ALBERT

Description: Extraction of oil and natural gas (hydrocarbons) from shale is increasing rapidly in North America, with documented impacts to native species and ecosystems. With shale oil and gas resources on nearly every continent, this development is set to become a major driver of global land-use change. It is increasingly critical to quantify spatial habitat loss driven by this development to implement effective mitigation strategies and develop habitat offsets. Habitat selection is a fundamental ecological process, influencing both individual fitness and population-level distribution on the landscape. Examinations of habitat selection provide a natural means for understanding spatial impacts. We examined the impact of natural gas development on habitat selection patterns of mule deer on their winter range in Colorado. We fit resource selection functions in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, with habitat availability defined using a movement-based modeling approach. Energy development drove considerable alterations to deer habitat selection patterns, with the most substantial impacts manifested as avoidance of well pads with active drilling to a distance of at least 800 m. Deer displayed more nuanced responses to other infrastructure, avoiding pads with active production and roads to a greater degree during the day than night. In aggregate, these responses equate to alteration of behavior by human development in over 50% of the critical winter range in our study area during the day and over 25% at night. Compared to other regions, the topographic and vegetative diversity in the study area appear to provide refugia that allow deer to behaviorally mediate some of the impacts of development. This study, and the methods we employed, provides a template for quantifying spatial take by industrial activities in natural areas and the results offer guidance for policy makers, mangers, and industry when attempting to mitigate habitat loss due to energy development.

Description: Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler ( Setophaga caerulescens ), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot-based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39,000 km 2 . Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13-15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down -1.5 m·yr −1 in the Green Mountains, VT, and -1.3 m·yr −1 in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with re-measured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human landuse and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate-mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In order to adequately monitor biodiversity trends through time and their responses to natural or anthropogenic impacts, researchers require long time series that are often unavailable. This general lack of datasets that are several decades or longer makes establishing a background or baseline of diversity metrics difficult – especially when attempting to understand species composition changes against a backdrop of climate and ecological variability. Here we present an analysis of a community of juvenile nearshore fishes based on nearly 8 decades of highly standardized Norwegian survey records. Using multivariate statistical techniques, we: a) characterize the change in taxonomic community composition through time, b) determine whether there has been an increase in warm water affinity species relative to their cold water affinity counterparts, and c) characterize the temporal change in the species’ functional trait assemblage. Our results strongly indicate a shift towards a novel fish assemblage between the late 1990s and 2000s. The context of changes within the most recent two decades are in stark contrast to those during the 60s and 70s, but similar to those during the previous warm period during the 30s and 40s. This novel assemblage is tightly linked to the warming temperatures in the region portrayed by the increased presence of warm water species and a higher incidence of pelagic, planktivorous species. The results indicate a clear influence of ocean temperature on the region's juvenile fish community that points to climate mediated effects on the species assemblages of an important fish nursery area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO 2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m −2 ). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over 300 times more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m −2 ) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southerly latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO 2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO 2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against short-term changes in NEE. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that: (H1.) Soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2.) Exotic grasslands have drier soils, elevated NO 3 - , and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3.) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO 3 - versus secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO 3 - would be related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary-forest sites along a tropical urban-to-rural gradient during three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that: (1.) Soil NO 3 - was generally elevated near the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2.) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO 3 - was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was higher in forests than grasslands. (3.) Grasslands had greater soil NO 3 - seasonality versus forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO 3 - accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially due to an interplay of aboveground N interception and soil processes. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on rates of N deposition, the mosaic of land covers, and responses by local decomposer communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The response of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools to globally rising surface temperature crucially determines the feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC which is the main component of total soil carbon stock and the most relevant to global change. We tackled this issue by using two decadally 13 C-labeled soils and a much improved measuring system in a long-term incubation experiment. Results indicated that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally-cycling SOC (〉 23 years in one soil and 〉 55 years in the other soil) was significantly greater than that for faster-cycling SOC (〈 23 or 55 years) or for the entire SOC stock. Moreover, decadally-cycling SOC contributed substantially (35-59%) to the total CO 2 loss during the 360-day incubation. Overall, these results indicate that the decomposition of decadally-cycling SOC is highly sensitive to temperature change, which will likely make this large SOC stock vulnerable to loss by global warming in the 21 st century and beyond. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has not been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts, and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~ 4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270km in the model simulation. Thus ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to the climate-induced expansion of species ranges. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid-rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to ten tropical El Niño events. Measureable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven out of ten of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to two months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific events, but delayed (lag of two to eight months) following “Modoki” Central Pacific events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (1) human activities as drivers of change; (2) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (3) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (4) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes, and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil is the largest stock of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere, so even slight changes in soil C stock may induce significant fluctuations in the atmospheric C dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Early coupled C-climate models predicted that positive C-climate feedback would be triggered due to the acceleration of C release to the atmosphere under future climate warming (Cox et al ., 2000). However, due to the omission of key microbial components and biogeochemical mechanisms in these models (Wieder et al ., 2013), these predictions remain controversial, because soil C dynamics is still highly uncertain among results simulated by 11 Earth system models (ESMs) involved in CMIP5 (Ciais et al ., 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The influence of human activity on the biosphere is increasing. While direct damage (e.g. habitat destruction) is relatively well understood, many activities affect wildlife in less apparent ways. Here we investigate how anthropogenic noise impairs foraging, which has direct consequences for animal survival and reproductive success. Noise can disturb foraging via several mechanisms that may operate simultaneously, and thus their effects could not be disentangled hitherto. We developed a diagnostic framework that can be applied to identify the potential mechanisms of disturbance in any species capable of detecting the noise. We tested this framework using Daubenton's bats, which find prey by echolocation. We found that traffic noise reduced foraging efficiency in most bats. Unexpectedly, this effect was present even if the playback noise did not overlap in frequency with the prey echoes. Neither overlapping nor non-overlapping noise influenced the search effort required for a successful prey capture. Hence, noise did not mask prey echoes or reduce the attention of bats. Instead, noise acted as an aversive stimulus that caused avoidance response, thereby reducing foraging efficiency. We conclude that conservation policies may seriously underestimate numbers of species affected and the multilevel effects on animal fitness, if the mechanisms of disturbance are not considered. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the responses of lake systems to past climate change and human activity is critical for assessing and predicting the fate of lake carbon (C) in the future. In this study we synthesized records of the sediment accumulation from 82 lakes and of C sequestration from 58 lakes with direct organic C measurements throughout China. We also identified the controlling factors of the long-term sediment and C accumulation dynamics in these lakes during the past 12 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). Our results indicated an overall increasing trend of sediment and C accumulation since 12 ka, with an accumulation peak in the last couple of millennia for all lakes in China, corresponding to terrestrial organic matter input due to land use change. The Holocene lake sediment accumulation rate (SAR) and C accumulation rate (CAR) averaged (Mean ± SE) 0.47 ± 0.05 mm yr -1 and 7.7 ± 1.4 g C m -2 yr -1 in China, respectively, comparable to the previous estimates for boreal and temperate regions. The SAR for lakes in the East Plain of subtropical China (1.05 ± 0.28 mm yr -1 ) was higher than those in other regions ( P 〈 0.05). However, CAR did not vary significantly among regions. Overall, the variability and history of climate and anthropogenic interference regulated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment and C sequestration for lakes in China. We estimated the total amount of C burial in lakes of China as 8.0 ± 1.0 Pg C. This first estimation of total C storage and dynamics in lakes of China confirms the importance of lakes in land C budget in monsoon-influenced regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model APSIM at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five Global Circulation Models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was non-linear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st Century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Fresh waters make a disproportionately large contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with shallow lakes being particular hotspots. Given their global prevalence, how GHG fluxes from shallow lakes are altered by climate change may have profound implications for the global carbon cycle. Empirical evidence for the temperature dependence of the processes controlling GHG production in natural systems is largely based on the correlation between seasonal temperature variation and seasonal change in GHG fluxes. However, ecosystem-level GHG fluxes could be influenced by factors, which whilst varying seasonally with temperature are actually either indirectly related (e.g. primary producer biomass) or largely unrelated to temperature, for instance nutrient loading. Here, we present results from the longest running shallow-lake mesocosm experiment which demonstrate that nutrient concentrations override temperature as a control of both the total and individual GHG flux. Furthermore, testing for temperature treatment effects at low and high nutrient levels separately showed only one, rather weak, positive effect of temperature (CH 4 flux at high nutrients). In contrast, at low nutrients, the CO 2 efflux was lower in the elevated temperature treatments, with no significant effect on CH 4 or N 2 O fluxes. Further analysis identified possible indirect effects of temperature treatment. For example, at low nutrient levels increased macrophyte abundance was associated with significantly reduced fluxes of both CH 4 and CO 2 for both total annual flux and monthly observation data. As macrophyte abundance was positively related to temperature treatment, this suggests the possibility of indirect temperature effects, via macrophyte abundance, on CH 4 and CO 2 flux. These findings indicate that fluxes of GHGs from shallow lakes may be controlled more by factors indirectly related to temperature, in this case nutrient concentration and the abundance of primary producers. Thus, at ecosystem scale response to climate change may not follow predictions based on the temperature dependence of metabolic processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The tropical coffee crop has been predicted to be threatened by future climate changes and global warming. However, the real biological effects of such changes remain unknown. Therefore, this work aims to link the physiological and biochemical responses of photosynthesis to elevated air [CO 2 ] and temperature in cultivated genotypes of Coffea arabica L. (cv. Icatu and IPR108) and C. canephora cv. Conilon CL153. Plants were grown for 1 year at 25/20ºC (day/night) and 380 or 700 μL CO 2 L -1 , then subjected to temperature increase (0.5ºC/day) to 42/34ºC. Leaf impacts related to stomatal traits, gas exchanges, C-isotope composition, fluorescence parameters, thylakoid electron transport and enzyme activities were assessed at 25/20ºC, 31/25ºC, 37/30ºC and 42/34ºC. The results showed that 1) both species were remarkably heat tolerant up to 37/30ºC, but at 42/34ºC a threshold for irreversible non-stomatal deleterious effects was reached. Impairments were greater in C. arabica (especially in Icatu) and under normal [CO 2 ]. Photosystems and thylakoid electron transport were shown to be quite heat tolerant, contrasting to the enzymes related to energy metabolism, including RuBisCO, which were the most sensitive components. 2) Significant stomatal trait modifications were promoted almost exclusively by temperature and were species dependent. Elevated [CO 2 ] 3) strongly mitigated the impact of temperature on both species, particularly at 42/34ºC, modifying the response to supra-optimal temperatures, 4) promoted higher water use efficiency under moderately higher temperature (31/25 ºC), and 5) did not provoke photosynthetic down-regulation. Instead, enhancements in [CO 2 ] strengthened photosynthetic photochemical efficiency, energy use and biochemical functioning at all temperatures.. Our novel findings demonstrate a relevant heat resilience of coffee species and that elevated [CO 2 ] remarkably mitigated the impact of heat on coffee physiology, therefore playing a key role in this crop sustainability under future climate change scenarios. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic, and structural variables, using a 110 year dataset of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and sub tropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic, and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 / RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of Protected Areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hotspots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate change models suggested (in comparison to the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggests that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool in order to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia ) population in the southwestern USA from 1998-2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern USA has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species’ decline, and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cities are growing rapidly, thereby expected to cause a large-scale global biotic homogenization. Evidence for the homogenization hypothesis is mostly derived from plants and birds, whereas arthropods have so far been neglected. Here, I tested the homogenization hypothesis with three insect indicator groups, namely true bugs, leafhoppers, and beetles. In particular, I was interested whether insect species community composition differs between urban and rural areas, whether they are more similar between cities than between rural areas, and whether the found pattern is explained by true species turnover, species diversity gradients and geographic distance, by non-native or specialist species, respectively. I analysed insect species communities sampled on birch trees in a total of six Swiss cities and six rural areas nearby. In all indicator groups urban and rural community composition was significantly dissimilar due to native species turnover. Further, for bug and leafhopper communities I found evidence for large-scale homogenization due to urbanization, which was driven by reduced species turnover of specialist species in cities. Species turnover of beetle communities was similar between cities and rural areas. Interestingly, when specialist species of beetles were excluded from the analyses, cities were more dissimilar than rural areas, suggesting biotic differentiation of beetle communities in cities. Non-native species did not affect species turnover of the insect groups. However, given non-native arthropod species are increasing rapidly their homogenizing effect might be detected more often in future. Overall, the results show that urbanization has a negative large-scale impact on the diversity specialist species of the investigated insect groups. Specific measures in cities targeted at increasing the persistence of specialist species typical for the respective biogeographic region could help to stop the loss of biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: communities of similarly-sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Non-random extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Description: Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH 4 ) / nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH 4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH 4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N 2 O emissions increased twice- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction of CH 4 led to a significantly lower (p〈0.05) annual GWP (CH 4 +N 2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and three years after introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed since it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase of water scarcity it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Agricultural systems are being challenged to decrease water use and increase production while climate becomes more variable and the world's population grows. Low water use efficiency is traditionally characterized by high water use relative to low grain production and usually occurs under dry conditions. However, when a cropping system fails to take advantage of available water during wet conditions, this is also an inefficiency and is often detrimental to the environment. Here we provide a systems-level definition of water use efficiency (sWUE) that addresses both production and environmental quality goals through incorporating all major system water losses (evapotranspiration, drainage, and runoff). We extensively calibrated and tested the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) using six years of continuous crop and soil measurements in corn- and soybean-based cropping systems in central Iowa, USA. We then used the model to determine water use, loss, and grain production in each system and calculated sWUE in years that experienced drought, flood, or historically average precipitation. Systems water use efficiency was found to be greatest during years with average precipitation. Simulation analysis using 28 years of historical precipitation data, plus the same dataset with ± 15% variation in daily precipitation, showed that in this region 430 mm of seasonal (planting to harvesting) rainfall resulted in the optimum sWUE for corn, and 317 mm for soybean. Above these precipitation levels, the corn and soybean yields did not increase further, but the water loss from the system via runoff and drainage increased substantially, leading to a high likelihood of soil, nutrient, and pesticide movement from the field to waterways. As the Midwestern US is predicted to experience more frequent drought and flood, inefficiency of cropping systems water use will also increase. This work provides a framework to concurrently evaluate production and environmental performance of cropping systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; 1) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding, and 2) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human activities are causing rapid environmental change at a global scale. Urbanization is responsible for some of the most extreme human-altered habitats and is a known driver of evolutionary change, but evidence and understanding of these processes is limited. Here, we investigate the potential underlying mechanisms contributing to the contemporary evolution of migration behaviour in the Eurasian blackcap ( Sylvia atricapilla ). Blackcaps from central Europe have been wintering in urban areas of Britain with increasing frequency over the past 60 years, rather than migrating south to the Mediterranean. It has been hypothesized that the popularization of providing supplementary foods for wild birds within Britain may have influenced this marked migratory change, but quantifying the selective forces shaping evolutionary changes remains challenging. Using a long-term national scale data set, we examine both the spatial distribution and interannual variation in blackcap wintering behaviour in Britain in relation to supplementary food availability and local climate. Over a 12-year period, we show that blackcaps are becoming increasingly associated with the provision of supplementary foods in British gardens, and that the reliability of bird food supplies is influencing their winter distribution at a national scale. In addition, local climatic temperatures and broader scale weather variation are also important determinants of blackcap wintering patterns once they arrive in Britain. Based on our findings, we conclude that a synergistic effect of increased availability of feeding resources, in the form of garden bird food, coupled with climatic amelioration, has enabled a successful new wintering population to become established in Britain. As global biodiversity is threatened by human-induced environmental change, this study presents new and timely evidence of the role human activities can play in shaping evolutionary trajectories.

Description: Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of “shredding” detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (〉60m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation in order to guide future actions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Evidence for the theory of biotic resistance is equivocal, with experiments often finding a negative relationship between invasion success and native species richness, and large-scale comparative studies finding a positive relationship. Biotic resistance derives from local species interactions, yet global and regional studies often analyze data at coarse spatial grains. In addition, differences in competitive environments across regions may confound tests of biotic resistance based solely on native species richness of the invaded community. Using global and regional datasets for fishes in river and stream reaches, we ask two questions: 1) does a negative relationship exist between native and non-native species richness and 2) do non-native species originate from higher diversity systems. A negative relationship between native and non-native species richness in local assemblages was found at the global scale, while regional patterns revealed the opposite trend. At both spatial scales, however, nearly all non-native species originated from river basins with higher native species richness than the basin of the invaded community. Together, these findings imply that coevolved ecological interactions in species-rich systems inhibit establishment of generalist non-native species from less diverse communities. Consideration of both the ecological and evolutionary aspects of community assembly is critical to understanding invasion patterns. Distinct evolutionary histories in different regions strongly influence invasion of intact communities that are relatively un-impacted by human actions, and may explain the conflicting relationship between native and non-native species richness found at different spatial scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The functional biogeography of tropical forests is expressed in foliar chemicals that are key physiologically-based predictors of plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions including climate. However, understanding the degree to which environmental filters sort the canopy chemical characteristics of forest canopies remains a challenge. Here we report on the elevation and soil-type dependence of forest canopy chemistry among 75 compositionally and environmentally distinct forests in nine regions, with a total of 7819 individual trees representing 3246 species collected, identified and assayed for foliar traits. We assessed whether there are consistent relationships between canopy chemical traits and both elevation and soil type, and evaluated the general role of phylogeny in mediating of patterns of canopy traits within and across communities. Chemical trait variation and partitioning suggested a general model based on four inter-connected findings. First, geographic variation at the soil Order level, expressing broad changes in fertility, underpins major shifts in foliar phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca). Second, elevation-dependent shifts in average community leaf dry mass per area (LMA), chlorophyll, and carbon allocation (including non-structural carbohydrates) are most strongly correlated with changes in foliar Ca. Third, chemical diversity within communities is driven by differences between species rather than by plasticity within species. Finally, elevation- and soil-dependent changes in N, LMA and leaf carbon allocation are mediated by canopy compositional turnover, whereas foliar P and Ca are driven more by changes in site conditions than by phylogeny. Our findings have broad implications for understanding the global ecology of humid tropical forests, and their functional responses to changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one-pool model, and showed that elevated CO 2 increases the decomposition rate of soil organic C, negating the storage potential of soil. However, a two-pool soil model can potentially explain patterns of soil C dynamics without invoking effects of CO 2 on decomposition rates. To address this issue, we refit our data to a two-pool soil C model. We found that CO 2 enrichment increases decomposition rates of both fast and slow C pools. In addition, elevated CO 2 decreased the carbon use efficiency of soil microbes (CUE), thereby further reducing soil C storage. These findings are consistent with numerous empirical studies and corroborate the results from our previous analysis. To facilitate understanding of C dynamics, we suggest that empirical and theoretical studies incorporate multiple soil C pools with potentially variable decomposition rates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coherent timing of agricultural expansion, fertilizer application, atmospheric nutrient deposition, and accelerated global warming is expected to promote synchronous fertilization of regional surface waters and coherent development of algal blooms and lake eutrophication. While broad-scale cyanobacterial expansion is evident in global meta-analyses, little is known of whether lakes in discrete catchments within a common lake district also exhibit coherent water quality degradation through anthropogenic forcing. Consequently, the primary goal of this study was to determine whether agricultural development since ca. 1900, accelerated use of fertilizer since 1960, atmospheric deposition of reactive N, or regional climate warming has resulted in coherent patterns of eutrophication of surface waters in southern Alberta, Canada. Unexpectedly, analysis of sedimentary pigments as an index of changes in total algal abundance since ca. 1850 revealed that while total algal abundance (as β-carotene, pheophytin a ) increased in nine of 10 lakes over 150 years, the onset of eutrophication varied by a century and was asynchronous across basins. Similarly, analysis of temporal sequences with least squares regression revealed that the relative abundance of cyanobacteria (echinenone) either decreased or did not change significantly in eight of the lakes since ca. 1850, whereas purple sulphur bacteria (as okenone) increased significantly in seven study sites. These patterns are consistent with the catchment filter hypothesis which posits that lakes exhibit unique responses to common forcing associated with the influx of mass as water, nutrients, or particles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30 year old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short-term (tiller population growth rates) and long-term (17 year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long-lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO 2 ] (C E ) and elevated temperature (T E ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima . Both genotypes were positively responsive to C E (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to T E . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to T E (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under C E or T E , and the interactive effects of C E and T E on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, T E was a more effective climate factor than C E in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In their recent Letter Olalla-Tárraga et al. (2015; hereafter ‘OT&al’) applied phylogenetic path analysis to investigate the determinants of range size in terrestrial mammals. They concurred with Di Marco & Santini (2015; hereafter ‘DM&S’) in identifying the predictive importance of human pressure, but disagreed that this role prevails over biological traits, criticizing some conceptual and methodological aspects of DM&S. OT&al found that climatic niche is the primary predictor of range size, while human pressure and biological traits were of secondary importance. Here we discuss that the two studies are not directly comparable, and we address the criticisms to DM&S. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent letter, Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed data compiled for our recent paper (Lyons et al. 2014). In that paper, we examined the effects of macroalgal blooms and macroalgal mats on seven important measures of community structure and ecosystem functioning, and explored several ecological and methodological factors that might explain some of the variation in the observed effects. Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed two small subsets of the data, focusing on experimental studies examining effects of blooms/mats on invertebrate abundance. Their analyses revealed two interesting patterns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming will jeopardize the persistence and genetic diversity of many species. Assisted colonization, or the movement of species beyond their current range boundary, is a conservation strategy proposed for species with limited dispersal abilities or adaptive potential. However, species that rely on photoperiodic and thermal cues for development may experience conflicting signals if transported across latitudes. Relocating multiple, distinct populations may remedy this quandary by expanding genetic variation and promoting evolutionary responses in the receiving habitat - a strategy known as assisted gene flow. In order to better inform these policies, we planted seeds from latitudinally distinct populations of the annual legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata , in a potential future colonization site north of its current range boundary. Plants were exposed to ambient or elevated temperatures via infrared heating. We monitored several life history traits and estimated patterns of natural selection in order to determine the adaptive value of plastic responses. To assess the feasibility of assisted gene flow between phenologically distinct populations, we counted flowers each day and estimated the degree of temporal isolation between populations. Increased temperatures advanced each successive phenological trait more than the last, resulting in a compressed life cycle for all but the southern-most population. Warming altered patterns of selection on flowering onset and vegetative biomass. Population performance was dependent on latitude of origin, with the northern-most population performing best under ambient conditions and the southern-most performing most poorly, even under elevated temperatures. Among-population differences in flowering phenology limited the potential for genetic exchange among the northern and southern-most populations. All plastic responses to warming were neutral or adaptive, however photoperiodic constraints will likely necessitate evolutionary responses for long-term persistence, especially when involving populations from disparate latitudes. With strategic planning, our results suggest that assisted colonization and assisted gene flow may be feasible options for preservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters ( Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n  = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum . While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum , toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas . The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue.

Description: Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO 2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems, and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequester C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious and therefore PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 114-379 Tg C yr −1 , i.e. ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (〈2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Although the influence of nitrogen (N) addition on grassland plant communities has been widely studied, it is still unclear whether observed patterns and underlying mechanisms are constant across biomes. In this systematic review, we use meta-analysis and meta-regression to investigate the influence of N addition (here referring mostly to fertilisation) upon the biodiversity of temperate mountain grasslands (including montane, subalpine and alpine zones). Forty-two studies met our criteria of inclusion, resulting in 134 measures of effect size. The main general responses of mountain grasslands to N addition were increases in phytomass and reductions in plant species richness, as observed in lowland grasslands. More specifically, the analysis reveals that negative effects on species richness were exacerbated by dose (ha −1 year −1 ) and duration of N application (years) in an additive manner. Thus, sustained application of low to moderate levels of N over time had effects similar to short term application of high N doses. The climatic context also played an important role: the overall effects of N addition on plant species richness and diversity (Shannon index) were less pronounced in mountain grasslands experiencing cool rather than warm summers. Furthermore, the relative negative effect of N addition on species richness was more pronounced in managed communities, and was strongly negatively related to N-induced increases in phytomass, i.e. the greater the phytomass response to N addition, the greater the decline in richness. Altogether, this review not only establishes that plant biodiversity of mountain grasslands is negatively affected by N addition, it also demonstrates that several local management and abiotic factors interact with N addition to drive plant community changes. This synthesis yields essential information for a more sustainable management of mountain grasslands, emphasizing the importance of preserving and restoring grasslands with both low agricultural N application and limited exposure to N atmospheric deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Habitat degradation not only disrupts habitat-forming species, but alters the sensory landscape within which most species must balance behavioural activities against predation risk. Rapidly developing a cautious behavioural phenotype, a condition known as neophobia, is advantageous when entering a novel risky habitat. Many aquatic organisms rely on damage-released conspecific cues (i.e. alarm cues) as an indicator of impending danger and use them to assess general risk and develop neophobia. This study tested whether settlement-stage damselfish associated with degraded coral reef habitats were able to use alarm cues as an indicator of risk and, in turn, develop a neophobic response at the end of their larval phase. Our results indicate that fish in live coral habitats that were exposed to alarm cues developed neophobia, and, in situ , were found to be more cautious, more closely associated with their coral shelters and survived four-times better than non-neophobic control fish. In contrast, fish that settled onto degraded coral habitats did not exhibit neophobia and consequently suffered much greater mortality on the reef, regardless of their history of exposure to alarm cues. Our results show that habitat degradation alters the efficacy of alarm cues with phenotypic and survival consequences for newly settled recruits.

Description: Despite covering only approximately 138,000 km 2 , mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values 3-4 times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, is poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5t C ha −1 . Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5m 2 resolution, produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C (± 9.15 95% C.I.) for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (± 12.21 95% C.I.); an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualising the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5m 2 resolution provide sufficient detail for highlighting and prioritising areas for mangrove conservation and restoration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land cover conversions. Here we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process-understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one tenth of the ice free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (1) management activities for which datasets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (2) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global datasets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N-fertilization); and (3) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in e.g. Earth System or Dynamic Vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Fire plays an important role in structuring vegetation in fire-prone regions worldwide. Progress has been made towards documenting the effects of individual fire events and fire regimes on vegetation structure; less is known of how different fire history attributes (e.g., time-since-fire, fire frequency) interact to affect vegetation. Using the temperate eucalypt ‘foothill’ forests of south-eastern Australia as a case-study system, we examine two hypotheses about such interactions: 1) that post-fire vegetation succession (e.g., time-since-fire effects) is influenced by other fire regime attributes, and 2) that the severity of the most recent fire overrides the effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Empirical data on vegetation structure were collected from 540 sites distributed across central and eastern Victoria, Australia. Linear mixed models were used to examine these hypotheses, and determine the relative influence of fire and environmental attributes on vegetation structure. Fire history measures, particularly time-since-fire, affected several vegetation attributes including ground and canopy strata; others such as low and sub-canopy vegetation were more strongly influenced by environmental characteristics like rainfall. There was little support for the hypothesis that post-fire succession is influenced by fire history attributes other than time-since-fire: only canopy regeneration was influenced by another variable (‘fire type’, representing severity). Our capacity to detect an overriding effect of the severity of the most recent fire was limited by a consistently weak effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Overall, results suggest the primary way that fire affects vegetation structure in foothill forests is via attributes of the most recent fire, both its severity and time since its occurrence: other attributes of fire regimes (e.g., fire interval, frequency) have less influence. The strong effect of environmental drivers such as rainfall and topography on many structural features show that foothill forest vegetation is also influenced by factors outside human control. While fire is amenable to human management, results suggest that at broad scales, structural attributes of these forests are relatively resilient to the effects of current fire regimes. Nonetheless, the potential for more frequent severe fires at short intervals, associated with a changing climate and/or fire management, warrant further consideration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. Here we present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using 9 years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus , and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus ) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks versus climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae ), which have killed trees over 〉 650,000 km 2 , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta ). Here we show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers, rather than treating beetle-affected forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western US, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The prediction of mosquito abundance is of central interest in addressing mosquito population dynamics and in forecasting the associated emerging and re-emerging diseases. However, little work has focused on the systematic evaluation of how well adult mosquito abundance can be predicted as a function of observational resolutions, aggregation scales, and prediction lead time. Here we use a state space reconstruction (SSR) approach to compare the predictability of mosquito population dynamics at weekly, biweekly, and monthly scales. We focus on the analysis of Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura populations monitored in Brunswick County (NC – USA) and find that prediction over a 7-day lead time is improved when daily observations are used, compared to the commonly used once-per-week sample. Our results demonstrate that daily observations of mosquito abundance contribute to improving mosquito predictability in two ways: (1) daily observations better capture fluctuations over short time scales, which are missed when sampling at coarser resolutions, (2) the aggregation of daily abundance observations reduces the impact of noise, thereby increasing the predictability of mosquito population dynamics as the aggregation scale is increased. We show that the evaluation of population dynamical models based on observed and predicted abundance can lead to a spuriously high apparent performance, due to the high auto-correlation in the observations used to update the model state at each successive time step. We show that the comparison of predicted and observed population change, expressed through per capita growth rates, leads to a more informative performance measure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late-successional conifers to early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age-dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age-dependent succession, the relative abundances of early-successional deciduous broadleaves and early-successional conifers have increased at the expense of late-successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO 2 promoted early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early-successional conifers at the expense of late-successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO 2 and warming will continue in the 21st century.

Description: A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) (CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern U.S. are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snowpacks, longer growing seasons and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern U.S. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrologic responses to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies, and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the evolutionary consequences of the Green Revolution, particularly in wild populations, is an important frontier in contemporary biology. Because human impacts have occurred at varying magnitudes or time periods depending on the study ecosystem, evolutionary histories may vary considerably among populations. Paleogenetics in conjunction with paleolimnology enable us to associate microevolutionary dynamics with detailed information on environmental change. We used this approach to reconstruct changes in the temporal population genetic structure of the keystone zooplankton grazer, Daphnia pulicaria , using dormant eggs extracted from sediments in two Minnesota lakes (South Center, Hill). The extent of agriculture and human population density in the catchment of these lakes has differed markedly since European settlement in the late 19 th century, and is reflected in their environmental histories reconstructed here. The reconstructed environments of these two lakes differed strongly in terms of environmental stability and their associated patterns of Daphnia population structure. We detected long periods of stability in population structure and environmental conditions in South Center Lake that were followed by a dramatic temporal shift in population genetic structure after the onset of European settlement and industrialized agriculture in its watershed. In particular, we noted a 24.3-fold increase in phosphorus (P) flux between pre-European and modern sediment P accumulation rates (AR) in this lake. In contrast, no such shifts were detected in Hill Lake, where the watershed was not as impacted by European settlement and rates of change were less directional with a much smaller increase of sediment P AR (2.3-fold). We identify direct and indirect effects of eutrophication proxies on genetic structure in these lake populations, and demonstrate the power of using this approach in understanding the consequences of anthropogenic environmental change on natural populations throughout historic time periods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The sustainability of using irrigation to produce food depends not only on the availability of sufficient water, but also on the soils ‘response’ to irrigation. Stocks of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are key components of soil organic matter (SOM), which is important for sustainable agricultural production. While there is some information about the effects of irrigation on soil C stocks in cropping systems, there is a paucity of such studies in pastoral food production systems. For this study, we sampled soils from 34 paired, irrigated and unirrigated pasture sites across New Zealand (NZ) and analysed these for total C and N. On average, irrigated pastures had significantly ( P 〈0.05) less soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) than adjacent unirrigated pastures, with differences of 6.99 t C ha −1 and 0.58 t N ha −1 in the uppermost 0.3 m. Differences in C and N tended to occur throughout the soil profile, so the cumulative differences increased with depth, and the proportion of the soil C lost from deeper horizons was large. There were no relationships between differences in soil C and N stocks and the length of time under irrigation. This study suggests SOM will decrease when pastures under a temperate climate are irrigated. On this basis, increasing the area of temperate pasture land under irrigation would result in more CO 2 in the atmosphere, and may directly and indirectly increase N leaching to groundwater. Given the large and increasing area of land being irrigated both in NZ and on a global scale, there is an urgent need to determine whether the results found in this study are also applicable in other regions and under different land management systems (e.g. arable). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: From 1890 to 2015, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions have increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from 270 mol mol −1 to 400 mol mol −1 . The effect of increased carbon emissions on plant growth and reproduction has been the subject of study of Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. These experiments have found a) an increase in internal CO 2 partial pressure (c i ) alongside acclimation of photosynthetic capacity, b) variable decreases in stomatal conductance, and c) that increases in yield do not increase commensurate with CO 2 concentrations. Our data set, which includes a 115 year long selection of grasses collected in New Mexico since 1892 is consistent with an increased c i as a response to historical CO 2 increase in the atmosphere; with invasive species showing the largest increase. Comparison with Palmer Drought Sensitivity index (PDSI) for New Mexico indicates a moderate correlation with Δ 13 C (r 2 = 0.32, p 〈 0.01) before 1950, with no correlation (r 2 = 0.00, p = 0.91) after 1950. These results indicate that increased c i may have conferred some drought resistance to these grasses through increased availability of CO 2 in the event of reduced stomatal conductance in response to short term water shortage. Comparison with C 3 trees from arid environments ( Pinus longaeva and Pinus edulis in the US Southwest) as well as from wetter environments ( Bromus and Poa grasses in New Mexico) suggest differing responses based on environment; arid environments in New Mexico see increased intrinsic water use efficiency (WUE) in response to historic elevated CO 2 while wetter environments see increased c i . The present study suggests that a) the observed increases in c i in FACE experiments are consistent with historical CO 2 increases and b) the CO 2 increase influences plant sensitivity to water shortage, through either increased WUE or c i in arid and wet environments, respectively. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous U.S., and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability versus 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species’ potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increases in natural or non-crop habitat surrounding agricultural fields have been shown to be correlated with declines in insect crop pests. However, these patterns are highly variable across studies suggesting other important factors, such as abiotic drivers, which are rarely included in landscape models, may also contribute to variability in insect population abundance. The objective of this study was to explicitly account for the contribution of temperature and precipitation, in addition to landscape composition, on the abundance of a widespread insect crop pest, the soybean aphid ( Aphis glycines Matsumura), in Wisconsin soybean fields. We hypothesized that higher soybean aphid abundance would be associated with higher heat accumulation (e.g., growing degree days), and increasing non-crop habitat in the surrounding landscape, due to the presence of the overwintering primary hosts of soybean aphid. To evaluate these hypotheses, we used an ecoinformatics approach that relied on a large dataset collected across Wisconsin over a 9-year period (2003 – 2011), for an average of 235 sites per year (n=2,110 fields total). We determined surrounding landscape composition (1.5-km radius) using publicly available satellite-derived land cover imagery and interpolated daily temperature and precipitation information from the National Weather Service COOP weather station network. We constructed linear mixed models for soybean aphid abundance based on abiotic and landscape explanatory variables and applied model averaging for prediction using an information theoretic framework. Over this broad spatial and temporal extent in Wisconsin, we found that variation in growing season precipitation was positively related to soybean aphid abundance, while higher precipitation during the non-growing season had a negative effect on aphid populations. Additionally, we found that aphid populations were higher in areas with proportionally more forest, but were lower in areas where minor crops, such as small grains, were more prevalent. Thus, our findings support our hypothesis that including abiotic drivers increases our understanding of crop pest abundance and distribution. Moreover, by explicitly modeling abiotic factors, we may be able to explore how variable climate in tandem with land cover patterns may affect current and future insect populations, with potentially critical implications for crop yields and agricultural food webs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem structure and function, potentially limiting the productivity of valuable species. Simultaneously, stochastic environmental forcing affects species productivity, often through unknown mechanisms. The interacting effects of trophic and environmental conditions complicate management of exploited ecosystems and have motivated calls for more holistic management via ecosystem-based approaches, yet the limitations to these approaches are not widely appreciated. The Chignik salmon fishery in Alaska is managed to achieve maximum sustainable yield for sockeye salmon, though research suggests that predation by less economically valuable, and thus not targeted, coho salmon during juvenile rearing limits the productivity of sockeye salmon. We examined the relationship between historical sockeye salmon recruitment and coho salmon abundance observed in the Chignik system and could not detect a clear effect of coho salmon abundance on sockeye salmon productivity, given existing data. Using simulation models, we examined the probability of detecting a known predation effect on sockeye salmon recruitment in the presence of observation error in coho salmon abundance and stochasticity in sockeye salmon recruitment. Increased recruitment stochasticity reduced the ability to detect predator effects in recruitment, an effect further strengthened when low frequency environmental variation was added to the system. Further, increased observation error biased estimates of predator effects towards zero. Thus, in systems with high observation error on predator abundances, estimates of predation effects will be substantially weaker than true effects. We examined the effects of stochasticity on the ability of an adaptive management program to learn about ecosystem structure and detect an effect of management actions intended to release a prey species from its predators. Simulation models revealed that even under scenarios of large predation effects on sockeye salmon, stochastic recruitment masked detection of an effect of increased coho salmon harvest for nearly a decade. These results highlight the challenges inherent in ecosystem-based management of predator-prey systems due to mismatched time-scales of ecosystem dynamics and the willingness of stakeholders to risk losses in order to test uncertain hypotheses. It is critical for stakeholders considering EBFM and adaptive management strategies to be aware of the potential timelines of perceiving ecosystem change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Timber harvest can adversely affect forest biota. Recent research and application suggest that retention of mature forest elements (‘retention forestry’), including unharvested patches (or ‘aggregates’) within larger harvested units, can benefit biodiversity compared to clearcutting. However, it is unclear whether these benefits can be generalized among the diverse taxa and biomes in which retention forestry is practiced. Lack of comparability in methods for sampling and analysing responses to timber harvest and edge creation presents a challenge to synthesis. We used a consistent methodology (similarly spaced plots or traps along transects) to investigate responses of vascular plants and ground-active beetles to aggregated retention at replicate sites in each of four temperate and boreal forest types on three continents: Douglas-fir forests in Washington, USA; aspen forests in Minnesota, USA; spruce forests in Sweden; and wet eucalypt forests in Tasmania, Australia. We assessed (i) differences in local (plot-scale) species richness and composition between mature (intact) and regenerating (previously harvested) forest; (ii) the lifeboating function of aggregates (capacity to retain species of unharvested forest); and whether intact forests and aggregates (iii) are susceptible to edge effects and (iv) influence the adjacent regenerating forest. Intact and harvested forests differed in composition but not richness of plants and beetles. The magnitude of this difference was generally similar among regions, but there was considerable heterogeneity of composition within and among replicate sites. Aggregates within harvest units were effective at lifeboating for both plant and beetle communities. Edge effects were uncommon even within the aggregates. In contrast, effects of forest influence on adjacent harvested areas were common and as strong for aggregates as for larger blocks of intact forest. Our results provide strong support for the widespread application of aggregated retention in boreal and temperate forests. The consistency of pattern in four very different regions of the world suggests that, for forest plants and beetles, responses to aggregated retention are likely to apply more widely. Our results suggest that through strategic placement of aggregates, it is possible to maintain the natural heterogeneity and biodiversity of mature forests managed for multiple objectives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Distributions of foliar nutrients across forest canopies can give insight into their plant functional diversity and improve our understanding of biogeochemical cycling. We used airborne remote sensing and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) to quantify canopy foliar nitrogen (N) across ~164 km 2 of wet lowland tropical forest in the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We determined the relative influence of climate and topography on the observed patterns of canopy foliar N using a gradient boosting model (GBM) technique. At a local scale, where climate and substrate where constant, we explored the influence of slope position on canopy N by quantifying canopy N on remnant terraces, their adjacent slopes and knife edged ridges. In addition, we climbed and sampled 540 trees and analyzed foliar N in order to quantify the role of species identity (phylogeny) and environmental factors in predicting canopy N. Observed canopy N heterogeneity reflected environmental factors working at multiple spatial scales. Across the larger landscape, elevation and precipitation had the highest relative influence on predicting canopy foliar N (30 and 24%), followed by soils (15%), site exposure (9%), compound topographic index (8%), substrate (6%), and landscape dissection (6%). Phylogeny explained ~75% of the variation in the filed collected foliar N data, suggesting that phylogeny largely underpins the response to the environmental factors. Taken together, these data suggest that a large fraction of the variance in canopy N across the landscape is proximately driven by species composition, though ultimately this is likely a response to abiotic factors such as climate and topography. Future work should focus on the mechanisms and feedbacks involved, and how shifts in climate may translate to changes in forest function. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Escalating wildfire in subalpine forests with stand-replacing fire regimes is increasing the extent of early-seral forests throughout the western US. Post-fire succession generates the fuel for future fires, but little is known about fuel loads and their variability in young post-fire stands. We sampled fuel profiles in 24-year-old post-fire lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia ) stands ( n =82) that regenerated from the 1988 Yellowstone Fires to answer three questions. (1) How do canopy and surface fuel loads vary within and among young lodgepole pine stands? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary with pre- and post-fire lodgepole pine stand structure and environmental conditions? (3) How have surface fuels changed between 8 and 24 years post-fire? Fuel complexes varied tremendously across the landscape despite having regenerated from the same fires. Available canopy fuel loads and canopy bulk density averaged 8.5 Mg ha -1 [range 0.0-46.6] and 0.24 kg m 3 [range: 0.0-2.3], respectively, meeting or exceeding levels in mature lodgepole pine forests. Total surface-fuel loads averaged 123 Mg ha -1 [range: 43 - 207], and 88% was in the 1000-hr fuel class. Litter, 1-hr, and 10-hr surface fuel loads were lower than reported for mature lodgepole pine forests, and 1000-hr fuel loads were similar or greater. Among-plot variation was greater in canopy fuels than surface fuels, and within-plot variation was greater than among-plot variation for nearly all fuels. Post-fire lodgepole pine density was the strongest positive predictor of canopy and fine surface fuel loads. Pre-fire successional stage was the best predictor of 100-hr and 1000-hr fuel loads in the post-fire stands and strongly influenced the size and proportion of sound logs (greater when late successional stands had burned) and rotten logs (greater when early successional stands had burned). Our data suggest that 76% of the young post-fire lodgepole pine forests have 1000-hr fuel loads that exceed levels associated with high-severity surface fire potential, and 63% exceed levels associated with active crown fire potential. Fire rotations in Yellowstone National Park are predicted to shorten to a few decades and this prediction cannot be ruled out by a lack of fuels to carry repeated fires. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Management of spatially structured species poses unique challenges. Despite a strong theoretical foundation, practitioners rarely have sufficient empirical data to evaluate how populations interact. Rather, assumptions about connectivity and source-sink dynamics are often based on incomplete, extrapolated or modeled data, if such interactions are even considered at all. Therefore, it has been difficult to evaluate whether spatially structured species are meeting conservation goals. We evaluated how estimated metapopulation structure responded to estimates of population sizes and dispersal probabilities, and to the set of populations included. We then compared outcomes of alternative management strategies that target conservation of metapopulation processes. We illustrated these concepts for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Snake River, USA. Our description of spatial structure for this metapopulation was consistent with previous characterizations. We found substantial differences in estimated metapopulation structure when we had incomplete information about all populations and when we used different sources of data (3 empirical, 2 modeled) to estimate dispersal, whereas responses to population size estimates were more consistent. Together, these findings suggest that monitoring efforts should target all populations occasionally and populations that play key roles frequently, and that multiple types of data should be collected when feasible. When empirical data are incomplete or of uneven quality, analyses using estimates produced from an ensemble of available datasets can help conservation planners and managers weigh near-term options. Doing so, we found tradeoffs in connectivity and source dominance in metapopulation-level responses to alternative management strategies that suggest which types of approaches may be inherently less risky. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing tree density that followed fire exclusion after the 1880s in the southwestern United States (US) may have also altered nutrient cycles and led to a carbon (C) sink that constitutes a significant component of the US C budget. Yet, empirical data quantifying century-scale changes in C or nutrients due to fire exclusion are rare. We used tree-ring reconstructions of stand structure from five ponderosa pine–dominated sites from across northern Arizona to compare live tree C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) storage between the 1880s and 1990s. Live tree biomass in the 1990s contained up to 3 times more C, N, and P than in 1880s. However, the increase in C storage was smaller than values used in recent US C budgets. Furthermore, trees that had established prior to the 1880s accounted for a large fraction (28 to 66%) of the C, N, and P stored in contemporary stands. Overall, our century-scale analysis revealed that forests of the 1880s were on a trajectory to accumulate C and nutrients in trees even in the absence of fire exclusion, either because growing conditions became more favorable after the 1880s or because forests in the 1880s included age or size cohorts poised for accelerated growth. These results may lead to a reduction in the C sink attributed to fire exclusion, and they refine our understanding of reference conditions for restoration management of fire-prone forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was created in response to a request from the Office of Management and Budget that the U.S. Department of Agriculture - Natural Resource Conservation Service (USDA – NRCS) document the societal benefits anticipated to accrue from a major increase in conservation funding authorized by the 2002 Farm Bill. A comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of rangeland conservation practices cost-shared with private landowners was unable to evaluate conservation benefits because outcomes were seldom documented. Four interrelated suppositions are presented to examine the causes underlying minimal documentation of conservations outcomes. These suppositions are: 1) benefits of conservation practices are considered a certainty so that documentation in not required, 2) minimal knowledge exchange between the USDA-NRCS and research organizations, 3) a paucity of conservation-relevant science, and 4) inadequate technical support for land owners following implementation of conservation practices. We then follow with recommendations to overcome potential barriers to documentation of conservation outcomes identified for each supposition. Collectively, this assessment indicates that the existing conservation practice standards are insufficient to effectively administer large conservation investments on rangelands and that modification of these standards alone will not achieve the goals explicitly stated by CEAP. We recommend that USDA-NRCS modify its conservation programs around a more comprehensive and integrative platform that is capable of implementing evidence-based conservation. Collaborative monitoring organized around landowner-agency-scientist partnerships would represent the focal point of a Conservation Program Assessment Network (CPAN). The primary network objective would be to establish missing information feedback loops between conservation practices and their agricultural and environmental outcomes to promote learning, adaptive management and innovation. Network information would be archived and made available to guide other, related conservation programs in relevant ecoregions. Restructuring conservation programs as recommend above would: 1) provide site specific information, learning and accountability that has been requested by CEAP and, 2) further advance balanced delivery of agricultural production and environmental quality goals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-year post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO 2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration resulted in 1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation, and 2) higher C:nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C:nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Restoring forest to hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded land has become a centerpiece of international plans to sequester carbon and conserve biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration will require scaling up ecological knowledge of secondary succession from small-scale field studies to predict forest recovery rates in heterogeneous landscapes. However, ecological field studies reveal widely divergent times to forest recovery, in part due to landscape features that are difficult to replicate in empirical studies. Seed rain can determine reforestation rate and depends on landscape features that are beyond the scale of most field studies. We develop mathematical models to quantify how landscape configuration affects seed rain and forest regrowth in degraded patches. The models show how landscape features can alter the successional trajectories of otherwise identical patches, thus providing insight into why some empirical studies reveal a strong effect of seed rain on secondary succession, while others do not. We show that seed rain will strongly limit reforestation rate when patches are near a threshold for arrested succession, when positive feedbacks between tree canopy cover and seed rain occur during early succession, and when directed dispersal leads to between-patch interactions. In contrast, seed rain has weak effects on reforestation rate over a wide range of conditions, including when landscape-scale seed availability is either very high or very low. Our modeling framework incorporates growth and survival parameters that are commonly estimated in field studies of reforestation. We demonstrate how mathematical models can inform forest landscape restoration by allowing land managers to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to restore tree cover. Translating quantitative forecasts into spatially-targeted interventions for forest landscape restoration could support target goals of restoring millions of hectares of degraded land and help mitigate global climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options 1 and 2. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a 2-stage modelling approach that consisted of: (1) Bayesian inferential modelling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control; and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats ( Mustela erminea ) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modelling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a 2-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The 2-stage modelling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Models predicting ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange under future climate change rely on relatively few real-world tests of their assumptions and outputs. Here we demonstrate a rapid and cost-effective method to estimate CO 2 exchange from intact vegetation patches under varying atmospheric CO 2 concentrations . We find that net ecosystem CO 2 uptake (NEE) in a boreal forest rose linearly by 4.7 ± 0.2% of the current ambient rate for every 10 ppm CO 2 increase, with no detectable influence of foliar biomass, season or nitrogen (N) fertilization. The lack of any clear short-term NEE response to fertilization in such an N-limited system is inconsistent with the instantaneous down-regulation of photosynthesis formalized in many global models. Incorporating an alternative mechanism with considerable empirical support – diversion of excess carbon to storage compounds – into an existing earth system model brings the model output into closer agreement with our field measurements. A global simulation incorporating this modified model reduces a long-standing mismatch between the modeled and observed seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 . Wider application of this chamber approach would provide critical data needed to further improve modeled projections of biosphere-atmosphere CO 2 exchange in a changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global dataset of 99 mammals that have been categorised as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant, and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger-bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.