ALBERT

Description: Helmet streamers on the sun were observed to be the site of coronal mass ejections, dynamic events that eject coronal plasma and magnetic fields into the solar wind. A two dimensional (azimuthally symmetric) helmet streamer configuration was developed by computing solutions of the time dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, for a specified magnetic flux distribution on the sun. The helmet streamer is not symmetric about the equator. The evolution of the configuration, when differential rotation is applied, was investigated. It was found that after many rotations the configuration does not reach a steady state, but disrupts recurrently with the ejection of a plasmoid. These results suggest that differential rotation may be one of the mechanisms by which mass ejections are initiated.

Description: The ground-based observing facilities of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) are reviewed from the perspective of joint observations with SOHO. A specific proposal is presented for observations of the HE-I 1083.0 nm line with the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph and He 10830 video filtergraph/magnetograph in coordination with ultraviolet sensitive instruments on SOHO. The first task will be to look for associations of low-temperature transition-region lines with He 1083 nm absorption to investigate Andretta's conjecture, i.e. that the He 1083 nm line is formed in two layers where extreme ultraviolet radiation produced both in the low-temperature transition region (the upper layer) and in the surrounding corona products - a lower layer of absorption in the upper chromosphere.

Description: The white light coronograph (WLC) on Skylab provided an opportunity to study the corona at high spatial and temporal resolution. The spatial resolution of the instrument was approximately 25 cm with images taken approximately one per min. One set of images taken over a 10 min period was digitized, providing ten high spatial resolution images for analysis. The progress in data processing techniques available at the time was not sufficient to permit a reliable study of the fine structure in these images. Using current techniques an investigation of the sizes and lifetimes of the smallest scale features in the data was carried out. A preliminary analysis of an area between 2 and 3 Ro was completed. The results show that very narrow rays extend from at least 2 to 3 Ro. The narrowest of these rays has a thickness of approximately 75 cm. The contrast is so low that they are very close to the noise limit of the data. Most of the rays observed become unrecognizable after 10 min, although some remain visible over the entire time. Some notion seems to be detectable in the fine structure rays, but analysis of more frames will be needed to quantify these results.

Description: Filaments, flare sprays, prominences and 'post-flare' loops are familiar to H alpha observers in their frequent appearances 'in absorption', dark against the chromospheric background or plages. Observations of the X-ray corona are generally interpreted as due to emission via optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung. Several cases of X-ray coronal structures in Yohkoh images, due to high opacity, absorbing matter in coronograph loops, are presented. The presence of the absorbing matter, mixed with emitting matter, complicates inference of physical parameters such as emission measures in X-ray sources. In the case of well defined features, absorption provides an opportunity to infer density. Quantitative estimates of the attenuation due to the absorption in example features are presented.

Description: The causal association of major solar particle events seen at earth with coronal mass ejections (CME's), and not with solar flares, is discussed. Evidence that led to the demise of the flare dominated paradigm for major solar energetic particle events are described. The possibility of distinguishing particles from impulsive and gradual events using only observations is described. Particle acceleration at the CME level is discussed. Multi-spacecraft observations of CME events are described. Concerning the interplanetary CME, bidirectional proton events are discussed. Conclusions from progress in understanding the characteristics of solar energetic particles and their relation to the physical mechanisms of acceleration are given.

Description: Two dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the distortion of a magnetic flux tube, accelerated through ambient solar wind plasma, are presented. Vortices form on the trailing edge of the flux tube, and couple strongly to its interior. If the flux tube azimuthal field is weak, it deforms into an elongated banana-like shape after a few Alfven transit times. A significant azimuthal field component inhibits this distortion. In the case of magnetic clouds in the solar wind, it is suggested that the shape observed at 1 AU was determined by distortion of the cloud in the inner heliosphere. Distortion of the cloud beyond 1 AU takes many days. It is estimated that effective drag coefficients slightly greater than unity are appropriate for modeling flux tube propagation. Synthetic magnetic field profiles as would be seen by a spacecraft traversing the cloud are presented.

Description: Since radio propagation measurements using either natural or spacecraft radio signals are used for probing the solar wind in the vicinity of the sun, they represent a key tool for studying the interplanetary consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena. New information on the near sun consequences was obtained from radio scintillation observations of coherent spacecraft signals. The results covering density fluctuations, fractional density fluctuations, coronal streamers, heliospheric current sheets, coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks are reviewed. A joint ICE S-band (13 cm wavelength) Doppler scintillation measurement with the SOHO white-light coronograph (LASCO) is described.

Description: The scaling properties of a time series of Doppler images obtained in good visibility conditions are studied. A 28 cm vacuum telescope and a vacuum spectroheliograph in video spectra-spectroheliograph mode, are used. Sixty line-of-sight Doppler images of an area of the quiet sun are investigated. They were taken at 60 sec intervals over a one hour span and have a 2 arcsec resolution. After the removal of the five-minute oscillations, the time-spatial spectrum is calculated. To study the turbulence of photospheric flows, two scaling parameters in the spectra, are estimated: the exponent of the spatial part of the power spectrum, and the exponent governing the scaling of time correlations. The implied diffusive behavior is discussed. This includes the estimation of a diffusion coefficient and the type of diffusion involved.

Description: The nonlocal non-diffusive transport of passive scalars in turbulent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) convection is investigated using transilient matrices. These matrices describe the probability that a tracer particle beginning at one position in a flow will be advected to another position after some time. A method for the calculation of these matrices from simulation data which involves following the trajectories of passive tracer particles and calculating their transport statistics, is presented. The method is applied to study the transport in several simulations of turbulent, rotating, three dimensional compressible, penetrative MDH convection. Transport coefficients and other diagnostics are used to quantify the transport, which is found to resemble advection more closely than diffusion. Some of the results are found to have direct relevance to other physical problems, such as the light element depletion in sun-type stars. The large kurtosis found for downward moving particles at the base of the convection zone implies several extreme events.

Description: Long uninterrupted sequences of solar magnetograms from the global oscillations network group (GONG) network and from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite will provide the opportunity to study the proper motions of magnetic features. The possible use of multiscale regularization, a scale-recursive estimation technique which begins with a prior model of how state variables and their statistical properties propagate over scale. Short magnetogram sequences are analyzed with the multiscale regularization algorithm as applied to optical flow. This algorithm is found to be efficient, provides results for all the spatial scales spanned by the data and provides error estimates for the solutions. It is found that the algorithm is less sensitive to evolutionary changes than correlation tracking.

Description: Ulysses has collected data between 1 and 5 AU during, and just following solar maximum, when the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) can be thought of as reaching its maximum tilt and being subject to the maximum amount of turbulence in the solar wind. The Ulysses solar wind plasma instrument measures the vector velocity and can be used to estimate the flow speed and direction in turbulent 'eddies' in the solar wind that are a fraction of an astronomical unit in size and last (have either a turnover or dynamical interaction time of) several hours to more than a day. Here, in a simple exercise, these solar wind eddies at the HCS are characterized using Ulysses data. This character is then used to define a model flow field with eddies that is imposed on an ideal HCS to estimate how the HCS will be deformed by the flow. This model inherently results in the complexity of the HCS increasing with heliocentric distance, but the result is a measure of the degree to which the observed change in complexity is a measure of the importance of solar wind flows in deforming the HCS. By comparison with randomly selected intervals not located on the HCS, it appears that eddies on the HCS are similar to those elsewhere at this time during the solar cycle, as is the resultant deformation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF deformation is analogous to what is often termed the 'random walk' of interplanetary magnetic field lines.

Description: A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Description: The Galileo Ultravilet Spectrometer Experiment (UVS) obtained a partial celestial sphere map of interplanetary Lyman-alpha (IP L alpha) on 13-14 December 1990 during the first Earth encounter. The Galileo spacecraft was near the downwind axis of the local interstellar medium flow. These UVS measurements sampled the downwind, anti-sunward hemisphere. The data were modeled using a hot model of the interplanetary hydrogen density distribution with the goal of studying multiple scattering effects in the inner solar system. The derived ratio in the downwind direction of the observed brightness and a single scattering model brightness, both normalized to unity in the upwind direction, is 1.82 +/- 0.2. This brightness ratio requires a multiple scattering correction which is 36% larger than can be accounted for by theoretical calculations. The hot model may require: (1) a temperature perturbation of the interstellar wind velocity distribution or (2) an additional downstream source of interplanetary hydrogen. However, a more likely exlanation which affects the hot model is the latitude dependence of the radiation pressure. This dependence, based on the known solar L alpha flux latitude variation at solar maximum, causes a downwind brightness enhancement by preferential focusing of H-atoms with trajectory planes containing the solar poles. This result implies that radiation pressure near the solar poles is nearly independent of solar cycle and is insufficient to lead to a net repulsion of hydrogen atoms by the sun, as can occur near the ecliptic plane during the solar maximum. In addition, the UVS performed 13 observations of IP L alpha while in cruise between Venus and the Earth in 3 directions fixed in ecliptic coordinates.

Description: Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Description: In this paper we generalize earlier gasdynamic analyses of the motion of the heliospheric termination shock in response to upstream disturbances (Barnes, 1993, 1994; Naidu and Barnes, 1994), to include magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) phenomena. We assume that the termination shock is a strong, perpendicular shock and that the initial upstream disturbance is a tangential discontinuity. The resulting configuration after the interaction is very similar to that in the gasdynamic models after an interaction with a contact discontinuity or interplanetary shock, and for an increase (decrease) in dynamic pressure consists of an outward (inward) propagating termination shock and an outward propagating shock (MHD rarefraction wave) that carries the signal of the disturbance into the far downstream plasma. The plasma immediately behind the new termination shock is separated from the downstream signal by a tangential discontinuity. The results of the model show that the speed of the new termination shock depends mainly on the magnitude of the change in dynamic pressure and are typically of order approximately 100 km/s, comparable to the results of the gasdynamic models.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: Several physical and observational effects contribute to the significant imbalances of magnetic flux that are often observed in active regions. We consider an effect not previously treated: the influence of electric currents in the photosphere. Electric currents can cause a line-of-sight flux imbalance because of the directionality of the magnetic field they produce. Currents associated with magnetic flux tubes produce larger imbalances than do smoothly-varying distributions of flux and current. We estimate the magnitude of this effect for current densities, total currents, and magnetic geometry consistent with observations. The expected imbalances lie approximately in the range 0-15%, depending on the character of the current-carying fields and the angle from which they are viewed. Observationally, current-induced flux imbalances could be indicated by a statistical dependence of the imbalance on angular distance from disk center. A general study of magnetic flux balance in active regions is needed to determine the relative importance of other- probably larger- effects such as dilute flux (too weak to measure or rendered invisible by radiative transfer effects), merging with weak background fields, and long-range connections between active regions.

Description: The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Description: A semianalytic method is derived for dealing simultaneously with large numbers of linear stellar oscillation modes trapped in a cavity (a shell) of fluid which is rotating and convecting. A simple generalization of mixing-length theory shows how convection is modulated by weak rotational effects and by the horizontal wind fields of linear r-mode oscillations. The modulated convection is then used to compute the energy lost to turbulent viscosity by a family of nondegenerate oscillations. Viscosity terms of fourth degree in the wind shear can be included if they are a perturbation affecting only a small portion of the r-mode. Viscous energy loss strenghthens convection in a narrow layer near the base of the H and He ionization zone. In the Sun, this layer is about 7 Mm thick and centered at 0.932 of a solar radius where convection cells have a typical size of about 20 Mm and a lifetime of 0.3 Ms, both similar to what is observed in supergranules. If the rms velocity of r-modes at the surface exceeds 5 m/s, then energy is deposited inside the Sun at a sufficient rate to power the supergranulation and impose on it a weak latitude dependence.

Description: We determined the infrared optical constants of nitric acid trihydrate, nitric acid dihydrate, nitric acid monohydrate, and solid amorphous nitric acid solutions which crystallize to form these hydrates. We have also found the infrared optical constants of H2O ice. We measured the transmission of infrared light throught thin films of varying thickness over the frequency range from about 7000 to 500/cm at temperatures below 200 K. We developed a theory for the transmission of light through a substrate that has thin films on both sides. We used an iterative Kramers-Kronig technique to determine the optical constants which gave the best match between measured transmission spectra and those calculated for a variety of films of different thickness. These optical constants should be useful for calculations of the infrared spectrum of polar stratospheric clouds.

Description: Meteorological conditions, extremely conducive to fire development and spread in the spring of 1987, resulted in forest fires burning over extremely large areas in the boreal forest zone in northeastern China and the southeastern region of Siberia. The great China fire, one of the largest and most destructive forest fires in recent history, occurred during this period in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Satellite imagery is used to examine the development and areal distribution of 1987 forest fires in this region. Overall trace gas emissions to the atmosphere from these fires are determined using a satellite-derived estimate of area burned in combination with fuel consumption figures and carbon emission ratios for boreal forest fires.

Description: In November to December 1991, a substantial number of remote sensors and in situ instruments were operated together in Coffeyville, Kansas, during the climate experiment First ISCCP Regional Experiment Phase 2 (FIRE 2). Includede in the suite of instruments were (1) the NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL) three-channel microwave radiometer, (2) the NASA GSFC Raman lidar, (3) ETL radio acoustic sounding system (RASS), and (4) frequent, research-quality radiosondes. The Raman lidar operated only at night and the focus of this portion of the experiment concentrated on clear conditions. The lidar data, together with frequent radiosondes and measurements of temperature profiles (every 15 min) by RASS allowed profiles of temperature and absolute humidity to be estimated every minute. We compared 20 min measurements of brightness temperature (T(sub b) with calculations of T(sub b) that were based on the Liebe and Layton (1987) and Liebe et al. (1993) microwave propagation models, as well as the Waters (1976) model. The comparisons showed the best agreement at 20.6 GHz with the Waters model, with the Liebe et al. (1993) model being best at 31.65 GHz. The results at 90 GHz gave about equal success with the Liebe and Layton (1987) and Liebe et al. (1993) models. Comparisons of precipitable water vapor derived independently from the two instruments also showed excellent agreement, even for averages as short as 2 min. The rms difference between Raman and radiometric determinations of precipitable water vapor was 0.03 cm which is roughly 2%. The experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of simultaneous operation of radiometers and Raman lidars for fundamental physical studies of water vapor.

Description: The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semi-annual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal-mean cross sections of MLS water vapor are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and the stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and the polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.

Description: This paper describes the validation of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology project (ISCCP)cloud detections by verifying the accuracy of the infrared clear-sky radiances. Comparison of retrieved surface temperatures to other measurements shows that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 2 K for sea surface (monthly means at 280-km scales) and that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 4 K for land surfaces (3 hourly at 280-km scales). Bias errors over a few persistently cloudy locations are sometimes -(2-4) K and over winter sea ice may be about +2 K. Surface reflectances are confirmed to be within 3% of other measurements and models for ocean, except for sun glint geometries, and to be within 3%-5% for land surfaces. Sufficiently accurate validation data are not avilable for visible reflectances of sea ice and snow-covered land, but some tests of specific cases suggest that errors are approximately 10%. These errors in clear-sky radiances suggest uncertainties in the ISCCP cloud detections of about 10% with a small (3%-6%) negative bias over land. Some specific regions exhibit both larger rms uncertainties and somewhat larger biases in cloud amount approaching 10%. ISCCP cloud detections are more in error over the polar regions than anywhere else. Based on comparisons with an anlysis of radiances measured at other wavelengths, the ISCCP analysis appears to miss 15%-25% of the clouds in summer but only 5%-10% of the winter clouds.

Description: Water vapor concentrations obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) and collocated temperatures provided by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) from 1986 to 1990 are used to deduce seasonally and zonally averaged acidity, density, and refractive index of stratospheric aerosols. It is found that the weight percentage of sulfuric acid in the aerosols increases from about 60 just above the tropopause to about 86 at 35 km. The density increases from about 1.55 to 1.85 g/cu cm between the same altitude limits. Some seasonal variations of composition and density are evident at high latitudes. The refractive indices at 1.02, 0.694, and 0.532 micrometers increase, respectively, from about 1.425, 1.430, and 1.435 just above the tropopause to about 1.445, 1.455, and 1.458 at altitudes above 27 km, depending on the season and latitude. The aerosol properties presented can be used in models to study the effectiveness of heterogeneous chemistry, the mass loading of stratospheric aerosols, and the extinction and backscatter of aerosols at different wavelengths. Computed aerosol surface areas, rate coefficients for the heterogeneous reaction ClONO2 + H2O yields HOCl + HNO3 and aerosol mass concentrations before and after the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 are shown as sample applications.

Description: The global distribution of ozone during the October 31, 1978, to May 6, 1993, observing lifetime of the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) is described, with emphasis on the low ozone amounts observed during 1992 and 1993. Ozone amount time series are extended beyong May 6, 1993, to the end of July 1993 using preliminary Meteor 3 TOMS data. Time series for zonally averaged ozone amounts show that there has not been a significant shift in the seasonal patterns of ozone maxima and minima caused by the Mount Pinatubo eruption or by the onset of very low ozone values during 1992 and 1993. There has been a relatively slow, nearly linear decrease in the amount of ozone over the entire globe from 1979 to the end of 1991, with rates ranging from no change at the equator to a 4 - 6% decrease per decade at midlatitudes and a 10 - 12% decrease per decade at higher latitudes. After the eruption of Mount Pinatubo during June 1991, the ozone amount decreased in the equatorial latitudes (10 deg S to 10 deg N) for about 6 months (-10 Dobson units (DU) between 0 deg and 10 deg S and -3 DU between 0 deg and 10 deg N). During 1992 and continuing into 1993, the rate of ozone decrease deviated from the previously linear trend with the onset of changes that were large in comparison with the historical range of ozone values from 1979 to 1991. The first of the large decreases in ozone amount occurred earlier, in February 1990 to May 1990, at 50 deg - 70 deg N. At high northern latitudes, the 1993 decreased ozone amounts were about 12.5% below the envelope of historical values; at midlatitudes they were about 7% lower; and at low latitudes they were about 4% lower. Area-weighted averages in the northern and southern hemispheres show that most of the 1992 - 1993 ozone losses have occurred in the northern hemisphere. The 1993 global average (70 deg S to 70 deg N) ozone amount is 3% below the 1979 to 1991 minimum, 5% below the historical envelope in the northern hemisphere, and near the lower boundary of the historical envelope in the southern hemisphere. In the 70 deg - 60 deg S latitude band, the ozone losses between 1979 and 1993 have reduced the annual minimum amount to values below those seen in the equatorial regions.

Description: A new 8-year global cloud climatology has been produced by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) that provides information every 3 h at 280-km spatial resolution covering the period from July 1983 through June 1991. If cloud detection errors and differences in area sampling are neglected, individual ISCCP cloud amounts agree with individual surface observations to within 15% rms with biases of only a few percent. When measurements of small-scale, broken clouds are isolated in the comparison, the rms differences between satellite and surface cloud amounts are about 25%, similar to the rms difference between ISCCP and Landsat determinations of cloud amount. For broken clouds, the average ISCCP cloud amounts are about 5% smaller than estimated by surface observers (difference between earth cover and sky cover), but about 5% larger than estimated from very high spatial resolution satellite observations (overestimate due to low spatial resolution offset by underestimate due to finite radiance thresholds). Detection errors caused by errors in the ISCCP clear-sky radiances or incorrect radiance threshold magnitudes, are the dominant source of error in monthly average cloud amounts. The ISCCP cloud amounts appear to be too low over land by about 10%, somewhat less in summer and somewhat more in winter, and about right (maybe slightly low) over oceans. In polar regions, ISCCP cloud amounts are probably too low by about 15%-25% in summer and 5%-10% in winter. Comparison of the ISCCP climatology to three other cloud climatologies shows excellent agreement in the geographic distribution and seasonal variation of cloud amounts; there is little agreement about day/night contrasts in cloud amount. Notable results from ISCCP are that the gobal annual mean cloud amount is about 63%, being about 23% higher over oceans than over land, that it varies by less than 1% rms from month to month, and that it has varied by about 4% on a time scale approximately equal to 2-4 years. The magnitude of interannual variations of local (280-km scale) monthly mean cloud amounts is about 7%-9%. Longitudinal contrasts in cloud amount are just as large as latitudinal contrasts. The largest seasonal variation of cloud amount occurs in the tropics, being larger in summer than in winter; the seasonal variation in the middle latitudes has the opposite phase. Polar regions may have little seasonable variability in cloud amount. The ISCCP results show slightly more nightime than daytime cloud amount over oceans and more daytime than nightime cloud amount over land.

Description: This paper, the first of three, describes the cloud detection part of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) analysis. Key features of the cloud detection alogrithm are (1) use of space and time radiance variation tests over several different space and time domains to account for the global variety of cloudy and clear characteristics, (2) estimation of clear radiance values for every time and place, and, (3) use of radiance thresholds that vary with the type of surface and climate regime. Design of the detection algorithm was supported by global, multiyear surveys of the statistical behavior of satellite-measured infrared and visible radiances to determine those characteristics that differentiate cloudy and clear scenes and how these characteristics vary among climate regimes. A summary of these statistical results is presented to illustrate how the cloud detection method works in a variety of circumstances. The sensitivity of the results to changing test parameter values is determined to provide a first estimate of the uncertainty of ISCCP cloud amounts. These test results (which exclude polar regions) suggest detection uncertainties of about 10% with possible negative biases of 5% (especially at night).

Description: We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions. Both statistical and case studies have been carried out. In a case study of a 'bulge' observed by the High-Altitude Observatory Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph, the high-resolution magnetograms from the Big Bear Solar Observatory show newly emerging and rapidly changing flux in the magnetic fields that apparently underlie the bugle. For other case studies and in the statistical work the eruption of major quiescent filaments was taken as a proxy for CME eruption. We have found that two thirds of the quiescent-filament-associated CMEs occurred after substantial amounts of new magnetic flux emerged in the vicinity of the filament. In addition, in a study of all major quiescent filaments and active regions appearing in a 2-month period we found that 17 of the 22 filaments that were associated with new active regions erupted and 26 of the 31 filaments that were not associated with new flux did not erupt. In all cases in which the new flux was oriented favorably for reconnection with the preexisting large-scale coronal arcades; the filament was observed to erupt. The appearance of the new flux in the form of new active regions begins a few days before the eruption and typically is still occurring at the time of the eruption. A CME initiation scenario taking account of these observational results is proposed.

Description: Total solar irradiance measurements from the 1984-1993 Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) active cavity radiometer and 1978-1993 Nimbus 7 transfer cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments are analyzed to detect the presence of 11-, 22-, and 80-year irradiance variability components. The analyses confirmed the existence of a significant 11-year irradiance variability component, associated with solar magnetic activity and the sunspot cycle. The analyses also suggest the presence of a 22- or 80-year variability component. The earlier Nimbus 7 and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft irradiance measurements decreased approximately 1.2 and 1.3 W/sq m, respectively, between 1980 and 1986. The Nimbus 7 values increased 1.2 W/sq m between 1986 and 1989. The ERBS irradiance measurements increased 1.3 W/sq m during 1986-1989, and then decreased 0.4 W/sq m (at an annual rate of 0.14 W/sq. m/yr) during 1990-1993. Considering the correlations between ERBS, Nimbus 7, and SMM irradiance trends and solar magnetic activity, the total solar irradiance should decrease to minimum levels by 1997 as solar activity decreases to minimum levels, and then increase to maximum levels by the year 2000 as solar activity rises. The ERBS measurements yielded 165.4 +/- 0.7 W/sq m as the mean irradiance value with measurement accuracies and precisions of 0.2% and 0.02%, respectively. The ERBS mean irradiance value is within 0.2% of the 1367.4, 1365.9, and 1366.9 W/sq m mean values for the SMM, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), and Space Shuttle Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1) Solar Constant (SOLCON) active cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments, respectively. The Nimbus 7 measurements yielded 1372.1 W/sq m as the mean value with a measurement accuracy of 0.5%. Empirical irradiance model fits, based upon 10.7 -cm solar radio flux (F10) and photometric sunspot index (PSI), were used to assess the quality of the ERBS, Numbus 7, SMM, and the UARS irradiance data sets and to identify irradiance variability trends which may be caused by drifts or shifts in the spacecraft sensor responses. Comparisons among the fits and measured irradiances indicate that the Nimbus 7 radiometer response shifted by a total of 0.8 W/sq m between September 1989 and April 1990 and that the ERBS and UARS radiometers each drifted approximately 0.5 W/sq m during the first 5 months in orbit.

Description: The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Description: The term 'magnetic hole' has been used to denote isolated intervals when the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field drops to a few tenths, or less, of its ambient value for a time that corresponds to a linear dimension of tens to a few hundreds of proton gyro-radii. Data obtained by the Ulysses magnetometer and solar wind anlayzer have been combined to study the properties of such magnetic holes in the solar wind between 1 AU and 5.4 AU and to 23 deg south latitude. In order to avoid confusion with decreases in field strength at interplanetary discontinuities, the study has focused on linear holes across which the field direction changed by less than 5 deg. The holes occurred preferentially, but not without exception, in the interaction regions on the leading edges of high-speed solar wind streams. Although the plasma surrounding the holes was generally stable against the mirror instability, there are indications that the holes may have been remnants of mirror-mode structures created upstream of the points of observation. Those indications include the following: (1) For the few holes for which proton of alpha-particle pressure could be measured inside the hole, the ion thermal pressure was always greater than in the plasma adjacent to the holes. (2) The plasma surrounding many of the holes was marginally stable for the mirror mode, while the plasma environment of all holes was significantly closer to mirror instability than was the average solar wind. (3) The plasma containing trains of closely spaced holes was closer to mirror instability than was the plasma containing isolated holes. (4) The near-hole plasma had much higher ion beta (ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) than did the average solar wind. (5) Near the holes, T(sub perp)/T(sub parallel) tended to be either greater than 1 or larger than in the average wind. (6) The proton and alpha-particle distribution functions measured inside the holes occasionally exhibited the flattened phase-space-density contoures in nu(sub perp)/nu(sub parallel) space found in some numerical simulations of the mirror instability.

Description: Clear-sky albedos and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) determined from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanners on board the earth radiation budget satellite and NOAA-9 spacecraft were analyzed for three target sites for the months February 1985-January 1987. The targets were oceans, deserts, and a multiscene site covering half the earth's surface. Year-to-year ratios of the monthly albedos and OLR were within the 0.98-1.02 range with a standard error of about 1%. The data indicate that ERBE scanner measurements were stable to within a few tenths of a percent for the two-year periods.

Description: A set of system simulations has been performed to evaluate candidate scanner designs for an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) for the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the late 1990s. Five different instruments are considered: (1) the Active Cavity Array (ACA), (2) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System-Instrument (CERES-I), (3) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR), (4) the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Cross-Track Scanner (ERBE), and (5) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner (N7). Errors in instantaneous, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) satellite flux estimates are assumed to arise from two measurement problems: the sampling of space over a given geographic domain, and sampling in angle about a given spatial location. When angular sampling errors vanish due to the application of correct angular dependence models (ADMs) during inversion, the accuracy of each scanner design is determined by the instrument's ability to map the TOA radiance field in a uniform manner. In this regard, the instruments containing a cross-track scanning component (CERES-I and ERBE) do best. As errors in ADMs are encountered, cross-track instruments incur angular sampling errors more rapidly than biaxial instruments (N7, ACA, and CSR) and eventually overtake the biaxial designs in their total error amounts. A latitude bias (north-south error gradient) in the ADM error of cross-track instruments also exists. This would be objectionable when ADM errors are systematic over large areas of the globe. For instantaneous errors, however, cross-track scanners outperform biaxial or conical scanners for 2.5 deg latitude x 2.5 deg longitude target areas, providing that the ADM error is less than or equal to 30%. A key issue is the amount of systematic ADM error (departures from the mean models) that is present at the 2.5 deg resolution of the ERBE target areas. If this error is less than 30%, then the CERES-I, ERBE, and CSR, in order of increasing error, provide the most accurate instantaneous flux estimates, within 2-3 W/sq m of each other in reflected shortwave flux. The magnitude of this error is near the 10 W/sq m accuracy requirement of the user community. Longwave flux errors have been found to have the same space and time characteristics as errors in shortwave radiation, but only about 25% as large.

Description: This paper briefly reviews several single-frequency rain profiling methods for an airborne or spaceborne radar. The authors describe the different methods from a unified point of view starting from the basic differential equation. This facilitates the comparisons between the methods and also provides a better understanding of the physical and mathematical basis of the methods. The application of several methods to airborne radar data taken during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment is shown. Finally, the authors consider a hybrid method that provides a smooth transition between the Hitschfeld-Bordan method, which performs well at low attenuations, and the surface reference method, for which the relative error decreases with increasing path attenuation.

Description: An analysis of a spontaneous sudden stratospheric warming that occurred during a 2-year integration of the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Atmospheric Simulation Model is presented. The simulated warming resembles observed 'wave 1' warmings in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and provides an opportunity to investigate the radiative and dynamical processes occurring during the warming event. Isentropic analysis of potential vorticity sources and sinks indicates that dynamically induced departures from radiative equilibrium play an important role in the warming event. Enhanced radiative cooling associated with a series of upper stratospheric warm pools leads to radiative dampening within the polar vortex. Within the 'surf zone' large-scale radiative cooling leads to diabatic advection of high potential vorticity air from aloft. Lagrangian area diagnostics of the simulated warming agree well with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) analyses. Dynamical mixing is shown to account for the majority of the decrease in the size of the polar vortex during the simulated warming. An investigation of the nonlinear deformation of material lines that are initially coincident with diagnosed potential vorticity isopleths is conducted to clarify the relationship between the Lagrangian area diagnostics and potential vorticity advection during wave breaking events.

Description: Calculations of the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II O3 and NO2 data between 1984 and 1991 are presented and have been investigated by using a two-dimensional model. The isentropic 2D model is a fully interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical model in which the eddy fluxes of chemical species are calculated in a consistent manner. The QBO in the model has been forced by relaxing the equatorial zonal wind toward the observations at Singapore allowing the comparison of the model with observations from specific years. The model reproduces the observed vertical structure of the equatorial ozone anomaly with the well-known transition from dynamical to photochemical control at around 28km. The model also reproduces the observed vertical structure of the SAGE II observed NO2 anomaly. The model studies have shown that it is the QBO modulation of NO2 which the main cause of QBO signal in O3 above 30 km. The model also reproduces the observed latitudinal structure of the QBO signals in O3 and NO2. Due to the differing horizontal distribution of O3 and NO(y) the ozone signal shows a distinct phase change in the subtropics whereas the NO2 anomaly gives a broader signal.

Description: A generalized form of the second-order van Leer transport scheme is derived. Several constraints to the implied subgrid linear distribution are discussed. A very simple positive-definite scheme can be derived directly from the generalized form. A monotonic version of the scheme is applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) for the moisture transport calculations, replacing the original fourth-order center-differencing scheme. Comparisons with the original scheme are made in idealized tests as well as in a summer climate simulation using the full GLA GCM. A distinct advantage of the monotonic transport scheme is its ability to transport sharp gradients without producing spurious oscillations and unphysical negative mixing ratio. Within the context of low-resolution climate simulations, the aforementioned characteristics are demonstrated to be very beneficial in regions where cumulus convection is active. The model-produced precipitation pattern using the new transport scheme is more coherently organized both in time and in space, and correlates better with observations. The side effect of the filling algorithm used in conjunction with the original scheme is also discussed, in the context of idealized tests. The major weakness of the proposed transport scheme with a local monotonic constraint is its substantial implicit diffusion at low resolution. Alternative constraints are discussed to counter this problem.

Description: A model is presented to compute the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation length scale l(sub epsilon) in a stably stratified shear flow. The expression for l(sub epsilon) is derived from solving the spectral balance equation for the turbulent kinetic energy. The buoyancy spectrum entering such equation is constructed using a Lagrangian timescale with modifications due to stratification. The final result for l(sub epsilon) is given in algebraic form as a function of the Froude number Fr and the flux Richardson number R(sub f), l(sub epsilon) = l(sub epsilon)(Fr, R(sub f). The model predicts that for R(sub f) less than R(sub fc), l(sub epsilon) decreases with stratification. An attractive feature of the present model is that it encompasses, as special cases, some seemingly different models for l(sub epsilon) that have been proposed in the past by Deardorff, Hunt et al., Weinstock, and Canuto and Minotti. An alternative form for the dissipation rate epsilon is also discussed that may be useful when one uses a prognostic equation for the heat flux. The present model is applicable to subgrid-scale models, which are needed in large eddy simulations (LES), as well as to ensemble average models. The model is applied to predict the variation of l(sub epsilon) with height z in the planetary boundary layer. The resulting l(sub epsilon) versus z profile reproduces very closely the nonmonotonic profile of l(sub epsilon) exhibited by many LES calculations, beginning with the one by Deardorff in 1974.

Description: Two stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993 are described using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyses, calculated potential vorticity (PV) and diabetic heating, and N2O observed by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region, while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Description: In this paper, preliminary results in using orthogonal and continuous wavelet transform (WT) to identify period doubling and time-frequency localization in both synthetic and real data are presented. First, the Haar WT is applied to synthetic time series derived from a simple nonlinear dynamical system- a first-order quadratic difference equation. Second, the complex Morlet WT is used to study the time-frequency localization of tropical convection based on a high-resolution Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite infrared (IR) radiance dataset. The Haar WT of the synthetic time series indicates the presence and distinct separation of multiple frequencies in a period-doubling sequence. The period-doubling process generates a multiplicity of intermediate frequencies, which are manifested in the nonuniformity in time with respect to the phase of oscillations in the lower frequencies. Wavelet transform also enables the detection of extremely weak signals in high-order subharmonics resulting from the period-doubling bifurcations. These signals are either undetected or considered statistically insignificant by traditional Fourier analysis. The Morlet WT of the IR radiance dataset indicates the presence of multiple timescales, which are localized in both frequency and time. There are two regimes in the variation of IR radiance, corresponding to the wet and dry periods. Multiple timescales, ranging from semidiurnal, diurnal, synoptic, to intraseasonal with embedding structures, are active in the wet regime. In particular, synoptic variability is more prominent during the wet phase of an intensive intraseasonal cycle. These are not only consistent with, but also show more details than, previous findings by using other techniques. The phase-locking relationships among the oscillations with different time-scales suggest that both synoptic and intraseasonal variations may be mixed oscillations due to the interaction of self-excited oscillations in the tropical atmosphere and external forcings such as annual and diurnal solar radiation variations. Both examples show that WT is a powerful tool for analysis of phenomena involving multiscale interactions that exhibit localization in both frequency and time. A discussion on the caveats in the use of WT in geophysical data analysis is also presented.

Description: Observations of upper tropospheric relative humidity obtained from Raman lidar and Cross-chain Loran Atmospheric Sounding System (CLASS) sonde instruments obtained during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus-II field program are compared with satellite measurements from the GOES 6.7-micron channel. The 6.7-micron channel is sensitive to water vapor integrated over a broad layer in the upper troposphere (roughly 500-200 mbar). Instantaneous measurements of the upper tropospheric relative humidity from GOES are shown to agree to within roughly 6% of the nearest lidar observations and 9% of the nearest CLASS observations. The CLASS data exhibit a slight yet systematic dry bias in upper tropospheric humidity, a result which is consistent with previous radiosonde intercomparisons. Temporal stratification of the CLASS data indicates that the magnitude of the bias is dependent upon the time of day, suggesting a solar heating effect in the radiosonde sensor. Using CLASS profiles, the impact of vertical variability in relative humidity upon the GOES upper tropospheric humidity measurements is also examined. The upper tropospheric humidity inferred from the GOES 6.7-micron channel is demonstrated to agree to within roughly 5% of the relative humidity vertically averaged over the depth of atmosphere to which the 6.7-micron channel is sensitive. The results of this study encourage the use of satellite measurements in the 6.7-micron channel to quantitatively describe the distribution and temporal evolution of the upper tropospheric humidity field.

Description: Published estimates of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from satellite-measured microwave radiation show little agreement, even about the relative magnitudes of LWP in the tropics and midlatitudes. To understand these differences and to obtain more reliable estimate, optical and microwave LWP retrieval methods are compared using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) data. Errors in microwave LWP retrieval associated with uncertainties in surface, atmosphere, and cloud properties are assessed. Sea surface temperature may not produce great LWP errors, if accurate contemporaneous measurements are used in the retrieval. An uncertainty of estimated near-surface wind speed as high as 2 m/s produces uncertainty in LWP of about 5 mg/sq cm. Cloud liquid water temperature has only a small effect on LWP retrievals (rms errors less than 2 mg/sq cm), if errors in the temperature are less than 5 C; however, such errors can produce spurious variations of LWP with latitude and season. Errors in atmospheric column water vapor (CWV) are strongly coupled with errors in LWP (for some retrieval methods) causing errors as large as 30 mg/sq cm. Because microwave radiation is much less sensitive to clouds with small LWP (less than 7 mg/sq cm) than visible wavelength radiation, the microwave results are very sensitive to the process used to separate clear and cloudy conditions. Different cloud detection sensitivities in different microwave retrieval methods bias estimated LWP values. Comparing ISCCP and SSM/I LWPs, we find that the two estimated values are consistent in global, zonal, and regional means for warm, nonprecipitating clouds, which have average LWP values of about 5 mg/sq cm and occur much more frequently than precipitating clouds. Ice water path (IWP) can be roughly estimated from the differences between ISCCP total water path and SSM/I LWP for cold, nonprecipitating clouds. IWP in the winter hemisphere is about 3 times the LWP but only half the LWP in the summer hemisphere. Precipitating clouds contribute significantly to monthly, zonal mean LWP values determined from microwave, especially in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), because they have almost 10 times the liquid water (cloud plus precipitation) of nonprecipitating clouds on average. There are significant differences among microwave LWP estimates associated with the treatment of precipitating clouds.

Description: Cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is the radiative impact of clouds on the Earth's radiation budget. This study examines the diurnal variations of CRF using the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) monthly hourly flux data and the flux data derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model radiation code. The results for the months of April, July, and October 1985 and January 1986 are analyzed. We found that, in general, two data sets agreed. For longwave (LW) CRF the diurnal range over land is generally greater than that observed over oceans. For the 4-month averages the ERBE values are 15.8 W/sq m and 6.8 W/sq m for land and ocean, respectively, compared with the ISCCP calculated values of 18.4 W/sq m and 8.0 W/sq m, respectively. The land/ocean contrast is largely associated with changes in cloud amount and the temperature difference between surface and cloud top. It would be more important to note that the clear-sky flux (i.e., surface temperature) variabilities are shown to be a major contributor to the large variabilities over land. The maximum diurnal range is found to be in the summer hemisphere, and the minimum values in the winter hemisphere. It is also shown that the daytime maximum and the nighttime minimum are seen over large portions of land, whereas they occur at any local hour over most oceans. For shortwave (SW) CRF the daytime maximum values are about twice as large as monthly averages, and their highest frequency occurs at local noon, indicating that solar insolation is a primary factor for the diurnal variation of SW CRF. However, the comparison of the ERBE data with the ISCCP results demonstrated that the largest differences in the diurnal range and monthly mean of LW CRF were associated with tropical convergence zones, where clear-sky fluxes could be easily biased by persistent cloudiness and the inadequate treatment of the atmospheric water vapor.

Description: Temperature variations in the stratosphere from 1979 to 1992 are investigated using 365-day running mean of the National Meteorological Center gridded analysis temperature data. Significant variations are seen at all levels between 70 and 1 mbar. The middle stratosphere shows temperature peaks during 1982 and 1983. The upper stratosphere has significant temperature declines between 1 and 10 mbar from 1981 to 1984. Temperatures at all levels recover to near their prior values after 1984, with the 5-mbar temperatures requiring the greatest time to fully recover. The temperature declines at 1 mbar occur in both hemispheres, over all longitudes, and in every month of the year. The decreases are largest in the middle latitudes and the polar regions and during the fall and the winter months. Such temperature variations, which appear to be of natural origin, must be taken into consideration when searching for temperature trends caused by the increase of CO2 or other greenhouse gases which affect the radiative balance of the Earth-atmosphere system or stratospheric ozone.

Description: During the international campaign of June 1991, the active region AR 6659 produced six very large, long-duration flares (X10/12) during its passage across the solar disk. We present the characteristics of four of them (June 4, 6, 9, 15). Precise measurements of the spot motions from Debrecen and Tokyo white-light pictures are used to understand the fragmentation of the main sunspot group with time. This fragmentation leads to a continuous restructuring of the magnetic field pattern while rapid changes are evidenced due to fast new flux emergence (magnetograms of Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Huairou). The first process leads to a shearing of the field lines along which there is energy storage; the second one is the trigger which causes the release of energy by creating a complex topology. We conjecture that these two processes with different time scales are relevant to the production of flares.

Description: This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as clearly correlated with well-known features of the large-scale circulation.

Description: In this paper we describe fundamental properties of an 'off-line' three-dimensional transport model, that is, a model which uses prescribed rather than predicted winds. The model is currently used primarily for studying problems of the middle atmosphere because we have not (yet) incorporated a formulation for the convective transport of trace species, a prerequisite for many tropospheric problems. The off-line model is simpler and less expensive than a model which predicts the wind and mass evolution (an 'on-line' model), but it is more complex than the two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged transport models often used in the study of chemistry and transport in the middle atmosphere. It thus serves as a model of intermediate complexity and can fill a useful niche for the study of transport and chemistry. We compare simulations of four tracers, released in the lower stratosphere, in both the on- and off-line models to document the difference resulting from differences in modeling the same problem with this intermediate model. These differences identify the price to be paid in going to a cheaper and simpler calculation. The off-line model transports a tracer in three dimensions. For this reason, it requires fewer approximations than 2-D transport model, which must parameterize the effects of mixing by transient and zonally asymmetric wind features. We compare simulations of the off-line model with simulations of a 2-D model for two problems. First, we compare 2-D and three-dimensional (3-D) models by simulating the emission of an NO(x)-like tracer by a fleet of high-speed aircraft. The off-line model is then used to simulate the transport of C-14 and to contrast its simulation properties to that of the host of 2-D models which participated in an identical simulation in a recent NASA model intercomparison. The off-line model is shown to be somewhat sensitive to the sampling strategy for off-line winds. Simulations with daily averaged winds are in very good qualitative agreement but are less diffusive than when driven with instantaneous winds sampled at half-hour intervals. Simulations with the off-line and 2-D models are quite similar in the middle and upper stratosphere but behave quite differently in the lower stratosphere, where the 3-D model has a substantially more vigorous circulation. The off-line model is quite realistic in its simulation of C-14. While there are still systematic differences between the 3-D calculation and the observations, the differences seem to be substantially reduced when compared with the body of 2-D simulations documented in the above mentioned NASA intercomparison, particularly at 31 deg N.

Description: SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) echoes from the sea have previously been shown to be the result of rain and winds produced by convective stroms; rain damps the surface waves and causes ech-free holes, while the diverging winds associated with downdraft generate waves and associated echoes surrounding the holes. Gust fronts are also evident. Such a snapshot from 8 July 1978 has been examined in conjunction with ground-based radar. This leads to the conclusion that the SAR storm footprints resulted from storm processes that occurred up to an hour or more prior to the snapshot. A sequence of events is discerned from the SAR imagery in which new cell growth is triggered in between the converging outflows of two preexisting cells. In turn, the new cell generates a mini-squall line along its expanding gust front. While such phenomena are well known over land, the spaceborne SAR now allows important inferences to be made about the nature and frequency of convective storms over the oceans. The storm effects on the sea have significant implications for spaceborne wind scatterometry and rainfall measurements. Some of the findings herein remain speculative because of the great distance to the Miami weather radar-the only source of corroborative data.

Description: Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: Climatologies of convective precipitation were derived from passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager using a scattering-based algorithm of Adler et al. Data were aggregated over periods of 3-5 months using data from 4 to 5 years. Data were also stratified by satellite overpass times (primarily 06 00 and 18 00 local time). Four regions (Mexico, Amazonia, western Africa, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (TOGA COARE area) were chosen for their meteorological interest and relative paucity of conventional observations. The strong diurnal variation over Mexico and the southern United States was the most striking aspect of the climatologies. Pronounced morning maxima occured offshore, often in concativities in the coastline, the result of the increased convergence caused by the coastline shape. The major feature of the evening rain field was a linear-shaped maximum along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Topography exerted a strong control on the rainfall in other areas, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras border and in Guatemala, where maxima in excess of 700 mm/month were located adjacent to local maxima in terrain. The correlation between the estimates and monthly gage data over the southern United States was low (0.45), due mainly to poor temporal sampling in any month and an inadequate sampling of the diurnal cycle. Over the Amazon Basin the differences in morning versus evening rainfall were complex, with an alternating series of morning/evening maxima aligned southwest to northeast from the Andes to the northeast Brazilian coast. A real extent of rainfall in Amazonia was slightly higher in the evening, but a maximum in morning precipitation was found on the Amazon River just east of Manaus. Precipitation over the water in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of Brazil was more pronounced in the morning, and a pronounced land-/sea-breeze circulation was found along the northeast coast of Brazil. Inter-comparison of four years revealed 1992 to be the driest over Amazonia, with about a 23% decrease in mean rate compared to the 4-year mean estimated rain rate.

Description: Interplanetary disturbances characterized by plasma that is more turbulence and/or moves faster than the background solar wind are readily defected as transients in Doppler scintillation measurements of the near-Sun solar wind. Systematic analysis of over 23,000 hours of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler measurements obtained inside 0.5 AU during 1979-1987 have made it possible for the first time to investigate the frequency of occurrence of Doppler scintillation transients under solar minimum conditions and to determine its dependence on solar cycle. On the basis of a total of 142 transients, Doppler scintillation transient rates vary from a high of 0.22 in 1979 (one every 4.6 days) to a low of 0.077 transients/d in 1986 (one every 13 days), a decrease by almost a factor of 3 from solar maximum to solar minimum. This solar cycle variation, the strongest yet of any solar wind Doppler scintillation property, is highly correlated with both solar activity characterized by sunspot number and the coronal mass ejection rates deduced from Solswind and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph observations. These results indicate that coronal mass ejections and Doppler scintillation transients are closely related not just during solar maximum, as occasional individual comparisons have shown in the past, but throughout the entire solar cycle, and strengthen the notation that the Doppler scintillation and optical transients are different manifestations of the same physical phenomenon. The magnitudes of the transients, as described by the ratio of peak to pretransient scintillation levels (EF for enhancement factor), and their distribution iwth heliocentric distance also vary with solar cycle. While EF tends to diminish with increasing heliocentric distance during high solar activity, it is more evenly distributed during low solar activity. EF is also lower during solar minimum, as 13% of the transients during solar maximum have values exceeding 23, the highest EF observed during solar minimum. These results are consistent with the fact that occasional major fast-moving interplanetary shocks that are observed during solar maximum are very rate during solar minimum.

Description: It has recently been reported that the total radiative emission variations from solar type stars exceeds the currently solar constant variations (from spacecraft over the last decade) by a factor near 4. Aside from other remote alternatives, this suggests three clear possibilities: (1) the Sun may undergo irradiance variations several times larger than any we have seen; (2) our Sun is highly unusual with regard to its radiative output; or (3) our terrestrial position in the heliosphere provides a special vantage point which reduces the observed solar irradiance variations. We investigate the last possibility by considering the influence of observer latitude upon calculated irradiance variations using a simple model for emission from solar contrast features. We consider modeled sunspots, faculae, and network structures. As the latitude angle of the observer rises relative to the heliographic equator, sunspot deficit contributions diminish and facular plus network contributions escalate. We find that the observing latitude can influence the irradiance variations by a factor near 6. When we integrate the irradiance variations, over the celestial sphere, they average to 3 times the terrestrial effect, suggesting that the solar cycle luminosity variations are proportionally, 3 times larger than the solar constant variations. Thus we suggest the Sun's luminosity output varies even more strongly with the solar cycle than is apparent in the solar constant variations. The influence of the observer viewing angle relative to stellar spin axis, studied here, may be possible to investigate with a thorough statistical examination of other type stars. Additionally, the rotational modulation due to active regions (as a function of observer viewing angle) may also be a valuable are for future investigation.

Description: For more than 90 years, solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance modeling has progressed from empirical blackbody radiation formulations, through fudge factors, to typically measured irradiances and reference spectra was well as time-dependent empirical models representing continua and line emissions. A summary of recent EUV measurements by five rockets and three satellites during the 1980s is presented along with the major modeling efforts. The most significant reference spectra are reviewed and threee independently derived empirical models are described. These include Hinteregger's 1981 SERF1, Nusinov's 1984 two-component, and Tobiska's 1990/1991/SERF2/EUV91 flux models. They each provide daily full-disk broad spectrum flux values from 2 to 105 nm at 1 AU. All the models depend to one degree or another on the long time series of the Atmosphere Explorer E (AE-E) EUV database. Each model uses ground- and/or space-based proxies to create emissions from solar atmospheric regions. Future challenges in EUV modeling are summarized including the basic requirements of models, the task of incorporating new observations and theory into the models, the task of comparing models with solar-terrestrial data sets, and long-term goals and modeling objectives. By the late 1990s, empirical models will potentially be improved through the use of proposed solar EUV irradiance measurements and images at selected wavelengths that will greatly enhance modeling and predictive capabilities.

Description: Ample evidence supports the significance of the high-latitude ionospheric contribution to magnetospheric plasma. Assuming flux conservation along a flux tube, the upward field-aligned ion flows observed in the magnetosphere require high-latitude ionospheric field-aligned ion upflows of the order of 10(exp 8) to 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s. Since radar and satellite observations of high-latitude F region flows at times exceed this flux requirement by an order of magnitude, the thermal ionospheric upflows are not simply the ionospheric response to a magnetospheric flux requirement. Several ionospheric ion upflow mechanisms have been proposed, but simulations based on fluid theory do not reproduce all the observed features of ionospheric ion upflows. Certain asymmetries in the statistical morphology of high-latitude F region ion upflows suggest that the ion upflows may be generated by ion-neutral frictional heating. We developed a single-component (O(+)), time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of the high-latitude F region response to frictional heating in which the neutral exobase is a discontinuous boundary between fully collisional and collisionless plasmas. The concept of a discontinuous neutreal exobase and the assumption of a constant and uniform polarization electric field reduce the ion velocity distribution function, from which we can compute the ion density, parallel velocity, parallel and perpendicular temperature, and parallel flux. Using our model, we simulated the response of a convecting flux tube between 500 km and 2500 km to various frictional heating inputs; the results were both qualitatively and quantitatively different from fluid model results, which may indicate an inadequacy of the fluid theory approach. The gyro-kinetic frictional heating model responses to the various simulations were qualitatively similar: (1) initial perturbations of all the modeled parameters propagated rapidly up the flux tube, (2) transient values of the ion parallel velocity, temperature, and flux exceeded 3 km/s, 2 x 10(exp 4) K, and 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s, respectively, (3) a second transient regime developed wherein the parallel temperature drops to very low values (a few hundred Kelvins), and (4) well after heating ceased, large parallel temperatures and large downward parallel velocities and fluxes developed as the flux tube slowly returned to diffusive equilibrium. The ion velocity distributions during the simulation are often non-Maxwellian and are sometimes composed of two distinct ion populations.

Description: The absolute rate constant for the reaction O((3)P) + HOBr has been measured between T = 233K and 423K using the discharge-flow kinetic technique coupled to mass spectrometric detection. The value of the rate coefficient at room temperature is (2.5 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -11)cu cm/molecule/s and the derived Arrhenius expression is (1.4 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -10) exp((-430 +/- 260)/T)cu cm/molecule/s. From these rate data the atmospheric lifetime of HOBr with respect to reaction with O((3)P) is about 0.6h at z = 25 km which is comparable to the photolysis lifetime based on recent measurements of the UV cross section for HOBr. Implications for HOBr loss in the stratosphere have been tested using a 1D photochemical box model. With the inclusion of the rate parameters and products for the O + HOBr reaction, calculated concentration profiles of BrO increase by up to 33% around z = 35 km. This result indicates that the inclusion of the O + HOBr reaction in global atmospheric chemistry models may have an impact on bromine partitioning in the middle atmosphere.

Description: The meteorological satellite program began in the United States as the result of the actions taken by a very small but dedicated group of people from the late 1940s to 1960. This paper provides firsthand accounts by two of these dedicated individuals. Their remarks provide an insight into the trials and tribulations they and the program encountered during these very early years. Those now active in the program, many of whom do not recall this time, might appreciate the effort of these pioneers and the legacy they left for us.

Description: Enhanced fluxes of suprathermal electrons are commonly observed upstream of corotating forward and reverse shocks in the solar wind at heliocentric distances beyond approximately 2 AU by the Los Alamos plasma experiment on Ulysses. The average duration of these events, which are most intense immediately upstream from the shocks and which fade with increasing distance from them, is approximately 2.4 days near 5 AU. These events are caused by the leakage of shock-heated electrons into the upstream region. The upstream regions of these shocks face back toward the Sun along the interplanetary magnetic field, so these leaked electrons commonly counterstream relative to the normal solar wind electron heat flux. The observations suggest that conservation of magnetic moment and scattering typically limit the sunward propagation of these electrons as beams to field-aligned distances of approximately 15 AU. Although it seems unlikely that these shock-associated events are an important source of counterstreaming events near 1 AU, remnants of the backstreaming beams may contribute importantly to the diffuse solar wind halo electron population there.

Description: In May, 1993, the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) ceased to be seen by the Ulysses spacecraft at a heliocentric latitude of approximately 30 deg S and distance of 4.7 AU. The disappearance of the HCS coincided with the solar wind speed remaining greater than 560 km/s and with the disappearance of one of four interaction regions previously seen on each solar rotation. The heliographic latitude of the disappearance of the HCS at Ulysses was 11 deg equatorward of the latitude of the magnetic neutral sheet computed at the source surface at 2.5 solar radii, and it occurred a half year earlier than predicted on the basis of the persistance of the time profile of the neutral sheet tilt from one solar cycle to the next.

Description: The unique vantage point of the Ulysses spacecraft throughout 1992 and the beginning of 1993, at a close to constant heliocentric distance of about 5 AU and a slowly varying heliographic latitude from 5 deg to 30 deg south is used to describe and discuss the evolution of the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field during the declining phase of the solar cycle. From the end of 1990 to the beginning of 1992 the sector structure changed from a four sector to a two sector structure, but remained constant in solar longitude. From about June-July 1992, the structure, matching the evolution in the computed coronal magnetic fields, drifted eastwards, with a recurrence period of about 28 days. This result may indicate a slower rotation rate for the dipolar component of the solar magnetic field which becomes dominant about this time in the solar cycle.

Description: Near-ecliptic solar wind observations by Ulysses on its way to the polar regions of the Sun, compared with those from IMP 8 at 1 AU, showed that high-speed streams decay and broaden with heliocentric distance from IMP 8 to Ulysses, as expected. In July 1992 while traveling south at approximately 13 deg S and 5.3 AU, Ulysses encountered a recurrent high-speed stream, that may also have been observed at IMP 8. The stream has been observed a total of 14 times, once in each solar rotation through June 1993 at approximately 34 deg S. The source of the high-speed stream is an equatorward extension of the south polar coronal hole. From July 1992 through June 1993, averages of solar wind peak speed increased while density decreased with heliographic latitude. Both the stream and a low-speed, high-density flow, presumably associated with the heliomagnetic (coronal) streamer belt encircling the heliomagnetic equator, crossed Ulysses with the solar rotation period until April 1993 when the spacecraft was at approximately 29 deg S heliographic latitude. After this time, as the spacecraft climbed to higher latitudes, the central portion of the streamer belt with lowest speed and highest density disappeared. Therefore, at its maximum inclination, the belt was tilted at approximately 29 deg to the heliographic equator at this point in the solar cycle.

Description: The Experimental Cloud Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) was initiated to obtain statistics on cloud-base height, extinction, optical depth, cloud brokenness, and surface fluxes. Two observational phases have taken place, in October-December 1989 and April-July 1991, with intensive 30-day periods being selected within the two time intervals. Data are being archived at NASA Langley Research Center and, once there, are readily available to the international scientific community. This article describes the scale of the study in terms of its international involvement and in the range of data being recorded. Lidar observations of cloud height and backscatter coefficient have been taken from a number of ground-based stations spread around the globe. Solar shortwave and infrared longwave fluxes and infrared beam radiance have been measured at the surface wherever possible. The observations have been tailored to occur around the overpass times of the NOAA weather satellites. This article describes in some detail the various retrieval methods used to obtain results on cloud-base height, extinction coefficient, and infrared emittance, paying particular attention to the uncertainties involved.

Description: A diagnostic analysis of the VVP (volume velocity processing) retrieval method is presented, with emphasis on understanding the technique as a linear, multivariate regression. Similarities and differences to the velocity-azimuth display and extended velocity-azimuth display retrieval techniques are discussed, using this framework. Conventional regression diagnostics are then employed to quantitatively determine situations in which the VVP technique is likely to fail. An algorithm for preparation and analysis of a robust VVP retrieval is developed and applied to synthetic and actual datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution. A fundamental (but quantifiable) limitation to some forms of VVP analysis is inadequate sampling dispersion in the n space of the multivariate regression, manifest as a collinearity between the basis functions of some fitted parameters. Such collinearity may be present either in the definition of these basis functions or in their realization in a given sampling configuration. This nonorthogonality may cause numerical instability, variance inflation (decrease in robustness), and increased sensitivity to bias from neglected wind components. It is shown that these effects prevent the application of VVP to small azimuthal sectors of data. The behavior of the VVP regression is further diagnosed over a wide range of sampling constraints, and reasonable sector limits are established.

Description: Analysis of the version 16 Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) CH4 data shows that this long-lived trace gas is well correlated with potential vorticity (PV) computed from National Meteorological Center balanced winds. Analyzing late September and October 1992 data, we show that very low CH4 values are confined to the interior of a vortex edge defined by the maximum gradient in PV. The CH4 and HF time tendency is used to estimate the descent rate in the Antarctic vortex. After removing a component of the trend correlated with the HALOE sampling pattern, we compute the lower stratosphere vertical descent rates and net heaing rates in the spring Antarctic vortex. Our computations of the spring Antarctic vortex heating rates give -0.5 to -0.1 K/day. Over the winter season, the overall lower stratospheric descent rate averages about 1.8-1.5 km/month. These computations are in line with radiative transfer estimates of the heating and descent rate. The HALOE data thus appear to be consistent with the picture of an isolated lower stratospheric Antarctic vortex.

Description: Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Description: Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

Description: Compressible MHD simulations in one dimension with three-dimensional vectors are used to investigate a number of processes relevant to problems in interplanetary physics. The simulations indicate that a large-amplitude nonequilibrium (e.g., linearly polarized) Alfvenic wave, which always starts with small relative fluctuations in the magnitude B of the magnetic field, typically evolves to flatten the magnetic profile in most regions. Under a wide variety of conditions B and the density rho become anticorrelated on average. If the mean magnetic field is allowed to decrease in time, the point where the transverse magnetic fluctuation amplitude delta B(sub T) is greater than the mean field B(sub 0) is not special, and large values of delta B(sub T)/B(sub 0) do not cause the compressive thermal energy to increase remarkably or the wave energy to dissipate at an unusually high rate. Nor does the 'backscatter' of the waves that occurs when the sound speed is less than the Alfven speed result, in itself, in substantial energy dissipation, but rather primarily in a phase change between the magnetic and velocity fields. For isolated wave packets the backscatter does not occur for any of the parameters examined; an initial radiation of acoustic waves away from the packet establishes a stable traveling structure. Thus these simulations, although greatly idealized compared to reality, suggest a picture in which the interplanetary fluctuations should have small deltaB and increasingly quasi-pressure balanced compressive fluctuations, as observed, and in which the dissipation and 'saturation' at delta B(sub T)/B(sub 0) approximately = 1 required by some theories of wave acceleration of the solar wind do not occur. The simulations also provide simple ways to understand the processes of nonlinear steepening and backscattering of Alfven waves and demonstrate the existence of previously unreported types of quasi-steady MHD states.

Description: During the late declining phase of the solar cycle, the tilt of the solar magnetic dipole with respect to the Sun's rotation axis leads to large-scale organization of the solar wind, such that alternating regions of high- and low-speed solar wind are observed in the ecliptic plane. In this paper, we use Doppler scintillation measurements to investigate mass flux of these two types of solar wind in the ecliptic plane and inside 0.3 AU, where in situ measurements have not been possible. To the extent that Doppler scintillation reflects mass flux, we find that mass flux in high-speed streams: (1) is lower (by a factor of approximately 2.2) than the mass flux of the average solar wind in the heliocentric distance range of 0.3-0.5 AU; (2) is lower still (by as much as a factor of about 4) than the mass flux of the slow solar wind associated with the streamer belt; and (3) appears to grow with heliocentric distance. These Doppler scintillation results are consistent with the equator to pole decrease in mass flux observed in earlier spectral broadening measurements, and with trends and differences between high- and low-speed solar wind observed by in situ measurements in the range of 0.3-0.1 AU. The mass flux results suggest that the solar wind flow in high-speed streams is convergent towards the ecliptic near the Sun, becoming less convergent and approaching radial with increasing heliocentric distance beyond 0.3 AU. The variability of mass flux observed within equatorial and polar high-speed streams close to the Sun is strikingly low. This low variability implies that, as Ulysses currently ascends to higher latitudes and spends more time in the south polar high-speed stream after crossing the heliocentric current sheet, it can expect to observe a marked decrease in variations of both mass flux and solar wind speed, a trend that appears to have started already.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of local vs remote control on cloud radiative forcing using a cumulus ensemble model. It is found that cloud and surface radiation forcings are much more sensitive to the mean vertical motion assoicated with large scale tropical circulation than to the local SST (sea surface temperature). When the local SST is increased with the mean vertical motion held constant, increased surface latent and sensible heat flux associated with enhanced moisture recycling is found to be the primary mechanism for cooling the ocean surface. Large changes in surface shortwave fluxes are related to changes in cloudiness induced by changes in the large scale circulation. These results are consistent with a number of earlier empirical studies, which raised concerns regarding the validity of the cirrus-thermostat hypothesis (Ramanathan and Collins, 1991). It is argued that for a better understanding of cloud feedback, both local and remote controls need to be considered and that a cumulus ensemble model is a powerful tool that should be explored for such purpose.

Description: The probability of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) occurrence in the Antarctic and Arctic has been estimated using Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II aerosol extinction data from 1978 to 1989. Antarctic PSCs are typically observed by SAM II from mid-May to early November, with a maximum zonal average probability of about 0.6 at 18-20 km in August. The typical Arctic PSC season extends only from late November to early March, with a peak zonal average probability of about 0.1 in early February at 20-22 km. There is considerable year-to-year variability in Arctic PSC sightings because of changes in the dynamics of the northern polar vortex. Year-to-year variability in Antarctic sightings is most prominent in the number of late season clouds. Maximum PSC sighting probabilities in both polar regions occur in the region from 90 deg W through the Greenwich meridian to 90 deg E, where temperatures are coldest on average. Arctic sighting probabilities approach zero outside this region, but clouds have been sighted in the Antarctic at all longitudes during most months. Inferred PSC formation temperatures remain constant throughout the Arctic winter and are similar to those in early Antarctic winter. PSC formation temperatures in the Antarctic drop markedly in the 15 to 20-km region by September, a pattern consistent with the irreversible loss of HNO3 and H2O vapor in sedimenting PSC particles.

Description: Highly structured Langmuir waves, also known as electron plasma oscillations, have been observed in the foreshock of Venus using the plasma wave experiment on the Galileo spacecraft during the gravity assist flyby on February 10, 1990. The Galileo wideband sampling system provides digital electric field waveform measurements at sampling rates up to 201,600 samples per second, much higher than any previous instrument of this type. The main Langmuir wave emission band occurs near the local electron plasma frequency, which was approximately 43 kHz. The Langmuir waves are observed to shift above and below the plasma frequency, sometimes by as much as 20 kHz. The shifts in frequency are closely correlated with the downstream distance from the tangent field line, implying that the shifts are controlled by the electron beam velocity. Considerable fine structure is also evident, with timescales as short as 0.15 ms, corresponding to spatial scales of a few tens of Debye lengths. The frequency spectrum often consists of beat-type waveforms, with beat frequencies ranging from 0.2 to 7 kHz, and in a few cases, isolated wave packets. The peak electric field strengths are approximately 1 mV/m. These field strengths are too small for strongly nonlinear processes to be important. The beat-type waveforms are suggestive of a parametric decay process.

Description: A one-speed Boltzmann transport theory, with diffusion approximations, is applied to study the radiative transfer properties of lightning in optically thick thunderclouds. Near-infrared (lambda = 0.7774 micrometers) photons associated with a prominent oxygen emission triplet in the lightning spectrum are considered. Transient and spatially complex lightning radiation sources are placed inside a rectangular parallelepiped thundercloud geometry and the effects of multiple scattering are studied. The cloud is assumed to be composed of a homogeneous collection of identical spherical water droplets, each droplet a nearly conservative, anisotropic scatterer. Conceptually, we treat the thundercloud like a nuclear reactor, with photons replaced by neutrons, and utilize standard one-speed neutron diffusion techniques common in nuclear reactor analyses. Valid analytic results for the intensity distribution (expanded in spherical harmonics) are obtained for regions sufficiently far from sources. Model estimates of the arrival-time delay and pulse width broadening of lightning signals radiated from within the cloud are determined and the results are in good agreement with both experimental data and previous Monte Carlo estimates. Additional model studies of this kind will be used to study the general information content of cloud top lightning radiation signatures.

Description: Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Description: The work described here makes it possible to identify anomalous wind behavior such as the nighttime meridional wind abatements that occur at F-region heights. A new analysis technique uses a simple empirical wind model to simulate measurements of 'normal' winds (as measured by the Neutral Atmosphere and Temperature Experiment (NATE) that flew on the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E)) to highlight anomalous wind measurements made by the satellite while in circular orbits at 270-290 km altitude. Our approach is based on the recognition that the 'in orbit' wind variation must show the combined effects of the diurnal wind variation as seen from the ground with the latitude variation of the satellite orbit. For the data period 77250-78035 examined thus far, the wind abatement always occurred with a corresponding pressure or temperature maximum, and was detected on 12 out of the 36 nights with data. This study has revealed that the wind abatement occur only during or shortly after increases in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, as indicated by daily radio flux measurements. In the past, nighttime wind reversals at mid-latitudes have been associated with increased geomagnetic activity. This study indicates that intensified solar EUV heating may be responsible for anomalous thermospheric nighttime winds at mid-latitudes.

Description: Five years of meteorological and hydrological data from a typical New England watershed where winter snow cover is significant were used to drive and validate two off-line land surface schemes suitable for use in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM): a baseline scheme that does not model the physics of a snowpack and therefore, neglects the insulating properties of snow cover; and a modified scheme in which a three-layer snowpack is modeled. Comparing baseline model results with validation data reveals several model deficiencies. Surface radiation temperatures could not adequately be modeled and the ground froze to unreasonable depths. Furthermore, because of ground cooling resulting from large surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere from the uninsulated surface, deeper model layers did not unfreeze until midsummer. As such, the normal hydrologic processes of runoff, ground water infiltration, and movement, etc., are compromised for a good part of the year. With the inclusion of a simple three-layer snow model into the baseline model, not only are the ground and surface radiation temperatures adequately modeled but all the features of snowpack ripening that characterize pack growth/ablation are simulated.

Description: A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Description: The irregular polygonal pattern of solar granulation is analyzed for size-shape relations using statistical crystallography. In contrast to previous work which has assumed perfectly hexagonal patterns for granulation, more realistic accounting of cell (granule) shapes reveals a broader basis for quantitative analysis. Several features emerge as noteworthy: (1) a linear correlation between number of cell-sides and neighboring shapes (called Aboav-Weaire's law); (2) a linear correlation between both average cell area and perimeter and the number of cell-sides (called Lewis's law and a perimeter law, respectively) and (3) a linear correlation between cell area and squared perimeter (called convolution index). This statistical picture of granulation is consistent with a finding of no correlation in cell shapes beyond nearest neighbors. A comparative calculation between existing model predictions taken from luminosity data and the present analysis shows substantial agreements for cell-size distributions. A model for understanding grain lifetimes is proposed which links convective times to cell shape using crystallographic results.

Description: An advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) has been developed and flown in the NASA ER-2-high-altitude aircraft for imaging various atmospheric and surface processes, primarily the internal structure of rain clouds. The AMPR is a scanning four-frequency total power microwave radiometer that is externally calibrated with high-emissivity warm and cold loads. Separate antenna systems allow the sampling of the 10.7- and 19.35-GHz channels at the same spatial resolution, while the 37.1- and 85.5-GHz channels utilize the same multifrequency feedhorn as the 19.35-GHz channel. Spatial resolutions from an aircraft altitude of 20-km range from 0.6 km at 85.5 GHz to 2.8 km at 19.35 and 10.7 GHz. All channels are sampled every 0.6 km in both along-track and cross-track directions, leading to a contiguous sampling pattern of the 85.5-GHz 3-dB beamwidth footprints, 2.3X oversampling of the 37.1-GHz data, and 4.4X oversampling of the 19.35- and 10.7-GHz data. Radiometer temperature sensitivities range from 0.2 to 0.5 C. Details of the system are described, including two different calibration systems and their effect on the data collected. Examples of oceanic rain systems are presented from Florida and the tropical west Pacific that illustrate the wide variety of cloud water, rainwater, and precipitation-size ice combinations that are observable from aircraft altitudes.

Description: Dual-frequency ranging and Doppler measurements were conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) at and around the spacecraft's first solar conjunction in 1991 August. The differential group delay time between range codes on the two downlink carrier signals at the wavelengths 13.1 and 3.6 cm, a direct measure of the total electron content between spacecraft and ground station, was used to derive the electron density distribution in the solar corona. Linear power-law representations of the coronal electron density were derived for the range of solar distances from 4 solar radii to 40 solar radii on both sides of the Sun. The corona was found to be very nearly symmetric; the radial falloff exponent being 2.54 +/- 0.05 for occultation ingress (east solar limb) and 2.42 +/- 0.05 for egress (west limb), respectively. The departure of these exponents from the inverse equare relation implies that significant solar wind acceleration is occurring within the radial range of the observations. The electron density level was found to be considerably lower than that observed during the 1988 December solar occultation of Voyager 2. Although the smoothed sunspot number R(sub z) (a standard indicator of solar activity) was almost the same in 1988 December and 1991 August, the mean electron density at 20 solar radii was found to be 1.7 +/- 0.1 x 10(exp 3)/cu cm during the Ulysses conjunction, a decline by almost a factor of 4 from the value obtained during the Voyager conjunction.

Description: A general circulation model (GCM) is used to model global lightning distributions and frequencies. Both total and cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies are modeled using parameterizations that relate the depth of convective clouds to lightning frequencies. The model's simulations of lightning distributions in time and space show good agreement with available observations. The model's annual mean climatology shows a global lightning frequency of 77 flashes per second, with cloud-to-ground lightning making up 25% of the total. The maximum lightning activity in the GCM occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with approximately 91% of all lightning occurring over continental and coastal regions.

Description: An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.

Description: This work is directed toward approximating the evolution of forecast error covariances for data assimilation. The performance of different algorithms based on simplification of the standard Kalman filter (KF) is studied. These are suboptimal schemes (SOSs) when compared to the KF, which is optimal for linear problems with known statistics. The SOSs considered here are several versions of optimal interpolation (OI), a scheme for height error variance advection, and a simplified KF in which the full height error covariance is advected. To employ a methodology for exact comparison among these schemes, a linear environment is maintained, in which a beta-plane shallow-water model linearized about a constant zonal flow is chosen for the test-bed dynamics. The results show that constructing dynamically balanced forecast error covariances rather than using conventional geostrophically balanced ones is essential for successful performance of any SOS. A posteriori initialization of SOSs to compensate for model - data imbalance sometimes results in poor performance. Instead, properly constructed dynamically balanced forecast error covariances eliminate the need for initialization. When the SOSs studied here make use of dynamically balanced forecast error covariances, the difference among their performances progresses naturally from conventional OI to the KF. In fact, the results suggest that even modest enhancements of OI, such as including an approximate dynamical equation for height error variances while leaving height error correlation structure homogeneous, go a long way toward achieving the performance of the KF, provided that dynamically balanced cross-covariances are constructed and that model errors are accounted for properly. The results indicate that such enhancements are necessary if unconventional data are to have a positive impact.

Description: One of the long-standing uncertainties in the wave-resonance theory of coronal heating is the stability of the resonance layer. The wave motions in the resonance layer produce highly localized shear flows which vary sinusoidally in time with the resonance period. This configuration is potentially susceptible to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), which can enhance small-scale structure and turbulent broadening of shear layers on relatively rapid ideal timescales. We have investigated numerically the response of a characteristic velocity profile, derived from resonance absorption models, to finite fluid perturbations comparable to photospheric fluctuations. We find that the KHI primarily should affect long (approximately greater than 6 x 10(exp 4) km) loops where higher velocity flows (M approximately greater than 0.2) exist in resonance layers of order 100 km wide. There, the Kelvin-Helmholtz growth time is comparable to or less than the resonance quarter-period, and the potentially stabilizing magnetic effects are not felt until the instability is well past the linear growth stage. Not only is the resonance layer broadened by the KHI, but also the convective energy transport out of the resonance layer is increased, thus adding to the efficiency of the wave-resonance heating process. In shorter loops, e.g., those in bright points and compact flares, the stabilization due to the magnetic field and the high resonance frequency inhibit the growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability beyond a minimal level.

Description: The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation.Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an 'evolving magnetic structure' (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape form the Sun during the solar cycle.

Description: A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Description: Radar or satellite observations of an area generate sequences of rain-rate maps. From a gridded map a histogram of rain rates can be obtained representing the relative areas occupied by rain rates of various strengths. The histograms vary with time as precipitating systems in the area evolve and decay and amounts of convective and stratiform rain in the area change. A method of decomposing the histograms into linear combinations of a few empirical distributions with time-dependent coefficients is developed, using principal component analysis as a starting point. When applied to a tropical Atlantic dataset (GATE), two distributions emerge naturally from the analysis, resembling stratiform and convective rain-rate distributions in that they peak at low and high rain rates, respectively. The two 'modes' have different timescales and only the high-rain-rate mode has a statistically significant diurnal cycle. The ability of just two modes to describe rain variabiltiy over an area can explain why methods of estimating area-averaged rain rate from the area covered by rain rates above a certain threshold are so successful.

Description: Carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) were measured in the 0.15- to 6-km portion of the troposphere over subarctic and boreal landscapes of midcontinent and eastern Canada during July - August 1990. In the mid-continent region, Arctic air entering the region was characterized by relatively uniform CO concentrations (86-108 parts per billion by volume (ppbv)) and CH4 concentrations (1729-1764 ppbv). Local biomass burning and long-range transport of CO into the area from industrial/urban sources and distant fires did frequently produce enhanced and variable concentrations. Emissions of CH4 from the Hudson Bay lowlands was the primary source for enhanced and variable concentrations, especially at altitudes of 0.15-1 km. In eastern Canada, most of the observed variability in CO and CH4 was similar in origin to the phenomena described for the midcontinent region. However, unexpectedly low concentrations of CO (51 ppbv) and CH4 (1688 ppbv) were measured in the midtroposphere on several flights. Combined meteorological and chemical data indicated that the low CO-CH4 events were the result of long-range transport of tropical Pacific marine air to subarctic latitudes.

Description: We report features of acidic gases in the troposphere from 9 to 5000 m altitude above ground over the Canadian taiga in the summer of 1990. The measurements were conducted at a 30-m meteorological tower and from the NASA Wallops Electra aircraft as part of the joint U.S.-Canadian Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B Northern Wetland Studies (NOWES). We sampled air for acidic gases using the mist chamber collector coupled with subsequent analysis using ion chromatography. At the tower we collected samples at two heights during a 13-day period, including diurnal studies. Using eddy flux and profile data, we estimated the biosphere/troposphere fluxes of nitric, formic, and acetic acids and sulfur dioxide. For the organic acids, emissions from the taiga in the afternoon hours and deposition during the predawn morning hours were observed. The flux intensities alone were however not high enough to explain the observed changes in mixing ratios. The measured deposition fluxes of nitric acid were high enough to have a significant influence on its mixing ratio in the boundary layer. On three days we measured vertical profiles of nitric, formic, and acetic acids through the lower to midtroposphere. We found that the chemical composition of the troposphere was extremely heterogenous. Pronounced layers of polluted air were readily apparent from our measurements. Local photochemical production and episodic long-range transport of trace components, originating from biomass burning and possibly industrial emissions, appear to have a strong influence on the composition of the troposphere and biosphere/troposphere fluxes of acidic gases at this site.

Description: In this study we perform an error analysis for cloud-top pressure retrieval using the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2) 15-microns CO2 channels for the two-layer case of transmissive cirrus overlying an overcast, opaque stratiform cloud. This analysis includes standard deviation and bias error due to instrument noise and the presence of two cloud layers, the lower of which is opaque. Instantaneous cloud pressure retrieval errors are determined for a range of cloud amounts (0.1-1.0) and cloud-top pressures (850-250 mb). Large cloud-top pressure retrieval errors are found to occur when a lower opaque layer is present underneath an upper transmissive cloud layer in the satellite field of view (FOV). Errors tend to increase with decreasing upper-cloud effective cloud amount and with decreasing cloud height (increasing pressure). Errors in retrieved upper-cloud pressure result in corresponding errors in derived effective cloud amount. For the case in which a HIRS FOV has two distinct cloud layers, the difference between the retrieved and actual cloud-top pressure is positive in all cases, meaning that the retrieved upper-cloud height is lower than the actual upper-cloud height. In addition, errors in retrieved cloud pressure are found to depend upon the lapse rate between the low-level cloud top and the surface. We examined which sounder channel combinations would minimize the total errors in derived cirrus cloud height caused by instrument noise and by the presence of a lower-level cloud. We find that while the sounding channels that peak between 700 and 1000 mb minimize random errors, the sounding channels that peak at 300-500 mb minimize bias errors. For a cloud climatology, the bias errors are most critical.

Description: We examine the influence of aggregation errors on developing estimates of regional soil-CO2 flux from temperate forests. We find daily soil-CO2 fluxes to be more sensitive to changes in soil temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 3.08) than air temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 1.99). The direct use of mean monthly air temperatures with a daily flux model underestimates regional fluxes by approximately 4%. Temporal aggregation error varies with spatial resolution. Overall, our calibrated modeling approach reduces spatial aggregation error by 9.3% and temporal aggregation error by 15.5%. After minimizing spatial and temporal aggregation errors, mature temperate forest soils are estimated to contribute 12.9 Pg C/yr to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Georeferenced model estimates agree well with annual soil-CO2 fluxes measured during chamber studies in mature temperate forest stands around the globe.

Description: This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Description: Winds derived from a stratospheric and tropospheric data assimilation system (STRATAN) are compared with balance winds derived from National Meteorological Center/Climate Analysis Center (NMC/CAC) heights. At middle latitudes in the lower stratosphere, the results show that STRATAN winds are comparable to the balance winds. In addition STRATAN winds provide useful horizontal divergence analyses, and hence, vertical velocity fields. More generally, the STRATAN winds are useful in a more extended domain than the balanced winds. In particular, they are useful in the Tropics and the upper stratosphere where the balanced winds fail. The assimilation also captures the quasi-biennial oscillation, but does not do a good job of representing tropical waves.

Description: The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Description: A new framework for interpreting the origin of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO), which avoids the speed and scale selection problems in the previous theories, is proposed in this study. In this interpretation TISO is viewed as an oscillation driven by an eastward moving convective region. This convective region consists of one or more super cloud clusters originating in the Indian Ocean and terminating in mid-Pacific, and is then followed by another convective region arising in the Indian Ocean in a period of 40-50 days. Additionally, a formal analogy is pointed out between super cloud clusters and the middle-latitude baroclinic wave packets. This study includes a simulation of TISO in a 2D model to support our interpretation. Experiments were conducted with four different convection schemes. The authors advocate that the successful simulation of TISO depends on the successful simulation of super clouds cluster, which in turn depends on the successful simulation of the life cycle of cloud clusters, which further in turn depends on the choice of cumulus convection scheme. What makes a cumulus convection scheme successful in simulating TISO is discussed.

Description: The large gradual solar-energetic-particle (SEP) events, where abundances are commonly measured, are produced when coronal mass ejections (CMEs) drive shock waves through the corona and the interplanetary medium. The shock accelerates particles from the highly-ionized, approximately 1.5 MK, plasma in a manner that depends only weakly upon the Q/A of the ion, except at very high energies. Averaging the approximately 1 MeV/amu abundances over many events compensates for the acceleration effects to produce abundances that appear to correspond directly to those in the coronal source for all observed elements, including H. The resulting abundances reflect the 4 x enhancement of ions with low values of first ionization potential (FIP) arising from ion-neutral fractionation that occurs as the atoms are transported up from the photosphere. A different pattern of fractionation is found for ions that are shock-accelerated from the high speed solar wind emerging from coronal holes.

Description: GEMPAK is a general meteorological software package developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. It includes programs to analyze and display surface, upper-air, and gridded data, including model output. There are very general programs to list, edit, and plot data on maps, to display profiles and time series, to draw and fill contours, to draw streamlines, to plot symbols for clouds, sky cover, and pressure tendency, and draw cross sections in the case of gridded data and sounding data. In addition, there are Barnes objective analysis programs to grid surface and upper-air data. The programs include the capabilities to derive meteorological parameters from those found in the dataset, to perform vertical interpolations of sounding data to different coordinate systems, and to compute an extensive set of gridded diagnostic quantities by specifying various nested combinations of scalars and vector arithmetic, algebraic, and differential operators. The GEMPAK 5.1 graphics/transformation subsystem, GEMPLT, provides device-independent graphics. GEMPLT also has the capability to display output in a variety of map projections or overlaid on satellite imagery. GEMPAK 5.1 is written in FORTRAN 77 and C-language and has been implemented on VAX computers under VMS and on computers running the UNIX operating system. During installation and normal use, this package occupies approximately 100Mb of hard disk space. The UNIX version of GEMPAK includes drivers for several graphic output systems including MIT's X Window System (X11,R4), Sun GKS, PostScript (color and monochrome), Silicon Graphics, and others. The VMS version of GEMPAK also includes drivers for several graphic output systems including PostScript (color and monochrome). The VMS version is delivered with the object code for the Transportable Applications Environment (TAE) program, version 4.1 which serves as a user interface. A color monitor is recommended for displaying maps on video display devices. Data for rendering regional maps is included with this package. The standard distribution medium for the UNIX version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a 6250 BPI 9-track magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. The VMS version is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in DEC VAX BACKUP format. This program was developed in 1985. The current version, GEMPAK 5.1, was released in 1992. The package is delivered with source code. An extensive collection of subroutine libraries allows users to format data for use by GEMPAK, to develop new programs, and to enhance existing ones.

Description: GEMPAK is a general meteorological software package developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. It includes programs to analyze and display surface, upper-air, and gridded data, including model output. There are very general programs to list, edit, and plot data on maps, to display profiles and time series, to draw and fill contours, to draw streamlines, to plot symbols for clouds, sky cover, and pressure tendency, and draw cross sections in the case of gridded data and sounding data. In addition, there are Barnes objective analysis programs to grid surface and upper-air data. The programs include the capabilities to derive meteorological parameters from those found in the dataset, to perform vertical interpolations of sounding data to different coordinate systems, and to compute an extensive set of gridded diagnostic quantities by specifying various nested combinations of scalars and vector arithmetic, algebraic, and differential operators. The GEMPAK 5.1 graphics/transformation subsystem, GEMPLT, provides device-independent graphics. GEMPLT also has the capability to display output in a variety of map projections or overlaid on satellite imagery. GEMPAK 5.1 is written in FORTRAN 77 and C-language and has been implemented on VAX computers under VMS and on computers running the UNIX operating system. During installation and normal use, this package occupies approximately 100Mb of hard disk space. The UNIX version of GEMPAK includes drivers for several graphic output systems including MIT's X Window System (X11,R4), Sun GKS, PostScript (color and monochrome), Silicon Graphics, and others. The VMS version of GEMPAK also includes drivers for several graphic output systems including PostScript (color and monochrome). The VMS version is delivered with the object code for the Transportable Applications Environment (TAE) program, version 4.1 which serves as a user interface. A color monitor is recommended for displaying maps on video display devices. Data for rendering regional maps is included with this package. The standard distribution medium for the UNIX version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a 6250 BPI 9-track magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. The VMS version is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in DEC VAX BACKUP format. This program was developed in 1985. The current version, GEMPAK 5.1, was released in 1992. The package is delivered with source code. An extensive collection of subroutine libraries allows users to format data for use by GEMPAK, to develop new programs, and to enhance existing ones.

Description: A meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series is presented. Synoptic analyses of mid-tropospheric circulation patterns are combined with isentropic back trajectory calculations to describe the long-range (400-3000 km) atmospheric transport mechanisms and pathways of air masses to the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of North America during July and August 1988. Siberia and the northern Pacific Ocean were found to be the two most likely source areas for 3-day transport to the study areas in Alaska. Transport to the Barrow region was frequently influenced by polar vortices and associated short-wave troughs over the Arctic Ocean, while the Bethel area was most often affected by lows migrating across the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as ridges of high pressure which built into interior Alaska. July 1988 was warmer and dryer than normal over much of Alaska. As a result, the 1988 Alaska fire season was one of the most active of the past decade. Airborne lidar measurements verified the presence of biomass burning plumes on many flights, often trapped in thin subsidence layer temperature inversions. Several cases of stratosphere/troposphere exchange were noted, based upon potential vorticity analyses and aircraft lidar data, especially in the Barrow region and during transit flights to and from Alaska.