ALBERT

Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.

Description: Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes, modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize, cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties, (2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity. Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.