ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉The Arctic sea-ice decline is among the most emblematic manifestations of climate change and is occurring before we understand its ecological consequences. We investigated future changes in algal productivity combining a biogeochemical model for sympagic algae with sea-ice drivers from an ensemble of 18 CMIP5 climate models. Model projections indicate quasi-linear physical changes along latitudes but markedly nonlinear response of sympagic algae, with distinct latitudinal patterns. While snow cover thinning explains the advancement of algal blooms below 66°N, narrowing of the biological time windows yields small changes in the 66°N to 74°N band, and shifting of the ice seasons toward more favorable photoperiods drives the increase in algal production above 74°N. These diverse latitudinal responses indicate that the impact of declining sea ice on Arctic sympagic production is both large and complex, with consequent trophic and phenological cascades expected in the rest of the food web.〈/p〉

Description: Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth System Models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration parthways (RCP) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in 2090s (compared to 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 °C, −0.33 pH unit, −3.45% and −8.6%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 °C, −0.07 pH unit, −1.81% and −2.0% respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of sub-surface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity.

Description: A 1-D model system, consisting of the 1-D version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) coupled with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) has been applied to a sub-basin of the Baltic Proper, the Bornholm basin. The model has been forced with 3h meteorological data for the period 1979-1990, producing a 12-year hindcast validated with datasets from the Baltic Environmental Database for the same period. The model results demonstrate the model to hindcast the time-evolution of the physical structure very well, confirming the view of the open Baltic water column as a three layer system of surface, intermediate and bottom waters. Comparative analyses of modelled hydrochemical components with respect to the independent data have shown that the long-term system behaviour of the model is within the observed ranges. Also primary production processes, deduced from oxygen (over)saturation are hindcast correctly over the entire period and the annual net primary production is within the observed range. The largest mismatch with observations is found in simulating the biogeochemistry of the Baltic intermediate waters. Modifications in the structure of the model (addition of fast-sinking detritus and polysaccharide dynamics) have shown that the nutrient dynamics are linked to the quality and dimensions of the organic matter produced in the euphotic zone, highlighting the importance of the residence time of the organic matter within the microbial foodweb in the intermediate waters. Experiments with different scenarios of riverine nutrient loads, assessed in the limits of a 1-D setup, have shown that the external input of organic matter makes the open Baltic model more heterotrophic. The characteristics of the inputs also drive the dynamics of nitrogen in the bottom layers leading either to nitrate accumulation (when the external sources are inorganic), or to coupled nitrification-denitrification (under strong organic inputs). The model indicates the permanent stratification to be the main feature of the system as regulator of carbon and nutrient budgets. The model predicts that most of the carbon produced in the euphotic zone is also consumed in the water column and this enhances the importance of heterotrophic benthic processes as final closure of carbon and nutrient cycles in the open Baltic.

Description: Several biogeochemical data have been collected in the last 10 years of Italian activity in Antarctica (ABIOCLEAR, ROSSMIZE, BIOSESO-I/II). A comprehensive 1-D biogeochemical model was implemented as a tool to link observations with processes and to investigate the mechanisms that regulate the flux of biogenic material through the water column. The model is ideally located at station B (175° E–74° S) and was set up to reproduce the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton and organic matter fluxes as forced by the dominant water column physics over the period 1990–2001. Austral spring-summer bloom conditions are assessed by comparing simulated nutrient drawdown, primary production rates, bacterial respiration and biomass with the available observations. The simulated biogenic fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and silica have been compared with the fluxes derived from sediment traps data. The model reproduces the observed magnitude of the biogenic fluxes, especially those found in the bottom sediment trap, but the peaks are markedly delayed in time. Sensitivity experiments have shown that the characterization of detritus, the choice of the sinking velocity and the degradation rates are crucial for the timing and magnitude of the vertical fluxes. An increase of velocity leads to a shift towards observation but also to an overestimation of the deposition flux which can be counteracted by higher bacterial remineralization rates. Model results suggest that the timing of the observed fluxes depends first and foremost on the timing of surface production and on a combination of size-distribution and quality of the autochtonous biogenic material. It is hypothesized that the bottom sediment trap collects material originated from the rapid sinking of freshly-produced particles and also from the previous year's production period.

Description: Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last decades of 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratios change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies, by abating aerosols, may lead to unexpected stronger intensification of hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after that global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is here suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

Description: Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.