ALBERT

Description: This profile provides an overview of projected climatic changes and related impacts on different sectors in Southern Africa until 2080 under different climate change scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). RCP2.6 represents the low emissions scenario that aims to keep global warming likely below 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. RCP6.0 represents a medium to high emissions scenario that is likely to exceed 2 °C. Model projections do not account for effects of future socio-economic impacts, unless indicated otherwise.

Description: Climate change increasingly affects the productivity of Uganda’s agricultural sector, with droughts and precipitation variability challenging livelihoods as well as the economic prospects of entire value chains. The country’s national policies and plans on climate change and agriculture recognise that investing in effective adaptation is key to mitigating climate risks. Yet, limited information on current and projected climate impacts on the different steps of agricultural value chains is available on which sound adaptation decisions can be based. This study aims to address this gap by providing a comprehensive climate risk analysis for two selected agricultural value chains: maize, a major food crop, and coffee (Robusta and Arabica), a major export crop. Based on ten global climate models (GCMs), we project how temperature and precipitation is expected to change under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (SSP1- RCP2.6 low emissions scenario and SSP3-RCP7.0 high emissions scenario) and how these impacts might affect maize and coffee production. In addition, interviews with key actors involved in post-harvest activities (including aggregation, processing, marketing and distribution) have been conducted, to better understand how climate change affects later stages of the value chains. Based on the projected impact analysis as well as on a participatory process with various stakeholders in Uganda, four adaptation strategies were selected for our analysis: improved maize varieties, improved maize storage, agroforestry systems for coffee production and improved coffee storage. As part of our adaptation analysis, we consider aspects of risk mitigation potential, cost-effectiveness and gender. The results have been complemented and cross-checked by expert- and literature-based assessments and two stakeholder workshops. The results of this climate risk analysis show that, in response to increasing GHG concentrations, temperatures in Uganda will increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, compared to 2004. The number of hot days and hot nights are projected to steadily increase, with severe temperature extremes especially in the north of Uganda. The majority of models project slight future increases of annual precipitation, but precipitation projections are subjected to high model uncertainties. Climatic conditions also substantially affect crop production in Uganda. The projected changes translate into modelled maize yield losses of up to 26.8 % by the end of the century, especially in high maize potential areas such as parts of the Central and Eastern regions, as well as in shifts and reductions in suitability of land to grow coffee. Arabica coffee is particularly affected with projected suitability losses of up to 20 % until 2050. Robusta suitability will only slightly, but progressively, reduce with time with higher losses expected under the high emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) of up to 5 %. Climate impacts are also felt at later stages of the value chain, significantly affecting post-harvest products, activities and finances, as well as the overall composition of the value chain. The analyses of the four adaptation strategies show that improved maize varieties and agroforestry for coffee production are examples of promising agricultural practices, both in terms of their potential to buffer projected losses due to climate change, but also in terms of cost efficiency. Beyond that, improved storage is a cost-efficient approach for both, maize and coffee, to reduce post-harvest losses and secure the products’ quality. Implementation of these strategies should take farmer types and their local context into consideration and be seen as part of broader resilience-building strategies. Aspects of inequality, such as gender and land tenure, should feed into the design of adaptation strategies. Generally, taking dynamics of the broader value chain into consideration will help to ensure the feasibility and long-term successful uptake of adaptation strategies.

Description: Zambia has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. To address current and future climate-related risks in the agricultural sector, this study provides a comprehensive climate risk analysis and evaluates suitable adaptation options to promote climate-resilient agricultural intensification in Zambia. Driven by ten global climate models under two climate change scenarios, SSP 1-RCP2.6 and SSP 3-RCP7.0, we used impact models to analyse future trends in climatic conditions and impacts on agriculture. As part of our adaptation analysis, we consider aspects of risk mitigation potential, cost-effectiveness, financing and gender. The results have been complemented and cross-checked by expert and literature-based assessments and two stakeholder workshops. Climate models project a robust trend towards increasing temperatures all over Zambia ranging between 2 °C and 2.7 °C until mid-century, with the south-western regions showing the strongest increase. Projections of mean precipitation indicate high spatial variations within the country. The drought-prone southern and central parts of the country are projected to experience a decrease in precipitation with ongoing climate change. Overall, there is a shift towards more intense climatic conditions both in terms of dry as well as wet conditions. Climate change will have various impacts on agriculture, for example, a decrease in sorghum yields. Mean sorghum yields for the whole country are projected to decrease by 5.8 to 12.2 % by mid-century with spatial and temporal disparities. The decreases are, however, only about half of the projected decrease in maize yields. This confirms that sorghum is indeed a more resilient crop compared to other cereals. Climate change also affects the extent and distribution of suitable areas for crop production in Zambia. Areas suitable for maize and sorghum production will decrease between 28 and 37 % by mid-century and move northwards within Zambia. A case study in the Kafue Catchment and parts of the Zambezi Catchment shows an increase in water demand and a decrease in water availability – leading to an overall reduction in the climate-related irrigation potential in future. The negative climate impacts on agriculture in Zambia underline the need for strong adaptation efforts. The study analyses two adaptation options, which were selected based on stakeholder priorities: Conservation agriculture and early warning systems. Conservation agriculture is a farming system that promotes minimum soil disturbance, maintenance of a permanent soil cover and diversification of plant species. It can buffer climate impacts in the near term and even increase sorghum yields by 25 to 31 % in drought-prone areas in Zambia. It can play a vital role in adapting to increasingly extreme and dry climatic conditions in Zambia in the near future. Early warning systems have a high potential for anticipating climate risks and thus improving food and nutrition security. In our analysis, we focus on a participatory approach for climate and agricultural extension services that integrates climate information and weather forecasts to inform livelihood decisions of farmers – called PICSA (Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture). The results show that the initial investment needed to employ PICSA already becomes economically beneficial after one year with returns increasing in the future. Each USD invested in PICSA generates between 3.6 and 3.8 USD in benefits depending upon the climate scenario considered. This suggests that employing PICSA is a highly cost-effective investment that constitutes an important variable in safeguarding farmers’ long-term livelihood. Generally, a combination of different adaptation options entails additional benefits. Active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory, gender-sensitive approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation options. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.

Description: Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes, modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize, cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties, (2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity. Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.