ALBERT

Description: The Eurofloat experiment was a joint initiative to examine the large-scale spreading of Mediterranean Water (MW) and Labrador Sea Water in the northeast North Atlantic. RAFOS float data from the southern (MW) portion of the Eurofloat experiment have been examined in conjunction with historical float data in order to calculate quasi-Eulerian means in an effort to separate and quantify the constituents of the spreading of the MW tongue east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. While recent studies focussed chiefly on the role of meddies in the shaping of the MW tongue, this analysis also examines the tongue's second constituent, that is, the “background” (non-meddy advective and diffusive) flow. The results suggest the existence of two regimes approximately to the north and south of the 36°N parallel (i.e., the latitude of the Gulf of Cadiz), which are distinguished by different types of dominant spreading mechanisms for MW. To the south of the Gulf of Cadiz, the background flow shows an incoherent and weak mean, whereas the mean velocity of the salt enhanced meddies is strong and to the southwest. In contrast, to the north of 36°N the mean velocity of the meddies seems to be less pronounced and the background flow is shown to be a major component in the northwestward spreading of the MW tongue. The two regimes are separated by the Azores Current, which previously has been hypothesized to act as a dynamic barrier to the southward advective spreading of the background regime, which the meddies are able to penetrate because of their high kinetic energy. Overall, the meddies are calculated to contribute to approximately half of the total salinity anomaly flux.

Description: The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming. A robust sea ice–air temperature relationship was demonstrated by a set of four simulations with the atmospheric ECHAM model forced with observed SST and sea ice concentrations. An analysis of the spatial characteristics of the observed early twentieth-century surface air temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar sea ice variations. Further investigation of the variability of Arctic surface temperature and sea ice cover was performed by analyzing data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. By analyzing climate anomalies in the model that are similar to those that occurred in the early twentieth century, it was found that the simulated temperature increase in the Arctic was related to enhanced wind-driven oceanic inflow into the Barents Sea with an associated sea ice retreat. The magnitude of the inflow is linked to the strength of westerlies into the Barents Sea. This study proposes a mechanism sustaining the enhanced westerly winds by a cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the Barents Sea region created by a strong surface heat flux over the ice-free areas. Observational data suggest a similar series of events during the early twentieth-century Arctic warming, including increasing westerly winds between Spitsbergen and Norway, reduced sea ice, and enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Barents Sea. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation was weakening.

Description: A model of the Atlantic Ocean was forced with decadal-scale time series of surface fluxes taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis. The bulk of the variability of the oceanic circulation is found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Both realistic experiments and idealized sensitivity studies with the model show a fast (intraseasonal timescale) barotropic response and a delayed (timescale about 6–8 yr) baroclinic oceanic response to the NAO. The fast response to a high NAO constitutes a barotropic anticyclonic circulation anomaly near the subpolar front with a substantial decrease of the northward heat transport and an increase of northward heat transport in the subtropics due to changes in Ekman transport. The delayed response is an increase in subpolar heat transport due to enhanced meridional overturning and due to a spinup of the subpolar gyre. The corresponding subpolar and subtropical heat content changes could in principle act as an immediate positive feedback and a delayed negative feedback to the NAO.

Description: The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) is one of the five continental–scale experiments of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). More than 50 research groups from 14 European countries are participating in this project to measure and model the energy and water cycle over the large drainage basin of the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. BALTEX aims to provide a better understanding of the processes of the climate system and to improve and to validate the water cycle in regional numerical models for weather forecasting and climate studies. A major effort is undertaken to couple interactively the atmosphere with the vegetated continental surfaces and the Baltic Sea including its sea ice. The intensive observational and modeling phase BRIDGE, which is a contribution to the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period of GEWEX, will provide enhanced datasets for the period October 1999–February 2002 to validate numerical models and satellite products. Major achievements have been obtained in an improved understanding of related exchange processes. For the first time an interactive atmosphere–ocean–land surface model for the Baltic Sea was tested. This paper reports on major activities and some results.

Description: A unique open-ocean upwelling exists in the tropical South Indian Ocean (SIO), a result of the negative wind curl between the southeasterly trades and equatorial westerlies, raising the thermocline in the west. Analysis of in situ measurements and a model-assimilated dataset reveals a strong influence of subsurface thermocline variability on sea surface temperature (SST) in this upwelling zone. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be the dominant forcing for the SIO thermocline variability, with SST variability off Sumatra, Indonesia, also making a significant contribution. When either an El Niño or Sumatra cooling event takes place, anomalous easterlies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the SIO. In phase with this dynamic Rossby wave, there is a pronounced copropagation of SST. Moreover, a positive precipitation anomaly is found over, or just to the south of, the Rossby wave–induced positive SST anomaly, resulting in a cyclonic circulation in the surface wind field that appears to feedback onto the SST anomaly. Finally, this downwelling Rossby wave also increases tropical cyclone activity in the SIO through its SST effect. This coupled Rossby wave thus offers potential predictability for SST and tropical cyclones in the western SIO. These results suggest that models that allow for the existence of upwelling and Rossby wave dynamics will have better seasonal forecasts than ones that use a slab ocean mixed layer. The lagged-correlation analysis shows that SST anomalies off Java, Indonesia, tend to precede those off Sumatra by a season, a time lead that may further increase the Indian Ocean predictability.

Description: Recently, Hilmer and Jung have shown that the wintertime link between the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the sea ice export through Fram Strait changed from zero correlation (1958–77) to about 0.7 (1978–97) during the last four decades. In the current study, the authors focus on the question of how the two phenomena are linked in a long-term context during wintertime (December–March). This is done on a statistical basis using data from a century-scale control integration of the coupled general circulation model ECHAM4–OPYC3 along with historical sea level pressure data for the period 1908–97. From the results of this study there is less indication that a significant link on interannual and decadal timescales between the NAO and the sea ice export through Fram Strait is a characteristic property of the climate system—at least under present-day climate conditions. This missing link can be explained by a vanishing net impact of the NAO on sea ice thickness as well as sea ice drift near Fram Strait and thus the sea ice volume export through Fram Strait. It is argued that the spatial pattern of interannual NAO variability as observed during the last two decades of the twentieth century is unusual and so is the high correlation between the NAO and Arctic sea ice export for the period 1978–97.

Description: The current system east of the Grand Banks was intensely observed by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) array ACM-6 during 1993–95 with eight moorings, reaching about 500 km out from the shelf edge and covering the water column from about 400-m depth to the bottom. More recently, a reduced array by the Institut für Meerskunde (IfM) at Kiel, Germany, of four moorings was deployed during 1999–2001, focusing on the deep-water flow near the western continental slope. Both sets of moored time series, each about 22 months long, are combined here for a mean current boundary section, and both arrays are analyzed for the variability of currents and transports. A mean hydrographic section is derived from seven ship surveys and is used for geostrophic upper-layer extrapolation and isopycnal subdivision of the mean transports into deep-water classes. The offshore part of the combined section is dominated by the deep-reaching North Atlantic Current (NAC) with currents still at 10 cm s−1 near the bottom and a total northward transport of about 140 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), with the details depending on the method of surface extrapolation used. The mean flow along the western boundary was southward with the section-mean North Atlantic Deep Water outflow determined to be 12 Sv below the σθ = 27.74 kg m−3 isopycnal. However, east of the deep western boundary current (DWBC), the deep NAC carries a transport of 51 Sv northward below σθ = 27.74 kg m−3, resulting in a large net northward flow in the western part of the basin. From watermass signatures it is concluded that the deep NAC is not a direct recirculation of DWBC water masses. Transport time series for the DWBC variability are derived for both arrays. The variance is concentrated in the period range from 2 weeks to 2 months, but there are also variations at interannual and longer periods, with much of the DWBC variability being related to fluctuations and meandering of the NAC. A significant annual cycle is not recognizable in the combined current and transport time series of both arrays. The moored array results are compared with other evidence on deep outflow and recirculation, including recent models of different types and complexity.

Description: North Atlantic synoptic-scale processes are analyzed by bandpassing 6-hourly NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data (1958–98) for several synoptic ranges corresponding to ultrahigh-frequency variability (0.5–2 days), synoptic-scale variability (2–6 days), slow synoptic processes (6–12 days), and low-frequency variability (12–30 days). Climatological patterns of the intensity of synoptic processes are not collocated for different ranges of variability, especially in the lower troposphere. Intensities of synoptic processes demonstrate opposite trends between the North American coast and in the northeast Atlantic. Although north of 40°N the intensity of ultrahigh-frequency variability and synoptic-scale processes show similar interannual variability, further analysis indicates that secular changes, and decadal-scale and interannual variability in the intensities of synoptic processes may not be necessarily consistent for different synoptic timescales. Magnitudes of winter ultrahigh-frequency variability are highly correlated with the intensity of synoptic-scale processes in the 1960s and early 1970s. However, they show little agreement with each other during the last two decades, pointing to the remarkable change in atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic in late 1970s. North Atlantic ultrahigh-frequency variability in winter is highly correlated with surface temperature gradient anomalies in the Atlantic–American sector. These gradients are computed from the merged fields of SST and surface temperature over the continent. They demonstrate a dipolelike pattern associated with the North American coast on one hand, with the subpolar SST front and continental Canada on the other. High-frequency variability and its synoptic counterpart demonstrate different relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Reliability of these results and their sensitivity to the filtering procedures are addressed by comparison to radiosonde data and application of alternative filters.

Description: Simulations and seasonal forecasts of tropical Pacific SST and subsurface fields that are based on the global Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean-state estimation procedure are investigated. As compared to similar results from a traditional ENSO simulation and forecast procedure, the hindcast of the constrained ocean state is significantly closer to observed surface and subsurface conditions. The skill of the 12-month lead SST forecast in the equatorial Pacific is comparable in both approaches. The optimization appears to have better skill in the SST anomaly correlations, suggesting that the initial ocean conditions and forcing corrections calculated by the ocean-state estimation do have a positive impact on the predictive skill. However, the optimized forecast skill is currently limited by the low quality of the statistical atmosphere. Progress is expected from optimizing a coupled model over a longer time interval with the coupling statistics being part of the control vector.