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  • 1
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    Vulnerability of lowland and upland orchids in their spatially response to climate change and land cover change (2024)
    In:  Ecological Informatics vol. 80 no. 102534
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-18
    Beschreibung: Climate change and land cover change often interactively affect plant species distributions. This study addresses the vulnerability of lowland and upland orchids to climate change and land cover change. Endemic orchids of New Guinea were grouped into four classes (lowland epiphyte, lowland terrestrial, upland epiphyte, upland terrestrial) based on their life form and elevation range. Forty occurrence records of endemic orchids were selected for each class, totaling 160 occurrence records. Ensemble modelling combining two machine learning algorithms was used to generate predictive current and future suitable areas for orchid classes. Model performance was evaluated using the AUC and TSS metrics. Suitable areas for both lowland and upland orchids (epiphyte and terrestrial) were predicted decrease in the future due to climate change and land cover change. The loss of suitable areas for upland terrestrial orchids was predicted to be most significant in the worst-case climate change scenario (SSP 5–8.5). Both lowland and upland orchids (epiphyte and terrestrial) tend to shift to higher elevation ranges from the present distributions. The predictive models have AUC values 〉0.90 and TSS value 〉0.80, indicating the models have excellent potential for predicting the impact of climate change and land cover change on orchid distributions.
    Schlagwort(e): Ensemble model ; Climate change ; Species distribution model ; Orchids ; Lowland ; Upland ; New Guinea
    Repository-Name: National Museum of Natural History, Netherlands
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    A Collagen10a1 mutation disrupts cell polarity in a medaka model for metaphyseal chondrodysplasia type Schmid (2024)
    Elsevier BV
    In:  iScience vol. 27 no. 109405
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-18
    Beschreibung: Heterozygous mutations in COL10A1 lead to metaphyseal chondrodysplasia type Schmid (MCDS), a skeletal disorder characterized by epiphyseal abnormalities. Prior analysis revealed impaired trimerization and intracellular retention of mutant collagen type X alpha 1 chains as cause for elevated endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress. However, how ER stress translates into structural defects remained unclear. We generated a medaka (Oryzias latipes) MCDS model harboring a 5 base pair deletion in col10a1, which led to a frameshift and disruption of 11 amino acids in the conserved trimerization domain. col10a1D633a heterozygotes recapitulated key features of MCDS and revealed early cell polarity defects as cause for dysregulated matrix secretion and deformed skeletal structures. Carbamazepine, an ER stress -reducing drug, rescued this polarity impairment and alleviated skeletal defects in col10a1D633a heterozygotes. Our data imply cell polarity dysregulation as a potential contributor to MCDS and suggest the col10a1D633a medaka mutant as an attractive MCDS animal model for drug screening.
    Repository-Name: National Museum of Natural History, Netherlands
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Harnessing Modern 3D Gravity Analysis Techniques: A Study of the Ligurian Offshore Area (2024)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: This interdisciplinary study describes the integration of gravity field analysis, curvature techniques and various spatial applications. The data are based on land-based Free Air and Bouguer gravity data from the AlpArray Gravity Research Group, complemented by recent satellite missions. New seismic and seismological data from the AlpArray initiative and the German MB-4D Priority Program were used as independent boundary conditions for the 3D modeling and inversion of the gravity data. Prior to this modeling, Euler deconvolution, terracing/clustering techniques, and advanced filtering methods were employed to reveal intricate details of the region's gravitational signatures. For example, a distinct zoning of gravity is observed in the central part of the Ligurian Sea, pointing to traces of past rifting processes. Analysis of various curvature parameters (e.g., dip-, min-, max- and shape-curvature) of the processed gravity fields, in particular gradients and residual fields support the identified zonation of the gravity fields, which reflect the geological structures in the crust. The final 3D modeling of the Ligurian Sea area is based on a previous density model of the entire Alpine region and includes density distribution of the upper mantle. These densities were derived from tomographic velocity models, accounting for petrology, temperature, and pressure. Additional information of the upper crust was obtained from the refraction seismic results of the LOBSTER project, offering a comprehensive understanding of spatial phenomena. Calculations of the gravitational potential energy (GPE) provide additional information on local stresses, facilitating a deeper understanding of the flexural rigidity in the area. By elucidating the relationship between processing techniques and 3D modeling, this work advances interdisciplinary interpretation crucial for geological studies in the Ligurian offshore area.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
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    Improving recharge-controlled groundwater level behavior in a transient data-driven 3D model (2024)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: Data-driven models are powerful tools for analyzing the evolution of groundwater flow and thermal field in response to hydrometeorological forcing. However, they usually come with uncertainties in flux boundary conditions and in the distribution of rock properties. To overcome this, we coupled a subsurface 3D model of Brandenburg (NE Germany) with the distributed hydrologic model mHM to simulate a 60-year-long monthly time series of regional groundwater dynamics. Recharge fluxes, derived from mHM and assigned to the top of the saturated subsurface model, allowed us to reproduce magnitudes of seasonal groundwater level fluctuations as observed in shallow monitoring wells (0-5 m). However, approximating the multi-annual periodicity that is pronounced in deeper wells (10-30 m) and the long-term decline in groundwater levels recorded in parts of Brandenburg has proven to be more challenging. This highlights the need to consider damping the infiltration signal in order to better approximate the delayed response of the subsurface to the imposed precipitation pulses, as well as additional sinks contributing to the loss of groundwater storage. To this purpose, we analyzed the frequency of groundwater level fluctuations in 〉100 observation wells as a function of the unsaturated zone thickness and compared them against the results obtained from a 1D analytical model solution. The established relationship of recharge damping with depth was then utilized to correct the flux boundary conditions. This, along with optimization of river network density and aquifer storativity, resulted in an improved match in modeled versus monitored hydraulic heads. This enables further use of the coupled groundwater and surface-water model for ongoing forecasting studies of the thermo-hydraulic evolution of the aquifer system with respect to climate scenarios.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 5
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    Regional effects of paleoclimate history on the subsurface temperature distribution in Germany (2024)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: Knowledge of the underground temperature distribution is crucial for evaluating geothermal potential and ensuring the long-term safety of heat-producing waste in repositories. Previous research, mainly conducted in Northern Europe and Canada, has shown that the Pleistocene Glaciations have an additive effect, resulting in a cooling of several degrees Celsius at depths of up to two kilometers. Recent studies indicate that the Last Glacial Period and the recent warming of the past 100–150 years have the greatest paleoclimatic impact on the current shallow to medium depth subsurface temperature distribution in Germany. If thermophysical properties of the subsurface are known, the distribution of underground temperatures can also be used to reconstruct the local ground surface temperature history using borehole climatology. Ground surface temperature reconstructions have low temporal resolutions, but they are directly reconstructed from temperature measurements without the use of climate proxies. Observations of the subsurface temperature distribution are limited to boreholes that are undisturbed by drilling or operations like production tests. Furthermore, the coupling of ground surface temperatures and surface air temperatures presents a significant challenge due to complex and transient surface processes associated with soil types, precipitation, vegetation, and the distribution of water bodies and glaciers. A systematic study of the paleoclimatic impact on the subsurface temperature distribution in sedimentary regions in Germany has not yet been conducted. Moreover, borehole climatology studies in Canada and Northern Europe has mainly concentrated on local reconstructions of ground surface temperatures, focusing on single or a limited number of boreholes. The aim of this study is to investigate the paleoclimatic effect of the Holocene on the subsurface temperature distribution in Germany and to quantify regional variations in the ground surface temperature histories. To achieve this, we have identified wells in sedimentary regions across the country that satisfy the prerequisites for borehole climatology. By using geophysical well logs, we derive the thermophysical characterization of the subsurface. We are examining the continuous temperature profiles to determine the magnitude, and regional variability of the Holocene paleoclimatic signal in borehole temperature profiles throughout Germany.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
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    A diminishing stabilizer? Studies on the influence of ice and gas hydrates on the geo-mechanical properties of sediments. (2024)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: Natural gas hydrates form at elevated pressure and low temperatures in the presence of sufficient quantities of gas and water and have therefore been discovered on all continental margins and in permafrost regions. In the marine hydrate-bearing sediments, gas hydrates, depending on their content, can transform a loose sediment into a consolidated rock with a strongly increased strength. In permafrost regions the hydrate stability zone can extent deep into the ice-bearing permafrost and, therefore, both, ice and hydrate can consolidate the sediment. However, the strength of methane hydrate is much higher than that of ice, which behaves much more ductile. Consequently, the resulting strength of a sediment, containing both components, strongly depends on the ice to hydrate ratio. Conversely, the decomposition of natural gas hydrates in marine or permafrost sediments leads to a reduction in the mechanical strength of the host sediment. In addition, the release of gas can create overpressure in the pore spaces, reducing the effective stress and leading to instabilities in the sediment structure. Since both continental margins and permafrost regions are used by humans for various activities that largely depend on the mechanical stability of the sediments, knowledge of the main factors and processes that determine the stability of weakly consolidated sediments is crucial. Both the thawing of ice and the decomposition of gas hydrates in permafrost soils lead to a change in the geo-mechanical properties of the host sediment. The residual and peak shear strengths of ice- and hydrate-bearing sediments were investigated using a ring shear cell developed at the GFZ. Based on literature data and our results, we discuss the dependence of the geo-mechanical properties of sediments on ice and hydrate saturation and the possible consequences if their proportion diminishes.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 7
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    The Mekong River Basin : Ecohydrological Complexity from Catchment to Coast (2024)
    Elsevier
    In:  Ecohydrological Complexity from Catchment to Coast
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: The Mekong River Basin: Ecohydrological Complexity from Catchment to Coast, Volume Three presents real facts, data and predictions for quantifying human-induced changes throughout the Mekong watershed, including its estuaries and coasts, and proposes solutions to decrease or mitigate the negative effect and enable sustainable development. This is the first work to link socio–ecological interaction study over the whole Mekong River basin through the lens of ecohydrology. Each chapter is written by a leading expert, with coverage on climate change, groundwater, land use, flooding drought, biodiversity and anthropological issues. Human activities are enormous in the whole watershed and are still increasing throughout the catchment, with severe negative impacts on natural resources are emerging. Among these activities, hydropower dams, especially a series of 11 dams in China, are the most critical as they generate massive changes throughout the system, including in the delta and to the livelihoods of millions of people and they threaten sustainability.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
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  • 8
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    Synthesis and the way forward (2024)
    In:  The Mekong River Basin : Ecohydrological Complexity from Catchment to Coast | Ecohydrology from Catchment to Coast
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    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: The complexity of the Mekong River Basin (MRB) has been presented in three different sections focusing on various aspects on the MRB ecohydrological system. Section 1 starts with the physical processes of climate, hydrology, sediment, aquatic biodiversity, changes of land cover/land use, and water related hazards like floods and droughts. In section 2, the book focuses on the water resource management and development and collaboration in the upper MRB, with a special focus on hydro-power development. The last section is dedicated to the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) crossing typical environmental problems like water pollution, river morphological changes, land subsidence, salinity intrusion, coastal erosion, as well as livelihood and climate change adaptation, and agriculture transformation.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 9
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    Mechanical stiffness and permeability of a reservoir-scale rough fracture during closure (2024)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: Natural or artificial fluid flow in deep fractured reservoirs, such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), is primarily controlled by open fractures and faults, and is considered a key element for hydraulic performance. Flow along these fractures is strongly affected by channeling between fracture asperities and by deposits sealing the open fracture space due to mineral precipitation. Fracture asperities and fracture sealing also impact the mechanical behavior of fractures, especially their mechanical stiffness. Here, we study both the permeability and the stiffness of a rough fracture at the field scale during its closure.We base our approach on a well established self-affine geometrical model for fracture roughness. We develop a finite element model based on the MOOSE/GOLEM framework and conduct numerical flow experiments in a 256 × 256 × 256 m^3 granite reservoir hosting a single, partially sealed fracture under variable normal loading conditions. Navier-Stokes flow is solved in the embedded 3-dimensional rough aperture, and Darcy flow is solved in the surrounding poroelastic matrix. We study the evolution of the mechanical stiffness and fluid permeability of the fracture-rock system during fracture closure by considering the asperity yield and the depositing of fracture-filling material in the open space of the rough fracture. The evolution of the fault volume, fracture normal stiffness and permeability are monitored until fluid percolation thresholds are exceeded in two orthogonal directions of the imposed pressure gradient. Finally, we propose a physically based law for the stiffness and permeability evolution as a function of the fault volume. It is demonstrated that during closure, stiffness increases exponentially as the fault volume decreases. A strong anisotropy of the fracture permeability is also evidenced when reaching percolation thresholds.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 10
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    Preface (2024)
    In:  The Mekong River Basin : Ecohydrological Complexity from Catchment to Coast | Ecohydrology from Catchment to Coast
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-17
    Beschreibung: The Mekong River drains a catchment of over 800,000 km2 and is the world's 12th longest river (4800 km), the 8th largest water discharge (470 × 106 m3/year), and the 10th largest sediment load (160 × 106 tons/year). The Mekong starts on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau with a maximal elevation of 5220 m, flows through six countries (China with 16% of its basin, Myanmar with 5% of its basin, Laos with 35% of its basin, Thailand with 18% of its basin, Cambodia with 18% of its basin, and Vietnam with 11% its basin), and empties into the Vietnam East Sea (South China Sea). The Mekong River basin (MRB) has the world's most diverse river ecosystem. It is the world's largest inland fishery. Its biodiversity is fundamental to agricultural production and the food security of 90 million people in the Lower Mekong basin, including about 18 million people in the Vietnamese Mekong delta.
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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