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  • Articles  (207)
  • climate change  (133)
  • air pollution  (75)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (204)
  • Economics  (23)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Low-energy electron accelerators for industrial radiation processing
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Radiation Physics and Chemistry 42 (1993), S. 525-529 
    Details
    ISSN: 0969-806X
    Keywords: Electron accelerators ; air pollution ; curing ; radiation processing ; trichloroethylene
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0969-806X(93)90302-B
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global climate change in the instrumental period
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90019-1
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The response of spruce shoot aphid Cinara pilicornis hartig to ambient and filtered air at two elevations and pollution climates
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 86 (1994), S. 233-238 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Alps ; Norway spruce ; air pollution ; ozone
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90195-3
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate and some cause-oriented proposals for sufficiently reducing this share
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90027-2
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90026-4
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90038-8
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Iron content and its relations to the sulphur and titanium contents of epiphytic and terricolous lichens and pine bark in Finland
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 84 (1994), S. 131-138 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: air pollution ; bioindicators ; element ratios ; geochemical relations ; heavy metals
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90095-7
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The carbon budget of Canadian forests: A sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90022-1
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change and human history. Some indications from Europe, ad 400-1400
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90020-5
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Chronic ozone exposure increases the susceptibility of hybrid Populus to disease caused by Septoria Musiva
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 86 (1994), S. 109-114 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: air pollution ; canker ; disease ; ozone ; plant
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90012-4
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90039-6
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Food Policy 19 (1994), S. 165-191 
    Details
    ISSN: 0306-9192
    Keywords: Southern Africa ; climate change ; drought
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0306-9192(94)90068-X
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Methods for Detecting and Estimating Population Threshold Concentrations for Air Pollution–Related Mortality with Exposure Measurement Error (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 487-496 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Threshold ; measurement error ; mortality ; air pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration–response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007008914354
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 461-471 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007004813446
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Applied general equilibrium modeling for environmental policy analysis (1994)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 54 (1994), S. 129-142 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: General equilibrium modeling ; taxation ; air pollution ; JEL C67 ; E17 ; H21 ; Q25
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Incorporating environmental regulation and its impact in general equilibrium models has by now a twenty years long tradition. In 1970, Leontief extended his input-output approach to quantify environmental repercussions on the economic structure. The shortcomings of this model, such as fixed coefficients in technological processes or zero price and income elasticities of demand, can be resolved by using a quantitative general equilibrium model. The objective of this paper is to employ such a model to quantify the economic effects of environmental policy and to present a cost-effectiveness analysis of different market instruments in environmental policy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02031731
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Biotechniques for air pollution control (1993)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 4 (1993), S. 283-301 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: air pollution ; biofiltration ; bioremediation ; bioscrubbing ; off-gas treatment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract This paper gives an overview of present biological techniques for the treatment of off-gases and the techniques that are being developed at the moment. The characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, costs and application area are discussed and compared. Biological off-gas treatment is based on the absorption of volatile contaminants in an aqueous phase or biofilm followed by oxidation by the action of microorganisms. Biofilters, bioscrubbers and biotrickling filters are used for elimination of odour and bioconvertable volatile organic and inorganic compounds and are enjoying increasing popularity. This popularity is a result of the low investment and operational costs involved compared to physico-chemical techniques and the elimination efficiencies that can be obtained. The operational envelop is still extending to higher concentrations and gas flow rates (exceeding 200,000 m3 h−1) and a broader spectrum of degradable compounds. Research and development on the use of membranes and the addition of activated carbon or a second liquid phase to the biological systems may lead to a more efficient elimination of hydrophobic compounds and buffering of fluctuating loads. Shorter adaptation periods can be obtained by inoculation with specialized microorganisms. Improved design and operation are made possible by the growing insights in the kinetics and microbiology and supported by the development of models describing biological off-gas treatment. In conclusion, biotechniques are efficient and cost effective in treating off-gases with concentrations of biodegradable contaminants up to 1–5 g/m3. They could play a justified and important role in air pollution control in the coming years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00695975
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Effects of forest fire and drought on acidity of a base-poor boreal forest stream: similarities between climatic warming and acidic precipitation (1992)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (1992), S. 191-204 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00004041
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Deposition gradients and foliar and soil leachate concentrations of air pollutants in Scots pine stands of S.-E. Finland and the Karelian Isthmus, N.-W. Russia (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1263-1268 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollution ; sulphur ; nitrogen ; base cations ; throughfall ; Scots pine ; needle elements ; soil leachate ; N.-W. Russia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Bulk precipitation and throughfall analyses in 50–100-year-old Scots pine stands revealed decreasing sulphur, nitrogen, calcium and magnesium deposition gradients, which extend from the St. Petersburg-Leningrad region and N.-E. Estonia to S.-E. Finland. The Ca and Mg deposition alleviate the acidifying effect of sulphur and nitrogen. The Scots pine canopies acted as a sink for ammonium and nitrate, while the canopy interactions increased sulphur, calcium and magnesium content in throughfall. Foliar S, N and Ca concentrations correlated positively with the corresponding deposition loads. In contrast, low foliar magnesium concentrations were detected in the vicinity of St. Petersburg. The results indicate that the sulphur and calcium deposition may have increased soil leachate S and Ca concentrations in the most polluted Scots pine stands.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477155
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions, acid deposition and climate change (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477200
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  • 21
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Air Pollution and Sick-leaves (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 16 (2000), S. 31-50 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: air pollution ; logit specification ; PM10 ; work loss days
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract During the last decade an increasing amount of studies have investigatedthe relationship between air pollution and human health effects. In thisstudy we investigate how these effects in turn induce reduced labourproductivity in terms of sick-leaves, which is an important factor inassessment of air pollution costs in urban areas. For this purpose weemploy a logit model along with data on sick-leaves from a large office inOslo and different air pollutants. Our results indicate that sick-leaves aresignificantly associated with particulate matter (PM10), while theassociations with SO2 and NO2, are more ambiguous. We also tryto estimate the induced social costs in terms of lost labour productivity andincreased governmental expenditures, although these estimates are moreuncertain.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008318004154
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  • 22
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    Hedonic models and air pollution: Twenty-five years and counting (1993)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 3 (1993), S. 381-394 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Hedonic models ; air pollution ; meta analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports a meta analysis of how effectively hedonic property models have detected the influence of air pollution on housing prices. Probit estimates are reported describing how data, model specification, and local property market conditions in cities represented in thirty-seven studies influence the ability of hedonic models to uncover negative, statistically significant relationships between housing prices and air pollution measures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00418818
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  • 23
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    The U.S. allowance trading system for sulfur dioxide: An update on market experience (1995)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 5 (1995), S. 115-129 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Emission trading ; United States ; sulfur dioxide ; air pollution ; costs ; cost-effectiveness
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In 1990, the U.S. Congress passed legislation that amended the Clean Air Act to create a new program to mitigate the effects of acid deposition in the U.S. through emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at electric utility plants across the country. The SO2 reductions, totalling a 40% reduction nationally from 1980 levels or a 10 million ton reduction annually, are achieved largely through an emission trading system, the largest program of its kind designed to date. This trading system has the potential to save up to half of the compliance costs associated with more traditional source-by-source emission limit programs. This paper briefly discusses background on the acid rain issue in the United States, and the principal features of the program, including: a permanent cap on utility emissions of SO2 beginning in 2010, decision to grant up-front allocation of emission credits to reduce individual approvals of trades, the use of continuous emission monitors and automatic penalties to ensure compliance, and integration of the Acid Rain program requirements with other Clean Air Act programs. The paper also discusses the development of the allowance trading market to date, including the types of compliance options chosen and quantity and type of emissions trading being conducted.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00693019
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  • 24
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    Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026409105660
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  • 25
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    Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02441399
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  • 26
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    Emission trading in Europe with an exchange rate (1994)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 4 (1994), S. 305-330 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Emission trading ; air pollution ; economic instruments ; costs ; europe ; sulfur
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper explores the analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although total abatement costs are always reduced. A routine was developed to mimic trading as a bilateral, sequential process, subject to an exchange rate. In the example used, results for SO2 emissions in Europe show that, starting from a uniform reduction, exchange-rate trading achieves higher cost savings than one-to-one trading, without achieving the cost minimum. Sulfur deposition targets are not violated since the initial emission allocation overfulfilled targets at many places. The results are sensitive to: pre-trade emission levels, the transaction costs, the availability of information on potential cost savings and assumptions made on the behavior of trading partners.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00692228
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    Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019167412598
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    Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00357360
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    Ordering effects in contingent valuation surveys (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 485-499 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: contingent valuation ; ordering effects ; air pollution ; health damage
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper focuses on ordering effects in CVM surveys; how the expressed value of a particular good valued in a sequence of several goods depends on where in the sequence the good is valued. We use data from a Norwegian CVM survey focusing on WTP for a 50% reduction in air pollution from car traffic to test for the existence of ordering effects and to apply a test for internal consistency. We found considerable and significant ordering effects in our data, but were not able to reject the hypothesis of internal consistency. Based on our survey, we argue that ordering effects may be a result of rational choice. These effects are problematic if a sequential valuation procedure is applied to a simultaneous problem, and/or the respondents are given imperfect information about the decision problem.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00357416
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    Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 267-280 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018927120883
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    Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise? (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 301-306 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018908027243
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    Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018912114948
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    Factor biases and promoting sustainable development: Adaptation to drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00455057
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    Adapting to Climate Change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004663.31074.64
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    Adapting to climate change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437055
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    An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027386.34214.60
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    Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere (1994)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    Effects of ambient air pollution on wheat and rice yield in Pakistan (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1311-1316 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Pakistan ; air pollution ; ozone ; nitrogen dioxide ; rice ; wheat ; filtration ; yield
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Open-top chambers ventilated with ambient or chiarcoal-filtered air were used to assess the impact of air pollution on the yield of local cultivars of wheat and rice, at a site on the outskirts of Lahore. At this location, 6-h mean O3 concentrations reach 60 ppb in certain months, and annual mean NO2 concentrations are 20–25 ppb. The experiments showed significant yield reduction in two successive seasons which ranged from 33% to 46% in wheat and from 37% to 51% in rice. The major yield parameter affected was the number of ears or panicles per plant, although there was also evidence of small effects on 1000 grain weight and on the number of grains per ear/panicle. These results have significance in terms of the maintenance of agricultural yields as pollution emissions rise in south and south-east Asia.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477163
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    Assessment of the use of principal components analysis to relate air and precipitation chemistry to climate (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    Ecological studies in the ratanica catchment (Carpathian foothills, S Poland) — An overview (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1635-1640 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: forested catchment ; air pollution ; nutrients ; pollutants ; balance ; plant bioindicators ; forest damage
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper includes an overview of ecological studies conducted since 1986 in the Ratanica pine-beech forested catchment located in the polluted, high populated southern part of Poland. General characteristics of the catchment (including soil and vegetation, air pollution, input/output of nutrients and pollutants, element budget data and forest health assessment) are presented. Based on biogeochemical and bioindication results, the Ratanica catchment has been classified as a moderately to heavily deteriorated area. Predictions for this forested catchment for various deposition of anthropogenic pollutants, are also disscused.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477214
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 37-78 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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    Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 79-131 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    Forest health monitoring in Canada: How healthy is the boreal forest? (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 77-85 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: boreal forests ; forest health ; air pollution ; detection
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The Canadian boreal forest covers 299.2 Mha which is two-thirds of Canada's forest and runs in a continuous belt from Newfoundland north and west to the Yukon. The major species are spruce, pines, balsam fir, white birch and trembling aspen often occurring in extensive monocultures. Wildfire is the driving successional force in the boreal forest and has remained so despite fire suppression activities and extensive harvesting. Insects and diseases also cause extensive damage. In order to ensure the sustainability of forests, it is necessary for the forest manager to know the condition of the health of these forests. The CFS established in 1984 the Acid Rain National Early Warning System in order to monitor the health of the forests. National results show that mortality is generally in the normal range of 1–3% and is caused by known stresses; insects, diseases and abiotic damage. No signs of pollution damage have been yet been detected in boreal forests by the system. An early warning system to detect and monitor conditions remains an essential part of our commitment to the sustainability of Canada's forests.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182821
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    Estimate of health impacts of acidifying air pollutants and tropospheric ozone in Europe (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 167-176 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollution ; health effects ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Based on combined information available from air quality monitoring data and long-range transport models, European population exposure to SO2, NO2 and O3 has been estimated. This information has been combined with the results of epidemiological studies assessing strength of association between the exposure and health effects to estimate an impact of the pollution on health in Europe. The analysis indicates that a considerable number of health problems, ranging from mild irritation of the respiratory system to increased mortality, can be attributed to short-term peaks of pollution observed in Europe. Chronic impacts of prolonged elevated SO2 levels on lung function are estimated to occur in close to10 million people in Europe.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00483698
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    Health effects of acid aerosols (1995)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 177-188 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: health ; air pollution ; acidity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Earlier in this century, a number of severe episodes clearly demonstrated that air pollution can affect human health; these included documented increases in mortality and morbidity. Although health was clearly affected during these episodes and acidity is a candidate for the responsible agent, it has been difficult to ascertain which agents were involved. In the past several years extensive research was launched to learn the significance of acidic aerosols on human health. The question of a health threat from acid aerosols was first raised by epidemiology studies, but results of the body of epidemiological evidence collected to date have been mixed. Even when a study finds evidence of a response to exposures involving high ambient acidity levels, it is usually difficult to know which agent or agents are responsible for causing the effects noted. High levels of acidic aerosols are nearly always accompanied by high levels of other air pollutants which may have known or suspected effects on the respiratory tract. For this reason, an understanding of the potential mechanisms of acid aerosol health effects needs supporting evidence from the laboratory, where exposures to various agents can be controlled. To date, this supporting evidence includes demonstration of physiological responses at acidity levels greater than those that exist in the ambient environment. A limited number of studies have considered responses at levels more characteristic of ambient exposures; these studies demonstrate little physiological response, probably due to the airways' ability to buffer acidity at low concentration. Although there is some evidence of impaired mucociliary clearance and modest changes in lung function, there is no evidence of airway inflammation or altered non-specific bronchial responsiveness as a result of acid aerosol exposure. The possibility that acid aerosols may potentiate responses to other pollutants remains a subject of interest. The potential existence of a group of individuals who are exquisitely sensitive to low acid concentrations requires further investigation. Recent epidemiology results are broadening the perspective from a focus on acidity per se to a focus on fine particulate matter, of which particulate acidity is but a subset. These studies find a consistent statistical association between various health responses, including mortality, and ambient measures of particulates, even at locations where levels of acidity are very low and at locations where current U.S. air quality standards are satisfied. There is at present no biological explanation for these associations.
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    Response of a white clover indicator system to tropospheric ozone at eight locations in the United States (1995)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1373-1378 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: tropospheric ozone ; white clover ; air pollution ; biomonitor
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A white clover (Trifolium repens L.) system using measured biomass to indicate effective concentrations of tropospheric ozone (O3) has been developed. The system utilizes the relative response of an O3-sensitive clone (NC-S) and an O3-resistant clone (NC-R) grown in 15-liter pots. Forage (leaves, stems and flowers) is cut, dried, and weighed at 28-day intervals. Forage dry weight ratios (NC-S/NC-R) for individual or multiple harvests indicate O3 concentrations during growth. In, 3 years of testing in open-top field chambers at Raleigh, North Carolina, O3 always decreased growth of NC-S more than that of NC-R and the NC-S/NC-R ratio routinely decreased as the O3 concentration increased. A national field test was performed in 1993 and 1994 to determine if the clover system can account for effects of climatic variables on clover growth per-se, and if climatic variables affect the relative response of the two clones to O3. Eight locations (Corvallis, Oregon; Kennedy Space Center, Florida; Delaware, Ohio; Amherst, Massachusetts; Blacksburg, Virginia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Riverside, California; San Bemardino mountains, California) provided large differences in O3 concentrations and climate. The NC-S/NC-R forage ratios for three consecutive 28-day growth periods for each year as related to the mean 12 hour per day O3 concentrations are presented in this manuscript. Ratios were generally highest where mean O3 concentrations were lowest (Oregon and Florida), lowest where mean O3 concentrations were highest (both California locations), and intermediate at other locations.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477173
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    Response of snowmelt hydrology to climate change (1996)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00619293
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    Sulphur and heavy metal concentrations in Scots pine bark in northern Finland and the Kola peninsula (1997)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 93 (1997), S. 395-408 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollution ; pine bark ; sulphur ; pH ; conductivity ; heavy metals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Sulphur and heavy metal deposition in northern Finland (= in Lapland) and the Kola Peninsula were surveyed using Scots pine bark samples. Sulphur concentrations in bark close to the Kola smelters were on an average twice as high as on the Finnish side of the border. The Cu and Ni concentrations near the smelters were almost 100-fold the mean values in northern Finland. There was a marked decrease in the sulphur and heavy metal concentrations with increasing distance from the emission sources. The effects of emission from the Kola Peninsula were evident in Finland only close to the border, especially in the eastern parts of Inari (NE corner of Lapland) where the Cu and Ni concentrations were 2- to 6-fold those in western Lapland. The sulphur and heavy metal concentrations in most of northern Finland were low. However were the concentrations of Cr in bark in the SW corner of Lapland considerably high, due to the emissions from the Tornio refined steel plants.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02404769
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    Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada's boreal forest: Some plausible scenarios (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    Integration of Remote Sensed and In-situ Data in an Analysis of the Air Pollution Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Border Areas between Norway and Russia (1998)
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 51-85 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: air pollution ; GIS ; lichens ; remote sensing ; SO2 ; terrestrial ecosystems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Transboundary air pollution from industries in Nikel and Zapolyarnij has caused severe damage to the environment in Southern-Varanger in Norway and in Pechenga municipality in Russia. The work presented in this paper focuses on the integration of in-situ air pollution data with remote sensing based land cover maps. Land cover maps have been utilised to detect changes in the major land cover types within the area. The major change in the environment was the decrease of the sensitive lichen-dominated land cover types, and the increase of bilberry-dominated land cover types and finally the increase of the land cover types with the greatest air pollution stress (industrial barren, barren, and partly damaged vegetation, defoliated forests, lichen removal). A GIS based method for assessing the relationship of the remotely sensed land cover maps with the environmental condition parameters was developed and applied. By comparing the results from this analysis we observed that the land cover types with the greatest stress had the largest concentrations of SO2 in the ground air layer, while the land cover types with minor damage (the remaining lichen-dominated vegetation) had rather low concentrations of sulphur dioxide in the ground air layer. The area of the land cover types with the greatest stress (industrial barren, barren and partly damaged vegetation) has increased in the period 1973–1988, and the degradation is carried out in a such manner that sensitive mountain and lichen vegetation formations have been transformed into a more barren-like environment. The increase in the emissions has also transferred the natural barrens which also consisted of some sparse vegetation into a complete barren with little vegetation left. Also the epilitic lichens and mosses on bare rocks and stones were also removed by the high concentrations of SO2. The land cover types with minor damage (with the remaining lichen-dominated vegetation) had rather low concentrations of the contaminants (SO2, Ni and S), while the partly damaged and damaged land cover types had the highest concentrations of the contaminants. An exception was the Ni and S concentrations found in class 11 Industrial barrens which were lower than expected. Associations between the degradation and the SO2 concentration in the air were also documented. The conclusion from this analysis is that the in-situ data support the observations of damaged vegetation and industrial barrens imaged by the Landsat satellites, especially in the surroundings of Nikel and Zapolyarnij.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005755706302
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    Disembodied and Disembedded? The Social and Economic Implications of Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity (1998)
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    Forest-Climate Interactions in the Quetico-Superior Ecotone (Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota) (1998)
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005736619158
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    Implications of Atmospheric Change for Biodiversity of Aquatic Ecosystems in Canada (1998)
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 271-280 
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    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: air pollution ; atmospheric change ; atmospheric stressors ; biodiversity ; ecosystem risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Overall, the greatest threats to Canadian and global biodiversity are associated with conversions of natural ecosystems to anthropogenic ones, and over-exploitation of biological resources. This circumstance does not, however, trivialize the importance of atmospheric influences. Although scientific understanding of the risks is incomplete, it is nevertheless clear that anthropogenic changes in atmospheric stressors are potentially damaging to biodiversity and other ecological values over medium- and longer-term scales. It is important that greater investments be made in support of longer-term monitoring and research designed to understand the effects of atmospheric and other environmental stressors on the biodiversity and structure and function of Canadian ecosystems.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005851027038
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    On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change (1998)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019050503531
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    The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods (1999)
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
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    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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    Multivariate imputation in cross-sectional analysis of health effects associated with air pollution (1995)
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    Environmental and ecological statistics 2 (1995), S. 191-212 
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    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: multivariate interpolation ; kriging ; respiratory morbidity ; air pollution ; sulphates ; nitrates ; ozone ; Ontario Health Study ; environmental monitoring
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We demonstrate a recently developed spatial interpolation methodology in a study of the chronic effects of air pollution on respiratory morbidity. Our study uses data from the Ontario Health Study, a large survey of households in Ontario conducted for the province by Statistics Canada. The interpolation procedure imputes unobserved vectors of air pollution concentrations for individual Public Health Units, from those observed at a few fixed air pollution monitoring sites. We use logistic regression methods to assess the significance of air pollution levels based on the imputed values after modelling the relationship between binary health responses and assorted covariates such as measures of life style. Our findings prove negative; no significant relationship between chronic respiratory morbidity and air pollution is found. The imputation methodology is seen to be promising and might well be used in other such analyses.
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    Ethical issues concerning potential global climate change on food production (1992)
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
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    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Quantifying urban forest structure, function, and value: the Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project (1997)
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    Urban ecosystems 1 (1997), S. 49-61 
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    ISSN: 1573-1642
    Keywords: urban forests ; urban ecology ; urban climate ; hydroclimate ; air pollution ; energy conservation ; carbon removal ; benefit-cost analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper is a review of research in Chicago that linked analyses of vegetation structure with forest functions and values. During 1991, the regions trees removed an estimated 5575 metric tons of air pollutants, providing air cleansing worth 9.2 million. Each year they sequester an estimated 315 800 metric tons of carbon. Increasing tree cover 10% or planting about three trees per building lot saves annual heating and cooling costs by an estimated 50 to 90 per dwelling unit because of increased shade, lower summertime air temperatures, and reduced neighborhood wind speeds once the trees mature. The net present value of the services trees provide is estimated as 402 per planted tree. The present value of long-term benefits is more than twice the present value of costs.
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    The double dividend and the role of inequality aversion and macroeconomic regimes (1995)
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    International tax and public finance 2 (1995), S. 207-219 
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    ISSN: 1573-6970
    Keywords: tax reform ; general equilibrium ; environment ; double dividend ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The introduction of the European Community's carbon-energy tax in a small open economy is analyzed by comparing two kinds of revenue recycling. We use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with different regimes for the labor market, several income groups, and a crude valuation of environmental benefits. This allows for a more comprehensive empirical test of the double-dividend hypothesis, including equity aspects. It is shown that the weak double-dividend hypothesis can fail when equity aspects are taken into account.
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    Climate Change and the Representative Agent (2000)
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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    Are Optimal CO2 Emissions Really Optimal? (1998)
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
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    Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries (1998)
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    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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    Air Pollution and ‘Dirty’ Industries: How and Why Does the Composition of Manufacturing Output Change with Economic Development? (2000)
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 109-123 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: economic development ; industrial composition ; pollution havens ; air pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper examines the impact on air pollution ofchanges in the composition of manufacturing output indeveloped and developing countries. Pollutionemissions from manufacturing output are estimated ina manner which holds constant the effect of technologyand regulations allowing the impact of compositional changes alone on pollution to beestimated. The paper has three main findings; (1) theinverted-U estimated between per capita income and thepollution intensity of GDP arises due to both thecomposition of manufacturing becoming cleaner and theshare of manufacturing output in GDP falling.Compositional changes alone are not responsible forthe inverted-U between per capita income and percapita emissions; (2) changes to the composition ofmanufacturing output are consistent with the pollutionhaven hypothesis, however there is clear evidence thatrising per capita incomes are associated with afalling income elasticity of demand for `dirty'products. This fact may explain the compositionalchanges that occur with development; (3) in additionto the income elasticity effect, the analysis suggeststhat land prices and to a lesser extent the prices oflabour and capital, determine the proportion of dirtyindustry within a country's manufacturing sector.
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    Climate change, urban air problems and transport policy in the European Union (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 145-156 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: transport ; air pollution ; greenhouse gasses ; externalities ; fuel efficiency of cars ; cost-effectiveness
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper surveys some recent studies on conventional air pollution and climate change in the transport sector in Europe. Fuel efficiency standards, car emission standards and transport pricing instruments are analysed from an economic perspective taking into account environmental and economic efficiency objectives.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019127731254
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    Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture (2000)
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 331-338 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018940901744
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    Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals (2000)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008326515058
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    Intergenerational equity and discounting (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019123630345
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    Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies in Mitigating the Greenhouse Impact of Waste Management in Three Communities of Different Size (1998)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004664.56143.cd
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    Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact of waste management in three communities of different size (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437050
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    Future Trends of Land-Use Emissions of Major Greenhouse Gases (1998)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009666823407
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    Factors Affecting Future Emissions of Methane from Non Land Use Sources (1998)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009602301059
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    World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios (1998)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009637812445
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    Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century (1998)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009674820623
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    Climate Change and Local Pollution Effects – An Integrated Approach (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009693719474
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    Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy? (1999)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009609716388
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    An evaluation of adaptation options for climate change impacts on agriculture in Kazakhstan (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009626526883
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    Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 137-165 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; decision-making ; variability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.
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    The Science of Adaptation: A Framework for Assessment (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 199-213 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; impact assessment ; response options ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009652531101
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    Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 227-237 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; climate variability ; data ; climate applications ; El Niño ; UNFCCC
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009668902876
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    Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied? (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 239-252 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; coastal zones ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; IPCC Technical Guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009681207419
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    Catastrophes and Climate Change: Concerns and Possible Countermeasures of the Insurance Industry (1999)
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 283-293 
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    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: natural catastrophes ; climate change ; changing extremes ; costs of climate ; change ; insurance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In the last few decades, the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions, which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves, on the other hand, are showing a change for the worse as many atmospheric extremes are strongly influenced by global warming. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing, capacity and loss reserves, the assessment of insured liabilities, preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The changing probability distributions of many processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, tornados, hailstorms, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance, apart from the consequences of the stratospheric ozone destruction for health and life insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed, as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009663605118
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    Disaster Loss Mitigation as an Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (1999)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 295-306 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: disasters ; storms ; floods ; droughts ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for geological disasters. Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from greenhouse gases? Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The task is only begun.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009615721957
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    Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt (1999)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 343-361 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; socioeconomic impacts ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009684210570
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    Desertification, and climate change: the case for greater convergence (2000)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026537621437
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  • 87
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    Migration caused by climate change: how vulnerable are people inn dryland areas? (2000)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026570529614
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  • 88
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    Greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland based on international guidelines (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00625615
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  • 89
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    Climate science and climate policy: Improving the science/policy interface (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00625616
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  • 90
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027540.98192.40
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  • 91
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Land Use Change and Forestry in Finland Based on International Guidelines (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027539.66049.3f
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  • 92
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Central and Northern Greece: A Simulation Study with Ceres-Maize (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018044.48957.28
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  • 93
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    Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027382.26287.8c
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  • 94
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    Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agrigulture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018269.58736.82
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  • 95
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    Electronic Resource
    Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018139.42373.f1
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  • 96
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    Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000018270.16497.39
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  • 97
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    Electronic Resource
    Impacts of global climate change on Mediterranean agrigulture: Current methodologies and future directions (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517804
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  • 98
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    Electronic Resource
    Impact of climate change on possible scenarios for Egyptian agriculture in the future (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517805
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modelling crop-climate interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and adaptation of different agricultural systems to climate change (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517807
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  • 100
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: A simulation study with CERES-Maize (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00517806
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