ALBERT

Description: A densely spaced hydrographic survey of the northern Irminger Basin together with satellite-tracked near-surface drifters confirm the intense mesoscale variability within and above the Denmark Strait overflow. In particular, the drifters show distinct cyclonic vortices over the downslope edge of the outflow plume. Growing perturbations such as these can be attributed to the baroclinic instability of a density current. A primitive equation model with periodic boundaries is used to simulate the destabilization of an idealized dense filament on a continental slope that resembles the northeastern Irminger Basin. Unstable waves evolve rapidly if the initial temperature profile is perturbed with a sinusoidal anomaly that exceeds a certain cutoff wavelength. As the waves grow to large amplitudes isolated eddies of both signs develop. Anticyclones form initially within the dense filament and are rich in overflow water. In contrast, cyclones form initially with their center in the ambient water but wrap outflow water around their center, thus containing a mixture of both water types. The nonlinear advection of waters that were originally located within the front between both water masses contributes most significantly to the stronger intensification of the cyclones in comparison with anticyclones. The frontal waters carry positive relative vorticity into the center of the cyclone. The process bears therefore some resemblance to atmospheric frontal cyclogenesis. After saturation there is a bottom jet of overflow water that is confined by counterrotating eddies: anticyclones upslope and cyclones downslope of the overflow core. The parameter dependence of the maximum growth rate is studied, and the implications of eddy-induced mixing for the water mass modification is discussed.

Description: This study investigates the interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-year model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth Sytem Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural and no anthropogenic forcings are considered. These long simulations allow us to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO-ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Description: We investigated the effect of hydrostatic pressure of up to 6000 dbar on Aanderaa and Sea-Bird oxygen optodes both in the laboratory and in the field. The overall pressure response is a reduction in the O2 reading by 3 – 4 % per 1000 dbar which is closely linear with pressure and increases with temperature. Closer inspection reveals two superimposed processes with opposite effect: an O2-independent pressure response on the luminophore which increases optode O2 readings and an O2-dependent change in luminescence quenching which decreases optode O2 readings. The latter process dominates and is mainly due to a shift in the equilibrium between sensing membrane and sea water under elevated pressures. If only the dominant O2-dependent process is considered, Aanderaa and Sea-Bird optodes differ in their pressure response. Compensation of the O2-independent process, however, yields a uniform O2 dependence for Aanderaa optodes with standard foil and fast-response foil as well as Sea-Bird optodes. A new scheme to calculate optode O2 from raw data is proposed to account for the two processes. The overall uncertainty of the optode pressure correction amounts to 0.3 % per 1000 dbar, mainly due to variability between sensors.

Description: In the present paper a hydrostatic “reduced gravity” model, generally used to simulate transient bottom-arrested gravity plumes, was coupled with a sediment transport model. The coupled model considers the respective contribution of suspended sediment particles on the buoyancy of a plume and allows one to simulate autosuspension and size-differential deposition of sediments based on the local turbulence and settling velocities. Simulations using the coupled model reveal that sediment-enriched plumes are able to inject both entrained and original shelf water masses into intermediate and bottom layers of an adjacent ocean basin in an ageostrophic dynamical balance. Hence the mechanism described here is more rapid than classic, “seawater” plumes, which are solely driven by surplus density of the water masses. Results suggest that “turbidity” plumes may constitute an important process in the formation and renewal of deep waters in the Arctic Ocean. In case a turbidity plume reaches its level of equilibrium density, deposition of suspended particles causes the density of the interstitial fluid to be lower than the density of the ambient fluid. This initiates upward convection within the water column. The substantial difference between TS- and turbidity plumes is described by model experiments that utilize idealized slope and sediment distributions. A realistic simulation of a turbidity plume cascading down the continental slope of the western Barents Sea is presented. The computed distribution of deposited sediments agrees well with observations in an area of high accumulation of shelf-derived sediments. The frequency of occurrence of sediment-enriched gravity plumes originating from the Barents Sea shelf is estimated from the various geological variables (thickness of sediments at the bottom, grain size composition) measured from bottom sediments samples.

Description: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) supplies about one-third of the North Atlantic Deep Water and is critical to global thermohaline circulation. Knowledge of the pathways of DSO through the Irminger Basin and its transformation there is still incomplete, however. The authors deploy over 10 000 Lagrangian particles at the Denmark Strait in a high-resolution ocean model to study these issues. First, the particle trajectories show that the mean position and potential density of dense waters cascading over the Denmark Strait sill evolve consistently with hydrographic observations. These sill particles transit the Irminger Basin to the Spill Jet section (65.25°N) in 5–7 days and to the Angmagssalik section (63.5°N) in 2–3 weeks. Second, the dense water pathways on the continental shelf are consistent with observations and particles released on the shelf in the strait constitute a significant fraction of the dense water particles recorded at the Angmagssalik section within 60 days (~25%). Some particles circulate on the shelf for several weeks before they spill off the shelf break and join the overflow from the sill. Third, there are two places where the water density following particle trajectories decreases rapidly due to intense mixing: to the southwest of the sill and southwest of the Kangerdlugssuaq Trough on the continental slope. After transformation in these places, the overflow particles exhibit a wide range of densities.

Description: The sensitivities of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) to different distributions of tropical SST heating are investigated in an idealized aquaplanet model. It is found that an increase in tropical SSTs generally leads to an acceleration of tropical upwelling and an associated reduction in the age of air (AOA) in the polar stratosphere and that the AOA near the subtropical tropopause is correlated with local isentropic mixing of tropospheric air with stratospheric air. The zonal distribution of SST perturbations has a major impact on the vertical and meridional structure of the BDC as compared with other SST characteristics. Zonally localized SST heatings tend to generate a shallow acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, enhanced isentropic mixing associated with a weakened stratospheric jet, and a reduction in AOA mostly within the polar vortex. In contrast, SST heatings with a zonally symmetric structure tend to produce a deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation, suppressed isentropic mixing associated with a stronger stratospheric jet, and a decrease of AOA in the entire stratosphere. The shallow versus deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation change has been linked to wave propagation and dissipation in the subtropical lower stratosphere rather than wave generation in the troposphere, and the former can be strongly affected by the vertical position of the subtropical jet. These results suggest that, while the longitudinally localized SST trends under climate change may contribute to the change in the shallow branch of the BDC, the upward shift of the subtropical jet associated with the zonal SST heating can impact the deep branch of the BDC.

Description: The authors test the hypothesis that recent observed trends in surface westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere are directly consequent on observed trends in the timing of stratospheric final warming events. The analysis begins by verifying that final warming events have an impact on tropospheric circulation in a simplified GCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations are imposed in the stratosphere only. The model produces qualitatively realistic final warming events whose influence extends down to the surface, much like what has been reported in observational analyses. The authors then go on to study observed trends in surface westerlies composited with respect to the date of final warming events. If the considered hypothesis were correct, these trends would appear to be much weaker when composited with respect to the date of the final warming events. The authors find that this is not the case, and accordingly they conclude that the observed surface changes cannot be attributed simply to this shift toward later final warming events.

Description: High-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry was applied to the detection of the iron(III) complexes of the hydroxamate siderophores rhodotoluric acid, deferrioxamine B, and deferrichrome. Separation of the iron(III) complexes was obtained using a polystyrene-divinylbenzene stationary phase. The retention and responses of ferrioxamine and ferrichrome were optimal when a gradient elution program with methanol and 0.1% (v/v) formic acid as the mobile phases was used. These conditions were also suitable for the retention and separation of the uncomplexed ligands. Retention of iron(III) rhodotoluate was improved when formic acid was replaced by the ion-pairing reagent heptafluorobutyric acid (0.1%). Detection limits for the ferric complexes, defined as 3 SD of the lowest determined standard, were 26 nM for iron(III) rhodotoluate, 0.23 nM for ferrioxamine, and 0.40 nM for ferrichrome. A protocol for the solid-phase extraction of these hydroxamate siderophores from seawater was developed and applied to the extraction of siderophores from enriched incubated seawater samples.

Description: High-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry was applied to the detection of the iron(III) complexes of the hydroxamate siderophores rhodotoluric acid, deferrioxamine B, and deferrichrome. Separation of the iron(III) complexes was obtained using a polystyrene-divinylbenzene stationary phase. The retention and responses of ferrioxamine and ferrichrome were optimal when a gradient elution program with methanol and 0.1% (v/v) formic acid as the mobile phases was used. These conditions were also suitable for the retention and separation of the uncomplexed ligands. Retention of iron(III) rhodotoluate was improved when formic acid was replaced by the ion-pairing reagent heptafluorobutyric acid (0.1%). Detection limits for the ferric complexes, defined as 3 SD of the lowest determined standard, were 26 nM for iron(III) rhodotoluate, 0.23 nM for ferrioxamine, and 0.40 nM for ferrichrome. A protocol for the solid-phase extraction of these hydroxamate siderophores from seawater was developed and applied to the extraction of siderophores from enriched incubated seawater samples.

Description: The upper tropical Atlantic Ocean has markedly warmed since the 1960s. It has been shown that this warming was not due to local heat fluxes, and that the trade winds that drive the coastal and equatorial upwelling have intensified rather than weakened. Remote forcing might thus have played an important role. Here model experiments are used to investigate the contribution from an increased inflow of warm Indian Ocean water through Agulhas leakage. A high-resolution hindcast experiment with interannually varying forcing for the time period 1948 to 2007, in which Agulhas leakage increases by about 45% from the 1960s to the early 2000s, reproduces the observed warming trend. To tease out the role of Agulhas leakage, a sensitivity experiment designed to only increase Agulhas leakage is used. Compared to a control simulation it shows a pronounced warming in the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Lagrangian trajectory analysis confirms that a significant portion of Agulhas leakage water reaches the upper 300m of the tropical Atlantic Ocean within two decades, and that the tropical Atlantic warming in the sensitivity experiment is mainly due to water of Agulhas origin. Therefore, it is suggested that the increased trade winds since the 1960s favor upwelling of warmer subsurface waters, which in parts originate from the Agulhas, leading to higher SSTs in the tropics

Description: A total of 19 naturally occurring bromophenols, with six new and 13 known structures, were isolated and identified from the methanolic extract of the marine red alga Rhodomela confervoides. The new compounds were identified by spectroscopic methods as 3,4-dibromo-5-((methylsulfonyl)methyl)benzene-1,2-diol (1), 3,4-dibromo-5-((2,3-dihydroxypropoxy)methyl)benzene-1,2-diol (2), 5-(aminomethyl)-3,4-dibromobenzene-1,2-diol (3), 2-(2,3-dibromo-4,5-dihydroxyphenyl)acetic acid (4), 2-methoxy-3-bromo-5-hydroxymethylphenol (5), and (E)-4-(2-bromo-4,5-dihydroxyphenyl)but-3-en-2-one (6). Each compound was evaluated for free radical scavenging activity against DPPH (α,α-diphenyl-β-dipicrylhydrazyl) and ABTS [2,2′-azinobis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid)diammonium salt] radicals. Most of them exhibited potent activities stronger than or comparable to the positive controls butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT) and ascorbic acid. The results from this study suggest that R. confervoides is an excellent source of natural antioxidants, and inclusion of these antioxidant-rich algal components would likely help prevent the oxidative deterioration of food.

Description: Implantable endovascular devices such as bare metal, drug eluting, and bioresorbable stents have transformed interventional care by providing continuous structural and mechanical support to many peripheral, neural, and coronary arteries affected by blockage. Although effective in achieving immediate restoration of blood flow, the long-term re-endothelialization and inflammation induced by mechanical stents are difficult to diagnose or treat. Here we present nanomaterial designs and integration strategies for the bioresorbable electronic stent with drug-infused functionalized nanoparticles to enable flow sensing, temperature monitoring, data storage, wireless power/data transmission, inflammation suppression, localized drug delivery, and hyperthermia therapy. In vivo and ex vivo animal experiments as well as in vitro cell studies demonstrate the previously unrecognized potential for bioresorbable electronic implants coupled with bioinert therapeutic nanoparticles in the endovascular system.

Description: The current difficulty in visualizing the true extent of malignant brain tumors during surgical resection represents one of the major reasons for the poor prognosis of brain tumor patients. Here, we evaluated the ability of a hand-held Raman scanner, guided by surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) nanoparticles, to identify the microscopic tumor extent in a genetically engineered RCAS/tv-a glioblastoma mouse model. In a simulated intraoperative scenario, we tested both a static Raman imaging device and a mobile, hand-held Raman scanner. We show that SERS image-guided resection is more accurate than resection using white light visualization alone. Both methods complemented each other, and correlation with histology showed that SERS nanoparticles accurately outlined the extent of the tumors. Importantly, the hand-held Raman probe not only allowed near real-time scanning, but also detected additional microscopic foci of cancer in the resection bed that were not seen on static SERS images and would otherwise have been missed. This technology has a strong potential for clinical translation because it uses inert gold-silica SERS nanoparticles and a hand-held Raman scanner that can guide brain tumor resection in the operating room.

Description: The shrinking-core model of the formation of gas hydrates from ice spheres with well-defined geometry gives experimental access to the gas permeation in bulk hydrates which is relevant to their use as energy storage materials, their exploitation from natural resources, as well as to their role in flow assurance. Here we report on a new approach to model CO2 clathration experiments in the temperature range from 230 to 272 K. We develop a comprehensive description of the gas permeation based on the diffusion along the network of polyhedral cages, some of them being empty. Following earlier molecular dynamics simulation results, the jump from a cage to one of its empty neighbors is assumed to proceed via a “hole-in-cage-wall” mechanism involving water vacancies in cage walls. The rate-limiting process in the investigated temperature range can be explained by the creation of water-vacancy-interstitial pairs. The gas diffusion leads to a time-dependent cage filling which decreases across the hydrate layer with the distance from the particle surface. The model allows a prediction of the time needed for a complete conversion of ice spheres into clathrate as well as the time needed for a full equilibration of the cage fillings. The findings essentially support our earlier results obtained in the framework of a purely phenomenological permeation model in terms of the overall transformation kinetics, yet it provides for the first time insight into the cage equilibration processes. The diffusion of CO2 molecules through bulk hydrate is found to be about three to four times faster in comparison with the CH4 case.

Description: Data from an array of six moorings deployed east of Abaco, Bahamas, along 26.5°N during March 2004–May 2005 are analyzed. These moorings formed the western boundary array of a transbasin observing system designed to continuously monitor the meridional overturning circulation and meridional heat flux in the subtropical North Atlantic, under the framework of the joint U.K.–U.S. Rapid Climate Change (RAPID)–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Program. Important features of the western boundary circulation include the southward-flowing deep western boundary current (DWBC) below 1000 m and the northward-flowing “Antilles” Current in the upper 1000 m. Transports in the western boundary layer are estimated from direct current meter observations and from dynamic height moorings that measure the spatially integrated geostrophic flow between moorings. The results of these methods are combined to estimate the time-varying transports in the upper and deep ocean over the width of the western boundary layer to a distance of 500 km offshore of the Bahamas escarpment. The net southward transport of the DWBC across this region, inclusive of northward deep recirculation, is −26.5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), which is divided nearly equally between upper (−13.9 Sv) and lower (−12.6 Sv) North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the top 1000 m, 6.0 Sv flows northward in a thermocline-intensified jet near the western boundary. These transports are found to agree well with historical current meter data in the region collected between 1986 and 1997. Variability in both shallow and deep components of the circulation is large, with transports above 1000 m varying between −15 and +25 Sv and deep transports varying between −60 and +3 Sv. Much of this transport variability, associated with barotropic fluctuations, occurs on relatively short time scales of several days to a few weeks. Upon removal of the barotropic fluctuations, slower baroclinic transport variations are revealed, including a temporary stoppage of the lower NADW transport in the DWBC during November 2004.

Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, forty-eight-month-long time series of the vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008 the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ±2.1 Sv with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic mid-ocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 Sv and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geostrophic AMOC anomalies might represent an important and previously underestimated component of meridional transport and storage of heat in the subtropical North Atlantic. There is evidence that the seasonal cycle observed here is representative of much longer intervals. Previously, hydrographic snapshot estimates between 1957 and 2004 had suggested a long-term decline of the AMOC by 8 Sv. This study suggests that aliasing of seasonal AMOC anomalies might have accounted for a large part of the inferred slowdown.

Description: A new shipboard current profiler, a 75-kHz ocean surveyor, was operationally used during two research cruises in the tropical Atlantic and the subpolar North Atlantic, respectively. Here, a report is presented on the first experience with this instrument in two very different current regimes, in the Tropics with large vertical shears, and in the subpolar regime with mainly barotropic flow. The ocean surveyor continuously measured currents in the upper ocean from near the surface to about 500–700-m depth. The measurement range showed a dependence on the regional and temporal variations of scattering particles and on the intensity of swell and wind waves. Statistical comparisons are performed with on-station lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) profiles and underway measurements by classic shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements. Accuracy estimates for hourly averaged ocean surveyor currents result in errors of about 1 cm s–1 for on-station data and of 2–4 cm s–1 for underway measurements, depending on the regional abundance of scatterers and on the weather conditions encountered.

Description: The World Ocean Circulation Experiment has established Lagrangian observations with neutrally buoyant floats as a routine tool in the study of deep-sea currents. Here a novel variant of the well-proven RAFOS concept for seeding floats at locations where they can be triggered on a timed basis is introduced. This cost-effective method obviates the need to revisit sites with a high-priced research vessel each time floats are to be deployed. It enables multiple Lagrangian time series, for example, for the observation of intermediate point sources of water masses, which are independent but have identical start points. This can be done even in environmentally challenging regions such as below the ice. The successfully tested autonomous float park concept does not rely on a release carousel moored on the seafloor. Instead, a second release was added to the standard RAFOS float for optional delay of regular drift missions. A float park can easily be installed by a conductivity–temperature–depth recorder system with a slightly modified rosette sampler.

Description: A generalization of the transformed Eulerian and temporal residual means is presented. The new formulation uses rotational fluxes of buoyancy, and the full hierarchy of statistical density moments, to reduce the cross-isopycnal eddy flux to the physically relevant component associated with the averaged water mass properties. The resulting eddy-induced diapycnal diffusivity vanishes for adiabatic, statistically steady flow, and is related to either the growth or decay of mesoscale density variance and/or the covariance between small-scale forcing (mixing) and density fluctuations, such as that associated with the irreversible removal of density variance by dissipation. The relationship between the new formulation and previous approaches is described and is illustrated using results from an eddying channel model. The formalism is quite general and applies to all kinds of averaging and to any tracer (not just density).

Description: Chlorofluorocarbon (component CFC-11) and hydrographic data from 1997, 1999, and 2001 are presented to track the large-scale spreading of the Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. ULSW is CFC rich and comparatively low in salinity. It is located on top of the denser “classical” Labrador Sea Water (LSW), defined in the density range σΘ = 27.68–27.74 kg m−3. It follows spreading pathways similar to LSW and has entered the eastern North Atlantic. Despite data gaps, the CFC-11 inventories of ULSW in the subpolar North Atlantic (40°–65°N) could be estimated within 11%. The inventory increased from 6.0 ± 0.6 million moles in 1997 to 8.1 ± 0.6 million moles in 1999 and to 9.5 ± 0.6 million moles in 2001. CFC-11 inventory estimates were used to determine ULSW formation rates for different periods. For 1970–97, the mean formation rate resulted in 3.2–3.3 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). To obtain this estimate, 5.0 million moles of CFC-11 located in 1997 in the ULSW in the subtropical/tropical Atlantic were added to the inventory of the subpolar North Atlantic. An estimate of the mean combined ULSW/LSW formation rate for the same period gave 7.6–8.9 Sv. For the years 1998–99, the ULSW formation rate solely based on the subpolar North Atlantic CFC-11 inventories yielded 6.9–9.2 Sv. At this time, the lack of classical LSW formation was almost compensated for by the strongly pronounced ULSW formation. Indications are presented that the convection area needed in 1998–99 to form this amount of ULSW exceeded the available area in the Labrador Sea. The Irminger Sea might be considered as an additional region favoring ULSW formation. In 2000–01, ULSW formation weakened to 3.3–4.7 Sv. Time series of layer thickness based on historical data indicate that there exists considerable variability of ULSW and classical LSW formation on decadal scales.

Description: Quantile mapping is routinely applied to correct biases of regional climate model simulations compared to observational data. If the observations are of similar resolution as the regional climate model, quantile mapping is a feasible approach. However, if the observations are of much higher resolution, quantile mapping also attempts to bridge this scale mismatch. Here, it is shown for daily precipitation that such quantile mapping-based downscaling is not feasible but introduces similar problems as inflation of perfect prognosis ("prog") downscaling: the spatial and temporal structure of the corrected time series is misrepresented, the drizzle effect for area means is overcorrected, area-mean extremes are overestimated, and trends are affected. To overcome these problems, stochastic bias correction is required.

Description: Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation.Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Description: Two major water masses dominate the deep layers in the Mariana and Caroline Basins: the Lower Circumpolar Water (LCPW), arriving from the Southern Ocean along the slopes north of the Marshall Islands, and the North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) reaching the region from the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Hydrographic and moored observations and multibeam echosounding were performed in the East Mariana and the East Caroline Basins to detail watermass distributions and flow paths in the area. The LCPW enters the East Mariana Basin from the east. At about 13°N, however, in the southern part of the basin, a part of this water mass arrives in a southward western boundary flow along the Izu–Ogasawara–Mariana Ridge. Both hydrographic observations and moored current measurements lead to the conclusion that this water not only continues westward to the West Mariana Basin as suggested before, but also provides bottom water to the East Caroline Basin. The critical throughflow regions were identified by multibeam echosounding at the Yap Mariana Junction between the East and West Mariana Basins and at the Caroline Ridge between the East Mariana and East Caroline Basins. The throughflow is steady between the East and West Mariana Basins, whereas more variability is found at the Caroline Ridge. At both locations, throughflow fluctuations are correlated with watermass property variations suggesting layer-thickness changes. The total transport to the two neighboring basins is only about 1 Sverdrup (1Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) but has considerable impact on the watermass structure in these basins. Estimates are given for the diapycnal mixing that is required to balance the inflow into the East Caroline Basin. Farther above in the water column, the high-silica tongue of NPDW extends from the east to the far southwestern corner of the East Mariana Basin, with transports being mostly southward across the basin.

Description: Global mean and eddy fields from a four-year experiment with a 1/6° × 1/5° horizontal resolution implementation of the CME North Atlantic model are presented. The time-averaged wind-driven and thermohaline circulation in the model is compared to the results of a 1/3° × 2/5° model run in very similar configuration. In general, the higher resolution results are found to confirm that the resolution of previous CME experiments is sufficient to describe many features of the large-scale circulation and water mass distribution quite well. While the increased resolution does not lead to large changes in the mean flow patterns, the variability in the model is enhanced significantly. On the other hand, however, not all aspects of the circulation have improved with resolution. The Azores Current Frontal Zone with its variability in the eastern basin is still represented very poorly. Particular attention is also directed toward the unrealistic stationary anticyclones north of Cape Hatteras and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Description: A new mechanism is proposed that explains two key features of the observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—its irregularity and decadal amplitude changes. Using a low-order ENSO model, the authors show that the nonlinearities in the tropical heat budget can lead to bursting behavior characterized by decadal occurrences of strong El Niño events. La Niña events are not affected, a feature that is also seen in ENSO observations. One key result of this analysis is that decadal variability in the Tropics can be generated without invoking extratropical processes or stochastic forcing. The El Niño bursting behavior simulated by the low-order ENSO model can be understood in terms of the concept of homoclinic and heteroclinic connections. It is shown that this new model for ENSO amplitude modulations and irregularity, although difficult to prove, might explain some features of ENSO dynamics seen in more complex climate models and the observations.

Description: Lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCPs) have matured from an experimental instrument to an operational hydrographic tool to study ocean dynamics. The data processing, however, is still in a rather primitive state. First, a method to estimate bottom-track velocities using the standard water profile data was developed. Then inverse solutions are presented that enhance the standard data processing by adding external constraints such as bottom-referenced velocity profiles. Depending on the depth of the profile and the ADCP range the inclusion of bottom-track data can reduce the local velocity errors by a significant factor. The least squares framework also allows for simplified error analysis of the LADCP system and some of the trade-offs are discussed.

Description: A new approach based on statistical estimation is proposed for the analysis of tomographic traveltime data in cases of significant nonlinear dependence of the traveltimes on the sound-speed variations. Traditional tomography schemes based on linear perturbative inversions about a single, a priori fixed background state cannot properly handle such cases since the linearized model relations will lead to considerable inversion errors, depending on the extent of nonlinearity. In contrast, the background state is considered here as a variable unknown quantity to be estimated from the traveltime data, simultaneously with the peak identification function and the sound-speed perturbation. Using the maximum likelihood approach and the Gaussian assumption, the statistical estimation problem reduces to a weighted least squares problem to be solved simultaneously for the three unknown quantities. A posteriori inversion-error estimates are derived accounting also for uncertainties in the background selection and the peak identification. The proposed method is applied to nine-month-long traveltime data from the Thetis-2 experiment, conducted from January to October 1994 in the Western Mediterranean Sea, where the variability of the ocean environment gives rise to significant nonlinear dependencies between sound-speed and traveltime variations. The recovered temporal variability and stratification compare well with independent XBT observations.

Description: Using the same approach as in Part I, here it is shown how sampling problems in voluntary observing ship (VOS) data affect conclusions about interannual variations and secular changes of surface heat fluxes. The largest uncertainties in linear trend estimates are found in relatively poorly sampled regions like the high-latitude North Atlantic and North Pacific as well as the Southern Ocean, where trends can locally show opposite signs when computed from the regularly sampled and undersampled data. Spatial patterns of shorter-period interannual variability, quantified through the EOF analysis, also show remarkable differences between the regularly sampled and undersampled flux datasets in the Labrador Sea and northwest Pacific. In particular, it is shown that in the Labrador Sea region, in contrast to regularly sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes, VOS-like sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes neither show significant interannual variability nor significant trends. These regions, although quite localized covering small parts of the globe, play a crucial role for the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. In the Labrador Sea, for instance, interannual and decadal-scale changes of the surface net heat fluxes are known to affect oceanic convection and, thus, the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. From a discussion of current atmospheric data assimilation systems it is argued that in poorly sampled regions reanalysis products are superior to VOS-based products for studying interannual and interdecadal variations of atmosphere–ocean interaction. In well-sampled regions, on the other hand, conclusions about surface heat flux variations are relatively insensitive to the choice of the flux products used (VOS versus reanalysis data). The results are confirmed for two different datasets, that is, ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and seasonal integrations with a recent version of the ECMWF model in which no actual data were assimilated.

Description: A neural network (NN) has been developed in order to retrieve the cloud liquid water path (LWP) over the oceans from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. The retrieval with NNs depends crucially on the SSM/I channels used as input and the number of hidden neurons—that is, the NN architecture. Three different combinations of the seven SSM/I channels have been tested. For all three methods an NN with five hidden neurons yields the best results. The NN-based LWP algorithms for SSM/I observations are intercompared with a standard regression algorithm. The calibration and validation of the retrieval algorithms are based on 2060 radiosonde observations over the global ocean. For each radiosonde profile the LWP is parameterized and the brightness temperatures (Tb’s) are simulated using a radiative transfer model. The best LWP algorithm (all SSM/I channels except T85V) shows a theoretical error of 0.009 kg m−2 for LWPs up to 2.8 kg m−2 and theoretical “clear-sky noise” (0.002 kg m−2), which has been reduced relative to the regression algorithm (0.031 kg m−2). Additionally, this new algorithm avoids the estimate of negative LWPs. An indirect validation and intercomparison is presented that is based upon SSM/I measurements (F-10) under clear-sky conditions, classified with independent IR-Meteosat data. The NN-based algorithms outperform the regression algorithm. The best LWP algorithm shows a clear-sky standard deviation of 0.006 kg m−2, a bias of 0.001 kg m−2, nonnegative LWPs, and no correlation with total precipitable water. The estimated accuracy for SSM/I observations and two of the proposed new LWP algorithms is 0.023 kg m−2 for LWP ⩽ 0.5 kg m−2.

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-of-the-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

Description: Perfect model ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar initial states and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that; variations in the ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the N. Atlantic are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels which are less than those seen for MOC variations. This inter-comparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a pre-requisite for the development of any operational forecasting system

Description: An initially resting ocean of stratification N is considered, subject to buoyancy loss at its surface of magnitude B0 over a circular region of radius r, at a latitude where the Coriolis parameter is f. Initially the buoyancy loss gives rise to upright convection as an ensemble of plumes penetrates the stratified ocean creating a vertically mixed layer. However, as deepening proceeds, horizontal density gradients at the edge of the forcing region support a geostrophic rim current, which develops growing meanders through baroclinic instability. Eventually finite-amplitude baroclinic eddies sweep stratified water into the convective region at the surface and transport convected water outward and away below, setting up a steady state in which lateral buoyancy flux offsets buoyancy loss at the surface. In this final state quasi-horizontal baroclinic eddy transfer dominates upright “plume” convection. By using “parcel theory” to consider the energy transformations taking place, it is shown that the depth, hfinal at which deepening by convective plumes is arrested by lateral buoyancy flux due to baroclinic eddies, and the time tfinal it takes to reach this depth, is given by both independent of rotation. Here γ and β are dimensionless constants that depend on the efficiency of baroclinic eddy transfer. A number of laboratory and numerical experiments are then inspected and carried out to seek confirmation of these parameter dependencies and obtain quantitative estimates of the constants. It is found that γ = 3.9 ± 0.9 and β = 12 ± 3. Finally, the implications of our study to the understanding of integral properties of deep and intermediate convection in the ocean are discussed.

Description: Numerical experiments are performed to examine the causes of variability of Atlantic Ocean SST during the period covered by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis (1958-98). Three ocean models are used. Two are mixed layer models: one with a 75-m-deep mixed layer and the other with a variable depth mixed layer. For both mixed layer models the ocean heat transports are assumed to remain at their diagnosed climatological values. The third model is a full dynamical ocean general circulation model (GCM). All models are coupled to a model of the subcloud atmospheric mixed layer (AML). The AML model computes the air temperature and humidity by balancing surface fluxes, radiative cooling, entrainment at cloud base, advection and eddy heat, and moisture transports. The models are forced with NCEP-NCAR monthly mean winds from 1958 to 1998. The ocean mixed layer models adequately reproduce the dominant pattern of Atlantic Ocean climate variability in both its spatial pattern and time dependence. This pattern is the familiar tripole of alternating zonal bands of SST anomalies stretching between the subpolar gyre and the subtropics. This SST pattern goes along with a wind pattern that corresponds to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Analysis of the results reveals that changes in wind speed create the subtropical SST anomalies while at higher latitudes changes in advection of temperature and humidity and changes in atmospheric eddy fluxes are important. An observational analysis of the boundary layer energy balance is also performed. Anomalous atmospheric eddy heat fluxes are very closely tied to the SST anomalies. Anomalous horizontal eddy fluxes damp the SST anomalies while anomalous vertical eddy fluxes tend to cool the entire midlatitude North Atlantic during the NAO's high-index phase with the maximum cooling exactly where the SST gradient is strengthened the most. The SSTs simulated by the ocean mixed layer model are compared with those simulated by the dynamic ocean GCM. In the far North Atlantic Ocean anomalous ocean heat transports are equally important as surface fluxes in generating SST anomalies and they act constructively. The anomalous heat transports are associated with anomalous Ekman drifts and are consequently in phase with the changing surface fluxes. Elsewhere changes in surface fluxes dominate over changes in ocean heat transport. These results suggest that almost all of the variability of the North Atlantic SST in the last four decades can be explained as a response to changes in surface fluxes caused by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Changes in the mean atmospheric circulation force the SST while atmospheric eddy fluxes dampen the SST. Both the interannual variability and the longer timescale changes can be explained in this way. While the authors were unable to find evidence for changes in ocean heat transport systematically leading or lagging development of SST anomalies, this leaves open the problem of explaining the causes of the low-frequency variability. Possible causes are discussed with reference to the modeling results.

Description: Zonal transports of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the South Atlantic are determined. For this purpose the circulation of intermediate and deep water masses is established on the basis of hydrographic sections from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and some pre-WOCE sections, using temperature, salinity, nutrients, and anthropogenic tracers. Multiple linear regression is applied to infer missing parameters in the bottle dataset. A linear box-inverse model is used for a set of closed boxes given by sections and continental boundaries. After performing a detailed analysis of water mass distribution, 11 layers are prescribed. Neutral density surfaces are selected as layer interfaces, thus improving the description of water mass distribution in the transition between the subtropical and subpolar latitudes. Constraints for the inverse model include integral meridional salt and phosphorus transports, overall salt and silica conservation, and transports from moored current meter observations. Inferred transport numbers for the mean meridional thermohaline overturning are given. Persistent zonal NADW transport bands are found in the western South Atlantic, in particular eastward flow of relatively new NADW between 20° and 25°S and westward flow of older NADW to the north of this latitude range. The axis of the eastward transport band corresponds to the core of property distributions in this region, suggesting Wüstian flow. Part of the eastward flow appears to cross the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at the Rio de Janeiro Fracture Zone. Results are compared qualitatively with deep float observations and results from general circulation models

Description: This paper describes, and establishes the dynamical mechanisms responsible for, the large-scale, time-mean, midlatitude circulation in a high-resolution model of the North Atlantic basin. The model solution is compared with recently proposed transport schemes and interpretations of the dynamical balances operating in the sub-tropical gyre. In particular, the question of the degree to which Sverdrup balance holds for the subtropical gyre is addressed. At 25°N, thermohaline-driven bottom flows cause strong local departures from the Sverdrup solution for the vertically integrated meridional mass transport, but these nearly integrate to zero across the interior of the basin. In the northwestern region of the subtropical gyre, in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, higher-order dynamics become important, and linear vorticity dynamics is unable to explain the model's vertically integrated transport. In the subpolar gyre, the model transport bears little resemblance to the Sverdrup prediction, and higher-order dynamics are important across the entire longitudinal extent of the basin. The sensitivity of the model transport amplitudes, patterns, and dynamical balances are estimated by examining the solutions under a range of parameter choices and for four different wind stress forcing specifications. Taking into account a deficit of 7–10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the contribution of the model thermohaline circulation to the meridional transports at 25°N, the wind stress climatology of Isemer and Hasse appears to yield too strong of a circulation, while that derived from the NCAR Community Climate Model yields too weak of a circulation. The Hellerman and Rosenstein and ECMWF climatologies result in wind-driven transports close to observational estimates at 25°N. The range between cases for the annual mean southward transport in the interior above 1000 m is 14 Sv, which is 40%–70% of the mean transport itself. There is little sensitivity to the model closure parameters at this latitude. At 55°N, in the subpolar gyre, there is little sensitivity of the model solution to the choice of either closure parameters or wind climatology, despite large differences in the Sverdrup transports implied by the different wind stress datasets. Large year to year variability of the meridional transport east of the Bahamas makes it difficult to provide robust estimates of the sensitivity of the Antilles and deep western boundary current systems to forcing and parameter changes.

Description: Fifteen profiling floats were injected into the deep boundary current off Labrador. They were ballasted to drift in the core depth of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) at 1500-m depth and were deployed in two groups during March and July/August 1997. Initially, for about three months, the floats were drifting within the boundary current, and the flow vectors were used to determine the mean horizontal structure of the Deep Labrador Current, which was found to be about 100 km wide with an average core speed of 18 cm s−1. North of Flemish Cap the boundary current encounters complicated topography around “Orphan Knoll,” and there the LSW outflow splits up into different routes. One obvious LSW path is eastward through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone and another route is a narrow recirculation toward the central Labrador Sea. A surprising result was that none of the floats were able to follow the boundary current southward to the Grand Banks area and exit into the subtropics. Trajectories and temperature profiles of the eastward drifting floats indicate the importance of the North Atlantic Current for dispersing the floats, even at the level of LSW.

Description: The dependence of the air–sea interactions over the North Atlantic on the ocean dynamics is explored by analyzing multicentury integrations with two different coupled ocean–atmosphere models. One is a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), in which both the atmospheric and the oceanic components are represented by general circulation models (GCMs). The second coupled model employs the same atmospheric GCM, but the oceanic GCM is replaced by a fixed-depth mixed layer model, so that variations of the ocean dynamics are excluded. The coupled model including active ocean dynamics simulates strong multidecadal variability in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic, with a monopolar spatial structure. In contrast, the coupled model that employs an oceanic mixed layer model and thus does not carry active ocean dynamics simulates a tripolar SST anomaly pattern at decadal time scales. The tripolar SST anomaly pattern is characterized by strong horizontal gradients and is by definition the result of the action of surface heat flux anomalies on the oceanic mixed layer. The differences in the spatial structures of the dominant decadal SST anomaly patterns yield rather different atmospheric responses. While the response to the monopolar SST anomaly pattern is shallow and thermal, the response to the tripolar SST anomaly pattern involves changes in the transient eddy statistics. The latter can be explained by the strong horizontal SST gradients that affect the surface baroclinicity, which in turn affects the growth rate of the transient eddies. The differences in the atmospheric response characteristics yield completely different response patterns. In the coupled run with active ocean dynamics, the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies exhibit a rather homogeneous pattern that resembles somewhat the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), while a dipolar (North Atlantic Oscillation) NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern is simulated in the coupled run without active ocean dynamics.

Description: A 12-month mooring record (May 1994–June 1995), together with accompanying PALACE float data, is used to describe an annual cycle of deep convection and restratification in the Labrador Sea. The mooring is located at 56.75°N, 52.5°W, near the former site of Ocean Weather Station Bravo, in water of 3500 m depth. This is a pilot experiment for climate monitoring, and also for studies of deep-convection dynamics. Mooring measurements include temperature (T), salinity (S), horizontal and vertical velocity, and acoustic measurement of surface winds. The floats made weekly temperature–salinity profiles between their drift level (near 1500 m) and the surface. With moderately strong cooling to the atmosphere (300 W m−2 averaged from November to March), wintertime convection penetrated from the surface to about 1750 m, overcoming the stabilizing effect of upper-ocean low-salinity water. The water column restratifies rapidly after brief vertical homogenization (in potential density, salinity, and potential temperature). Both the rapid restratification and the energetic high-frequency variations of T and S observed at the mooring are suggestive of a convection depth that varies greatly with location. Lateral variations in T and S exist down to very small scales, and these remnants of convection decay (with e-folding time 170 day) after convection ceases. Lateral variability at the scale of 100 km is verified by PALACE profiles. The Eulerian mooring effectively samples the convection in a mesoscale region of ocean as eddies sweep past it; the Lagrangian PALACE floats are complementary in sampling the geography of deep convection more widely. This laterally variable convection leaves the water column with significant vertical gradients most of the year. Convection followed by lateral mixing gives vertical salinity profiles the (misleading) appearance that a one-dimensional diffusive process is fluxing freshwater downward. During spring, summer, and fall the salinity, temperature, and buoyancy rise steadily with time throughout most of the water column. This is likely the result of mixing with the encircling boundary currents, compensating for the escape of Labrador Sea Water from the region. Low-salinity water mixes into the gyre only near the surface. The water-column heat balance is in satisfactory agreement with meteorological assimilation models. Directly observed subsurface calorimetry may be the more reliable indication of the annual-mean air–sea heat flux. Acoustic instrumentation on the mooring gave a surprisingly good time series of the vector surface wind. The three-dimensional velocity field consists of convective plumes of width 200 to 1000 m, vertical velocities of 2 to 8 cm s−1, and Rossby numbers of order unity, embedded in stronger (20 cm s−1) lateral currents associated with mesoscale eddies. Horizontal currents with timescales of several days to several months are strongly barotropic. They are suddenly energized as convection reaches great depth in early March, and develop toward a barotropic state, as also seen in models of convectively driven geostrophic turbulence in a weakly stratified, high-latitude ocean. Currents decay through the summer and autumn, apart from some persistent isolated eddies. These coherent, isolated, cold anticyclones carry cores of pure convected water long after the end of winter. Boundary currents nearby interact with the Labrador Sea gyre and provide an additional source of eddies in the interior Labrador Sea. An earlier study of the pulsation of the boundary currents is supported by observations of sudden ejection of floats from the central gyre into the boundary currents (and sudden ingestion of boundary current floats into the gyre interior), in what may be a mechanism for exchange between Labrador Sea Water and the World Ocean.

Description: A neural network is used to calculate the longwave net radiation (Lnet) at the sea surface from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). The neural network applied in this study is able to account largely for the nonlinearity between Lnet and the satellite-measured brightness temperatures (TB). The algorithm can be applied for instantaneous measurements over oceanic regions with the area extent of satellite passive microwave observations (30–60 km in diameter). Comparing with a linear regression method the neural network reduces the standard error for Lnet from 17 to 5 W m−2 when applied to model results. For clear-sky cases, a good agreement with an error of less than 5 W m−2 for Lnet between calculations from SSM/I observations and pyrgeometer measurements on the German research vessel Poseidon during the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) 1989 is obtained. For cloudy cases, the comparison is problematic due to the inhomogenities of clouds and the low and different spatial resolutions of the SSM/I data. Global monthly mean values of Lnet for October 1989 are computed and compared to other sources. Differences are observed among the climatological values from previous studies by H.-J. Isemer and L. Hasse, the climatological values from R. Lindau and L. Hasse, the values of W. L. Darnell et al., and results from this study. Some structures of Lnet are similar for results from W. L. Darnell et al. and the present authors. The differences between both results are generally less than 15 W m−2. Over the North Atlantic Ocean the authors found a poleward increase for Lnet, which is contrary to the results of H.-J. Isemer and L. Hasse.

Description: The horizontal and vertical structure of large-amplitude internal solitary waves propagating in stratified waters on a continental shelf is investigated by analyzing the results of numerical simulations and in situ measurements. Numerical simulations aimed at obtaining stationary, solitary wave solutions of different amplitudes were carried out using a nonstationary model based on the incompressible two-dimensional Euler equations in the frame of the Boussinesq approximation. The numerical solutions, which refer to different density stratifications typical for midlatitude continental shelves, were obtained by letting an initial disturbance evolve according to the numerical model. Several intriguing characteristics of the structure of the simulated large-amplitude internal solitary waves like, for example, wavelength–amplitude and phase speed–amplitude relationship as well as form of the locus of zero horizontal velocity emerge, consistent with those obtained previously using stationary Euler models. The authors’ approach, which tends to exclude unstable oceanic internal solitary waves as they are filtered out during the evolution process, was also employed to perform a detailed comparison between model results and characteristics of large-amplitude internal solitary waves found in high-resolution in situ data acquired north and south of the Strait of Messina, in the Mediterranean Sea. From this comparison the importance of using higher-order theoretical models for a detailed description of large-amplitude internal solitary waves observed in the real ocean emerge. Implications of the results showing the complexity related to a possible inversion of sea surface manifestations of oceanic internal solitary waves into characteristics of the interior ocean dynamics are finally discussed.

Description: A tangent linear adjoint for a low-resolution dynamical model of the atmosphere is used to derive the optimal forcing perturbations for all state variables such that after a specified lead time the model response has a given projection, in terms of an energy norm, on the pattern associated with the 51-yr trend in the Northern Hemisphere winter tropospheric circulation, 1948/49–1998/99. A feature of the derived forcing sensitivity is a Rossby wave–like feature that emanates from the western tropical Pacific and is associated with the deepening of the Aleutian low, whereas an annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity in the uppermost model level is shown to be associated with the pattern of the trend over the Euro-Atlantic/Asian sectors, including the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The authors argue that the Rossby wave–type feature is consistent with studies that have argued a role for the upward trend in tropical sea surface temperature during the 51-yr period. On the other hand, the authors interpret the annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity as being consistent with studies that have argued that the trend over the Euro-Atlantic sector was associated with influences from the stratosphere. In particular, a nonlinear model driven by the optimal forcing perturbation applied only to the top model level is successful at reproducing the trend pattern with the correct amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector, but implies a trend over the North Pacific toward a weaker Aleutian low, contrary to what was observed but similar to the spatial pattern associated with the northern annular mode. These results show that the adjoint approach can shed light on previous apparently different interpretations of the trend. The study also presents a successful application of a tangent linear adjoint model to a climate problem.

Description: On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than 25°C), it intensified to category-2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [maximum sustained wind speeds of 44 m s−1 (85 kt)] while tapping energy from the baroclinic environment. The large “hybrid” storm made landfall on the south coast of Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds of 39 m s−1 (75 kt) causing moderate damage to coastal communities east of landfall. Hurricane Michael presented significant challenges to weather forecasters. The fundamental issue was determining which of two cyclones (a newly formed baroclinic low south of Nova Scotia or the hurricane) would become the dominant circulation center during the early stages of the extratropical transition (ET) process. Second, it was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm at landfall owing to competing factors: 1) decreasing SSTs conducive to weakening and 2) the approaching negatively tilted upper-level trough, favoring intensification. Numerical hindcast simulations using the limited-area Mesoscale Compressible Community model with synthetic vortex insertion (cyclone bogus) prior to the ET of Hurricane Michael led to a more realistic evolution of wind and pressure compared to running the model without vortex insertion. Specifically, the mesoscale model correctly simulates the hurricane as the dominant circulation center early in the transition process, versus the baroclinic low to its north, which was the favored development in the runs not employing vortex insertion. A suite of experiments is conducted to establish the sensitivity of the ET to various initial conditions, lateral driving fields, domain sizes, and model parameters. The resulting storm tracks and intensities fall within the range of the operational guidance, lending support to the possibility of improving numerical forecasts using synthetic vortex insertion prior to ET in such a model.

Description: To avoid an explicit simulation of the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, many models of the large-scale ocean circulation seek to include the net effect of the inflowing dense water masses by restoring temperature and salinity near the ridge to observed conditions. In this paper the authors examine the effect of different datasets for the northern restoring condition in two versions, eddy resolving and non-eddy resolving, of the model of the North and equatorial Atlantic that has been developed in recent years as a Community Modeling Effort for WOCE. It is shown that the use of smoothed climatological fields of temperature and salinity south of the Denmark Strait leads to strong deficiencies in the simulation of the deep flow field in the basin. A switch to actual hydrographic data from the Denmark Strait ignites a rapid dynamic response throughout the North Atlantic, affecting the transport and vertical structure of the deep western boundary current and, by virtue of the JEBAR efffect, the transport of the horizontal gyres. Meridional overturning and northward heat transport too weak in the cases with climatological boundary conditions, increase to more realistic levels in the subtropical North Atlantic. The initial response to switches in the high-latitude thermohaline forcing is mediated by fast waves along the westurn boundary, leading to changes in the deep western boundary current in low latitudes after about two years in the non-eddy-resolving cast. The initial timescale depends on the horizontal grid spacing of the model; in the high-resolution case, the first signal reaches the equator in a few months. The adjustment to a new, dynamic quasi equilibrium involves Kelvin waves along the equator and Rossby wave in the interior and is attained in less than two decades throughout the North Atlantic. It is suggested that these fast dynamic adjustment processes could play an important role in possible fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation, or transitions between different equilibrium states of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and may have determined the timescale of the observed climatic transitions before and during the last deglaciation.

Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

Description: Processes that influence the volume and heat transport across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge system are investigated in a numerical model with ° horizontal resolution. The focus is on the sensitivity of cross-ridge transports and the reaction of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean circulation to changes in wind stress and buoyancy forcing on seasonal to interannual timescales. A general relation between changes in wind stress or cross-ridge density contrasts and the overturning transport of Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas source water is established from a series of idealized experiments. The relation is used subsequently to interpret changes in an experiment over the years 1992–97 with realistic forcing. On seasonal and interannual timescales there is a clear correlation between heat flux and wind stress curl variability. The realistic model suggests a steady decrease in the strength of the cyclonic subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic with a corresponding decrease in heat transport during the 1990s

Description: The role of mean and stochastic freshwater forcing on the generation of millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic is studied using a low-order coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. It is shown that millennial-scale oscillations can be excited stochastically, when the North Atlantic Ocean is fresh enough. This finding is used in order to interpret the aftermath of massive iceberg surges (Heinrich events) in the glacial North Atlantic, which are characterized by an excitation of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Based on model results, it is hypothesized that Heinrich events trigger Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and that furthermore the occurrence of Heinrich events is dependent on the accumulated climatic effect of a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. This scenario leads to a coupled ocean–ice sheet oscillation that shares many similarities with the Bond cycle. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that the timescale of the oscillations can be decomposed into stochastic, linear, and nonlinear deterministic components. A schematic bifurcation diagram is used to compare theoretical results with paleoclimatic data.

Description: Observations from the WOCE PCM-1 moored current meter array east of Taiwan for the period September 1994 to May 1996 are used to derive estimates of the Kuroshio transport at the entrance to the East China Sea. Three different methods of calculating the Kuroshio transport are employed and compared. These methods include 1) a “direct” method that uses conventional interpolation of the measured currents and extrapolation to the surface and bottom to estimate the current structure, 2) a “dynamic height” method in which moored temperature measurements from moorings on opposite sides of the channel are used to estimate dynamic height differences across the current and spatially averaged baroclinic transport profiles, and 3) an “adjusted geostrophic” method in which all moored temperature measurements within the array are used to estimate a relative geostrophic velocity field that is referenced and adjusted by the available direct current measurements. The first two methods are largely independent and are shown to produce very similar transport results. The latter two methods are particularly useful in situations where direct current measurements may have marginal resolution for accurate transport estimates. These methods should be generally applicable in other settings and illustrate the benefits of including a dynamic height measuring capability as a backup for conventional direct transport calculations. The mean transport of the Kuroshio over the 20-month duration of the experiment ranges from 20.7 to 22.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) for the three methods, or within 1.3 Sv of each other. The overall mean transport for the Kuroshio is estimated to be 21.5 Sv with an uncertainty of 2.5 Sv. All methods show a similar range of variability of ±10 Sv with dominant timescales of several months. Fluctuations in the transport are shown to have a robust vertical structure, with over 90% of the transport variance explained by a single vertical mode. The moored transports are used to determine the relationship between Kuroshio transport and sea-level difference between Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands, allowing for long-term monitoring of the Kuroshio inflow to the East China Sea.

Description: Consumer preference for natural food ingredients has increased in recent decades, and the natural food colorant market has grown to over one billion dollars annually. A variety of red, orange, and yellow natural colorants are approved and in use, but there still exists a lack of available blue and purple natural colorant options. The occurrence of blue colored compounds in the natural world is relatively rare. The isolation, identification, and characterization of natural blue and purple pigments obtained from underexplored natural sources such as from obscure terrestrial organisms and marine microorganisms will be discussed.

Description: The analysis of high-resolution oceanographic data referring to velocity measurements carried out by means of a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler on 12 November 2000 in the equatorial Atlantic, at 44°W between 4.5° and 6°N, reveals the presence of three large-amplitude internal solitary waves superimposed on the velocity field associated with the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). These waves were found in the deep ocean, more than 500 km off the continental shelf and far from regions of topographic variations. They propagated toward the north-northeast, strongly inclined with respect to the main axis of the NECC and perpendicular to the Brazilian shelf, as well as to the North Brazil Current, and were characterized by maximum horizontal velocities of about 2 m s−1 and maximum vertical velocities of about 20 cm s−1. The large magnitudes of the measured velocities indicate that the observed waves represent disturbances evolving in a strongly stratified ocean. The distance separating the waves (about 70 km) indicates that the observed features cannot be considered as elements of a single train of internal solitary waves. The waves consist, instead, of truly disconnected, pulselike intense solitary disturbances. This behavior, which strongly differs from that typically observed for trains of tidally generated internal solitary waves, indicates that different mechanisms were possibly involved in their generation and/or evolution.

Description: The incidence angles of the SSM/I radiometers on the DMSP satellites vary from satellite to satellite and exhibit variations of up to 1.5° during one orbit. The effects of these variations on the measured brightness temperatures are investigated on the basis of simulated and measured data for oceanic arm. A deviation of 1° from the nominal incidence angle of 53.0° causes brightness temperature changes of up to 2 K depending on surface and atmospheric conditions. Errors of retrieved geophysical parameters on the order of 5%–10% result when the incidence angle variation is not taken into account. This is a common property of most published statistical algorithms. For total precipitable water and cloud liquid water content the error increases with increasing parameter value. For wind speed the error is largest for low wind speed and decreases with increasing wind speed. Due to the slowly varying latitudinal dependence of the incidence angle, these errors do not cancel out when monthly means are computed. A correction method is developed on the basis of simulated data and tested successfully with measured data. Observed brightness temperature differences between DMSP F10 and F11 are reduced when using corrected data. If diurnal variations of geophysical parameters are investigated, the incidence angle correction is mandatory to obtain useful results, especially for DMSP F10.

Description: In the autumn of 1996 the field component of an experiment designed to observe water mass transformation began in the Labrador Sea. Intense observations of ocean convection were taken in the following two winters. The purpose of the experiment was, by a combination of meteorological and oceanographic field observations, laboratory studies, theory, and modeling, to improve understanding of the convective process in the ocean and its representation in models. The dataset that has been gathered far exceeds previous efforts to observe the convective process anywhere in the ocean, both in its scope and range of techniques deployed. Combined with a comprehensive set of meteorological and air-sea flux measurements, it is giving unprecedented insights into the dynamics and thermodynamics of a closely coupled, semienclosed system known to have direct influence on the processes that control global climate.

Description: A systematic modular approach to investigate the respective roles of the ocean and atmosphere in setting El Niño characteristics in coupled general circulation models is presented. Several state-of-the-art coupled models sharing either the same atmosphere or the same ocean are compared. Major results include 1) the dominant role of the atmosphere model in setting El Niño characteristics (periodicity and base amplitude) and errors (regularity) and 2) the considerable improvement of simulated El Niño power spectratoward lower frequencywhen the atmosphere resolution is significantly increased. Likely reasons for such behavior are briefly discussed. It is argued that this new modular strategy represents a generic approach to identifying the source of both coupled mechanisms and model error and will provide a methodology for guiding model improvement.

Description: A dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice–mixed layer model for the Weddell Sea is complemented by a simple, diagnostic model to account for local sea ice–atmosphere interaction. To consider the atmospheric influence on the oceanic mixed layer, the pycnocline upwelling velocity is calculated using the theory of Ekman pumping. In several experiments, formation and conservation of a polynya in the Weddell Sea are investigated. Intrusion of heat into the lower atmosphere above the polynya area is assumed to cause a thermal perturbation and a cyclonic thermal wind field. Superposed with daily ECMWF surface winds, this modified atmospheric forcing field intensifies oceanic upwelling and induces divergent ice drift. Simulation results indicate that in case of a weak atmospheric cross-polynya flow the formation of a thermal wind field can significantly extend the lifetime of a large polynya. The repeated occurrence of the Weddell polynya in the years 1974–76 thus appears to be an effect of feedback mechanisms between sea ice, atmosphere, and oceanic mixed layer.

Description: A high-resolution model of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation in the North and equatorial Atlantic Ocean is used to study the structure and variability of the boundary current system at 26°N, including the Florida Current, the Antilles Current, and the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The model was developed by Bryan and Holland as a Community Modeling Effort of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Subsequent experiments have been performed at IfM Kiel, with different friction coefficients, and different climatologies of monthly mean wind stress: Hellerman–Rosenstein (HR) and Isemer–Hasse (IH). The southward volume transports in the upper 1000 m of the interior Atlantic, at 26°N, are 25.0 Sv (Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) for HR, and 34.9 Sv for IH forcing, in good agreement with the transport from the integrated Sverdrup balance at this latitude (23.9 Sv for HR, 35.6 Sv for IH). The return flow of this wind-driven transport, plus the southward transport of the DWBC (6–8 Sv), is partitioned between the Florida Current and Antilles Current. With HR forcing, the transport through the Straits of Florida is 23.2 Sv; this increases to 29.1 Sv when the wind stresses of IH are used. The annual variation of the simulated Florida Current is very similar to previous, coarse-resolution models when using the same wind-stress climatology (HR); the annual range (3.4 Sv) obtained with HR forcing is strongly enhanced (6.3 Sv) with IH forcing. The meridional heat transport at 26°N, zonally integrated across the basin, is in phase with the Florida Current; its annual range increases from 0.44 PW (HR) to 0.80 PW (IH). The annual signal east of the Bahamas is masked by strong transport fluctuations on a time scale of O(100 days), caused by an instability of the Antilles Current. By averaging over several model years, an annual cycle is extracted, which is in phase with the wind stress curl over the western part of the basin.

Description: The interaction of clouds with solar and terrestrial radiation is one of the most important topics of climate research. In recent years it has been recognized that only a full three-dimensional (3D) treatment of this interaction can provide answers to many climate and remote sensing problems, leading to the worldwide development of numerous 3D radiative transfer (RT) codes. The international Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes (I3RC), described in this paper, sprung from the natural need to compare the performance of these 3D RT codes used in a variety of current scientific work in the atmospheric sciences. I3RC supports intercomparison and development of both exact and approximate 3D methods in its effort to 1) understand and document the errors/limits of 3D algorithms and their sources; 2) provide “baseline” cases for future code development for 3D radiation; 3) promote sharing and production of 3D radiative tools; 4) derive guidelines for 3D radiative tool selection; and 5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D RT. Results from the two completed phases of I3RC have been presented in two workshops and are expected to guide improvements in both remote sensing and radiative energy budget calculations in cloudy atmospheres.

Description: The ventilation of the permanent thermocline of the Southern Hemisphere gyres is quantified using climatological and synoptic observational data. Ventilation is estimated with three independent methods: the kinematic method provides subduction rates from the vertical and horizontal fluxes through the base of the mixed layer, the water age uses in situ age distribution of thermocline waters, and the annual-mean water mass formation through air–sea interaction is calculated. All three independent estimates agree within their error bars, which are admittedly large. The subduction rates are mainly controlled through their vertical and lateral components with only minor transient eddy contributions. The vertical transfer, derived from Ekman pumping, ventilates over most of the areas of the subtropical gyres, while lateral transfer occurs mainly along the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts, where it injects mode and intermediate waters. For the permanent thermocline the overall ventilation of the South Atlantic is about 21 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Of this, lateral transfer contributes 10 Sv, mainly in the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone and to the northeast of Drake Passage. The effective vertical transfer at the bottom of the mixed layer is only two-thirds of the Ekman pumping due to strong northward forcing of the mixed layer itself. The Indian Ocean is ventilated at a rate of 35 Sv with equal lateral and vertical contributions. The South Pacific's overall ventilation is 44 Sv of which the lateral input contributes little more than half. West of 130°W, the South Pacific is ventilated through Ekman pumping and with only minor lateral transfer. In the east lateral transfer dominates between 10° and 20°S and along the Subantarctic Front in a narrow density range. Combining overall transports with earlier estimates for the Northern Hemisphere gives a ventilation of the World Ocean's permanent thermocline of about 160 Sv. Analysis of atmospheric reanalysis air–sea flux data reveals an overall increase in the formation of thermocline waters for all three Southern Hemisphere oceans.

Description: Different processes have been proposed to explain the large-scale spreading of Mediterranean Water (MW) in the North Atlantic, however, no systematic study comparing the efficiency of different processes is yet available. Here, the authors present a series of experiments in a unified framework that is designed to quantify the effects of several physical processes on the spreading of MW in an idealized model of the North Atlantic. The common technique of restoring temperature and salinity to an observed distribution near the Mediterranean inflow fails to produce an adequate amount of MW because the eastern boundary region near the MW inflow is rather quiescent in models. Diapycnal processes like double diffusion and cabbeling turn out too inefficient to alone account for the large-scale MW anomaly. However, with a preexisting anomaly, double diffusion leads to a considerable northward and zonal redistribution of MW. The density anomaly induced by cabbeling curtails the zonal spreading of MW while it increases the northward spreading. With isopycnal mixing and the weak mean flow that prevails in the outflow region, a spatial distribution of the MW anomaly is obtained that is inconsistent with observations. Unrealistically high diffusion coefficients would be necessary to reproduce the observed salt flux into the Atlantic. The most effective process in the experiments is the volume flux associated with the Atlantic–Mediterranean exchange. The current system that is established in response to the inflow of MW into the Atlantic carries the anomaly almost 30° of longitude into the basin and along the eastern margin up to the northeastern corner of the domain and farther along the northern boundary.

Description: Parameterization of turbulent wind stress and sensible and latent heat fluxes is reviewed in the context of climate studies and model calculations, and specific formulas based on local measurements are recommended. Wind speed is of key importance, and in applying experimental results, the differences between local and modeled winds must be considered in terms of their method of observation or calculation. Climatological wind data based on Beaufort wind force reports require correction for historical trends. Integrated long-term net turbulent and radiative heat fluxes at the sea surface, calculated from archived data, are consistent with meridional heat transport through oceanographic sections; this lends support to the methods used

Description: This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible.

Description: Changes of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) excite wave patterns that readjust the thermocline globally. This paper examines the impact of a freshwater-induced THC shutdown on the depth of the Pacific thermocline and its subsequent modification of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability using an intermediate-complexity global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model and an intermediate ENSO model, respectively. It is shown by performing a numerical eigenanalysis and transient simulations that a THC shutdown in the North Atlantic goes along with reduced ENSO variability because of a deepening of the zonal mean tropical Pacific thermocline. A transient simulation also exhibits abrupt changes of ENSO behavior, depending on the rate of THC change. The global oceanic wave adjustment mechanism is shown to play a key role also on multidecadal time scales. Simulated multidecadal global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns show a large degree of similarity with previous climate reconstructions, suggesting that the observed pan-oceanic variability on these time scales is brought about by oceanic waves and by atmospheric teleconnections.

Description: A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied.Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed.

Description: In this paper, a version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model is used to (i) diagnose the diabatic heating associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (ii) assess the role of this heating in the dynamics of the NAO in the model. Over the North Atlantic sector, the NAO-related diabatic heating is dominated above the planetary boundary layer by the latent heat release associated with precipitation, and within the boundary layer by vertical diffusion associated with sensible heat flux from the ocean. An association between La Niña–El Niño–type conditions in the tropical Pacific and the positive/negative NAO is found in model runs using initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) lower boundary conditions from the period 1982–2001, but not in a companion set of model runs for the period 1962–81. Model experiments are then described in which the NAO-related diabatic heating diagnosed from the 1982–2001 control run is applied as a constant forcing in the model temperature equation using both 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. To assess the local feedback from the diabatic heating, the specified forcing is first restricted to the North Atlantic sector alone. In this case, the model response (in an ensemble mean sense) is suggestive of a weak negative feedback, but exhibits more baroclinic structure and has its centers of action shifted compared to those of the NAO. On the other hand, forcing with only the tropical Pacific part of the diabatic heating leads to a robust model response in both the 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. The model response projects on to the NAO with the same sign as that used to diagnose the forcing, arguing that the link between the tropical Pacific and the NAO is real in the 1982–2001 control run. The missing link in the corresponding run for 1962–81 is a result of a change in the tropical forcing between the two periods, and not the extratropical flow regime.

Description: The roles of ice particle size distributions (SDs) and particle shapes in cirrus cloud solar radiative transfer are investigated by analyzing SDs obtained from optical array probe measurements (particle sizes larger than 20–40 μm) during intensive field observations of the International Cirrus Experiment, the European Cloud and Radiation Experiment, the First ISCCP Regional Experiment, and the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment. It is found that the cloud volume extinction coefficient is more strongly correlated with the total number density than with the effective particle size. Distribution-averaged mean single scattering properties are calculated for hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and polycrystals at a nonabsorbing (0.5 μm), moderately absorbing (1.6 μm), and strongly absorbing (3.0 μm) wavelength. At 0.5 μm (1.6 μm) (3.0 μm), the spread in the resulting mean asymmetry parameters due to different SDs is smaller than (comparable to) (smaller than) the difference caused by applying different particle shapes to these distributions. From a broadband solar radiative transfer point of view it appears more important to use the correct particle shapes than to average over the correct size distributions.

Description: Synoptic-scale variability in the air–sea turbulent fluxes in the areas of midlatitudinal western boundary currents is analyzed. In the Gulf Stream area, ocean–atmosphere fluxes on synoptic time- and space scales are clearly coordinated with the propagating synoptic-scale atmospheric transients. The statistical analysis of 6-hourly resolution sea level pressure and surface turbulent fluxes from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2000 in the area of strong sea surface temperature gradients in the Gulf Stream gives strong proof for the association between the propagating cyclones and synoptic patterns of surface turbulent fluxes. It is shown that sea–air interaction in this area is controlled by the sharpness of surface temperature gradients in the ocean and by the intensity of the advection of the air masses in different parts of cyclones during the cold-air and warm-air outbreaks. A simple parameter based on the joint consideration of the characteristics of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure fields is used to characterize the synoptic variability of air–sea turbulent fluxes. The effectiveness of the relationship between surface temperature and surface pressure on one side and air–sea flux anomalies on the other vary from year to year in phase with variability in the frequencies of deep atmospheric cyclones in the Gulf Stream area. The limits of applicability of the approach, its sensitivity to higher-resolution sea surface temperature data, and the possibility of its further applications are discussed.

Description: A new optical disdrometer has been developed that is optimized for use in high wind speeds, for example, on board ships. The minimal detectable size of droplets is 0.35 mm. Each drop is measured separately with regard to its size and residence time within the sensitive volume. From the available information, the drop size distribution can be calculated with a resolution of 0.05 mm in diameter either by evaluation of the residence time of drops or by drop counting knowing the local wind. Experience shows that using the residence time leads to better results. Rain rates can be determined from the droplet spectra by assuming terminal fall velocity of the drops according to their size. Numerical modeling of disdrometer measurements has been performed, allowing the study of the effect of multiple occupancy of the sensitive volume and grazing incidences on disdrometer measurements. Based on these studies an iterative procedure has been developed to eliminate the impact of these effects on the calculated drop size distributions. This technique may also be applied to any other kind of disdrometer. Long-term simultaneous measurements of the disdrometer and a conventional rain gauge have been used to validate this procedure.

Description: The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) spreading pathways and time scales in the Indian Ocean are investigated using both observational data and two numerical tracer experiments, one being a three-dimensional Lagrangian trajectory experiment and the other a transit-time probability density function (PDF) tracer experiment, in an ocean general circulation model. The model climatology is in agreement with observations and other model results except that speeds of boundary currents are lower. Upon reaching the western boundary within the South Equatorial Current (SEC), the trajectories of the ITF tracers within the thermocline exhibit bifurcation. The Lagrangian trajectory experiment shows that at the western boundary about 38%±5% thermocline ITF water flows southward to join the Agulhas Current, consequently exiting the Indian Ocean, and the rest, about 62%±5%, flows northward to the north of SEC. In boreal summer, ITF water penetrates into the Northern Hemisphere within the Somali Current. The primary spreading pathway of the thermocline ITF water north of SEC is upwelling to the surface layer with subsequent advection southward within the surface Ekman layer toward the southern Indian Ocean subtropics. There it is subducted and advected northward in the upper thermocline to rejoin the SEC. Both the observations and the trajectory experiment suggest that the upwelling occurs mainly along the coast of Somalia during boreal summer and in the open ocean within a cyclonic gyre in the Tropics south of the equator throughout the year. All the ITF water eventually exits the Indian Ocean along the western boundary within the Mozambique Channel and the east coast of Madagascar and, farther south, the Agulhas Current region. The advective spreading time scales, represented by the elapsed time corresponding to the maximum of transit- time PDF, show that in the upper thermocline the ITF crosses the Indian Ocean, from the Makassar Strait to the east coast of the African continent, on a time scale of about 10 yr and reaches the Arabian Sea on a time scale of over 20 yr.

Description: Transient eddies in the atmosphere induce a poleward transport of heat and moisture. A moist static energy budget of the surface layer is determined from the NCEP reanalysis data to evaluate the impact of the storm track. It is found that the transient eddies induce a cooling and drying of the surface layer with a monthly mean maximum of 60 W m−2. The cooling in the midlatitudes extends zonally over the entire basin. The impact of this cooling and drying on surface heat fluxes, sea surface temperature (SST), water mass transformation, and vertical structure of the Pacific is investigated using an ocean model coupled to an atmospheric mixed layer model. The cooling by atmospheric storms is represented by adding an eddy-induced transfer velocity to the mean velocity in an atmospheric mixed layer model. This is based on a parameterization of tracer transport by eddies in the ocean. When the atmospheric mixed layer model is coupled to an ocean model, realistic SSTs are simulated. The SST is up to 3 K lower due to the cooling by storms. The additional cooling leads to enhanced transformation rates of water masses in the midlatitudes. The enhanced shallow overturning cells affect even tropical regions. Together with realistic SST and deep winter mixed layer depths, this leads to formation of homogeneous water masses in the upper North Pacific, in accordance to observations.

Description: The circulation of the low-salinity Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic and the associated dynamical processes are studied, using recent and historical hydrographic profiles, Lagrangian and Eulerian current measurements as well as wind stress observations. The circulation pattern inferred for the Antarctic Intermediate Water supports the hypothesis of an anticyclonic basinwide recirculation of the intermediate water in the subtropics. The eastward current of the intermediate anticyclone is fed mainly by water recirculated in the Brazil Current and by the Malvinas Current. An additional source region is the Polar Frontal zone of the South Atlantic. The transport in the meandering eastward current ranges from 6 to 26 Sv (Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)). The transport of the comparably uniform westward flow of the gyre varies between 10 and 30 Sv. Both transports vary with longitude. At the western boundary near 28 degreesS, in the Santos Bifurcation, the westward current splits into two branches. About three-quarters of the 19 Sv at 40 degreesW go south as an intermediate western boundary current. The remaining quarter flows northward along the western boundary. Simulations with a simple model of the ventilated thermocline reveal that the wind-driven subtropical gyre has a vertical extent of over 1200 m. The transports derived from the simulations suggest that about 90% of the transport in the westward branch of the intermediate gyre and about 50% of the transport in the eastward branch can be attributed to the wind-driven circulation. The structure of the simulated gyre deviates from observations to some extent. The discrepancies between the simulations and the observations are most likely caused by the interoceanic exchange south of Africa, the dynamics of the boundary currents, the nonlinearity, and the seasonal variability of the wind field. A simulation with an inflow/outflow condition for the eastern boundary reduces the transport deviations in the eastward current to about 20%. The results support the hypothesis that the wind field is of major importance for the subtropical circulation of Antarctic Intermediate Water followed by the interoceanic exchange. The simulations suggest that the westward transport in the subtropical gyre undergoes seasonal variations. The transports and the structure of the intermediate subtropical gyre from the Parallel Ocean Climate Model (Semtner-Chervin model) agree better with observations.

Description: The quasi-decadal salinity fluctuations in the upper 300 m of the Labrador Sea are investigated by partitioning all available salinity station data since 1948 by region and bottom depth. There are major freshwater anomalies in the early 1970s (the Great Salinity Anomaly), mid-1980s, and early 1990s. These vary in amplitude throughout the region, being least on the shelf and greatest over the slope region near the Labrador Current. The Labrador Sea cannot be considered a simple conduit for freshwater anomalies originating in the East Greenland Current. There is evidence that local processes modulate the anomaly. The freshwater anomalies in the Labrador Current are approximately twice as large as those in the East Greenland Current. The Baffin Island Current flowing southward through the western Davis Strait is the only local source of freshwater with sufficient volume to account for this increase. The propagation speed, 2–3 cm s−1, of the anomaly along the Labrador Sea margin is much less than the advection speed indicating a highly damped system. The connection of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with these quasi-decadal salinity fluctuations is most obvious in the Labrador Sea interior, where increased surface buoyancy flux during positive NAO drives deep convective mixing and thus terminates the fresh surface anomalies. Less clear are the processes by which NAO-forced changes of lateral freshwater flux modulate the salinity along the margin. The authors propose a feedback mechanism where, during years of low wind speed, freshwater accumulates offshore of the slope front in the surface layer. The increased upper-layer buoyancy prohibits further mixing, and low salinities persist.

Description: In 1997, a unique hydrographic and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC: component CFC-11) dataset was obtained in the subpolar North Atlantic. To estimate the synopticity of the 1997 data, the recent temporal evolution of the CFC and Labrador Sea Water (LSW) thickness fields are examined. In the western Atlantic north of 50°N, the LSW thickness decreased considerably from 1994–97, while the mean CFC concentrations did not change much. South of 50°N and in the eastern Atlantic, the CFC concentration increased with little or no change in the LSW thickness. On shorter timescales, local anomalies due to the presence of eddies are observed, but for space scales larger than the eddies the dataset can be treated as being synoptic over the 1997 observation period. The spreading of LSW in the subpolar North Atlantic is described in detail using gridded CFC and LSW thickness fields combined with Profiling Autonomous Lagrangian Circulation Explorer (PALACE) float trajectories. The gridded fields are also used to calculate the CFC-11 inventory in the LSW from 40° to 65°N, and from 10° to 60°W. In total, 2300 ± 250 tons of CFC-11 (equivalent to 16.6 million moles) were brought into the LSW by deep convection. In 1997, 28% of the inventory was still found in the Labrador Sea west of 45°W and 31% of the inventory was located in the eastern Atlantic. The CFC inventory in the LSW was used to estimate the lower limits of LSW formation rates. At a constant formation rate, a value of 4.4–5.6 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) is obtained. If the denser modes of LSW are ventilated only in periods with intense convection, the minimum formation rate of LSW in 1988–94 is 8.1–10.8 Sv, and 1.8–2.4 Sv in 1995–97

Description: The depth of winter convection in the central Labrador Sea is strongly influenced by the prevailing stratification in late summer. For this late summer stratification salinity is as important as temperature, and in the upper water layers salinity even dominates. To analyze the source of the spring and summer freshening in the central region, seasonal freshwater cycles have been constructed for the interior Labrador Sea, the West Greenland Current, and the Labrador Current. It is shown that none of the local freshwater sources is responsible for the spring–summer freshening in the interior, which appears to occur in two separate events in April to May and July to September. Comparing the timing and volume estimates of the seasonal freshwater cycles of the boundary currents with the central Labrador Sea helps in understanding the origin of the interior freshwater signals. The first smaller pulse cannot be attributed clearly to either of the boundary currents. The second one is about three times stronger and supplies 60% of the seasonal summer freshwater. Transport estimates and calculated mixing properties provide evidence that its source is the West Greenland Current. The finding implies a connection also on interannual time scales between Labrador Sea surface salinity and freshwater sources in the West Greenland Current and farther upstream in the East Greenland Current. The freshwater input from the West Greenland Current thus also is the likely pathway for the known modulation of Labrador Sea Water mass formation by freshwater export from the Arctic (via the East Greenland Current), which implies some predictability on longer time scales.

Description: Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of surface zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST), 20° isotherm depth, and surface zonal current observations (between 1990 and 2004) identifies three coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the tropical Pacific: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual cycle, and a mode with a 14–18-month period, which is referred to as sub-ENSO in this study. The sub-ENSO mode accounts for the near 18-month (near annual) variability prior to (following) the 1997/98 El Niño event. It was strongest during this El Niño event, with SST anomalies exceeding 1°C. Sub-ENSO peak SST anomalies are ENSO-like in structure and are associated with eastward propagating heat content variations. However, the SST anomalies are preceded by and in near quadrature with relatively strong remotely forced westward propagating zonal current variations, suggesting the sub-ENSO mode arises from the zonal-advective feedback. The sub-ENSO mode is found to exist also in an intermediate complexity model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A heat budget analysis of the model’s sub-ENSO mode shows it indeed arises from the zonal-advective feedback. In the model, both ENSO and sub-ENSO modes coexist, but there is a weak nonlinear interaction between them. Experiments also show that the observed changes in sub-ENSO’s characteristics may be explained by changes in the relative importance of zonal and vertical advection SST tendencies.

Description: Time series of hydrographic and transient tracer (3H and 3He) observations from the central Labrador Sea collected between 1991 and 1996 are presented to document the complex changes in the tracer fields as a result of variations in convective activity during the 1990s. Between 1991 and 1993, as atmospheric forcing intensified, convection penetrated to progressively increasing depths, reaching 2300 m in the winter of 1993. Over that period the potential temperature (θ)/salinity (S) properties of Labrador Sea Water stayed nearly constant as surface cooling and downward mixing of freshwater was balanced by excavating and upward mixing of the warmer and saltier Northeast Atlantic Deep Water. It is shown that the net change in heat content of the water column (150–2500 m) between 1991 and 1993 was negligible compared to the estimated mean heat loss over that period (110 W m−2), implying that the lateral convergence of heat into the central Labrador Sea nearly balances the atmospheric cooling on a surprisingly short timescale. Interestingly, the 3H–3He age of Labrador Sea Water increased during this period of intensifying convection. Starting in 1995, winters were milder and convection was restricted to the upper 800 m. Between 1994 and 1996, the evolution of 3H–3He age is similar to that of a stagnant water body. In contrast, the increase in θ and S over that period implies exchange of tracers with the boundaries via both an eddy-induced overturning circulation and along-isopycnal stirring by eddies [with an exchange coefficient of O(500 m2 s−1)]. The authors construct a freshwater budget for the Labrador Sea and quantitatively demonstrate that sea ice meltwater is the dominant cause of the large annual cycle of salinity in the Labrador Sea, both on the shelf and the interior. It is shown that the transport of freshwater by eddies into the central Labrador Sea (140 cm between March and September) can readily account for the observed seasonal freshening. Finally, the authors discuss the role of the eddy-induced overturning circulation with regard to transport and dispersal of the newly ventilated Labrador Sea Water to the boundary current system and compare its strength (2–3 Sv) to the diagnosed buoyancy-forced formation rate of Labrador Sea Water.

Description: The compatibility of the Gent and McWilliams thickness mixing parameterization with perturbation thickness fluxes evaluated from eddy-resolving North Atlantic model results is investigated. After extensive spatial and temporal averaging, a linear correlation between the parameterized fluxes and those calculated directly from model fluctuations in the subtropics could be found. A direct estimate of a constant mixing parameter κ could be inferred in the order of 1.0 × 107 cm2 s−1.

Description: A simple point-vortex “heton” model is used to study localized ocean convection. In particular, the statistically steady state that is established when lateral buoyancy transfer, effected by baroclinic instability, offsets the localized surface buoyancy loss is investigated. Properties of the steady state, such as the statistically steady density anomaly of the convection region, are predicted using the hypothesis of a balance between baroclinic eddy transfer and the localized surface buoyancy loss. These predictions compare favorably with the values obtained through numerical integration of the heton model. The steady state of the heron model can be related to that in other convection scenarios considered in several recent studies by means of a generalized description of the localized convection. This leads to predictions of the equilibrium density anomalies in these scenarios, which concur with those obtained by other authors. Advantages of the heton model include its inviscid nature, emphasizing the independence of the fluxes affected by the baroclinic eddies from molecular processes, and its extreme economy, allowing a very large parameter space to be covered. This economy allows us to examine more complicated forcing scenarios: for example, forcing regions of varying shape. By increasing the ellipticity of the forcing region, the instability is modified by the shape and, as a result, no increase in lateral fluxes occurs despite the increased perimeter length. The parameterization of convective mixing by a redistribution of potential vorticity, implicit in the heton model, is corroborated; the heton model equilibrium state has analogous quantitative scaling behavior to that in models or laboratory experiments that resolve the vertical motions. The simplified dynamics of the heton model therefore allows the adiabatic advection resulting from baroclinic instability to be examined in isolation from vertical mixing and diffusive processes. These results demonstrate the importance of baroclinic instability in controlling the properties of a water mass generated by localized ocean convection. A complete parameterization of this process must therefore account for the fluxes induced by horizontal variations in surface buoyancy loss and affected by baroclinic instability.

Description: The interannual heat content variability in the tropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied. The baroclinic ocean response to stochastic wind stress predicted by a simple analytical model is compared with two integrations of the ECHO-G coupled general circulation model. In one integration, ocean–atmosphere interactions are suppressed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, so that this integration does not simulate ENSO. In the other integration, interactions are allowed everywhere and ENSO is simulated. The results show that basinwide variability in the SIO heat content can be produced by two mechanisms: 1) oscillatory forcing by ENSO-related wind stress and 2) temporally stochastic and spatially coherent wind stress forcing. Previous studies have shown that transmission of energy from the tropical Pacific to the southern Indian Ocean occurs through coastal Kelvin waves along the western coast of Australia. The results in this paper confirm the occurrence of such transmission. In the ECHO-G simulations, this transmission occurs both at the annual time scale and at interannual time scales. Generation of offshore Rossby waves by these coastal Kelvin waves at interannual time scales—and, in particular, at the ENSO time scale—was found.

Description: The dynamics of the Rhine outflow plume in the proximity of the river mouth is investigated by using remote sensing data and numerical simulations. The remote sensing data consist of 41 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired by the First and Second European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 over the outflow region of the river Rhine. Most of them show sea surface signatures of oceanic phenomena, for example, surface current and wind variations, ship wakes, and oil slicks. In particular, in 36 of these images pronounced frontal features are visible as narrow zones of mainly enhanced, sometimes enhanced/reduced radar backscatter that can be associated with the Rhine surface front. Within the area enclosed by the frontal line, large zones characterized by a lower radar backscatter than in the outer area are often visible. The analysis of the ERS SAR images suggests that the form and the location of the frontal features are mainly linked to the semidiurnal tidal phase in the outflow region, although their variability suggests also that they weakly depend on river discharge, residual currents, and neap-spring tidal cycle. In order to test this observational hypothesis, the results obtained from the analysis of the ERS SAR images are compared with the results obtained from the numerical simulation of the hydrodynamics of the Rhine outflow region carried out using a two-layer, frontal model, which is based on the nonlinear, hydrostatic shallow-water equations on an f plane. The model is forced by prescribing tidal and residual currents and river discharge at the open boundaries. Several simulations are performed by varying the values of these forcing parameters. The numerical results corroborate the observational conjecture: It is found that the form and the location of the simulated interface outcropping lines in the proximity of the river mouth are mainly determined by the semidiurnal tidal phase in the outflow region and that river discharge, residual currents, and neap-spring tidal cycle contribute only secondarily to their determination. Inserting the simulated surface velocity field into a simple radar-imaging model that relates the modulation of the backscattered radar power to the surface velocity convergence in radar look direction, narrow, elongated bands of enhanced radar backscatter emerge near the model frontal line while patches of low radar backscatter appear within the simulated Rhine plume area. The consistency of the model results with the results obtained from the analysis of the SAR images enables one to infer a mean spatial and temporal evolution of the Rhine outflow plume over a semidiurnal tidal cycle from the analysis of spaceborne SAR images acquired during different tidal cycles over the Rhine outflow area and suggests the possibility of using numerical modeling, in conjunction with the analysis of spaceborne measurements, for monitoring the oceanic variability in the Rhine outflow area

Description: The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5 degrees N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude.Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m-as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006-varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5 degrees N on interannual to decadal time scales.

Description: A coupled global atmosphere–ocean model of intermediate complexity is used to study the influence of glacial boundary conditions on the atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum in a systematical manner. A web of atmospheric interactions is disentangled, which involves changes in the meridional temperature gradient and an associated modulation of the atmospheric baroclinicity. This in turn drives anomalous transient eddy momentum fluxes that feed back onto the zonal mean circulation. Moreover, the modified transient activity (weakened in the North Pacific and strengthened in the North Atlantic) leads to a meridional reorganization of the atmospheric heat transport, thereby feeding back onto the meridional temperature structure. Furthermore, positive barotropic conversion and baroclinic production rates over the Laurentide ice sheets and the far eastern North Pacific have the tendency to decelerate the westerlies, thereby feeding back to the stationary wave changes triggered by orographic forcing.

Description: Two state-of-the-art profiling floats were equipped with novel optode-based oceanographic oxygen sensors. Both floats were simultaneously deployed in the central Labrador Sea gyre on 7 September 2003. They drift at a depth of 800 db and perform weekly profiles of temperature, salinity, and oxygen in the upper 2000 m of the water column. The initial results from the first 6 months of operation are presented. Data are compared with a small hydrographic oxygen survey of the deployment site. They are further examined for measurement quality, including precision, accuracy, and drift aspects. The first 28 profiles obtained are of high quality and show no detectable sensor drift. A method of long-term drift control is described and a few suggestions for the operation protocol are provided.

Description: Comparisons are made between a time series of meteorological surface layer observational data taken on board the R/V Knorr, and model analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The observational data were gathered during a winter cruise of the R/V Knorr, from 6 February to 13 March 1997, as part of the Labrador Sea Deep Convection Experiment. The surface layer observations generally compare well with both model representations of the wintertime atmosphere. The biases that exist are mainly related to discrepancies in the sea surface temperature or the relative humidity of the analyses. The surface layer observations are used to generate bulk estimates of the surface momentum flux, and the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These are then compared with the model-generated turbulent surface fluxes. The ECMWF surface sensible and latent heat flux time series compare reasonably well, with overestimates of only 13% and 10%, respectively. In contrast, the NCEP model overestimates the bulk fluxes by 51% and 27%, respectively. The differences between the bulk estimates and those of the two models are due to different surface heat flux algorithms. It is shown that the roughness length formula used in the NCEP reanalysis project is inappropriate for moderate to high wind speeds. Its failings are acute for situations of large air–sea temperature difference and high wind speed, that is, for areas of high sensible heat fluxes such as the Labrador Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the Gulf Stream, and the Kuroshio. The new operational NCEP bulk algorithm is found to be more appropriate for such areas. It is concluded that surface turbulent flux fields from the ECMWF are within the bounds of observational uncertainty and therefore suitable for driving ocean models. This is in contrast to the surface flux fields from the NCEP reanalysis project, where the application of a more suitable algorithm to the model surface-layer meteorological data is recommended

Description: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

Description: On the basis of the collection of individual marine observations available from the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, major parameters of the sea state were evaluated. Climatological fields of wind waves and swell height and period, as well as significant wave height and resultant period are obtained for the North Atlantic Ocean for the period from 1964 to 1993. Validation of the results against instrumental records from National Data Buoy Center buoys and ocean weather station measurements indicate relatively good agreement for wave height and systematic biases in the visually estimated periods that were corrected. Wave age, which is important for wind stress estimates, was evaluated form wave and wind observations. The climatology of wave age indicates younger waves in winter in the North Atlantic midlatitudes and Tropics. Wave age estimates were applied to the calculations of the wind stress using parameterizations from field experiments. Differences between wave-age-based and traditional estimates are not negligible in wintertime in midlatitudes and Tropics where wave-induced stress contributes from 5% to 15% to the total stress estimates. Importance of the obtained effects for ocean circulation and climate variability is discussed.

Description: Aspects of the sea level changes in the western Mediterranean Sea are investigated using a numerical tidal model of the Strait of Gibraltar. As a prerequisite, the performance of this model, that is, a two-dimensional, nonlinear, two-layer, boundary-fitted coordinate numerical model based on the hydrostatic approximation on an f plane, is assessed in the simulation of mean and tidal circulation of the Strait of Gibraltar. The model is forced by imposing mean interface and surface displacements as well as M2, S2, O1, and K1 tidal components along the Atlantic and Mediterranean model open boundaries. Model results are compared with observations and with results obtained from a tidal inverse model for the eastern entrance of the Strait of Gibraltar. In general, good agreement is found. A sensitivity study performed by varying different model parameters shows that the model behaves reasonably well in the simulation of the averaged circulation. The model is then used to investigate the climatological sensitivity of the simulated dynamics in the Strait of Gibraltar to changes in the density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. For this purpose, given a certain density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, the authors iteratively searched for that sea level drop between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean that fulfills the mass balance of the Mediterranean. It is found that an increase of the density difference leads to an increase of the exchange flow and to an increase of the sea level drop between the two basins. A trend in the sea level drop of O(1 cm yr−1), such as the one observed between 1994 and 1997, is explained by the model as the result of a trend of O(10−4 yr−1) in the relative density difference between the Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. The observed north–south asymmetry in this trend is also captured by the model, and it is found to arise from changes in the along-strait velocity. Results suggest that the dynamics within the Strait of Gibraltar cannot be neglected when sea level changes in the western Mediterranean basin are investigated.

Description: The so-called equatorial stacked jets are analyzed with ship-board observations and moored time series from the Atlantic Ocean. The features are identified and isolated by comparing vertical wavenumber spectra at the equator with those a few degrees from the equator. Mode-filtering gives clear views of the jets in meridional sections, the typical extent being ±1° in latitude. The vertical structure can be well described (explaining 82% of the variance) by N−1-stretched cosines, with a Gaussian amplitude tapering in the vertical. The stretched wavelengths are somewhat variable. Fitting jets of a fixed (stretched) wavelength to four moored sensors in the depth range 1300–1900 m, allows one to track the vertical phase of the jets with an rms error of 30°–45°. The resulting fit from a 20-month moored time series shows long periods of unchanging jet conditions and intermittent times of high variability. There is no significant vertical propagation on these timescales nor a seasonal reversal. Using a composite from many different experiments, interannual variability is visible, however. A possible mechanism for the stacked jets is inertial instability, resulting from background meridional shears at the equator. A condition is that the Ertel potential vorticity becomes zero somewhere, due to meridional asymmetries in the zonal flows. The ship-board observations show that this may be approximately fulfilled by the instantaneous zonal low-mode flows at various depths, resulting from an excess of zonal momentum south of the equator most of the time. Inertial instability should act to redistribute this zonal momentum, and our mooring data show indeed persistent northward momentum flux, but not at the depth levels expected. The momentum transport might suggest that the jets can also flux or mix other properties across the equator.

Description: The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

Description: Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediate-depth (150–900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local 1°C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.24°C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 1°C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75–90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice–ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28–35 cm of ice thickness after 50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m−2 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

Description: The importance of decadal climate variability (DCV) research is being increasingly recognized, including by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An improved understanding of DCV is very important because stakeholders and policymakers want to know the likely climate trajectory for the coming decades for applications to water resources, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure development. Responding to this demand, many climate modeling groups in the United States, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere are gearing up to assess the potential for decadal climate predictions. The magnitudes of regional DCV often exceed those associated with the trends resulting from anthropogenic changes. Therefore, differentiating between the two is also very important for planning, implementation, and national and international treaties.

Description: The multidecadal climate variability in the North Pacific region is investigated by using a 2000-yr-long integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that the multidecadal variability evolves largely independent of the variations in the tropical Pacific, so that this kind of multidecadal variability may be regarded as internal to the North Pacific. The coupled model results suggest that the multidecadal variability can be explained by the dynamical ocean response to stochastic wind stress forcing. Superimposed on the red background variability, a multidecadal mode with a period of about 40 yr is simulated by the coupled model. This mode can be understood through the concept of spatial resonance between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Description: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) involves study and intercomparison of multimodel simulations of present and future climate. The simulations of the future use idealized forcing in which CO, increase is compounded 1% yr(-1) until it doubles (near year 70) with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic sub-projects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the time of the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia, in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multicentury surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models are now usually around 2.5degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial Tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric resolutions of around 1.5degrees latitude - longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate simulations with a variety of forcings e.g., volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases, with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well. However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models are still present in the current generation (e.g., overextensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and commencement of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which is leading to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, and twentieth-, twenty-first, and twenty-second-century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort.

Description: In the Gulf of Lions, observations of deep convection have been sporadically carried out over the past three decades, showing significant interannual variability of convection activity. As long time series of meteorological observations of the region are available from coastal stations, heat flux time series for the Gulf of Lions for the individual winters from 1969 to 1994 are derived by calibrating these observations against direct measurements obtained over the convection site. These heat fluxes are also compared against heat fluxes obtained by the French PERIDOT weather model for the winter of 1991/92. A Kraus–Turner one-dimensional mixed layer model is initialized by climatological mean temperature and salinity profiles and then driven by the heat flux time series of the individual years. Resulting convection depths are in satisfactory agreement with existing observational evidence, showing the dominance of interannual variability of local forcing on convection variability. The interannual variability of convection depth causes interannual variations in deep-water properties, and these are also compared with the hydrographic database.

Description: The solar radiative properties of cirrus clouds depend on ice particle shape, size, and orientation, as well as on the spatial cloud structure. Radiation schemes in atmospheric circulation models rely on estimates of cloud optical thickness only. In the present work, a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code is applied to various cirrus cloud scenarios to obtain the radiative response of uncertainties in the above-mentioned microphysical and spatial cloud properties (except orientation). First, plane-parallel homogeneous (0D) clouds with different crystal shapes (hexagonal columns, irregular polycrystals) and 114 different size distributions have been considered. The resulting variabilities in the solar radiative fluxes are in the order of a few percent for the reflected and about 1% for the diffusely transmitted fluxes. Largest variabilities in the order of 10% to 30% are found for the solar broadband absorptance. However, these variabilities are smaller than the flux differences caused by the choice of ice particle geometries. The influence of cloud inhomogeneities on the radiative fluxes has been examined with the help of time series of Raman lidar extinction coefficient profiles as input for the radiative transfer calculations. Significant differences between results for inhomogeneous and plane-parallel clouds were found. These differences are in the same order of magnitude as those arising from using extremely different crystal shapes for the radiative transfer calculations. From this sensitivity study, the ranking of cirrus cloud properties according to their importance in solar broadband radiative transfer is optical thickness, ice crystal shape, ice particle size, and spatial structure.

Description: The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions of the World Ocean where deep convection takes place. Several moorings across the Labrador continental slope just north of Hamilton Bank show that convection does take place within the Labrador Current. Mixing above the lower Labrador slope is facilitated by the onshore along-isopycnal intrusions of low-potential-vorticity eddies that weaken the stratification, combined with baroclinic instability that sustains slanted mixing while restratifying the water column through horizontal fluxes. Above the shelf break, the Irminger seawater core is displaced onshore while the stratification weakens with the increase in isopycnal slope. The change in stratification is partially due to the onshore shift of the “classical” Labrador Current, baroclinic instability, and possibly slantwise convection.

Description: Sampling uncertainties in the voluntary observing ship (VOS)-based global ocean–atmosphere flux fields were estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as well as seasonal forecasts without data assimilation. Air–sea fluxes were computed from 6-hourly reanalyzed individual variables using state-of-the-art bulk formulas. Individual variables and computed fluxes were subsampled to simulate VOS-like sampling density. Random simulation of the number of VOS observations and simulation of the number of observations with contemporaneous sampling allowed for estimation of random and total sampling uncertainties respectively. Although reanalyses are dependent on VOS, constituting an important part of data assimilation input, it is assumed that the reanalysis fields adequately reproduce synoptic variability at the sea surface. Sampling errors were quantified by comparison of the regularly sampled (i.e., 6 hourly) and subsampled monthly fields of surface variables and fluxes. In poorly sampled regions random sampling errors amount to 2.5°–3°C for air temperature, 3 m s−1 for the wind speed, 2–2.5 g kg−1 for specific humidity, and 15%–20% of the total cloud cover. The highest random sampling errors in surface fluxes were found for the sensible and latent heat flux and range from 30 to 80 W m−2. Total sampling errors in poorly sampled areas may be higher than random ones by 60%. In poorly sampled subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and throughout much of the Southern Ocean the total sampling uncertainty in the net heat flux can amount to 80–100 W m−2. The highest values of the uncertainties associated with the interpolation/extrapolation into unsampled grid boxes are found in subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres for the turbulent fluxes, where they can be comparable with the sampling errors. Simple dependencies of the sampling errors on the number of samples and the magnitude of synoptic variability were derived. Sampling errors estimated from different reanalyses and from seasonal forecasts yield qualitatively comparable spatial patterns, in which the actual values of uncertainties are controlled by the magnitudes of synoptic variability. Finally, estimates of sampling uncertainties are compared with the other errors in air–sea fluxes and the reliability of the estimates obtained is discussed.