in the Quetico-Superior Ecotone (Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota) (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005736619158
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    Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Trichloroethylene (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 53 (1998), S. 467-487 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: risk assessment ; chlorinated compound ; environmental ; marine ; exposure ; aquatic toxicity ; monitoring ; trichloroethylene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This risk assessment on trichloroethylene (TRI) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 19 studies for fish, 30 studies for invertebrates and 14 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 150 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.1 µg TRI/l water and a worst case PEC of 3.5 µg TRI/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 40 to 1,500 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern for food chain accumulation is expected.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006066600350
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    Combining mapped and statistical data in forest ecological inventory and monitoring – supplementing an existing system (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 56 (1999), S. 269-291 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: grid approach ; mapping ; monitoring ; National Forests ; purposive sampling ; random sampling ; statistical inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A forest ecological inventory and monitoring system combining information derived from maps and samples is proposed based on ecosystem regions (Bailey, 1994). The system extends the design of the USDA Forest Service Region 6 Inventory and Monitoring System (R6IMS) in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The key uses of the information are briefly discussed and expected results are illustrated with examples. The system is flexible, allowing regions based on ecological considerations to be modified. Sampling intensities that are affordable are likely to be insufficient to provide meaningful estimates for key parameters relating to rare and endangered species, watersheds, and other ecological units. Methods are proposed for collecting additional information in follow-up surveys and combining it with relevant information obtained in R6IMS. Near-continuous information on weather and possible pollution variables recorded by instruments at sampling sites is needed to develop meaningful models to understand what is happening in the ecoregions. R6IMS and the proposed additions constitute a dynamic system which will be modified further as data are analyzed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005984426987
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    Dissolved Oxygen Conditions in Northern Gulf of Mexico Estuaries (1999)
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 57 (1999), S. 1-20 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: dissolved oxygen ; EMAP ; estuary ; Gulf of Mexico ; monitoring
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Because deficient dissolved oxygen (DO) levels may have severe detrimental effects on estuarine and marine life, DO has been widely used as an indicator of ecological conditions by environmental monitoring programs. The U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) monitored DO conditions in the estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico from 1991 to 1994. DO was measured in two ways: 1) instantaneous profiles from the surface to the bottom were taken during the day, and 2) continuous measurements were taken near the bottom at 15 min intervals for at least 12 h. This information was summarized to assess the spatial distribution and severity of DO conditions in these estuaries. Depending on the criteria used to define hypoxia (DO concentrations usually 〈2 mg L-1 or 〈5 mg L-1) and the method by which DO is measured, we estimate that between 5.2 and 29.3% of the total estuarine area in the Louisianian Province was affected by low DO conditions.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005980410752
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    A Comparative Study of Risk Appraisal: A New Look at Risk Assessment in Different Countries (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 59 (1999), S. 225-247 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: cross-cultural ; perceived risk ; risk ; risk analysis ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This study examines perceived risk data from the U.S., China, Japan, and South Korea. These data are then compared with similar results collected from previous studies. Psychometric scaling scores from Burkino Faso (a West African Country), France, Norway, and Hungary have been analyzed and compared with results from our study. The data reveal certain risk events like nuclear weapons, war, and AIDS to have high perceived risks in all countries. These data also show that many of the events have dissimilar perceived risks in different countries. The conclusions also show some countries have higher over all levels of perceive risk (South Korea) while others like the United States display generally lower values.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006163606270
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    On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change (1998)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019050503531
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    The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods (1999)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019035527638
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    Spatial and temporal properties of environmental exposure assessments related to ground water contamination (1999)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 165-178 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: exposure assessment ; ground water contamination ; risk assessment ; spatial variability ; geostatistical analysis ; deterministic modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a new methodology for modeling contaminant transport in ground water for (1) better quantifying the magnitude of exposure in a contaminated aquifer, (2) characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of exposure in a heterogeneous aquifer, and (3) providing more tools for characterizing population exposure. This methodology is also applied to a semi-hypothetical case study.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019095713525
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    Difficulties with the lognormal model in mean estimation and testing (1996)
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    Environmental and ecological statistics 3 (1996), S. 81-97 
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    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: gamma distribution ; left censoring ; product limit estimate ; risk assessment ; truncated normal distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A frequent assumption in environmental risk assessment is that the underlying distribution of an analyte concentration is lognormal. However, the distribution of a random variable whose log has a t-distribution has infinite mean. Because of the proximity of the standard normal and t-distribution, this suggests that a distribution such as the gamma or truncated normal, with smaller right tail probabilities, might make a better statistical model for mean estimation than the lognormal. In order to assess the effect of departures from lognormality on lognormal-based statistics, we simulated complete lognormal, truncated normal, and gamma data for various sample sizes and coefficients of variation. In these cases, departures from lognormality were not easily detected with the Shapiro-Wilk test. Various lognormal-based estimates and tests were compared with alternate methods based on the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The examples were also considered in the presence of random left censoring with the mean and standard error of the product limit estimate replacing the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The results suggest that in the estimation of or tests about a mean, if the assumption of lognormality is at all suspect, then lognormal-based approaches may not be as good as the alternative methods.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00577325
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    Echelon approach to areas of concern in synoptic regional monitoring (1997)
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    Environmental and ecological statistics 4 (1997), S. 131-152 
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    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: biodiversity ; geographic information systems ; geostatistics ; monitoring ; response surfaces ; spatial analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Echelons provide an objective approach to prospecting for areas of potential concern in synoptic regional monitoring of a surface variable. Echelons can be regarded informally as stacked hill forms. The strategy is to identify regions of the surface which are elevated relative to surroundings (Relative ELEVATIONS or RELEVATIONS). These are areas which would continue to expand as islands with receding (virtual) floodwaters. Levels where islands would merge are critical elevations which delimit echelons in the vertical dimension. Families of echelons consist of surface sectors constituting separate islands for deeper waters that merge as water level declines. Pits which would hold water are disregarded in such a progression, but a complementary analysis of pits is obtained using the surface as a virtual mould to cast a counter-surface (bathymetric analysis). An echelon tree is a family tree of echelons with peaks as terminals and the lowest level as root. An echelon tree thus provides a dendrogram representation of surface topology which enables graph theoretic analysis and comparison of surface structures. Echelon top view maps show echelon cover sectors on the base plane. An echelon table summarizes characteristics of echelons as instances or cases of hill form surface structure. Determination of echelons requires only ordinal strength for the surface variable, and is thus appropriate for environmental indices as well as measurements. Since echelons are inherent in a surface rather than perceptual, they provide a basis for computer-intelligent understanding of surfaces. Echelons are given for broad-scale mammalian species richness in Pennsylvania.
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    Line transect sampling of Karner blue butterflies ( Lycaeides melissa samuelis) (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental and ecological statistics 5 (1998), S. 81-91 
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    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: density estimation ; distance sampling ; detection function ; monitoring ; Pollard-Yates
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Line transect sampling is an effective survey method for estimating butterfly densities because it provides unbiased estimates of site-density (provided key assumptions are met), and estimates are comparable among sites. For monitoring Karner blue butterflies in Wisconsin, USA, comparable estimates are required because each year a different selection of sites will be monitored. Annual state-wide indices of species abundance can be derived from the site-surveys and compared to previous year's indices to monitor trends. We advocate that line transect sampling is preferable to Pollard-Yates transects as a survey technique for monitoring Karner blue butter- flies. The Pollard-Yates surveys do not adjust for diferences in site detectability. As a consequence, estimates of among-site from Pollard-Yates surveys can be biased. © Rapid Science 1998
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009620105039
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    Interactions between pesticides; a review of reported effects and their implications for wildlife risk assessment (1996)
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    Ecotoxicology 5 (1996), S. 59-81 
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    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: pesticides ; synergism ; risk assessment ; wildlife
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Reviews of pesticide usage survey data and vertebrate wildlife and honeybee poisoning incident schemes in the UK show that there is considerable potential for wildlife to be exposed to combinations of agricultural pesticides. According to the published literature the toxicity of many pesticide combinations is at least additive. In some cases pesticide mixtures, particularly those involving insecticides, have been shown to be synergistic, with reported increases in toxicity of up to 100-fold. However, these effects are species, time and dose dependent and are therefore difficult to predict routinely. It is suggested that risk assessments should routinely take additive toxicity into account and those based on synergism should be targeted at those mixtures for which a further defined increase in toxicity would result in a high-risk classification. In order to support this risk assessment approach there is a need to develop and validate a standard in vivo test in order to confirm the interaction in those cases where additive or synergistic toxicity results in a high-risk classification.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00119047
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    ED points and NOELs: how they are used by UK pesticide regulators (1996)
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    Ecotoxicology 5 (1996), S. 139-144 
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    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: ED point ; NOEL ; risk assessment ; pesticides
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The availability and use of ED point and NOEL values in ecotoxicological data submitted to the UK Pesticides Safety Directorate is explored. In first tier data normally submitted for pesticide registration, ED points such as EC/LC/LD50s are commonly available from acute laboratory toxicity studies conducted using birds, small mammals, fish, aquatic invertebrates, plants, honeybees and earthworms. These ED points are subsequently used for hazard classification of the pesticide and in toxicity: exposure ratio (TER) calculations required during the acute risk assessment. Although NOELs can often be available from the same first tier data, they are generally not used. However, NOELs commonly available from higher tier chronic toxicity studies such as chronic fish, Daphnia reproduction and avian reproduction studies, are used in TER calculations to assess chronic risk. The statistical limitations of the NOEL are recognized and the regulatory implications of replacing the NOEL with an alternative ED point are discussed.
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    Ethical issues concerning potential global climate change on food production (1992)
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
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    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01966356
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    Monitoring and Assessment of Swainson's Hawks in Argentina Following Restrictions on Monocrotophos Use, 1996–97 (1999)
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 8 (1999), S. 215-224 
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    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: Swainson's hawk ; monocrotophos ; ecotoxicology ; monitoring ; mortality
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Approximately 6,000 dead Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) were discovered in the Pampas of Argentina in 1995–96. Subsequent meetings held between Argentine, US, Canadian, and Swiss personnel led to an agreement whereby chemical companies removed the organophosphate (OP) monocrotophos (MCP) from the area where mortalities had occurred in northern La Pampa province. We monitored hawks in the MCP exclusion zone from 28 November 1996 through 25 January 1997. We sampled 133 hawks for exposure to anti-cholinesterase insecticides, 131 of which showed no apparent signs of adverse effects. Two hawks had inhibited ChE that recovered over time. Feather and footwash samples from captured birds were tested for OP residues. One feather sample was positive for dimethoate; no footwash sample was positive for any of the OPs screened. Cholinesterase (ChE) activities from hawks in Argentina were (mean±SE, n=131) 0.674±0.014 total ChE, 0.236±0.006 acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and 0.438±0.013 butyrylcholinesterase (BChE). Mean plasma AChE from Argentine hawks was significantly depressed below North American reference values. Total ChE and BChE activities were not significantly different. Mortality due to OP poisoning was not found in the MCP exclusion zone in northern La Pampa, though it continued outside of the zone where MCP was used, both legally and illegally. Education campaigns and extension efforts, emphasizing the local MCP restrictions, were effective in controlling Swainson's hawk mortalities in the study area where substantial mortality occurred the previous two years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026448415467
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    Electronic Resource
    Hazard/Risk Assessment of Pyridaben: I. Aquatic Toxicity and Environmental Chemistry (2000)
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 9 (2000), S. 157-168 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: pyridaben ; water-effect ratio ; WER ; FIFRA ; hazard assessment ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The toxicity and environmental fate of the insecticide-miticide, pyridaben were investigated using both standardized laboratory procedures and outdoor studies with natural water. Outdoor studies provide a more realistic exposure scenario to aquatic organisms and any toxicity is a response to actual exposure concentrations resulting from the natural degradation and dissipation of the chemical. This paper describes the environmental chemistry/fate and aquatic toxicity of pyridaben. The subsequent paper describes the results of the outdoor aquatic toxicity studies and the use of the water-effect ratio in hazard/risk assessment. Environmental fate studies indicate that pyridaben has a low water solubility and high Kd and Koc values, which favors partitioning from water onto soil and sediment. Pyridaben is stable to hydrolysis but has a short photolysis half-life in water (〈30 min) and soil (∼11 d). Furthermore, pyridaben has a short half-life in soil (12 to 14 d) when applied in the field to citrus crops. Laboratory studies with constant 48- to 96-h exposures to pyridaben show it is acutely toxic to fish (Lepomis macrochirus, Pimephales promelas, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Cyprinodon variegatus) and invertebrates (Daphnia magna, Mysidopsis bahia). Invertebrates are more sensitive (lower LC50s) than fish to pyridaben, and most mortalities occur 〈24 h for fish and 〈72 h for invertebrates. Chronic laboratory studies indicate that the MATCs for pyridaben and D. magna, M. bahia and P. promelas were 0.12, 0.15 and 0.39 μg/L, respectively. Acute-to-chronic ratios for pyridaben are low for fish and invertebrates, indicating a low potential for residual activity. Chronic toxicity to aquatic organisms is not an issue after application in the field because exposures tend to be brief.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008934502348
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