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  • Articles  (228)
  • climate change  (132)
  • acidification  (98)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (227)
  • Technology  (1)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-11-01
    Description: The potential harms associated with global climate change demand an urgent response. But at the same time, the nature and extent of both the problem and our proper response to it are continually contested, within the academic community and wider society. What should be the ethical import of this disagreement? In this paper I set out John Rawls' theory of reasonable disagreement as a way of analysing such contestation. On Rawls' account, reasonable disagreement is founded in diversity rather than straightforward error. I argue that many aspects of the scientific and ethical debate on climate change can be usefully viewed from within such a perspective. This raises, I suggest, serious problems for deciding what the human response to global warming must be. Lastly, I survey two responses which might be thought to cope with such pervasive disagreement. Neither, however, is clearly effective. In my conclusion I suggest that reasonable disagreement might be tackled best in a model of deliberative democracy. Such a model, however, does not generate easy answers to the problems of climate change.
    Keywords: climate change ; reasonable disagreement ; political liberalism ; justice ; environmental ethics
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: This article is a response to Marion Hourdequin, 'Climate, Collective Action and Individual Ethical Obligations', Environmental Values 19 (2010): 443-464. As Hourdequin argues, we have an obligation to reduce our individual emissions of greenhouse gases. This obligation is not, however, to reduce to the level that would be sustainable if everyone else did likewise. We are obligated to make limited reductions in the service of our primary obligation to organise and embrace collective schemes to ensure that everyone reduces emissions and that benefits to the environment are proportionate to the sacrifices made. She and I can agree on the existence of an obligation if she recognises that there is a fundamental difference between the obligations we have to avoid individually harmful actions and our obligations in a tragedy of the commons.
    Keywords: ethics ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; obligations ; collective action ; virtue ; greenhouse gases
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: The conflicts permeating the environmental debate since the 1960s have mainly involved two actors: multinational companies and international environmental organizations (ENGOs). Today, there are signs that the antagonism is ending with regards to co-operation and strategy. We argue that this convergence is no longer limited to specific joint projects, but is also prevalent at the idea and policy levels. Both actors have begun describing problems in similar terms, articulating the same goals and recommending the same solutions. Such convergence offers advantages in efforts to counteract climate change but also some problems: declining citizen trust in ENGOs, risk of intellectually impoverished environmental and energy debates, and loss of alternate visions and values.
    Keywords: ENGO ; BINGO ; oil industry ; climate change ; organisational environmental discourse
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: Can unilateral action be an effective response to global climate change? Baylor Johnson worries that a focus on unilateral action by individuals will detract from efforts to secure collective agreements to address the problem. Although Johnson and I agree that individuals have some obligation to reduce their personal emissions, we differ in the degree to which we see personal reductions as effective in spurring broader change. I argue that 'unilateral reductions' can have communicative value and that they can change the structure of collective action problems, making such problems easier to solve. Since collective action problems are much less tractable where individuals abide by the tenets of traditional game theory and much more tractable where individuals are oriented to cooperate and to trust that others will reciprocate, we need moral norms that promote individual restraint in exploitation of the commons, and we ought ourselves to abide by those norms.
    Keywords: collective action ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; moral obligation ; unilateral action
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 5
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 6
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 7
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 8
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 9
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 10
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 11
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 12
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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  • 14
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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  • 15
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 677-682 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: soils ; acidification ; ancient woodland ; nitrogen ; environmental change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This study outlines the results of analysis of soil samples collected from fixed quadrats located in a regular pattern across Wytham Wood. Oxfordshire, England. The site contains plots of mixed deciduous ancient woodland and more recent plantations. A previous soil study was undertaken in 1974 and samples archived. Soils were resampled in 1991 and some re-analysis of the 1974 samples was undertaken. Soils were of a wide range in types from sands to gravels with a pH range of 3.0–7.0. Results showed some decline in pH in lower horizons, but most striking was a large increase in soil nitrogen for all horizons and soil types.
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  • 16
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 797-803 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; recovery ; copper ; nickel ; lake ; rate ; alkalinity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the recovery pathways of two lakes situated near the Coniston nickel-copper smelter. These lakes were exposed to very intense airborne pollution, including SO2, H2SO4, Ni and Cu, during the 60 year operation of the smelter. After the closure of the Coniston smelter in 1972 and the subsequent improvement in air quality, the water quality in both lakes began to improve. Despite their proximity and exposure to similar inputs, the lakes differed both in the rate and magnitude of recovery. This study demonstrates the capacity of lakes to recover from chemical stresses over a very short period. Changes in Cu and Ni concentration could be predicted, while changes in pH, measured as H+, could not. The reasons for this discrepancy as well as the processes and lake parameters that control chemical recovery are discussed.
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  • 17
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 889-894 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; acid neutralizing capacity ; calcite ; fish ; liming ; mitigation ; ecosystems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The Experimental Watershed Liming Study (EWLS) evaluated the application of CaCO3, to a forested watershed to mitigate the acidification of surface water. During October 1989, 6.9 Mg CaCC3/ha was applied by helicopter to two subcatchments of about 50% (102.5 ha) of the Woods Lake watershed area. The EWLS team investigated the response to treatment of soils (chemistry and microbial processes), vegetation, wetland, stream and lake waters, and phytoplankton and fish, and applied the Integrated Lake Watershed Acidification (ILWAS) model in predicting a watershed treatment duration of up to 50 years. Observations showed a gradual change in pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and Ca2+ in the water column; direct lake additions of CaCO3 (three different times) were characterized by abrupt changes following base addition and subsequent rapid reacidification. Moreover, the watershed treatment eliminated the snowmelt acidification of the near-shore region of the lake observed during direct lake treatments. Positive ANC water in the tributary and near-shore area improved conditions for fish reproduction and for a viable fish population. Budgets for 12-month periods before and after the watershed treatment showed that the lake shifted from a source of ANC to a sink due to retention of elevated inputs of Ca2+ from the watershed CaCO3 application.
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  • 18
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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  • 19
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 20
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 21
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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  • 22
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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  • 23
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 24
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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  • 25
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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  • 26
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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  • 27
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 28
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 29
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 30
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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  • 31
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 629-634 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; monitoring ; calibrated catchments ; lakes ; rivers ; ground water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Surface and ground water monitoring in Norway is designed to give a regional coverage with most of the stations in areas with acidification and some stations in unpolluted areas that give background values. Surface water (weekly sampling) and precipitation (daily measurement) are monitored at 6 calibrated catchments, 5 located in southern Norway and 1 in northernmost Norway close to the Russian border. Ground water (weekly sampling) is monitored in 4 reservoirs in Southern Norway. 73 lakes located all over Norway are surveyed each fall. Nineteen rivers in western and southern Norway are monitored by monthly sampling. All sites are considered sensitive to acidification and are chosen to minimise the effects of anthropogenic catchment based impacts. Results from the monitoring over the period 1980–1994 show that there is a reduction of sulphate of about 25–35% in surface waters which is related to a 30–45% reduction in sulphate concentration in precipitation. An improvement in water quality as measured as increase in ANC has only been apparent since 1990. Due to heavy seasalt episodes in the most coastal catchments like Birkenes and the rivers in western Norway, there has been no improvement of ANC since 1980. Deposition of nitrogen has not changed over the last 10 years, and there is no change in the levels of nitrate in the monitored surface waters.
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  • 32
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 943-948 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; liming ; phytoplankton ; zooplankton ; humic lake
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Liming resulted in an immediate and transitory decrease of plankton biomass and phytoplankton primary production in the limed part of an acidified humic lake. In the longer term liming has changed species composition and dominance of phyto- and zooplankton. Due to increased transparency and improved oxygen conditions plankton biomass peaked deeper in the water column after liming. During the three years post-liming period phyto- and zooplankton communities have changed less than reported in several other studies. This is largely because liming was carried out well before the collapse of perch population, which has controlled zooplankton both in the pre- and post-treatment period.
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  • 33
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; Virginia ; fish response
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The “Shenandoah National Park: Fish in Sensitive Habitats” (SNP:FISH) project is a response to declining pH and acid neutralizing capacity in Shenandoah National Park (SNP) streams. SNP receives more atmospheric sulfate than any other USA national park, and pH had decreased to the point where early negative effects on fish were expected. SNP provides the opportunity to study the early stages of acidification effects on fish. Three different classes of geological formations yield streams with low-ANC (0 μEq/L), intermediate-ANC (60–100 μEq/L) or high-ANC (150–200 μEq/L) waters in SNP. This allows a comparison of responses across a water quality gradient in a small geographic area receiving similar deposition. Both chronic and episodic acidification occur in SNP streams. Biological effects are apparent in fish species richness, population density, condition factor, age, size, and bioassay survival. A primary project objective was to provide the necessary data for development and testing models for forecasting changes in fish communities resulting from changes in stream chemistry. Monitored variables include several which are predictive of acidification effects on SNP fish communities.
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  • 34
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 481-486 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: critical loads ; nitrogen deposition ; sulphur deposition ; acidification ; mountain lakes ; Tatra National Park
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract An overall level as well as seasonal changes of acidification of Tatra Mountains surface waters have been studied. Measurements carried out in the Tatra Mountains National Park were concentrated on two lakes: Dlugi Staw and Zielony Staw, situated in the crystalline, granitic part of the mountains. These lakes differ from each other in altitude (1784 m and 1632 m a.s.l. respectively) as well as in quantity and variety of flora and fauna living in and around them. The wet deposition of acidifying compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, and their seasonal variability in the area of the lakes were measured and compared with the critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen for these lakes and their catchments. Results showed that the critical loads of both sulphur and nitrogen in Dlugi Staw were exceeded all over the year and in Zielony Staw the acid deposition was roughly equal to critical load. A surprisingly high concentration of nitrogen compounds in acid deposition, well above the absorption ability of both the lakes and their catchments were ascertained. Nitrogen retention coefficients calculated for the lakes were as follows: Dlugi Staw — approximately 10%, Zielony Staw — approximately 50%. Seasonal variability in nitrate ions concentration in the lakes' waters reflected their prominent acidification caused by nitrogen compounds corresponding to stages 2 and 3 in the scale proposed recently by Stoddard (Stoddard, 1994).
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  • 35
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 493-498 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: remote lakes ; water chemistry ; critical load ; acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Water chemistry data on which all the investigations in the AL:PE 1 (Acidification of Mountain Lakes: Palaeolimnology and Ecology) and AL:PE 2 (Remote Mountain Lakes as Indicators of Air Pollution and Climate Change) projects are based, are available for 28 lakes in U.K. (Scotland), Italy, Norway and France (AL:PE 1) and in Svalbard (Norway), Ireland, Austria, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Russia (AL:PE 2). The results show high sulphate concentrations in some mountain lakes in all the countries. Nitrate and sulphate concentrations have different distribution patterns among the sites. A gradient in acidification from north (Norway) to central Europe (via U.K. to Italy) is identified for the AL:PE lakes by means of multivariate data analysis. Critical loads and their exceedance are calculated, where sufficient information is available, both according to the leaching of S, and of S plus N from the catchment. The pattern of critical load exceedance demonstrates an increasing importance of nitrate from Norway via U.K. to Italy. Leaching of N was of considerable importance to the acidification of lakes in the Italian Alps. The projects receive financial support from the European Union.
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  • 36
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Fish populations ; perch ; roach ; growth ; reproduction ; water chemistry ; acidification ; recover
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acid-induced fish damage in small lakes in southern Finland was studied in a fish status survey of eighty lakes from 1985–1987. Later, twenty of these lakes were selected for further monitoring. A sampling of these lakes from 1988–1989 showed that the decrease in some perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and roach (Rutilus rutilus L.) populations still continued. The results from the same lakes in 1992 showed that successful reproduction had taken place with many of the perch populations that had been close to extinction in 1985. In contrast, no signs of recovery in the roach populations were detected. The explanation for the appearance of new cohorts of perch could have been the decrease in acid deposition but the exceptional hydrological conditions of winters in the early 1990s may also have affected them. The different responses of the perch and roach populations were interpreted as a consequence of the different sensitivity of these two species to acidification. Even a slight improvement in the water quality has resulted in the appearance of strong new year-classes of perch, but not of roach. Therefore, more improvement in water quality is needed until a sensitive species like roach can reproduce again.
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  • 37
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; arable soils ; trace elements (Cd, Ni, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, Al, Se) ; plant uptake ; field study
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Soil pH is one of the main factors influencing the solubility and availability of trace elements in arable soils. Thus pH can affect the trace element contents of agricultural crops and thereby indirectly influence human health. The aim of this study was to determine Cd, Ni, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, Al and Se contents in spring wheat, potatoes and carrots (Cd, Ni and Zn) and estimate their correlations with certain soil factors (surface and subsurface soil pH and organic matter content) governing the plant availability of these elements. Commercial fields were sampled in Sweden in order to cover a wide range of soil types with respect to pH, soil texture and organic matter content. Concentrations of Zn, Mn, Ni (grain) and Cd (straw) in spring wheat (n=43); Cd, Ni, Zn, Mn, Cu and Al in potatoes (n=69); and Cd, Ni and Zn in carrots (n=36) showed significant negative correlations with surface soil pH (0–25 cm). The Se content of potatoes and Cr content of spring wheat straw were positively correlated with soil pH. Stepwise multiple regressions including a combination of soil pHs (0–25 and 25–50 cm) and organic matter contents (0–25 cm) showed that the organic matter content as well as the surface and subsurface soil pH significantly influenced concentrations of several trace elements in one or more of the studied crops. It was concluded that, if acid deposition together with other acidifying processes (fertilisation, harvest of biomass, etc.) are not balanced by a sufficient amount of liming there might be a decrease in the pH of arable soils, which, in turn will lead to decreased levels of Se in edible crops but an overall increase concentrations of other trace elements.
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  • 38
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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  • 39
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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  • 40
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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  • 41
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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  • 42
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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  • 43
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 153-165 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollutants ; effect on materials ; acidification ; cultural monuments ; sulphur dioxide ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; economic calculations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Damage caused to materials exposed in the atmosphere constitutes one of the most important direct effects of acidifying air pollutants. Systematic field and laboratory investigations performed in the recent decade in many countries have contributed to a considerable increase in the knowledge on the mechanisms of the effects of pollutants, on the quantification of damage and on the assessment of the cost of damage. Beside the very important role of SO2 for several materials also studies of the direct or synergistic effect of NOx and O3 have contributed to the understanding of the complex pollution effects. Even if there are still considerable gaps of knowledge it seems that NOx and O3 may contribute in an important way to the deterioration of several materials also in indoor environments which are important for i.a. electronic equipment, storage conditions and museums. Important knowledge has been gained from the International Cooperation Project within UK ECE which is an extensive field exposure on 39 test sites. Dose-response relations have been obtained after 4-year exposure showing the effect of dry and wet deposition on corrosion of several material groups. Also the effect of micro- and mesoclimate on corrosion of building materials like plaster and bricks in different positions on buildings and locations within an urban area has been subject to systematic studies. Results from the studies are used i.a. for assessment of so called acceptable corrosion levels and for mapping areas where the levels are exceeded at different pollution scenarios, as well as for calculation of economic damage. Based on model studies for some city areas tentative calculations of damage cost have been performed for the European region. The indirect effects consist of increased corrosion due to water and soil acidification which are of importance in geologically sensitive areas. Structures which are in contact with soil and water represent a very great capital investment and are of vital importance to the community.
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  • 44
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Rhinichthys atratulus ; condition factor ; whole-body sodium ; Shenandoah National Park ; acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Condition factor, “K”, was measured for 1202 blacknose dace (Rhinichthys atratulus) from three streams in Shenandoah National Park (USA) of different acid neutralizing capacities (ANCs). “K” is a ratio of weight standardized to length; it is an indication of the health of the individuals in a population. R. atratulus condition factor in the low-ANC stream was found to be significantly lower (11%) than that of dace measured for fish from the intermediate- and high-ANC streams. This difference, according to the results of related investigations, is likely to be biologically significant. Whole-body sodium concentrations were measured as an additional test of sublethal stress in these streams. During summer base flow conditions, mean whole-body sodium concentrations of adult R. atratulus maintained in cages were found to be highest in the low-ANC stream and lowest in the high-ANC stream. The lower condition factor of dace in the low-ANC stream may be related to whole-body sodium concentration and ion regulation. Ion regulation in the low-ANC stream may be more metabolically costly because of chronic sublethal pH stress. R. atratulus may maintain high body Na+ concentrations in low ANC- and ionic strength waters in order to provide a buffer against large episodic pH depressions. The metabolic cost of this ionoregulatory over-compensation may necessitate the diversion of energy from somatic growth and explain the poorer condition of fish from such waters.
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  • 45
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 383-388 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; fish population extinctions ; physiological stress
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Investigation of Heeney Lake, 21.7 ha, revealed a small population of white sucker, Catostomus commersoni. Only four age-classes were represented in this normally abundant and long-lived species. By 1984 only one new age-class had been recruited into the population. As these fish spawned in the outlet stream in early spring, the potential toxicity of these waters was assessed at two snow-melt events. Rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, of hatchery origin were held in the outlet stream as pH declined from 6.5 to 4.7 during a snow melt, late February. Trout showed a loss of 19% in plasma Na and 24% in Cl concurrent with gill Al concentration increasing from 10 to 250 μg'g−1 dry wt. At the mid-April snow melt, pH fell to 4.1, and rainbow trout held in the outlet showed a decline in plasma sodium of 42% and gill Al increased from 10 to 415 μg'g−1 dry wt. Control rainbow trout held in Harp L. at pH 6.3 showed no significant change in plasma and muscle ion concentrations, or in gill Al concentration. White sucker from nearby waters were held in Heeney Lake outlet, late April, and muscle Na and Cl declined significantly as gill Al concentration increased from 11 to 50 μg'g−1 dry wt during 48 hr exposure. White sucker hekl in Heeney L. outlet, mid-May, showed no significant change in plasma ions. No white sucker have been captured in Heeney L. since 1984 and the population is presumed to be extinct. Acid deposition has declined in recent years but lake and stream pH have not recovered and fish populations may still decline or disappear.
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  • 46
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 389-394 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: fish community ; colonization ; extinction ; acidification ; temporal patterns
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Fish communities in four lakes sampled over several years were compared against a reference data set of forty-nine lakes in south-central Ontario. Two of the temporal-comparison lakes (Crosson and Grindstone) exhibit significant changes in their fish communities relative to the reference set. This was due to the extirpation of various fish species (white sucker Catostomus commersoni, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and blacknose shiner Notropis heterolepis) during the intervening years. A control lake in the temporal comparison (Poorhouse) showed little change in species composition over time and no loss of species. The fourth temporal lake, Plastic Lake, also showed little change likely as a consequence of the previously documented extinctions in this lake. White suckers within Crosson Lake have demonstrated intermittent recruitment and a 89% reduction in population abundance due to acid-induced reproductive constraints in their spawning stream. Similar conditions contributed to the loss of sucker populations and additional species in Grindstone and Plastic Lakes also. Various species in many of the lakes represent metapopulations. Given the barriers imposed by outflow drainage conditions, these accelerated rates of local extinctions have not been balanced by colonizations from other lakes within the watershed. As a consequence the underlying fish communities have been changed and will remain so without active rehabilitation.
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  • 47
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 407-412 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Stream ; acidification ; aluminium ; invertebrates ; insects ; accumulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acidified surface waters often show elevated aluminium (Al) levels, detrimental to fish and some invertebrates. Whether Al can accumulate in benthic invertebrates, with time and/or along the food chain, is not clear. To test this, benthic invertebrates, representing different functional feeding groups, were collected in spring from streams, with different acidity and Al concentrations. Weight-specific Al content was determined with an AAS. At localities with pH ≈ 4, high Al contents (≈ 1 mg inorg-Al g−1 af dw) were found in shredders and/or deposit feeders (Asellus aquaticus, Nemoura sp., and limnephilids), while the predator Isoperla grammatica contained only ≈ 0.3 mg Al g−1, and the “filtering predator” Plectrocnemia conspersa almost no Al. Also at pH ≈ 6 Nemoura sp. and limnephilids showed significantly higher Al contents than did the predators Isoperla grammatica and Rhyacophila nubila, Al concentrations of the animals were often higher at pH 4 than at pH 6. Thus, no evidence of any food chain accumulation (or biomagnification) of Al could be validated. Accordingly, this study gives no support that the high concentrations of Al in fish and birds are due to their feeding on benthic invertebrates at low pH conditions. It was also found that animals that inhabit and/or consume benthic detritus as food contain highest Al levels.
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  • 48
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 419-424 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; acid episodes ; critical load ; mountain ; streams ; benthic fauna ; fish
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Investigations in the southern part of the Scandinavian mountain range have shown a direct correlation between snowpack pH and the lowest pH in small streams. In streams with catchments 〈100 km2 a snowpack pH below 4.8 resulted in a stream pH below 5.5. As the snowpack pH in the southern mountain range is 4.0–4.6, lower values to the south and at high altitudes, large areas are affected by acid deposition. The acidity of the snowpack is released almost directly into the streams during thaw, due to the large snowpack, rapid thaw, steep terrain and thin soils. The acidification of the snow has lead to an extensive fauna depletion, especially in smaller streams without upstream lakes. The abundance of benthos in acidified streams in the municipality of Härjedalen (11.000 km2) is today only one tenth of the abundance before acidification. Fish populations have declined to the same extent, and several acid-sensitive species have been lost. It is concluded that mountain streams and fauna are extremely sensitive to acidification, and that even large reductions of emissions will be insufficient.
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  • 49
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Brook trout ; acidification ; Virginia ; early life history
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Shenandoah National Park receives more atmospheric sulfate loading than any other USA national park. pH has been gradually declining in low-ANC streams for more than 10 years. We have completed four 1-to-3 month-long field bioassays in three streams differing in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), using a total of 18,000 hatchery brook trout eyed-eggs through fry. In three of the four bioassays, embryos/fry showed poorer survivorship in the low-ANC stream, compared to the high-ANC stream. Substantial mortalities occurred under different hydrological conditions, including steady rain plus significant rain events (fall 1992), low rainfall followed by a significant rain event (spring 1993), and steady light rain and snowmelt with no large rain events (spring 1994). In a fourth bioassay (fall 1993), poor survivorship occurred in all three streams due to drought conditions. Trout placed in the intermediate-ANC stream showed variable survivorship, in two bioassays as high as in the high-ANC stream, and in one bioassay as poor as in the low-ANC stream. Baseflow ANC in the intermediate-ANC stream is 40–100 ueq/L, and pH never falls below 6.0. However, during episodes, pH in this stream sometimes fluctuates rapidly in the range of 6.0 to 7.0, and this fluctuation itself may be a source of physiological stress.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Scots pine ; Pinus sylvestris ; deposition ; element budget ; soil solution ; soil chemistry ; alkaline dust ; pH ; acidification ; sulfur release
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Since 1993 we are studying three Scots pine ecosystems along a deposition gradient in north-eastern Germany (formerly GDR). Dramatic reductions of pollutant emissions are reported for the period since 1989/90. S-deposition is high at the sites Roesa and Taura (25 kg S ha−1yr−1) compared to Neuglobsow. Inputs of basic cations, especially Ca, by alkaline dust immissions decrease in the order Roesa 〉 Taura 〉 Neuglobsow. The soil solution data show high concentrations of Ca and SO4 at Roesa decreasing drastically along the deposition gradient. The elevated pH values reflect the impact of alkaline dust deposition particularly in the organic surface layer at Roesa. The site Taura received less base cation deposition and is marked by the lowest pH values throughout the soil profile combined with increased Al concentrations in the solution of the mineral soil. Thus, the composition of the soil solutions clearly reflects the different deposition regimes of the past. The element budgets show that large amounts of base cations, sulfur, and, at Taura, also aluminum are actually released from the soils that were previously stored.
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  • 51
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; buffering ; groundwater ; monitoring ; precipitation ; seasalt ; soil ; soilwater ; throughfall
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Chemical time trends for precipitation, throughfall, and soilwater (1986–1992), and groundwater (1980–1993) at Birkenes, southern Norway, are compared to gain insights into possible causes for the recent increase in groundwater acidification there. Precipitation and throughfall trends do not show evidence for an increase in anthropogenic acids (e.g. sulphate), but seasalt deposition (e.g. chloride) has been marginally greater in 1990–1992 than in most previous years on record. Soilwater composition partly indicates increasing acidification in recent years (pH, Al and ANC), but hardness and sulphate content are decreasing. Soilwater ANC became negative in 1989, revealing a lasting deficit in its potential to buffer acidity. Groundwater shows clear signs of intensifying acidification (pH, Al, ANC, hardness and sulphate), and this may result partly from climatic conditions (mild winters, ‘seasalt episodes’) and partly from the deterioration of an acid buffering system within the soil cover. Acidification via sulphate deposition certainly is not a direct cause. The declining hardness of soilwater suggests that the ion-exchange buffer in the soil may have ceased to function properly. The necessity for obtaining long-term time-series of water chemistry is underscored by this study.
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  • 52
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: biogeochemistry ; watershed ; watershed analysis ; model ; budget ; input-output ; base cations ; dynamics ; weathering ; forest floor ; nutrient cycles ; soil ; acidification ; depletion ; ecosystem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Watershed ecosystem analysis has been used to study aspects of nutrient cycles in many regions of the US. Here we quantify watershed input-output budgets and intrasystem cycling of the base cations Ca, K and Mg in a montane Virginia ecosystem. The intrasystem fluxes of uptake, return, canopy leaching and mineralization were simulated over the period of forest aggradation. A forest-dynamics model, based on previous models, was created to model biotically-driven fluxes at this site; biomass nutrient concentrations were parameterized with a field study. A two-year watershed mass-balance study was then conducted to estimate geologic fluxes for comparison with modeled biotic fluxes. Results show the major biotic fluxes to be much greater, highlighting the importance of considering biomass dynamics in ecosystem nutrient-cycling studies. Mineralization from forest-floor biomass compartments proved to be an increasingly important avenue for internal recycling during aggradation. Accumulation of base cations in biomass also corresponded to a production of H+ in soil at three times the H+ levels in atmospheric deposition at this location. Such high levels of base removal in soils could exceed weathering rates and may result in a depletion of bases from the soil exchange complex.
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  • 53
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Concentration depth profiles ; weathering reactions ; acidification ; cation exchange ; aluminium solubility ; aluminium sulphate minerals ; distribution of trace metals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents data on the chemical composition of soil pore fluids that have been obtained by a high-pressure squeezing technique and lysimeter sampling. Cation-exchange capacity has been calculated from cations extracted by a simple percolation method. All pore water concentrations are greatly influenced by the pH in solution. Most pore water concentrations do not simply parallel the corresponding mineralogical and chemical composition of the solids. The depth of the acidification front, as determined by analysis of samples obtained by percolation, is much better reflected in the chemical composition of the squeezed soil pore fluids than in the lysimeter samples. Distinct gradients are seen in Al concentration. In the B-horizons, concentrations of Al are close to the solubility of gibbsite. The pore water concentration profiles of Si and K apparently indicate dissolution of K-silicates, in particular K-feldspar. Contrary to the squeezed pore solutions the sulphate maximum concentration in the soil profile is not recorded by lysimeter samples. Mineral saturation indices show that pore solutions by squeezing are close to the saturation concentrations for K-jarosite and K-alunite. Sulphur-rich phases from the soil are compatible with mixtures of alunite jarosite, zaherite, basaluminite, and hydrobasaluminite. In the upper soil horizons the liquid/solid ratios [calculated as: concentration in solution (µg/ml) * solution fraction in solids (ml/g)/concentration in solids (µg/g)] increase in the order Ph 〈 OC ≈ Zn 〈 Cd and range from 10−6 to 10−3, indicating that Ph is most strongly held and still accumulates in the organic top soil. In the underlying deeper mineral horizons the ratios for Pb, Zn, and Cd decrease by one order of magnitude.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 91 (1996), S. 271-282 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; diatom ; model ; organic acids
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We employed three mathematical models to make quantitative estimates of the pH of 33 statistically-selected lakes in the Adirondack mountains, New York (USA) prior to the Industrial Revolution (1840). The models included 1) the MAGIC watershed acidification model, 2) a paleolimnological model of diatom-inferred pH, and 3) the MAGIC model modified to incorporate an empirically-based model of natural organic acidity. Application of approaches 2) and 3) yielded consistent estimates of pre-industrial Adirondack lakewater pH. However, when the organic acid model was not included, MAGIC calculations and diatom-inferred values showed poor agreement. MAGIC projections of lakewater pH 50 years into the future, under differing atmospheric deposition scenarios, were also sensitive to inclusion of the organic acid model. MAGIC predicted greater recovery in response to reduced deposition when organic acids were not considered. These results suggest that failure to consider the pH buffering of naturally-occurring organic acidity will often result in biased projections which overemphasize the response of lakewater pH to changes in atmospheric inputs of strong acid.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 93 (1997), S. 255-266 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Ratcliffe index ; egg size ; acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Eggs of dippers Cinclus cinclus from a chronically acidified area in Southern Norway werecompared with eggs from a non-acidified area in Central Norway. There were no differences inegg size, as measured by volume, weight, length and calculated surface area, between the twoareas. Eggshells were 7.0% lighter and 6.1% thinner, as measured by the Ratcliffe index and 7.0%as measured by the eggshell index (shell weight/surface area) in Southern Norway than in CentralNorway. The Ratcliffe and eggshell indices were highly correlated. Scanning electron micrographsshowed that the palisade layer of eggshells of eggs from the acidified area was 10.7% thinner thanthat of eggshells of eggs from the non-acidified area. Eggshell vapour permeability was notsignificantly influenced by area. Since the moderately lower thickness in Southern Norway wasnot accompanied by higher vapour permeability, this indicates that the reduced eggshell thicknessdid not cause desiccation of dipper eggs in the acidified area. The possibility of underestimatingthe environmental effects of acidification on dippers is discussed.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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  • 62
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Speculations in science and technology 21 (1998), S. 187-197 
    ISSN: 1573-9309
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; climate change ; radiant energy production
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General , Technology
    Notes: Abstract The present mechanism of radiant energy production in the atmosphere is considered and it is shown that it is not compatible with accepted principles of physics. An alternative mechanism whereby the temperature of the atmosphere and surface of the Earth is regulated by a chemical reaction in the stratosphere is described. It is shown that this mechanism can account for the changes in climate which occurred during the past ten thousand years. The effect on this mechanism of changes in the composition of atmospheric gases, including changes resulting from human activities, is described and the consequences of the changes recorded.
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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    Environmental and resource economics 1 (1991), S. 313-332 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Manure problem ; nutrient policy ; nutrient surplus ; regulatory levy ; sustainability ; agriculture ; intensive livestock sector ; acidification ; groundwater pollution ; eutrophication
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Rapid increases in livestock production in the Netherlands have changed manure from a valuable input into a mere waste product. This is especially true for the southern and eastern parts of the country, where specialized pig and poultry farms have concentrated on sandy soils. As these farms generally own very little land, they largely depend on imported feedstuffs. As a consequence, manure is applied to the land in such large quantities that serious environmental problems have resulted: (1) eutrophication of surface water by phosphate emissions; (2) pollution of groundwater by nitrate emissions; and (3) acidification by ammonia emissions. In the last few years the Dutch government has developed a manure policy to counteract these effects. Our analysis of that policy has revealed at least three fundamental defects, which render the manure policy ineffective and inefficient. In this paper proposals are made to remove the defects in current manure policy. Much attention is paid to the problem of designing a mixture of policy instruments which is both effective as well as efficient in limiting the environmental problems caused by manure. It is shown that the use of financial incentives in regulation can substantially improve the efficiency of the manure policy. Finally, the main economic consequences of the proposed policy are examined for the public sector as well as for the agricultural sector.
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    Environmental and resource economics 2 (1992), S. 161-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Pollution contron ; acidification ; acid rain game ; transboundary air pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Transboundary air pollution is analysed as a dynamic game between Finland and the nearby areas of the Soviet Union. Sulphur emissions are used as the environmental control variables and the acidities of the soils as the state variables. Acidification is consequently considered to be a stock pollutant having long-lasting harmful effects on the environment. The state dynamics consist of two relationships: first, of a sulphur transportation model between the regions and, second, of a model describing how the quality of the soil is affected by sulphur deposition. The countries are assumed to be interested in maximizing the net benefits from pollution control as measured by the impacts on the values of forest growth net of the abatement costs. Cooperative and noncooperative solutions of the game are compared to assess the benefits of bilateral cooperation. Using empirical estimates of abatement costs, acidification dynamics and impacts on forest growth it is shown that cooperation is beneficial to Finland but not to the Soviet Union. Consequently, Finland has to offer monetary compensation to induce her neighbor to invest in environmental protection.
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
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    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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  • 69
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
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    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
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    Keywords: climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 137-165 
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    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; decision-making ; variability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 199-213 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; impact assessment ; response options ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 227-237 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; climate variability ; data ; climate applications ; El Niño ; UNFCCC
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 239-252 
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    Keywords: climate change ; coastal zones ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; IPCC Technical Guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 283-293 
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    Keywords: natural catastrophes ; climate change ; changing extremes ; costs of climate ; change ; insurance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In the last few decades, the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions, which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves, on the other hand, are showing a change for the worse as many atmospheric extremes are strongly influenced by global warming. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing, capacity and loss reserves, the assessment of insured liabilities, preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The changing probability distributions of many processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, tornados, hailstorms, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance, apart from the consequences of the stratospheric ozone destruction for health and life insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed, as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 295-306 
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    Keywords: disasters ; storms ; floods ; droughts ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for geological disasters. Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from greenhouse gases? Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The task is only begun.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 343-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; socioeconomic impacts ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
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    Keywords: climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
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    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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  • 95
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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  • 96
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 97
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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  • 98
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 100
    Electronic Resource
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    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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