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  • Springer Science + Business Media
  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2015-2019  (11,011)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: This work explores the impact of orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 glacial inception and compares it to that of MIS 5. The authors use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the mean climate state of six time slices at 115, 122, 125, 229, 236, and 239 kyr, representative of a climate evolution from interglacial to glacial inception conditions. The simulations are designed to separate the effects of orbital parameters from those of greenhouse gas (GHG). Their results show that, in all the time slices considered, MIS 7 boreal lands mean annual climate is colder than the MIS 5 one. This difference is explained at 70% by the impact of the MIS 7 GHG. While the impact of GHG over Northern Hemisphere is homogeneous, the difference in temperature between MIS 7 and MIS 5 due to orbital parameters differs regionally and is linked with the Arctic Oscillation. The perennial snow cover is larger in all the MIS 7 experiments compared to MIS 5, as a result of MIS 7 orbital parameters, strengthened by GHG. At regional scale, Eurasia exhibits the strongest response to MIS 7 cold climate with a perennial snow area 3 times larger than in MIS 5 experiments. This suggests that MIS 7 glacial inception is more favorable over this area than over North America. Furthermore, at 239 kyr, the perennial snow covers an area equivalent to that of MIS 5 glacial inception (115 kyr). The authors suggest that MIS 7 glacial inception is more extensive than MIS 5 glacial inception over the high latitudes.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA
    Description: Published
    Description: 8918-8933
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Arctic Oscillation ; Teleconnections ; Greenhouse gases ; Glaciation ; Paleoclimate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC323rd Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence, Renaissance Oklahoma City Convention Center Hotel - Ballroom E, 2018-06-2018-06Renaissance Oklahoma City Convention Center Hotel - Ballroom E, American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018-08-08
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-10-06
    Description: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency towards more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the sub-daily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and sub-daily time scales. Over north-eastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hour scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behaviour, with stronger intensification at the 3-hour scale rather than daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analysed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications on the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale the analyses are usually performed at.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6193–6203
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rainfall ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; snow ; europe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Climate model simulations are currently the main tool to provide information about possible future climates. Apart from scenario uncertainties and model error, internal variability is a major source of uncertainty, complicating predictions of future changes. Here, a suite of statistical tests is proposed to determine the shortest time window necessary to capture the internal precipitation variability in a stationary climate. The length of this shortest window thus expresses internal variability in terms of years. The method is applied globally to daily precipitation in a 200-yr preindustrial climate simulation with the CMCC-CM coupled general circulation model. The two-sample Cramér–von Mises test is used to assess differences in precipitation distribution, the Walker test accounts for multiple testing at grid cell level, and field significance is determined by calculating the Bejamini–Hochberg false-discovery rate. Results for the investigated simulation show that internal variability of daily precipitation is regionally and seasonally dependent and that regions requiring long time windows do not necessarily coincide with areas with large standard deviation. The estimated time scales are longer over sea than over land, in the tropics than in midlatitudes, and in the transitional seasons than in winter and summer. For many land grid cells, 30 seasons suffice to capture the internal variability of daily precipitation. There exist regions, however, where even 50 years do not suffice to sample the internal variability. The results show that diagnosing daily precipitation change at different times based on fixed global snapshots of one climate simulation might not be a robust detection method.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3624–3630
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: precipitation ; internal variability ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The financial support of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA and that of INDO-MARECLIM (Project 295092) is gratefully acknowledged. A. Cherchi thankfully acknowledges the generous hospitality of the International Pacific Research Center at UH Manoa, Honolulu. Jan Hafner is thanked for providing the moist static energy budget code used here and Matthew Windlansky is thanked for comments and proof reading. H. Annamalai acknowledges the partial support by the Office of Science (BER) U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-07ER6445, and also by the three institutional grants (JAMSTEC, NASA, NOAA) of the IPRC. Dr. Chen and an anonymous reviewer are acknowledged for the instructive and helpful comments given.
    Description: Dry summers over the eastern Mediterranean are characterized by strong descent anchored by long Rossby waves, which are forced by diabatic heating associated with summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The large-scale teleconnection between rising and subsiding air masses is referred to as the "monsoon-desert mechanism.'' This study evaluates the ability of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models in representing the physical processes involved in this mechanism. An evaluation of statistics between summer climatologies of monsoon diabatic heating and that of vertical velocity over the eastern Mediterranean suggests a linear relationship. Despite large spatial diversity in monsoon heating, descent over the Mediterranean is coherently located and realistic in intensity. To measure the sensitivity of descent to the diversity in the horizontal and vertical distribution of monsoon heating, a series of linear atmosphere model experiments are performed. It is shown that column-integrated heating over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea provides the largest descent with a more realistic spatial pattern. In the vertical, CMIP5 models underestimate the diabatic heating at upper levels, while they overestimate it at lower levels, resulting in a weaker forced response and weaker associated descent over the Mediterranean. A moist static energy budget analysis applied to CMIP5 suggests that most models capture the dominant role of horizontal temperature advection and radiative fluxes in balancing descent over the Mediterranean. Based on the objective analysis herein, a subset of models is identified that captures the teleconnection for reasons consistent with observations. The recognized processes vary at interannual time scales as well, with imprints of severe weak/strong monsoons noticeable over the Mediterranean.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA INDO-MARECLIM 295092 Office of Science (BER) U.S. Department of Energy DE-FG02-07ER6445 (JAMSTEC) of the IPRC (NASA) of the IPRC (NOAA) of the IPRC
    Description: Published
    Description: 6877-6903
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Rossby waves ; Teleconnections ; Diabatic heating ; Coupled models ; Model evaluation/performance ; Interannual variability ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Optimally modeling background-error horizontal correlations is crucial in ocean data assimilation. This paper investigates the impact of releasing the assumption of uniform background-error correlations in a global ocean variational analysis system. Spatially varying horizontal correlations are introduced in the recursive filter operator, which is used for modeling horizontal covariances in the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) analysis system. The horizontal correlation length scales (HCLSs) were defined on the full three-dimensional model space and computed from both a dataset of monthly anomalies with respect to the monthly climatology and through the so-called National Meteorological Center (NMC) method. Different formulas for estimating the correlation length scale are also discussed and applied to the two forecast error datasets. The new formulation is tested within a 12-yr period (2000–11) in the ½° resolution system. The comparison with the data assimilation system using uniform background-error horizontal correlations indicates the superiority of the former, especially in eddy-dominated areas. Verification skill scores report a significant reduction of RMSE, and the use of nonuniform length scales improves the representation of the eddy kinetic energy at midlatitudes, suggesting that uniform, latitude, or Rossby radius-dependent formulations are insufficient to represent the geographical variations of the background-error correlations. Furthermore, a small tuning of the globally uniform value of the length scale was found to have a small impact on the analysis system. The use of either anomalies or NMC-derived correlation length scales also has a marginal effect with respect to the use of nonuniform HCLSs. On the other hand, the application of overestimated length scales has proved to be detrimental to the analysis system in all areas and for all parameters.
    Description: This work has received funding from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project and from the European Commission's Copernicus program, previously known as the GMES program, under the MyOcean and MyOcean2 projects.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2330-2349
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME ; TROPICAL PACIFIC-OCEAN ; PART I ; VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION ; COVARIANCE FUNCTIONS ; DIFFUSION EQUATION ; SYSTEM ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPLEMENTATION ; MODEL ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-03-27
    Description: The first in situ measurements of seawater density that referred to a geographical position at sea and time of the year were carried out by Count Luigi Ferdinando Marsili between 1679 and 1680 in the Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea, and the Bosporus. Not only was this the first investigation with documented oceanographic measurements carried out at stations, but themeasurements were described in such an accurateway that the authorswere able to reconstruct the observations in modern units. These first measurements concern the ‘‘specific gravity’’ of seawaters (i.e., the ratio between fluid densities). The data reported in the historical oceanographic treatise Osservazioni intorno al Bosforo Tracio (Marsili) allowed the reconstruction of the seawater density at different geographic locations between 1679 and 1680. Marsili’s experimental methodology included the collection of surface and deep water samples, the analysis of the samples with a hydrostatic ampoule, and the use of a reference water to standardize the measurements.Acomparison of reconstructed densities with present-day values shows an agreement within 10%–20% uncertainty, owing to various aspects of the measurement methodology that are difficult to reconstruct from the documentary evidence. Marsili also measured the current speed and the depth of the current inversion in the Bosporus, which are consistent with the present-day knowledge. The experimental data collected in the Bosporus enabledMarsili to enunciate a theory on the cause of the two-layer flow at the strait, demonstrated by his laboratory experiment and later confirmed by many analytical and numerical studies.
    Description: American Meteorological Society.
    Description: Published
    Description: 845 - 860
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Ocean ; Density currents ; Measurements ; Ship observations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, American Meteorological Society, 32, pp. 591-602
    Publication Date: 2015-06-19
    Description: Iron in the vicinity of compasses results in magnetic deviations. ADCPs mounted on steel buoyancy devices and deployed on seven moorings on the East Greenland outer shelf and upper slope from 2007 to 2008 suffered from severe magnetic deviations of $〉$90$^\circ$ rendering the ADCP data useless without a compass correction. The effects on the measured velocities, which may also be present in other oceanic velocity measurements, are explained. On each of the moorings, velocity measurements from a different instrument which was assumed not to be affected by magnetic deviation are overlapping in space and time with the compromised ones. A method is described to determine the magnetic compass deviation from the compromised and uncompromised velocity measurements and the compromised compass headings. The method depends on the assumption that at least one instrument per mooring is not compromised. With this method, the magnetic deviation as well as the originally compromised velocity records can be corrected. The method is described in detail and a MATLAB(R) script implementing the method is supplied. The success of the method is demonstrated for one of the moorings.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 10
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 30, pp. 4337-4350, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2017-12-15
    Description: Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in the Weddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders ofmagnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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