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  • Other Sources  (91,162)
  • 2020-2024  (8,052)
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  • 1
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    Does shift in trophic strategy contribute to an enhanced bleaching resilience of corals regularly exposed to upwelling? (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: In the Andaman Sea internal waves of extraordinary amplitudes and frequencies break at the continental shelf and periodically introduce cold, nutrient-rich, hypoxic deep-sea water into the surface layer. The islands of the Andaman Sea shelter coral reefs from the effects of these large amplitude internal waves (LAIW) on eastern shores and separate them from the exposed reefs on western shores. Exposed reefs harbor corals with increased heat resistance, but which processes facilitate this resistance is not yet clear. As heterotrophic feeding has been shown to play an important role in warm water coral bleaching resilience and recovery, a shift in trophic strategy through LAIW-enriched organic matter flux may contribute to thermal resistance. In this thesis I utilized modern stable isotope and fatty acid analytics on separated coral host and Symbiodinium fractions to assess the trophic strategy of two coral species Porites lutea and Pocillopora verrucosa from both shore sites of two islands in the Andaman Sea (Miang and Racha). The results reveal a complex picture, with island and species-specific effects. Pocillopora does not show large differences in fatty acid trophic and health markers, with trophic markers indicating marginal higher heterotrophy on Rachas LAIW exposed but also on Miangs sheltered site. SIBER analysis on Pocillopora signals consistent trophic strategy on both sides. Porites do show a tendency of increased heterotrophy on Miangs LAIW exposed site and a smaller increase on Rachas exposed reefs. However, SIBER analysis of both islands pooled does not support this and instead indicates higher autotrophy. Health markers in LAIW exposed Porites are slightly elevated, in concert with higher biomass and fatty acids per surface they suggest a healthier phenotype. However, Pocillopora does not demonstrate this enhanced health status with LAIW exposure. As shift towards more heterotrophy seems to be nuanced and context-dependent it is most likely not the driving factor for the elevated heating resistance observed in LAIW exposed corals.
    Keywords: Course of study: MSc Biological Oceanography
    Type: Thesis , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    2. Wochenbericht MSM129/1 (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: FS MARIA S. MERIAN MSM129/1 Warnemünde – St. John’s / Kanada 25.05. - 05.06.2024
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    1. Wochenbericht MSM129/1 (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: FS MARIA S. MERIAN MSM129/1 Warnemünde – St. John’s / Kanada 25.05. - 05.06.2024
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    Divergence between sea urchins and their microbiota following speciation (2024)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Animals have a deep evolutionary relationship with microbial symbionts, such that individual microbes or an entire microbial community can diverge alongside the host. Here, we explore these host-microbe relationships in Echinometra, a sea urchin genus that speciated with the Isthmus of Panama and throughout the Indo-West Pacific. We find that the eggs from five Echinometra species generally associate with a species-specific bacterial community and that the relatedness of these communities is largely congruent with host phylogeny. Microbiome divergence per million years was higher in more recent speciation events than in older ones. We, however, did not find any bacterial groups that displayed co-phylogeny with Echinometra. Together, these findings suggest that the evolutionary relationship between Echinometra and their microbiota operates at the community level. We find no evidence suggesting that the associated microbiota is the evolutionary driver of Echinometra speciation. Instead, divergence between Echinometra and their microbiota is likely the byproduct of ecological, geographic, and reproductive isolations.
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  • 5
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    Non‐selective microbiota reduction after the elicitation of a seaweed's immune response (2024)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Pattern-triggered immunity (PTI) is an integral part of the innate immune system of many eukaryotic hosts, assisting in the defence against pathogen invasions. In plants and animals, PTI exerts a selective pressure on the microbiota that can alter community composition. However, the effect of PTI on the microbiota for non-model hosts, including seaweeds, remains unknown. Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction complemented with 16S rRNA gene and transcript amplicon sequencing, this study profiled the impact that PTI of the red seaweed Gracilaria gracilis has on its microbiota. PTI elicitation with agar oligosaccharides resulted in a significant reduction in the number of bacteria (by 〉75% within 72 h after treatment). However, the PTI elicitation did not cause any significant difference in the community diversity or structure. These findings demonstrated that PTI can be non-selective, and this might help to maintain a stable microbiota by uniformly reducing bacterial loads.
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  • 6
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    Control of Vibrio vulnificus proliferation in the Baltic Sea through eutrophication and algal bloom management (2024)
    Nature Research
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Due to climate change the pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus proliferates along brackish coastlines, posing risks to public health, tourism, and aquaculture. Here we investigated previously suggested regulation measures to reduce the prevalence of V. vulnificus, locally through seagrass and regionally through the reduction of eutrophication and consequential formation of algal blooms. Field samples collected in the summer of 2021 covered the salinity and eutrophication gradients of the Baltic Sea, one of the largest brackish areas worldwide. Physico-, biological- and hydrochemical parameters were measured and variables explaining V. vulnificus occurrence were identified by machine learning. The best V. vulnificus predictors were eutrophication-related features, such as particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, as well as occurrence of potential phytoplankton blooms and associated species. V. vulnificus abundance did not vary significantly between vegetated and non-vegetated areas. Thus, reducing nutrient inputs could be an effective method to control V. vulnificus populations in eutrophied brackish coasts.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    Nutrient enrichment alters phytoplankton biomass and composition via silicon limitation (2024)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Despite management efforts, anthropogenic nutrient enrichments continue to enhance phytoplankton blooms worldwide. Release of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds not only provides surplus of nutrients but also disbalances their stoichiometry. Declines in the relative availability of dissolved silicon might induce limitation in diatoms, major primary producers with silicified shells. We studied experimentally how nutrient enrichment and resulting decline in dissolved silicon to nitrogen ratios (Si:N) affect the structure and functioning of natural plankton communities. Nitrate was added to create a range of Si:N ratios and phosphate was supplied in Redfield ratio to nitrogen. We also manipulated copepod abundance to understand the top-down effects on communities experiencing nutrient enrichment. Nitrogen and phosphorus additions resulted in a steep phytoplankton biomass increase, followed by a post-bloom decline. Phytoplankton bloom biomass was higher in high nitrogen treatments but during the post-bloom period this trend switched. Biomass was sustained longer in high Si:N treatments, indicating that silicon limitation terminates the bloom. Many diatom species did not benefit from nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment and diatom dominance ceased below Si:N of 0.4:1. Under high grazing pressure, silicate was taken up faster suggesting that silicification is important in diatom defense. Copepods shaped plankton communities via feeding on dinoflagellates, chlorophytes and the diatom Skeletonema costatum but there was no significant effect of nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment on copepod abundance. Our results, combined with previous studies, show that while nutrient concentrations define the total phytoplankton bloom biomass, resource ratios are important in sustaining biomass and determining community structure and composition.
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  • 8
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    Global Climatology of Low‐Level‐Jets: Occurrence, Characteristics, and Meteorological Drivers (2024)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Low-level jets (LLJs), vertical profiles with a wind speed maxima in the lowest hundred meters of the troposphere, have multiple impacts in the Earth system, but a global present-day climatology based on contemporary data does not exist. We use the spatially and temporally complete data set from ERA5 reanalysis to compile a global climatology of LLJs for studying the formation mechanisms, characteristics, and trends during the period of 1992–2021. In the global mean, LLJs are detected 21% of the time with more cases over land (32%) than over the ocean (15%). We classified the LLJs into three categories: non-polar land (LLLJ), polar land (PLLJ), and coastal (CLLJ) LLJs. For LLLJ, the averaged frequency of occurrence is 20% and 75% of them are associated with a near-surface temperature inversion as a prerequisite for an inertial oscillation. PLLJs are also associated with a temperature inversion and occur even more frequently with 59% of the time. These are also the lowest and the strongest LLJs among the three categories. CLLJs are particularly frequent in some marine hotspots, situated along the west coast of continents, with neutral to unstable stratification close to the surfaces and a stably stratified layer aloft. We found distinct regional trends in both the frequency and intensity of LLJs over the past decades, which can have implications for the emission and transport of aerosols, and the transport of atmospheric moisture. Future studies could address changes in LLJs and the associated implications in more detail, based on the here released ERA5-based LLJ data. Key Points: - First global comprehensive low-level jet (LLJ) climatology using ERA5 - Polar LLJs are the strongest and most frequent among the detected types - Distinct past trends in regional LLJ frequency and intensity
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  • 9
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    Long-term monitoring of biodiversity changes and their functional consequences in the pelagic ecosystems of the central Baltic Sea : Cruise No. AL571 (2024)
    GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: April 21th – April 30th 2022 Kiel (Germany) – Kiel (Germany) BALTIC APRIL 2022
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    Divergent future change in South Atlantic Ocean Dipole impacts on regional rainfall in CMIP6 models (2024)
    IOPScience
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: The South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) exerts strong influence on climate variability in parts of Africa and South America. Here we assess the ability of an ensemble of 35 state-of-the-art coupled global climate models to simulate the SAOD impacts on regional rainfall for the historical period (1950–2014), and their future projections (2015–2079). For both periods we consider the peak phase of the dipole in austral winter. Observational analysis reveals four regions with spatially coherent SAOD impacts on rainfall; Northern Amazon, Guinea Coast, Central Africa, and Southeast Brazil. The observed rainfall response to the SAOD over Northern Amazon (0.31 mm d−1), Guinea Coast (0.38 mm d−1), and Southeast Brazil (0.12 mm d−1) are significantly underestimated by the modeled ensemble-mean response of 0.10 ± 0.15 mm d−1, 0.05 ± 0.15 mm d−1, −0.01 ± 0.04 mm d−1, respectively. A too southerly rain belt in the ensemble, associated with warmer-than-observed Atlantic cold tongue, leads to better performance of models over Central Africa (46% simulate observations-consistent SAOD-rainfall correlations) and poor performance over the Guinea Coast (only 5.7% simulate observations-consistent SAOD-rainfall correlations). We also find divergent responses among the projections of ensemble members precluding a categorical statement on the future strength of the SAOD-rainfall relationship in a high-emissions scenario. Our results highlight key uncertainties that must be addressed to enhance the value of SAOD-rainfall projections for the affected African and South American countries.
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  • 11
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    Phenotypic plasticity drives seasonal thermal tolerance in a Baltic copepod (2024)
    Elsevier
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Highlights: • Acartia hudsonica shows strong seasonality in thermal tolerance. • The observed seasonal differences in are consistent with pheno-typic plasticity not adaptation. • Body size in A. hudsonica is negatively correlated to environmental and developmental temperature. Abstract: Seasonal changes in environmental conditions require substantial physiological responses for population persistence. Phenotypic plasticity is a common mechanism to tolerate these changes, but for organisms with short generation times rapid adaptation may also be a contributing factor. Here, we used a common garden design (11 °C and 18 °C) to disentangle the impacts of adaptation from phenotypic plasticity on thermal tolerance of the calanoid copepod Acartia hudsonica collected throughout spring and summer of a single year. Acartia hudsonica were collected from five time points across the season and thermal tolerance was determined using critical thermal maximum followed by additional measurements after one generation of common garden. As sea surface temperature increased through the season, field collected individuals showed corresponding increases in thermal tolerance but decreases in body size. Despite different thermal tolerances of wild collections, after one generation of common garden animals did not differ in within thermal treatments. Instead, there was evidence of phenotypic plasticity where higher temperatures were tolerated by the 18 °C versus the 11 °C treatment animals across all collections. Despite persisting differences between collections due to either adaptation or parental effects, acclimation also had significant effects on body size, with the warm treatment resulting in smaller individuals, consistent with the temperature size rule. Therefore, the differences in thermal tolerance and body size observed in field collected A. hudsonica were predominantly driven by plasticity rather than adaptation. However, the observed decrease in body size suggests that nutrient availability for higher trophic levels and ecosystem functioning could be impacted if temperatures consistently increase with no change in copepod abundance. This is the first record of A. hudsonica in the Baltic Sea known to the authors.
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  • 12
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    3D intrusions transport active surface microbial assemblages to the dark ocean (2024)
    National Academy of Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Significance Particulate organic carbon (POC) formed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean fuels the ecosystems in the dark ocean below. We show that mesoscale fronts and eddies, which are ubiquitous physical features in subtropical oceans, generate three-dimensional intrusions connecting the surface to deep ocean. Intrusions are enriched in total POC due to enhancement of small, nonsinking photosynthetic plankton and free-living bacteria that resemble surface microbial communities. Flow-driven export of POC, estimated using an approximation of eddy physics, is the same order of magnitude as export by sinking POC, which was previously thought to dominate export. These observations reveal coupling of surface and deep ocean productivity and biodiversity and give insight into mechanisms by which the ocean transports carbon to depth. Abstract Subtropical oceans contribute significantly to global primary production, but the fate of the picophytoplankton that dominate in these low-nutrient regions is poorly understood. Working in the subtropical Mediterranean, we demonstrate that subduction of water at ocean fronts generates 3D intrusions with uncharacteristically high carbon, chlorophyll, and oxygen that extend below the sunlit photic zone into the dark ocean. These contain fresh picophytoplankton assemblages that resemble the photic-zone regions where the water originated. Intrusions propagate depth-dependent seasonal variations in microbial assemblages into the ocean interior. Strikingly, the intrusions included dominant biomass contributions from nonphotosynthetic bacteria and enrichment of enigmatic heterotrophic bacterial lineages. Thus, the intrusions not only deliver material that differs in composition and nutritional character from sinking detrital particles, but also drive shifts in bacterial community composition, organic matter processing, and interactions between surface and deep communities. Modeling efforts paired with global observations demonstrate that subduction can flux similar magnitudes of particulate organic carbon as sinking export, but is not accounted for in current export estimates and carbon cycle models. Intrusions formed by subduction are a particularly important mechanism for enhancing connectivity between surface and upper mesopelagic ecosystems in stratified subtropical ocean environments that are expanding due to the warming climate.
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  • 13
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    Adverse effects of crushed seafloor massive sulphide deposits on the boreal deep-sea sponge Geodia barretti Bowerbank, 1858 and its associated fauna (2024)
    Elsevier
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Abundant mineral resources in the deep sea are prospected for mining for the global metal market. Seafloor massive sulphide (SMS) deposits along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are one of the potential sources for these metals. The extraction of SMS deposits will expose adjacent marine ecosystems to suspended particle plumes charged with elevated concentrations of heavy metals and other potentially toxic compounds. Up to date there is no information about the impact of mining activities on deep-sea benthic ecosystems such as abundant deep-sea sponge grounds in the North Atlantic Ocean. Sponge grounds play a major role in benthic-pelagic coupling and represent an important habitat for a diversity of vertebrates, invertebrates and microorganisms. To simulate the effects of mining plumes on benthic life in the deep sea, we exposed Geodia barretti, a dominant sponge species in the North Atlantic Ocean, and an associated brittle star species from the genus Ophiura spp. to a field-relevant concentration of 30 mg L−1 suspended particles of crushed SMS deposits. Three weeks of exposure to suspended particles of crushed SMS resulted in a tenfold higher rate of tissue necrosis in sponges. All brittle stars in the experiment perished within ten days of exposure. SMS particles were evidently accumulated in the sponge's mesohyl and concentrations of iron and copper were 10 times elevated in SMS exposed individuals. Oxygen consumption and clearance rates were significantly retarded after the exposure to SMS particles, hampering the physiological performance of G. barretti. These adverse effects of crushed SMS deposits on G. barretti and its associated brittle star species potentially cascade in disruptions of benthic-pelagic coupling processes in the deep sea. More elaborate studies are advisable to identify threshold levels, management concepts and mitigation measures to minimize the impact of deep-sea mining plumes on benthic life.
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  • 14
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    A transient coupled general circulation model(CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years (2023)
    In:  Climate of the Past
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Driven primarily by variations in the earth's axis wobble, tilt, and orbit eccentricity, our planet experienced massive glacial/interglacial reorganizations of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Pleistocene (2.58 million years ago (Ma)–11.7 thousand years ago (ka)). Even after decades of research, the underlying climate response mechanisms to these astronomical forcings have not been fully understood. To further quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2, ∼3.75∘ horizontal resolution), which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years (3 Myr). In addition to the astronomical insolation changes, CESM1.2 is forced by estimates of CO2 and ice-sheet topography which were obtained from a simulation previously conducted with the CLIMBER-2 earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our 3 Ma simulation consists of 42 transient interglacial/glacial simulation chunks, which were partly run in parallel to save computing time. The chunks were subsequently merged, accounting for spin-up and overlap effects to yield a quasi-continuous trajectory. The computer model data were compared against a plethora of paleo-proxy data and large-scale climate reconstructions. For the period from the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ∼1 Ma) to the late Pleistocene we find good agreement between simulated and reconstructed temperatures in terms of phase and amplitude (−5.7 ∘C temperature difference between Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene). For the earlier part (3–1 Ma), differences in orbital-scale variability occur between model simulation and the reconstructions, indicating potential biases in the applied CO2 forcing. Our model-proxy data comparison also extends to the westerlies, which show unexpectedly large variance on precessional timescales, and hydroclimate variables in major monsoon regions. Eccentricity-modulated precessional variability is also responsible for the simulated changes in the amplitude and flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We further identify two major modes of planetary energy transport, which played a crucial role in Pleistocene climate variability: the first obliquity and CO2-driven mode is linked to changes in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient; the second mode regulates the interhemispheric heat imbalance in unison with the eccentricity-modulated precession cycle. During the MPT, a pronounced qualitative shift occurs in the second mode of planetary energy transport: the post-MPT eccentricity-paced variability synchronizes with the CO2 forced signal. This synchronized feature is coherent with changes in global atmospheric and ocean circulations, which might contribute to an intensification of glacial cycle feedbacks and amplitudes. Comparison of this paleo-simulation with greenhouse warming simulations reveals that for an RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, the projected global mean surface temperature changes over the next 7 decades would be comparable to the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial range; but the anthropogenic warming rate will exceed any previous ones by a factor of ∼100.
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  • 15
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    Land-neutral negative emissions through biochar-based fertilization—assessing global potentials under varied management and pyrolysis conditions (2024)
    In:  Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-05
    Description: Climate stabilization is crucial for restabilizing the Earth system but should not undermine biosphere integrity, a second pillar of Earth system functioning. This is of particular con- cern if it is to be achieved through biomass-based negative emission (NE) technologies that compete for land with food production and ecosystem protection. We assess the NE con- tribution of land- and calorie-neutral pyrogenic carbon capture and storage (LCN-PyCCS) facilitated by biochar-based fertilization, which sequesters carbon and reduces land demand by increasing crop yields. Applying the global biosphere model LPJmL with an enhanced representation of fast-growing species for PyCCS feedstock production, we calculated a land-neutral global NE potential of 0.20–1.10 GtCO2 year−1 assuming 74% of the biochar carbon remaining in the soil after 100 years (for + 10% yield increase; no potential for + 5%; 0.61–1.88 GtCO 2 year−1 for + 15%). The potential is primarily driven by the achiev- able yield increase and the management intensity of the biomass producing systems. NE production is estimated to be enhanced by + 200–270% if management intensity increases from a marginal to a moderate level. Furthermore, our results show sensitivity to process- specific biochar yields and carbon contents, producing a difference of + 40–75% between conservative assumptions and an optimized setting. Despite these challenges for making world-wide assumptions on LCN-PyCCS systems in modeling, our findings point to dis- crepancies between the large NE volumes calculated in demand-driven and economically optimized mitigation scenarios and the potentials from analyses focusing on supply-driven approaches that meet environmental and socioeconomic preconditions as delivered by LCN-PyCCS.
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  • 16
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    Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries (2024)
    In:  Nature Communications
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Assessing the impacts of technological change on food security and climate change mitigation in China’s agriculture and land-use sectors (2024)
    In:  Environmental Impact Assessment Review
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: China has made substantial investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) to promote technological change (TC). Although the role of TC in enhancing agricultural production and mitigating environmental impacts is widely recognized in separate contexts, knowledge about its’ effects on food security and the environment, especially with a focus on China, is still lacking. This study uses an agro-economic optimization model to assess the impact of TC on food security and climate change mitigation. Our results indicate that TC plays an important role in improving agricultural productivity, which, in turn, contributes to a comparative advantage in agricultural trade. It also strengthens food security through lowering food prices. By contrast, a higher TC level increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, albeit marginally, due to higher agricultural production for exports. This indicates a rebound effect of agricultural productivity on GHG emissions. Therefore, additional efforts are required in China to improve food security without compromising GHG mitigation.
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  • 18
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    Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge (2024)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of daily and maximum annual discharge based on ISIMIP3a simulations from nine GHMs by comparing the simulations to observational data from 644 river gauge stations. We also assess low flows and the effects of different river routing schemes. We find that models can reproduce variability in daily and maximum annual discharge, but tend to overestimate both quantities, as well as low flows. Models perform better at stations in wetter areas and at lower elevations. Discharge routed with the river routing model CaMa-Flood can improve the performance of some models, but for others, variability is overestimated, leading to reduced model performance. This study indicates that areas for future model development include improving the simulation of processes in arid regions and cold dynamics at high elevations. We further suggest that studies attributing observed changes in discharge to historical climate change using the current model ensemble will be most meaningful in humid areas, at low elevations, and in places with a regular seasonal discharge as these are the regions where the underlying dynamics seem to be best represented.
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  • 19
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    Improving on Complexity: Ideas for Enhancing Quantitative Modeling of Climate Mobility (2024)
    In:  Annalen der Physik
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Quantitative climate mobility research has, so far, focused primarily on climate change impacts on migration outcomes. This focus has led to a separation between quantitative climate migration research and the broader field of migration studies. In this paper ways are proposed for quantitative research to better address the complexity in the relationship between climate change and mobility. First technical suggestions are presented to improve upon migration model setups and designs and highlight promising developments. Then it is argued that quantitative methodologies can broaden the scope of research inquiries by examining how climate mitigation and adaptation efforts influence mobility, as well as assessing how mobility itself impacts vulnerability.
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  • 20
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    Multi-gauge calibration comparison for simulating streamflow across the Major River Basins in Madagascar: SWAT + Toolbox, R-SWAT, and SWAT + Editor Hard calibration (2024)
    In:  Hydrology Research
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: This paper aims to improve the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performance across the Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM), specifically for SWAT simulation in the Manambolo, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins. A multi-gauge calibration was carried out to compare the performance of SWAT+ Toolbox, and R-SWAT, SWAT+ Editor Hard calibration on a monthly time step for the periods 1982–1999. We found that the SWAT+ model generated greater surface runoff, while the SWAT model resulted in higher groundwater flow in both CSFR and CHIRPS datasets. It has been demonstrated that the SWAT+ Toolbox had more potential in calibrating runoff across the MRBM compared to R-SWAT. Calibration in both methods led to a reduction in surface runoff, percolation, water yield, and curve number but increased the lateral flow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The results showed that the multi-gauge calibrations did not significantly enhance simulation performance in the MRBM compared to single-site calibration. The performance of the SWAT+ model for runoff simulation within the SWAT+ Toolbox and R-SWAT was unsatisfactory for most basins (NSE 〈 0) except for Betsiboka, Mahavavy, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, and Mangoky basins (NSE = 0.40–0.70; R2 = 0.45–0.80, PBIAS≤ ±25), whether considering the CHIRPS or CSFR datasets. Further study is still required to address this issue.
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  • 21
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    Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections (2024)
    In:  International Journal of Climatology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Central Asia (CA) is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs) are the primary forcing of the current and future climate system for the time scale of a century. By analysing observation datasets, we show that a warming of 1.2°C led to a decrease of 20% in snow-depth CA during the last 70 years, especially over the mountains. In recent decades, longer summer times and fewer icing days (more than 20 days·year−1) have exposed unprecedented shock to CA's climate system's components. Furthermore, we analyse 442 model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) and show that CMIP6 simulations are generally warmer and wetter than the CMIP5 ones in CA. For instance, under the highest emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5), CMIP6 projects a 6.1°C increase, while CMIP5 projects a 5.3°C increase, suggesting CMIP6 anticipates greater warming with high emissions. In contrast to CMIP6, the CMIP5 precipitation trends suggest a potential nonlinear relationship between increased greenhouse gas emissions and changes in precipitation, though the impact is much less pronounced than the temperature changes. Our analysis shows that CMIP6 models are more sensitive to temperature rise than CMIP5 ones. Both simulation sets' ensemble means capture well the observed warming trend. The imposed snow-melting leads to an increase in the run-off in the vicinity of glaciers. Such climatic shifts lead to more flooding events in CA. Given the projected warming range of 2–6°C in CA at the end of the century in various scenarios and models, such warming trends might be catastrophic in this region. The seasonal cycle of the temperature change indicates an extension of the glacier's melting period under future scenarios with fossil-fueled development. The models' uncertainty increases for the far-future time-slice, and warming larger than 4°C in CA is very likely among all the models and during all the seasons if no sustainable action is taken. This study also incorporates a detailed Köppen climate classification analysis, revealing significant shifts towards warmer climate categories in Central Asia, which may have profound implications for regional hydrological cycles and water resource management, particularly in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins under warmer scenario by the end of the century. The Tundra and ice cap climate categories will lose more than 60% of their coverage at the end of the century compared to the historical period in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.
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    Five priorities to advance transformative transdisciplinary research (2024)
    In:  Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: In response to the climate and biodiversity crisis, the number of transdisciplinary research projects in which researchers partner with sustainability initiatives to foster transformative change is increasing globally. To enable and catalyze substantial transformative change, transformative transdisciplinary research (TTDR) is urgently needed to provide knowledge and guidance for actions. We review prominent discussions on TTDR and draw on our experiences from research projects in the Global South and North. Drawing on this, we identify key gaps and stimulate debate on how sustainability researchers can enable and catalyze transformative change by advancing five priority areas: clarify what TTDR is, conduct meaningful people-centric research, unpack how to act at deep leverage points, improve engagement with diverse knowledge systems, and explore potentials and risks of global digitalization for transformative change.
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    Leviathan Awakens. Gas Finds, Energy Governance, and the Emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as a Geopolitical Region (2024)
    In:  The review of policy research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: This article explores the role of energy in regionalization processes, assessing the case of natural gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean (East Med). It makes three observations. First, we show that energy resources are a defining factor in shaping a region by rearranging the interactions and networks of actors involved in regionalization processes. Second, we demonstrate that such “energization” processes are not only—and not even primarily—attributable to security practices pursued by state actors. Regionalization underpinned by energy as the key governance object is characterized by a variety of actors, including governments, but also international energy companies, investors, consumers, and regulators. Third, we posit that regionalization processes cannot be fully understood without appreciating the importance of existing global and regional governance frameworks and the values ascribed to the physical resource by international market forces. The findings call on International Relations to go beyond analyzing the East Med energy region through the prism of security studies, which arguably is a function of both theoretical path dependence and a lack of attention to the insights from energy studies. Instead, a multidisciplinary research agenda promises to strengthen academic inquiry into regionalization dynamics in the East Med and the role of regions in world politics more broadly.
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    Visions for our future regional electricity system: Citizen preferences in four EU countries (2024)
    In:  iScience
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: As climate targets tighten, all countries must transition toward a renewable electricity system, but conflicts about generation and infrastructure deployment impede transition progress. Although the triggers of opposition are well studied, what people want remains understudied. We survey citizen preferences for a renewable electricity future through a conjoint analysis among 4,103 individuals in Denmark, Portugal, Poland, and Germany. With our study we go beyond the Likert scale survey approach specifically seeking trade-offs and contextualized preferences for regional electricity system designs. We show the importance of identifying both the ‘‘least preferred’’ and ‘‘most preferred’’ solutions and highlighting the possibility of identifying very different systems with identical utility. Lastly, our research actively bridges the divide between social aspects and techno-economic modeling, promoting their integration. We show that the most preferred system design in all four countries is a predominantly regional one, based on rooftop solar, communally owned, and not relying on transmission expansion.
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    On the links between climate scepticism and right-wing populism (RWP): an explanatory approach based on cultural political economy (CPE) (2024)
    In:  New political economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Various analyses show that right-wing populist parties (RWP) tend to be sceptical of climate science and policy. This points to a blank space in the dominant analyses of populism: their blindness towards society-nature relations. This paper aims to develop an approach grounded in Cultural Political Economy (CPE) that can be used to decipher the mediation of RWP within the context of economic, political, and cultural developments as well as society–nature relations. Against this background, the argument is developed that RWP is concerned not only with countering migration and processes of societal liberalisation, but also with defending an existing way of life that is firmly rooted in the destructive appropriation of nature. As a current of right-wing politics, RWP defends the imperial mode of living by expressing scepticism towards the existence of anthropogenic climate change. The paper contributes to a better understanding of the political economy of RWP by linking the dimensions of social domination with the appropriation of nature.
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    The Green Climate Fund and private sector climate finance in the Global South (2024)
    In:  Climate policy
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Governments and international organizations are increasingly using public funds to mobilize and leverage private finance for climate projects in the Global South. An important international organization in the effort to mobilize the private sector for financing climate mitigation and adaptation in the Global South is the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The GCF was established under the UNFCCC in 2010 and is the world’s largest dedicated multilateral climate fund. The GCF differs from other intergovernmental institutions through its fund-wide inclusion of the private sector, ranging from project design and financing to project implementation. In this paper, we investigate private sector involvement in the GCF through a qualitative exploratory research approach. We ask two main questions: Do private sector projects deliver on their ambitious goals? What are the tensions, if any, between private sector engagement and other principles of the GCF (most importantly the principles of country ownership, mitigation/adaptation balance, transparency, and civil society participation)? This paper argues that private sector involvement does not provide an easy way out of the financial constraints of public climate financing. We show that the GCF fails to deliver on its ambitious goals in private sector engagement for a number of reasons. First, private sector interest in GCF projects is thus far underwhelming. Second, there are strong tradeoffs between private sector projects and the Global Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation (GPEDC) principles of country ownership, transparency, and civil society participation. Third, private sector involvement is creating a mitigation bias within the GCF portfolio. Fourth, while the private sector portfolio is good at channeling funds to particularly vulnerable countries, it does so mostly through large multi-country projects with weak country ownership. Fifth, there is a danger that private climate financing based on loans and equity might add to the debt burden of developing countries, destabilize financial markets, and further increase dependency on the Global North.
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    Impacts of real-world labs in sustainability transformations: Forms of impacts, creation strategies, challenges, and methodological advances (2024)
    In:  GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Real-world labs are witnessing continued growth and institutionalization in the field of transformation-oriented sustainability research, as well as in adjacent disciplines. With their experimental research agendas, these labs aim at sustainability transformations, however, there is still a need to improve the understanding of their impacts. Drawing from this Special Issue’s contributions, we offer a broad overview of the impacts achieved by various real-world labs, highlight the diverse areas and forms of impact, and elucidate strategies as well as mechanisms for achieving impact. We present methodological advances, and address common challenges along with potential solutions for understanding and realizing impact.
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    Who believes in green growth? Strategic framing and technology leadership in the UNFCCC negotiations (2024)
    In:  Climate policy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Policymakers and governments increasingly frame climate protection in terms of green growth, arguing that continued economic growth and climate protection are complementary and mutually beneficial. With such framing, governments hope to overcome the global common goods problem associated with climate change and to enable higher ambition on climate action within and across states. Yet, no empirical evidence to date has been provided on how widespread the support for green growth is in international climate politics. This paper, therefore, investigates which countries employ green growth framings at UNFCCC negotiations, and whether this relates to domestic factors, in particular economic structure, level of development and climate impacts. We conduct panel-data analysis on green growth positions derived from hand-coding a unique dataset of High-level Segment statements at the Convention of the Parties (COPs) from 2010 to 2019 for 151 countries. The results reveal that, to date, green growth proponents are those countries with the most advanced national clean energy technology (CET) capacities–as measured by the Green Complexity Index. The findings highlight that green growth is not promoted by all countries at international climate negotiations. Key policy insights In international climate negotiations, climate protection is increasingly framed as a green growth opportunity to motivate global ambition. Clean Energy Technology (CET) leading countries are more likely to use green growth framings than other less-technologically advanced peers and those with high exposure to climate risks. Mechanisms to support green growth pathways for all countries should be scaled up, including technology transfer and finance to foster local capacities and human capital. Given that green growth framings are not universally endorsed, further emphasis should be placed on additional co-benefits of climate action beyond economic growth, such as food and energy security, adaptation and resilience-building.
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    Gaining deep leverage? Reflecting and shaping real-world lab impacts through leverage points (2024)
    In:  GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Real-world laboratories (RwLs) are gaining further traction as a means to achieve systemic impacts towards sustainability transformation. To guide the analysis of intended impacts, we introduce the concept of leverage points, discerning where, how, and to what end RwLs intervene in systems. Building on conceptual reasoning, we further develop our argument by exploring two RwL cases. Examining RwLs through the lens of the leverage points opens the way for a balanced and comprehensive approach to systemic experimentation. We invite RwL researchers and practitioners to further advance RwLs’ transformative capacity by targeting the design and emerging direction of a system, contributing to a culture of sustainability.
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    Human health and climate change in the Pacific: a review of current knowledge (2024)
    In:  Climate & development
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Observed climate changes in Pacific island countries (PICs) are causing detrimental effects on the health of communities. Increased frequency and intensity of cyclones, more extremely hot days, and changes in rainfall patterns can change the geographic distribution of vector-borne diseases, decrease food and water security and safety, and strain health service capacity. These impacts are projected to worsen with additional climate change in the absence of strong and effective mitigation and adaptation measures. Health vulnerability and adaptation assessments conducted in twelve PICs in 2014 highlighted significant knowledge gaps on the national health risks of climate change and on adaptation implementation and policy translation. We synthesize recent research to identify approaches to support evidence-based policymaking to increase resilience of health systems in the Pacific. Broad areas where further and substantial investment and support are needed include: (i) health workforce capacity development; (ii) enhanced surveillance and monitoring systems, and (iii) research to enhance understanding of risks and effective interventions and their subsequent translation into practice and policy. Finally, health facilities need urgent upgrades; many are old and located in coastal areas, and are heavy users of coal-fired electricity.
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    The effect of cap-and-trade on sectoral emissions: Evidence from California (2024)
    In:  Energy policy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: We study the impact of California’s cap-and-trade system on carbon emissions in the electricity and industrial sectors. We use US state-level panel data covering the period 2005–2019 and apply the synthetic control method to construct an optimal counterfactual for per capita emissions in each sector. In our experiment, emissions in the power sector fall below counterfactual emissions by 48%. In the industrial sector, the state’s emissions are 6% higher than those of the synthetic control unit by the end of the observation period. Thus, cap-and-trade failed to deliver decarbonization across both sectors. While the abatement in the power sector was facilitated by complementary policies and driven by a switch from natural gas to renewables, California’s policy mix has disincentivized emission reductions in the industrial sector.
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    Negotiating Visions of Waste: On the Ethics of Maintaining Waste Infrastructures (2024)
    In:  Maintenance and Philosophy of Technology : Keeping Things Going
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: This chapter focuses on the maintenance of waste infrastructures in urban areas, arguing that waste infrastructures and their maintenance should be made more visible to allow for a more extensive, ethical engagement with waste. This contribution claims that cities need to approach the (re)design of municipal waste infrastructures through dynamic maintenance and reflexive repair, wherein waste, repair and maintenance are understood as discursive processes. Waste infrastructures and their maintenance are mostly invisible in daily interactions in cities in High-Income Countries, despite the diversities in waste practices, such as collection and processing. Invisibility is an intended outcome of the design and operation of these infrastructures, stemming from a nineteenth-century waste imaginary called ‘the tidy city’. Current municipal waste infrastructures are kept invisible, upholding beliefs and practices that disvalue waste. While visions have been proposed that challenge this disvalue, few of them have been able to materialise in stratified municipal waste management systems. This engagement is seen as a first step in challenging modern notions of dirt and waste. Visibility is a (new) design criterion for municipal waste infrastructures, a criterion that the authors relate to waste-affirming beliefs and practices, elaborating on anthropological perspectives on dirt and waste.
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    The political theory of technological change: Lessons from the liberalism-ecologism debate (2024)
    In:  Politics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Little consideration has been given to the process of technological change in political theory. Given that ideas about this process play an important role in many strands of normative political thought, and are especially crucial to climate change politics, this is a remarkable oversight. It risks political theory being irrelevant to climate change mitigation. The implications of this oversight for political theory are explored here through an analysis of the liberalism-ecologism debate. The article argues that attempts to green liberalism – to move it beyond environmentalism – cannot succeed while liberalism is silent about technological change. More broadly, given that most political theory traditions make claims about technological change, claims crucial to their worldviews and normative goals, it argues that much more theorisation of the concept is necessary. Especially now that they shape how the world understands climate change mitigation, contests over the meaning of technological change are intensely political contests. Political theory needs to get much more involved.
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    Mind the gap and close it: Regulating greenhouse gas emissions from deep-sea mining in the Area (2024)
    In:  Marine policy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Deep-sea mining (DSM) will be highly energy-intensive and produce myriad emissions, including greenhouse gases (GHG). By and large, the emissions arising from DSM activities in areas beyond national jurisdiction (‘The Area’) do not yet fall within the remit of any international agreement and are thus unregulated. To close this gap, two incisive steps need to be taken. First, States must decide under which international regime(s) they want to regulate GHG-emissions from DSM operations (forum choice). Second, they must select the means to mitigate emissions (instrument choice). Forum and instrument choice should be decided in tandem as forum choice tends to influence instrument choice and vice versa. We explore the various possibilities and argue that the International Seabed Authority (ISA) is the most suitable forum, as it could implement a harmonized and targeted approach for this unique sector. We recommend that the ISA commission a technical study to assess the amount of GHG emissions expected to arise from DSM activities in the Area and evaluate the costs and benefits of implementing and enforcing various policy instruments. Such an exercise is both urgently needed and timely, particularly as the ISA is currently formulating the rules for mineral exploitation.
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    Codes of Conduct for Collaboration as Social Rule Systems for Transdisciplinary Processes (2024)
    In:  Systemic practice and action research
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: This paper addresses the need for effective and fair codes of conduct for public-good-oriented transdisciplinary processes. These processes are characterized by the production of socially robust orientations (SoROs) through mutual learning and developing better action strategies by merging knowledge from practice and science. We argue that transdisciplinary processes should be governed by an appropriate social rule system that comprises codes of conduct for collaboration (CCC) in transdisciplinary discourses. In our view, participants in a transdisciplinary process must (1) follow rules of mutuality between science and practice (accepting the otherness of the other) and (2) enable the use and integration of knowledge from science and practice (e.g., through responsibility and/or co-leadership at all levels of a project). This requires (3) a protected discourse arena similar to an expanded Chatham House Rule that facilitates the generation of groundbreaking, novel ideas for sustainable transition. In transdisciplinary processes, CCC are based on these three perspectives and can be explicitly introduced yet require cultural and situational adaptations. Many aspects of transdisciplinary processes, such as legal status (e.g., who owns the data generated, whether it is a group or formal organization), are often unclear and need further investigation.
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    Processes of sustainability transformation across systems scales: leveraging systemic change in the textile sector (2023)
    In:  Sustainability science
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Sustainability research emphasizes the importance of intervening with both individual and organizational behaviours as well as the systems that shape them to create sustainability transformations. However, to date there is a lack of studies that bridge the divide between small case-based interventions and global systems at broader scales, and the complex interactions across scales and processes. This paper works with a leverage points framework to consider systems transformation. It focuses on four individual sustainability interventions in the textile sector and explores how they are embedded within a complex set of nested systems, and how these connected systems shape the transformative potential of the interventions. By using an onion metaphor for systems with several onion layers representing the current textile sector and its multiple connected and nested systems, we integrate and reflect across four in-depth case studies, conducted over a period of 3 years, using a range of empirical research approaches. The findings show that the studied interventions all target multiple deep leverage points within their target systems of production and consumption. All are limited in fulfilling their transformative potential by a range of barriers that we trace back to the economic and policy and regulation systems that they are embedded within. The economic system enforces a paradigm of consumption-based growth, and the policy and regulation system fails to either support change, or restrict unsustainable behaviours. Our findings demonstrate the need to think across systems scales to understand leverage points and transformative change; our nested systems approach is one way to do so. We outline two promising pathways for sustainability transformations: (1) focussing on how to create spillover effects of favourable interventions in sub-systems to push outwards against the constraints of the current policy and regulation, and economic systems; and (2) by targeting actors and interventions within the policy and regulation and economic systems to create change in the paradigms and design they embody and enforce on the systems nested within them.
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    Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement (2024)
    In:  Global Sustainability
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
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    Die große Transformation: Zum Verhältnis von (Sozial-)Wissenschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft (2024)
    In:  Leviathan
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Social-ecological transformation has become an important concept in the face of profound planetary crises (loss of biodiversity, climate crisis). Recently, the needs for social scientific transformation research have become more clearly defined. We reflect on the role of the social sciences and the humanities in democratically shaping social transformation in interaction with other sectors of society. Finally, we sketch three examples that illustrate the kind of new methodological and institutional approaches to be pursued.
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    SCARLET - A European Effort to Develop HTS and MgB2Based MVDC Cables (2024)
    In:  IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Superconducting cables have been proven in a variety of pilot projects and utility installations, demonstrating several of their advantages, including compact size and low energy losses, which can make the technology economically attractive for certain applications. It is clear though that different applications impose different requirements and challenges, but also opportunities for the cables. An interesting application is high-power DC transfer at medium voltage (MVDC). The high-current capability of the superconductor allows for a reduction in voltage while maintaining or increasing the power transfer level. In this way, one MVDC superconducting cable can replace one or more conventional high-voltage DC cables. In the European project Superconducting cables for sustainable energy transition (SCARLET), two types of MVDC cables will be developed, one based on HTS and one on MgB2 materials. Additionally, protection requirements will be considered, including the development of a modular DC fault current limiter for 10 kA. A main motivation for the development is the elimination of costly high-voltage converter stations when going from high to medium voltage, e.g., for offshore wind power plants. Another feature is the combined hydrogen and electricity transmission from generation sites to industry or mobility end users. This paper describes the superconducting MVDC cable concept as well as the main challenges and research needed to develop and type test the cables.
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    “The People” and Climate Justice: Reconceptualizing Populism and Pluralism within Climate Politics (2024)
    In:  Polity : the journal of the Northeastern Political Science Association
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Today, populism is widely understood to entail an exclusionary conception of “the people” that threatens climate change action. While this threat is real, I argue that populism itself can be understood as a response to perceived exclusion and marginalization, making it possible to conceptualize a more heterogeneous conception of populism’s “people.” Examining two approaches to climate change action rooted in contrasting conceptions of the people and the elite, I argue that climate justice organizing offers a promising effort to construct a heterogeneous people and offers a powerful critique of the elite representation of climate change action in which “we are all in this together.” Yet along with this promise, climate justice organizing must navigate tensions that are inescapable within any populist formation. One neglected thread of populist history and theory offers resources for doing so; in the final section of this paper, I explore its relevance to climate justice today.
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    Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization – the cases of Spain and Germany (2024)
    In:  Climate policy
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.
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    MgB2-Based MVDC Superconducting Power Cable in Liquid Hydrogen for Hybrid Energy Distribution (2024)
    In:  IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity
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    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: The combination of liquid hydrogen and superconducting cables presents a unique opportunity to distribute both hydrogen and bulk electricity in the same infrastructure. In particular, liquid hydrogen around 20 K is ideally suited for cooling the MgB2 superconductor, resulting in a compact power cable that also leaves sufficient place for the hydrogen flow. Such a hybrid system operating in the MVDC range at 25 kV and 20 kA constitutes one of the main goals of the European project SCARLET. After a description of the rationale and benefits of the electricity - hydrogen system, various possible applications and a first distribution system are presented. Furthermore, the different cable components already designed are discussed along with the research challenges and general strategy for the development.
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    The revenue model of mainstream online social networks and potential alternatives: A scenario-based evaluation by German adolescents and adults (2024)
    In:  Technology in society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Mainstream Online Social Networks (OSNs) face extensive criticism for their revenue model and its negative consequences for users and societies. While experts often discuss alternative OSN models, little is known about potential users’ evaluations of different OSN models. To close this research gap, the present study investigates how non-expert individuals, i.e., potential users, evaluate mainstream OSNs and expert-proposed alternative models. Next to the general evaluations of different models, individual differences among users open to various OSN models were explored. Three OSN scenarios were created based on interviews with experts from academia and industry and presented to samples of German adolescents (N = 1166) and adults (N = 878): one describing the “status quo”, one “option” model similar to the model currently considered by Meta, and one describing a “public-service” broadcasting OSN. Participants rated each characteristic of the “status quo” scenario, indicated their willingness to pay for each of the three OSN models, and specified their preferred OSN model next to providing sociodemographic information. Replicated across both samples was that the “status quo” scenario received predominantly negative evaluations. Further replicated across both samples was that most participants were willing to pay for a “public-service” OSN and chose this model as the preferred one. Only a few significant relations of sociodemographic variables were observed. Consistently replicated across both samples, men rated various characteristics of the “status quo” scenario more positively, and women were more likely to prefer the “public-service” OSN. Some differences between the two samples also emerged. In summary, both adolescents and adults demonstrated receptivity to alternative OSN models, especially a public-service broadcasting OSN. Most sociodemographic factors had limited influence indicating potential widespread adoption if such an alternative was implemented – at least in Germany. Consequences arising from such a model for platform design, policy, regulation, and governance are discussed.
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    Phytoplankton physiology and functional traits under artificial upwelling with varying Si:N (2024)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Artificial upwelling has been discussed as a nature-based solution to fertilize currently unproductive areas of the ocean to enhance food web productivity and atmospheric CO2 sequestration. The efficacy of this approach may be closely tied to the nutrient stoichiometry of the upwelled water, as Si-rich water upwelling should benefit the growth of diatoms, who are key players for primary production, carbon export and food web efficiency. With a mesocosm experiment in subtropical waters, we assessed the physiological and functional responses of an oligotrophic phytoplankton community to artificial upwelling under varying Si:N ratios (0.07-1.33). Deep water fertilization led to strongly enhanced primary productivity rates and net autotrophy across Si scenarios. At the community level, Si-rich upwelling temporarily increased primary production and consistently enhanced diatom growth, producing up to 10-fold higher abundances compared to Si-deficient upwelling. At the organism level, contrasting effects were observed. On the one hand, silicification and size of diatom cells remained unaffected by Si:N, which is surprising given the direct dependency of these traits on Si. On the other hand, diatom Chlorophyll a density and carbon density were strongly reduced and particulate matter C:N was elevated under Si-rich upwelling. This suggests a reduced nutritional value for higher trophic levels under high Si:N ratios. Despite these strong qualitative changes under high Si, diatom cells appeared healthy and showed high photosynthetic efficiency. Our findings reveal great physiological plasticity and adaptability in phytoplankton under artificial upwelling, with Si-dependent trade-offs between primary producer quantity and quality.
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    Solid-phase Mn speciation in suspended particles along meltwater-influenced fjords of West Greenland (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-02
    Description: Manganese (Mn) is an essential micro-nutrient that can limit or, along with iron (Fe), co-limit phytoplankton growth in the ocean. Glacier meltwater is thought to be a key source of trace metals to high latitude coastal systems, but little is known about the nature of Mn delivered to glacially-influenced fjords and adjacent coastal waters. In this work, we combine in-situ dissolved Mn (dMn) measurements of surface waters with Mn K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) data of suspended particles in four fjords of West Greenland. Data were collected from transects of up to 100 km in fjords with different underlying bedrock geology from 64 to 70°N. We found that dMn concentrations generally decreased conservatively with increasing salinity (from 80-120 nM at salinity 〈8 to 〈40 nM at salinities 〉25). Dissolved Fe (dFe) trends in these fjords similarly declined with increasing distance from glacier outflows (declining from 〉20 nM to 〈8 nM). However, the dMn/dFe ratio increased rapidly likely due to the greater stability of dMn at intermediate salinities (i.e. 10 – 20) compared to rapid precipitation of dFe across the salinity gradient. The XAS data indicated a widespread presence of Mn(II)-rich suspended particles near fjord surfaces, with structures akin to Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates. However, a distinct increase in Mn oxidation state with depth and the predominance of birnessite-like Mn(IV) oxides was observed for suspended particles in a fjord with tertiary basalt geology. The similar dMn behaviour in fjords with different suspended particle Mn speciation (i.e., Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates and Mn(IV)-rich birnessite) is consistent with the decoupling of dissolved and particulate Mn and suggests that dMn concentrations on the scale of these fjords are controlled primarily by dilution of a freshwater dMn source rather than exchange between dissolved and particle phases. This work provides new insights into the Mn cycle in high latitude coastal waters, where small changes in the relative availabilities of dMn, dFe and macronutrients may affect the identity of the nutrient(s) proximally limiting primary production.
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    PointProcessTools.jl (2024)
    GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: This julia package implements various tools for working with simple, non-marked, one dimensional point processes. In special it implements a bootstrap-based goodness-of-fit test for parametric models.
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  • 47
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    Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations (2024)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the "initial" solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models — FOCI, EMAC, and MPI-ESM-HR. Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the short wave heating rate (SWHR) and ozone anomalies are robust and statistically significant in all three models. These "initial" solar cycle signals in SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies are sensitive to the strength of the solar forcing. Correlation coefficients of the solar cycle with the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies linearly increase along with the enhancement of the solar cycle amplitude, and this reliance becomes more complex when the solar cycle amplitude exceeds a certain threshold. In addition, the cold bias in the tropical stratopause of EMAC dampens the subsequent results of the "initial" solar signal. The warm pole bias in MPI-ESM-HR leads to a weak polar night jet (PNJ), which may limit the top-down propagation of the initial solar signal. Although FOCI simulated a so-called top-down response as revealed in previous studies in a period with large solar cycle amplitudes, its warm bias in the tropical upper stratosphere results in a positive bias in PNJ and can lead to a "reversed" response in some extreme cases. We suggest a careful interpretation of the single model result and further re-examination of the solar signal based on more climate models.
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    Economic trade-offs of harvesting the ocean twilight zone: An ecosystem services approach (2024)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The mesopelagic or ocean twilight zone (OTZ) in the ocean contains huge numbers of fish in a relatively pristine environment and may therefore attract interest as a commercial fishery. In this study we evaluate in economic terms, the likely trade-offs between the different services provided by the mesopelagic layer in the Bay of Biscay and the societal benefits of its commercial exploitation. Benefits arise mainly from the likely use of this group of species as raw material for producing fishmeal and fish oil. Costs are derived from the loss in climate regulating and cultural, services, but also from the loss in the provisioning service of other commercial species. To do so we compare the current non-exploited status with a situation in where mesopelagic fishes are harvested at levels capable of producing the Maximum Sustainable Yield. Results suggest that if mesopelagic fishes are harvested, a mean value of 1.2 million Euro loss in a year will be created in the Bay of Biscay, although in a range between 42 million Euro loss and 48 Euro million benefits. This uncertainty comes, mainly, from the limited existing knowledge of the mesopelagic fishes’ biomass but also from the uncertainty on the biomass of the rest of the species of the studied ecosystem. The large range indicates that a better understanding of the mesopelagic ecosystem is needed, however, results also show that ecosystem services under no exploitation provided by the OTZ could be more valuable than the fishmeal and fish oil that potentially could be obtained from the fishes harvested in this sea layer.
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    Detection and Tracking of Carbon Biomes via Integrated Machine Learning (2024)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: In the framework of a changing climate, it is useful to devise methods capable of effectively assessing and monitoring the changing landscape of air-sea CO2 fluxes. In this study, we developed an integrated machine learning tool to objectively classify and track marine carbon biomes under seasonally and interannually changing environmental conditions. The tool was applied to the monthly output of a global ocean biogeochemistry model at 0.25° resolution run under atmospheric forcing for the period 1958–2018. Carbon biomes are defined as regions having consistent relations between surface CO2 fugacity (fCO2) and its main drivers (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity). We detected carbon biomes by using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering (HC) methodology applied to spatial target-driver relationships, whereby a novel adaptive approach to cut the HC dendrogram based on the compactness and similarity of the clusters was employed. Based only on the spatial variability of the target-driver relationships and with no prior knowledge on the cluster location, we were able to detect well-defined and geographically meaningful carbon biomes. A deep learning model was constructed to track the seasonal and interannual evolution of the carbon biomes, wherein a feed-forward neural network was trained to assign labels to detected biomes. We find that the area covered by the carbon biomes responds robustly to seasonal variations in environmental conditions. A seasonal alternation between different biomes is observed over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Long-term trends in biome coverage over the 1958–2018 period, namely a 10 % expansion of the subtropical biome in the North Atlantic and a 10 % expansion of the subpolar biome in the Southern Ocean, are suggestive of long-term climate shifts. Our approach thus provides a framework that can facilitate the monitoring of the impacts of climate change on the ocean carbon cycle and the evaluation of carbon cycle projections across Earth System Models.
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    ResoNet: Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks (2024)
    In:  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
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    Quantifying surface urban heat island variations and patterns: Comparison of two cities in three-stage dynamic rural–urban transition (2024)
    In:  Sustainable Cities and Society
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Urban heat island (UHI) not only reflects the environmental thermal comfort and energy consumption, but also affects the urban meso‑scale climate. There are many researches related with UHI mainly focusing on urban and rural area, while neglecting dynamic rural–urban transition especially in a rapid urbanization in China. Beijing and Zhengzhou are studied by using city clustering algorithm (CCA) and boundary generation algorithm (BGA) to delineate the urban, peri‑urban and rural boundaries from 2000 to 2023 within three stages. Fourier transform model was used to identify the UHI patterns. Results show: 1) Two cities have undergone obvious expansions in 20 years, with a consistent mean LST decrease from urban to peri‑urban and rural areas in three stages. 2) The distribution of UHII was more consistent in Beijing, while it varied more in Zhengzhou across seasons. 3) The UHI patterns notably differ, with Zhengzhou experiencing variable patterns and Beijing consistently showing oblate patterns. 4) The profiles of UHII and NDVI in two cities varied seasonally and reflected urban expansions in terms of longitude and latitude. Understanding the long-term changes and patterns of urban heat islands in different cities will provide information for formulating adaptive policies for urban sustainability.
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    Emergence of rigidity percolation in flowing granular systems (2023)
    In:  Science Advances
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
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    Unequal ‘drivers’: On the inequality of mobility emissions in Germany (2024)
    In:  Energy Economics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Transportation and mobility patterns contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the drivers of these emissions, particularly for high emitters, is key to designing appropriate climate and mobility policies. In this article, we study the distribution of emissions from mobility in Germany and their drivers. We use a 2017 nation-wide mobility survey to calculate the carbon footprint of individuals associated with day-to-day and long-distance travels. We use quantile regression to investigate both socio-economic and attitudinal drivers of emissions across different categories of emitters, and for different mobility types. We discuss our results with respect to previous findings in the literature. Overall, we find that the top 10% of emitters are responsible for 51% of total emissions, and for 80% of emissions from long-distance travel. The statistical analysis reveals strong differences regarding the contribution of socio-economic drivers such as income or location at different levels of emissions. Attitudes towards different transportation modes also strongly correlate with differences in mobility behaviors.
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    Future tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity (2022)
    In:  Scientific Reports
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Climate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
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    Thalassemia and hemoglobinopathy prevalence in a community-based sample in Sylhet, Bangladesh (2023)
    In:  Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Background: Inherited blood disorders affect 7% of the population worldwide, with higher prevalences in countries in the “thalassemia belt,” which includes Bangladesh. Clinical management options for severely affected individuals are expensive; thus, targeted government policies are needed to support prevention and treatment programs. In Bangladesh, there is a lack of data, in particular community-based estimates, to determine population prevalence. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of a wide range of hemoglobinopathies and their associations with anemia in a community-based sample of women and young children in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh. - Methods: Capillary blood samples from 900 reproductive-aged women and 395 children (aged 6–37 months) participating in the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) trial in two sub-districts of Habiganj, Sylhet Division, Bangladesh were analyzed for alpha thalassemia, beta thalassemia, and other hemoglobinopathies. We examined the association of each inherited blood disorder with hemoglobin concentration and anemia using linear and logistic regression. - Results: We identified at least one inherited blood disorder in 11% of women and 10% of children. Alpha thalassemia was most prevalent, identified in 7% of women and 5% of children, followed by beta thalassemia and hemoglobin E in 2–3%. We also identified cases of hemoglobin S and hemoglobin D in this population. Having any of the identified inherited blood disorders was associated with lower hemoglobin values among non-pregnant women, largely driven by alpha and beta thalassemia. Pregnant women with beta thalassemia were also more likely to have lower hemoglobin concentrations. Among children, we found weak evidence for a relationship between hemoglobinopathy and lower hemoglobin concentrations. - Conclusions: We found a high prevalence of alpha thalassemia among both women and children in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh–higher than all other identified hemoglobinopathies combined. Community-based estimates of alpha thalassemia prevalence in Bangladesh are scarce, yet our findings suggest that alpha thalassemia may comprise the majority of inherited blood disorders in some regions of the country. We recommend that future research on inherited blood disorders in Bangladesh include estimates of alpha thalassemia in their reporting for public health awareness and to facilitate couples counseling.
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    CO2fertilization effect may balance climate change impacts on oil palm cultivation (2023)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Oil palm cultivation has become one of the world's most important drivers of land use change in the tropics causing biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. The impact of climate change and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere on oil palm productivity is not well understood. If environmental change leads to declining palm oil yields in existing cultivation areas, cultivation areas may expand or shift to other regions. Here we assess climate change impacts on palm oil production using an extended version of the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, and a range of climate scenarios from the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project. We find increasing average yields under all future climate scenarios. This contradicts earlier studies, which did not consider the potential positive effect of CO2 fertilization. If we do not account for CO2 fertilization, future yields also decrease in our simulations. Our results indicate the potentially large role of rising CO2 levels on oil palm cultivation. This highlights the importance of further applied plant science to better understand the impact of climate change and elevated CO2 levels on oil palm growth and productivity.
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    Analytical solution for the long- and short-range every-pair-interactions system (2024)
    In:  Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Many physical, biological, and social systems exhibit emergent properties arising from their components’ interactions (cells). In this study, we systematically treat every-pair interactions (a) that exhibit power-law dependence on the Euclidean distance and (b) act in structures that can be characterized using fractal geometry. It can represent the two-body interaction potential, the heat flux between two parts of a structure, friendship strength between two people, etc.. We analytically derive the average intensity of influence that one cell has on the others or, conversely, receives from them. This quantity is referred to as the mean interaction field of the cells, and we find that (i) in a long-range interaction regime, the mean interaction field increases following a power-law with the size of the system, (ii) in a short-range interaction regime, the field saturates, and (iii) in the intermediate range it follows a logarithmic behavior. To validate our analytical solution, we perform numerical simulations. For long-range interactions, the theoretical calculations align closely with the numerical results. However, for short-range interactions, we observe that discreteness significantly impacts the continuum approximation used in the derivation, leading to incorrect asymptotic behavior in this regime. To address this issue, we propose an expansion that substantially improves the accuracy of the analytical expression. We discuss applications of the every-pair interactions system proposed, and one of them is to explore a framework for estimating the fractal dimension of unknown structures. This approach offers an alternative to established methods such as box-counting or sandbox methods. Overall, we believe that our analytical work will have broad applicability in systems where every-pair interactions play a role.
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    Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change (2022)
    In:  Nature Communications
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes 〉30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes 〈30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.
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    Millennial-scale climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere influenced glacier dynamics in the Alps around 250,000 years ago (2023)
    In:  Communications Earth and Environment
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Mountain glaciers are sensitive recorders of natural and human-induced climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate and glacier response on both short and long timescales. Here we present an analysis of oxygen and carbon isotope data from speleothems formed mainly below a glacier-covered catchment in the Alps 300,000 to 200,000 years ago. Isotope-enabled climate model simulations reveal that δ18O of precipitation in the Alps was higher by approximately 1 ‰ during interstadials compared to stadials. This agrees with interstadial-stadial amplitudes of our new speleothem-based estimate after correcting for cave-internal effects. We propose that the variability of these cave-internal effects offers a unique tool for reconstructing long-term dynamics of warm-based Alpine palaeoglaciers. Our data thereby suggests a close link between North Atlantic interstadial-stadial variability and the meltwater dynamics of Alpine glaciers during Marine Isotope Stage 8 and 7d.
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    Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics (2023)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective but also constitutes an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes, as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with very simple climate models for Earth's entire history or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons and the identification of secular changes difficult. Here, we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth's history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO2 concentration decreased more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago but dropped faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there was a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the critical state about 1.2 billion years ago (unrelated to the downturn in critical CO2 values), driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance: for critical states at low solar luminosities, the ice line lies in the Ferrel cell, stabilised by the poleward winds despite moderate meridional temperature gradients under strong greenhouse warming. For critical states at high solar luminosities, on the other hand, the ice line rests at the Hadley cell boundary, stabilised against the equatorward winds by steep meridional temperature gradients resulting from the increased solar energy input at lower latitudes and stronger Ekman transport in the ocean.
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    Modelling the role of livestock grazing in C and N cycling in grasslands with LPJmL5.0-grazing (2023)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: To represent the impact of grazing livestock on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in grasslands, we implement a livestock module into LPJmL5.0-tillage, a global vegetation and crop model with explicit representation of managed grasslands and pastures, forming LPJmL5.0-grazing. The livestock module uses lactating dairy cows as a generic representation of grazing livestock. The new module explicitly accounts for forage quality in terms of dry-matter intake and digestibility using relationships derived from compositional analyses for different forages. Partitioning of N into milk, feces, and urine as simulated by the new livestock module shows very good agreement with observation-based relationships reported in the literature. Modelled C and N dynamics depend on forage quality (C:N ratios in grazed biomass), forage quantity, livestock densities, manure or fertilizer inputs, soil, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate conditions. Due to the many interacting relationships, C sequestration, GHG emissions, N losses, and livestock productivity show substantial variation in space and across livestock densities. The improved LPJmL5.0-grazing model can now assess the effects of livestock grazing on C and N stocks and fluxes in grasslands. It can also provide insights about the spatio-temporal variability of grassland productivity and about the trade-offs between livestock production and environmental impacts.
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    Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time (2023)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.
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    Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet (2023)
    In:  The Cryosphere
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios which only take gradual changes in the climate into account. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the changes in ice flow, invoked by the altered surface topography. As a first constraint, this study estimates the overall effect of extreme melt events on the cumulative mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the sea level contribution from Greenland might increase by 2 to 45 cm (0.2 % to 14 %) by the year 2300 if extreme events occur more frequently in the future under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, and the ice sheet area might be reduced by an additional 6000 to 26 000 km2 by 2300 in comparison to future warming scenarios without extremes. In conclusion, projecting the future sea level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet requires consideration of the changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events. It is crucial to individually address these extremes at a monthly resolution as temperature forcing with the same excess temperature but evenly distributed over longer timescales (e.g., seasonal) leads to less sea level rise than for the simulations of the resolved extremes. Extremes lead to additional mass loss and thinning. This, in turn, reduces the driving stress and surface velocities, ultimately dampening the ice loss attributed to ice flow and discharge. Overall, we find that the surface elevation feedback largely amplifies melting for scenarios with and without extremes, with additional mass loss attributed to this feedback having the greatest impact on projected sea level.
    Language: English
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  • 64
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    Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling (2023)
    In:  The Cryosphere
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The timescales of the flow and retreat of Greenland’s and Antarctica’s outlet glaciers and their potential instabilities are arguably the largest uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Here we derive a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of observed complex ice flow fields with geometric similarity. The scaling relation is derived under the assumption of fast, laterally confined, geometrically similar outlet-glacier flow over a slippery bed, i.e., with negligible basal friction. According to the relation, the time scaling of the outlet flow is determined by the product of the inverse of 1) the fourth power of the width-to-length ratio of its confinement, 2) the third power of the confinement depth and 3) the temperature- dependent ice softness. For the outflow at the grounding line of streams with negligible basal friction this means that the volume flux is proportional to the ice softness and the bed depth, but goes with the fourth power of the gradient of the bed and with the fifth power of the width of the stream. We show that the theoretically derived scaling relation is supported by the observed velocity scaling of outlet glaciers across Greenland as well as by idealized numerical simulations of marine ice-sheet instabilities (MISIs) as found in Antarctica. Assuming that changes in the ice-flow velocity due to ice-dynamic imbalance are proportional to the equilibrium velocity, we combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 MISI-prone Antarctic outlets. Under these assumptions the timescales in response to a potential destabilization are fastest for Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and Mellor, Ninnis and Cook Glaciers in East Antarctica; between 16 and 67 times faster than for Pine Island Glacier. While the applicability of our results is limited by several strong assumptions, the utilization and potential further development of the presented scaling approach may help to constrain time-scale estimates of outlet glacier- flow, augmenting the commonly exploited and comparatively computationally expensive approach of numerical modeling.
    Language: English
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  • 65
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    Human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages linked to remotely observed floods (2023)
    In:  Scientific Data
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: We present a new open source dataset FLODIS that links estimates of flood-induced human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages to flooded areas observed through remote sensing. The dataset connects displacement data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), as well as data on fatalities and damages from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), with the Global Flood Database (GFD), a satellite-based inventory of historic flood footprints. It thereby provides a spatially explicit estimate of the flood hazard underlying each individual disaster event. FLODIS contains two datasets with event-specific information for 335 human displacement events and 695 mortality/damage events that occurred around the world between 2000 and 2018. Additionally, we provide estimates of affected population, GDP, and critical infrastructure, as well as socio-economic indicators; and we provide geocoding for displacement events ascribed to other types of disasters, such as tropical cyclones, so that they may be linked to corresponding hazard estimates in future work. FLODIS facilitates integrated flood risk analysis, allowing, for example, for detailed assessments of local flood-damage and displacement vulnerability.
    Language: English
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    DOSE – Global data set of reported sub-national economic output (2023)
    In:  Scientific Data
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Many phenomena of high relevance for economic development such as human capital, geography and climate vary considerably within countries as well as between them. Yet, global data sets of economic output are typically available at the national level only, thereby limiting the accuracy and precision of insights gained through empirical analyses. Recent work has used interpolation and downscaling to yield estimates of sub-national economic output at a global scale, but respective data sets based on official, reported values only are lacking. We here present DOSE — the MCC-PIK Database Of Sub-national Economic Output. DOSE contains harmonised data on reported economic output from 1,661 sub-national regions across 83 countries from 1960 to 2020. To avoid interpolation, values are assembled from numerous statistical agencies, yearbooks and the literature and harmonised for both aggregate and sectoral output. Moreover, we provide temporally- and spatially-consistent data for regional boundaries, enabling matching with geo-spatial data such as climate observations. DOSE provides the opportunity for detailed analyses of economic development at the subnational level, consistent with reported values.
    Language: English
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  • 67
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    The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective (2023)
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia by mid-July, shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double jet structure and a tripolar sea-surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were identified already in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid- and upper-levels were often of remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses had primarily a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as this of 2018 is expected to occur every two out of three years in Europe under a 1.5 °C warmer world and virtually every single year under 2 °C of global warming. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of effects and provide valuable information as basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
    Language: English
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  • 68
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    Inequality in behavioural heat adaptation: an empirical study with mobility data from the transport system in New York City, NY, USA (2023)
    In:  The Lancet Planetary Health
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Background: Heat exposure, which can negatively affect human health and wellbeing, is heterogeneous within US cities. However, little is known about who can avoid heat stress by adjusting their everyday behaviour. We aimed to analyse the effect of ambient temperature on mobility, specifically subway (ie, the underground railway system) use, in New York City, NY, USA, during 2014–19. - Methods: For this empirical study, subway use across New York City was measured with turnstile data from the New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Passenger numbers were then aggregated to the zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) level. Daily observational climate data were obtained from the US National Weather Service between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Socioeconomic data at the ZCTA level originated from the American Community Survey 2019. We extracted data on population age, ethnicity, commuting, employment, median household income, rent, and health-insurance coverage. We used a fixed-effects panel-regression model to assess the influence of temperature on subway use in New York City, which was the main outcome of our study. - Findings: We obtained data for 438 subway stations across New York City. After data cleaning and preprocessing, the final aggregated data sample consisted of 238 508 instances of subway use in 1955 days across 6 years for 122 ZCTAs, with 168 days missing in the raw data and 67 days removed as outliers. The results of the fixed-effects panel-regression analysis showed a strong, non-linear effect of daily maximum temperature on subway use. Subway use was highest at 11·5°C and substantially decreased for temperatures that were colder and warmer than that, with reductions reaching 6·5% (95% CI 2·5–10·5) for the coldest temperature (ie, –6·5°C) and 10·5% (6·0–14·0) for the hottest temperature (ie, 34·5°C). Reductions differed between weekdays and weekends, when residents generally had more freedom to adjust their behaviour. Neighbourhoods that were at a socioeconomic disadvantage experienced smaller or no reductions in mobility in heat; mobility increased in neighbourhoods with beach access. - Interpretation: Our study showed that temperature had a strong, non-linear effect on subway use, but the magnitude of the effect on subway use was heterogeneous across areas of the city on warm days. Weaker avoidance of heat stress correlated with less privilege, indicating compounding health risks. Everyday behavioural adaptation to heat is therefore an effect pathway that contributes to unequal heat effects and should be explored in future research.
    Language: English
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    Calibration for an Ensemble of Grapevine Phenology Models under Different Optimization Algorithms (2023)
    In:  Agronomy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Vine phenology modelling is increasingly important for winegrowers and viticulturists. Model calibration is often required before practical applications. However, when multiple models and optimization methods are applied for different varieties, it is rarely known which factor tends to mostly affect the calibration results. We mainly aim to investigate the main source of the variability in the modelling errors for the flowering timings of two important varieties of vine in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) of Portugal; this is based on five phenology model simulations that use optimal parameters and that are estimated by three optimization algorithms (MLE, SA and SCE-UA). Our results indicate that the main source of the variability in calibration can be affected by the initially assumed parameter boundary. Restricting the initial parameter distribution to a narrow range impedes the algorithm from exploring the full parameter space and searching for optimal parameters. This can lead to the largest variation in different models. At an identified appropriate boundary, the difference between the two varieties represents the largest source of uncertainty, while the choice of algorithm for calibration contributes least to the overall uncertainty. The smaller variability among different models or algorithms (tools for analysis) compared to between different varieties could indicate the overall reliability of the calibration. All optimization algorithms show similar results in terms of the obtained goodness-of-fit: the RMSE (MAE) is 5–6 (4–5) days with a negligible mean bias and moderately good R2 (0.5–0.6) for the ensemble median predictor. Nevertheless, a similar predictive performance can result from differently estimated parameter values, due to the equifinality or multi-modal issue in which different parameter combinations give similar results. This mainly occurs for models with a non-linear structure compared to those with a near-linear one. Yet, the former models are found to outperform the latter ones in predicting the flowering timing of the two varieties in the DDR. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of carefully defining the initial parameter boundary and decomposing the total variance of prediction errors. This study is expected to bring new insights that will help to better inform users about the importance of choice when these factors are involved in calibration. Nonetheless, the importance of each factor can change depending on the specific situation. Details of how the optimization methods are applied and of the continuous model improvement are important.
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    LivWell: a sub-national Dataset on the Living Conditions of Women and their Well-being for 52 Countries (2022)
    In:  Scientific Data
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Data on women’s living conditions and socio-economic development are important for understanding and addressing the pronounced challenges and inequalities faced by women worldwide. While such information is increasingly available at the national level, comparable data at the sub-national level are missing. We here present the LivWell global longitudinal dataset, which includes a set of key indicators on women’s socio-economic status, health and well-being, access to basic services and demographic outcomes. It covers 447 regions in 52 countries and includes a total of 265 different indicators. The majority of these are based on 199 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for the period 1990–2019 and are complemented by extensive information on socio-economic and climatic conditions in the respective regions. The resulting dataset offers various opportunities for policy-relevant research on gender inequality, inclusive development and demographic trends at the sub-national level.
    Language: English
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    Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies (2023)
    In:  Communications Earth and Environment
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Classic Maya populations living in peri-urban states were highly dependent on seasonally distributed rainfall for reliable surplus crop yields. Despite intense study of the potential impact of decadal to centennial-scale climatic changes on the demise of Classic Maya sociopolitical institutions (750-950 CE), its direct importance remains debated. We provide a detailed analysis of a precisely dated speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize, that reflects local hydroclimatic changes at seasonal scale over the past 1600 years. We find that the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline occurred in the context of a pronounced decrease in the predictability of seasonal rainfall and severe drought between 700 and 800 CE. The failure of Classic Maya societies to successfully adapt to volatile seasonal rainfall dynamics likely contributed to gradual but widespread processes of sociopolitical disintegration. We propose that the complex abandonment of Classic Maya population centres was not solely driven by protracted drought but also aggravated by year-to-year decreases in rainfall predictability, potentially caused by a regional reduction in coherent Intertropical Convergence Zone-driven rainfall.
    Language: English
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    LandInG 1.0: a toolbox to derive input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem modelling at variable resolutions from heterogeneous sources (2023)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: We present the Land Input Generator (LandInG) version 1.0, a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. While LandInG 1.0 is applicable to process data for any TEM, it is developed specifically for the open-source dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena with managed Land). The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data to model inputs and allows for easy changes to the spatial resolution. It is designed to make inconsistencies between different sources of data transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with the default assumptions made here. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at 5 and 30 arcmin spatial resolution covering land, country, and region masks, soil, river networks, freshwater reservoirs, irrigation water distribution networks, crop-specific annual land use, fertilizer, and manure application. We focus on the toolbox describing the data processing rather than only publishing the datasets as users may want to make different choices for reconciling inconsistencies, aggregation, spatial extent, or similar. Also, new data sources or new versions of existing data become available continuously, and the toolbox approach allows for incorporating new data to stay up to date.
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  • 73
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    Four millennia of vegetation and environmental history above the Hyrcanian forest, northern Iran (2020)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Past vegetation, fire, and climate dynamics, as well as human impact, have been reconstructed for the first time in the highlands of the Gilan province in the Alborz mountains (above the Hyrcanian forest) for the last 4,300 cal yrs bp. Multi-proxy analysis, including pollen, spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, and geochemical analysis, has been applied to investigate the environmental changes at 2,280 m a.s.l., above the Hyrcanian forest. Dominant steppe vegetation occurred in the study area throughout the recorded period. The formation of the studied mire deposits, as well as vegetation composition, suggest a change to wetter climatic conditions after 4,300 until 1,700 cal yrs bp. Fires were frequent, which may imply long-lasting anthropogenic activities in the area. Less vegetation cover with a marked decrease of the Moisture Index (MI) suggests drier conditions between 1,700 and 1,000 cal yrs bp. A high proportion of Cichorioideae and Amaranthaceae, as well as the reduction of trees, in particular Fagus and Quercus, at lower elevations, indicate human activities such as intense livestock grazing and deforestation. Soil erosion as the result of less vegetation due to dry conditions and/or human activities can be reconstructed from a marked increase of Glomus spores and high values of K and Ti. Since 1,000 cal yrs bp, the increasing MI, as well as the rise of Poaceae and Cyperaceae together with forest recovery, suggest a change to wetter conditions. The occurrence of still frequent Cichorioideae and Plantago lanceolata along with Sordaria reflect continued intense grazing of livestock by humans.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DE)
    Description: Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (1018)
    Keywords: ddc:561 ; Late Holocene ; Northern Iran ; Multi-proxy studies ; Hyrcanian mountain vegetation ; Climate change ; Human impact
    Language: English
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    The inner life of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a central component of the atmospheric general circulation, but remarkably little is known about the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the convergence zone itself. This is true even for the structure of the low‐level convergence that gives the ITCZ its name. Following on from the major international field campaigns in the 1960s and 1970s, we performed extensive atmospheric profiling of the Atlantic ITCZ during a ship‐based measurement campaign aboard the research vessel 〈italic toggle="no"〉SONNE〈/italic〉 in summer 2021. Combining data collected during our north–south crossing of the ITCZ with reanalysis data shows the ITCZ to be a meridionally extended region of intense precipitation, with enhanced surface convergence at its edges rather than in the center. Based on the location of these edges, we construct a composite view of the structure of the Atlantic ITCZ. The ITCZ, far from being simply a region of enhanced deep convection, has a rich inner life, that is, a rich dynamical and thermodynamic structure that changes throughout the course of the year, and has a northern edge that differs systematically from the southern edge.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme CONSTRAIN http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.7051674
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; ITCZ ; Atlantic ; convergence ; observations ; reanalysis
    Language: English
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    Mélange Signatures and Low Oxygen Fugacity in Eclogite Xenoliths From the Crust‐Mantle Transition Below a Mesoproterozoic Collision Belt (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Mass transfer across the crust‐mantle boundary is a fundamental process governing planetary differentiation, the evolution of geochemical reservoirs and ore formation, controlled by physicochemical conditions at the crust‐mantle interface. In situ trace‐element, clinopyroxene 〈sup〉87〈/sup〉Sr/〈sup〉86〈/sup〉Sr and garnet Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉/ΣFe of kimberlite‐borne eclogite xenoliths from the deep (∼50 km) crust‐mantle transition below the ca. 1.2–1.0 Ga Namaqua‐Natal Fold Belt (southwestern Kaapvaal craton margin) were determined to elucidate their origin and evolution, and to constrain the oxygen fugacity of this pivotal but largely inaccessible environment. Based on a garnet source signature (NMORB‐normalized Er/Lu > 1) in pristine “gabbroic” eclogites with pronounced positive Eu, Sr, and Pb anomalies, the suite is interpreted as originating as plagioclase‐rich cumulates in oceanic crust from melts generated beneath mature oceanic lithosphere, subsequently subducted during the Namaqua‐Natal orogeny. Enriched eclogites have higher measured 〈sup〉87〈/sup〉Sr/〈sup〉86〈/sup〉Sr in clinopyroxene (up to 0.7054) than gabbroic ones (up to 0.7036), and show increasing bulk‐rock Li, Be and Pb abundances with increasing δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O in clinopyroxene, and muted Eu‐Sr‐Pb anomalies. These systematics suggest interaction with a siliceous fluid sourced from seawater‐altered oceanic sediment in a subduction mélange setting. Garnet Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉/ΣFe in deep crustal eclogites is extremely low (0.01–0.04, ±0.01 1〈italic〉σ〈/italic〉), as inherited from the plagioclase‐rich cumulate protolith, and owing to preferred partitioning into clinopyroxene at low temperatures (∼815–1000°C). Average maximum oxygen fugacities (∆logƒO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉(FMQ) = −3.1 ± 1.0 to −0.5 ± 0.7 relative to the Fayalite‐Magnetite‐Quartz buffer) are higher than in deeper‐seated on‐craton eclogite xenoliths, but mostly below sulfate stability, limiting the role of S〈sup〉6+〈/sup〉 species in oxidizing the mantle wedge.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Subduction zones represent the main interface between Earth's surface and its deep interior. Metamorphic reactions during subduction cause fluid or melt loss from seawater‐altered oceanic crust and sediment, which enriches the overlying mantle, and possibly oxidizes it. This would explain why the mantle sources of subduction zone magmas appear to be more oxidized than in other tectonic settings. However, the details of the mass transfer in this deep environment are difficult to constrain because it is inaccessible. Using rare deep‐seated magmas (kimberlites) as probes of a ca. 1.2 billion year old southern African subduction zone, we investigated eclogite fragments that originated as subducted oceanic crust and were much later plucked from the wallrocks by the ascending magma. These eclogites show elemental and isotopic signatures of interaction with subducted sediments, pointing to mingling processes similar to those observed in modern subduction zones. We also estimated their oxygen fugacity, a measure of the chemical potential of oxygen. We find that sulfur, which has been implicated in mantle oxidation, would have only been stable in these rocks in its reduced form, making even seawater‐altered eclogites sinks rather than sources of oxygen, with implications for the transfer of sulfur‐loving metals across the mantle‐to‐crust‐boundary.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Eclogite xenoliths sampling deep crust‐mantle transition below Namaqua‐Natal Fold Belt have plagioclase‐rich oceanic protoliths〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Enriched xenoliths show signatures of interaction with siliceous, subducted sediment‐derived fluids under shallow fore‐arc conditions〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉‐based eclogite oxybarometry with oxygen fugacities below sulfate stability limits the role of S〈sup〉6+〈/sup〉 species in mantle wedge oxidation〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: https://doi.org/10.60520/IEDA/113077
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; kimberlite‐borne eclogite xenoliths ; crust‐mantle transition ; subduction zone processes ; redox budget ; metallogeny ; mantle wedge oxidation
    Language: English
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    Kinematics and Convergent Tectonics of the Northwestern South American Plate During the Cenozoic (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The interaction of the northern Nazca and southwestern Caribbean oceanic plates with northwestern South America (NWSA) and the collision of the Panama‐Choco arc (PCA) have significant implications on the evolution of the northern Andes. Based on a quantitative kinematic reconstruction of the Caribbean and Farallon/Farallon‐derived plates, we reconstructed the subducting geometries beneath NWSA and the PCA accretion to the continent. The persistent northeastward migration of the Caribbean plate relative to NWSA in Cenozoic time caused the continuous northward advance of the Farallon‐Caribbean plate boundary, which in turn resulted in its progressive concave trench bending against NWSA. The increasing complexity during the Paleogene included the onset of Caribbean shallow subduction, the PCA approaching the continent, and the forced shallow Farallon subduction that ended in the fragmentation of the Farallon Plate into the Nazca and Cocos plates and the Coiba and Malpelo microplates by the late Oligocene. The convergence tectonics after late Oligocene comprised the accretional process of the PCA to NWSA, which evolved from subduction erosion of the forearc to collisional tectonics by the middle Miocene, as well as changes of convergence angle and slab dip of the Farallon‐derived plates, and the attachment of the Coiba and Malpelo microplates to the Nazca plate around 9 Ma, resulting in a change of convergence directions. During the Pliocene, the Nazca slab broke at 5.5°N, shaping the modern configuration. Overall, the proposed reconstruction is supported by geophysical data and is well correlated with the magmatic and deformation history of the northern Andes.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The tectonic reconstruction in convergent triple junctions is a particularly challenging task as the relative motion between plates could define highly changing boundaries. Indeed, the resulting interaction between these convergent plates may induce important changes in the disposition of the trenches, and in turn in the three‐dimensional geometry of the subducting plates. Therefore, these highly dynamic conditions throughout geological time may be accommodated by different phases of plate fragmentation and reorganization. These factors could explain the complex spatial‐temporal distribution of subduction‐related magmatism and the different episodes of deformation in the upper plates. This reasoning is validated in the northwestern corner of South America (SA), where the continent has been converging against the Caribbean and Farallon‐derived oceanic plates since Cretaceous time. Additionally, we study the effects of the collision and accretion of the Panama‐Choco arc with SA. To accomplish that, we review the kinematic history of the Farallon/Nazca and Caribbean oceanic plates relative to stable Guiana Craton (SA) and integrate these results with the magmatic and deformation evolution of the northern Andes, which allow us to propose a model of the geometrical evolution of the subducting slabs. The obtained model is additionally constrained by seismological data and published velocity anomalies.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The tectonics of convergent triple junctions is complicated by the relative plate motion and interaction of the involved plates〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We propose a model for the kinematic and geometric evolution of the Farallon/Nazca and Caribbean plates throughout the Cenozoic〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The interaction between the Caribbean, Nazca and South American plates is closely related to the deformation history in the Northern Andes〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Potsdam‐Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010956
    Description: Ecopetrol
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7411340
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8129751
    Keywords: ddc:551.8 ; plate kinematics ; convergent margins ; slab geometry ; Northern Andean deformation episodes
    Language: English
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    Thermische Eigenschaften von Böden (2024)
    Landesamt für Geologie und Bergbau Rheinland-Pfalz
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Ob Energiewende, die Gewinnung geothermischer Energie aus dem Boden, der Bau von unterirdischen Stromtrassen oder die Modellierung des Energiehaushalts der Erdoberfläche – die Kenntnisse der physikalisch-thermischen Eigenschaften des oberflächennahen Untergrundes sind von zentraler Bedeutung für zahlreiche Fragestellen der angewandten Bodenkunde. Böden als 3-Phasengemische aus Wasser, Luft und Festsubstanz können erhebliche Unterschiede und Differenzierungen bezüglich der thermischen Eigenschaften aufweisen. Neben dem Wasser- und Lufthaushalt sind Lagerungsdichte, Textur sowie die mineralogische Zusammensetzung entscheidende Einflussfaktoren. Auf Basis dieser Grundlagen wurden von verschiedenen Autoren Modellansätze entwickelt, um thermische Parameter bei unterschiedlichen Feuchtezuständen abzuleiten. Die meisten dieser Ansätze beruhen auf der Auswertung von repräsentativen Bodenproben, die ein möglichst breites Texturspektrum abbilden sollen. Die vorliegende Untersuchung verfolgt einen alternativen Ansatz. Durch Messungen im Routinebetrieb eines bodenphysikalischen Labors wurde ein umfangreicher Datensatz aufgebaut, der Auswertungen nach verschiedenen laboranalytischen sowie boden- und substratsystematischen Aspekten ermöglicht. Auf dieser breiten Datenbasis sollen die thermischen Eigenschaften von Böden bei definierten Randbedingungen noch genauer gefasst werden. Darüber hinaus sollen Grundlagen erarbeitet werden, die es ermöglichen, thermische Kennwerte über die Kenntnis einfacher Feldparameter möglichst präzise abzuschätzen.
    Description: research
    Keywords: ddc:631.436 ; Bodenphysik ; Wärmeleitfähigkeit ; Rheinland-Pfalz
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:book , publishedVersion
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    Fifty years after deep‐ploughing: Effects on yield, roots, nutrient stocks and soil structure (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Deep‐ploughing far beyond the common depth of 30 cm was used more than 50 years ago in Northern Germany with the aim to break root‐restricting layers and thereby improve access to subsoil water and nutrient resources. We hypothesized that effects of this earlier intervention on soil properties and yields prevailed after 50 years. Hence, we sampled two sandy soils and one silty soil (Cambisols and a Luvisol) of which half of the field had been deep‐ploughed 50 years ago (soils then re‐classified as Treposols). The adjacent other half was not deep‐ploughed and thus served as the control. At all the three sites, both deep‐ploughed and control parts were then conventionally managed over the last 50 years. We assessed yields during the dry year 2019 and additionally in 2020, and rooting intensity at the year of sampling (2019), as well as changes in soil structure, carbon and nutrient stocks in that year. We found that deep‐ploughing improved yields in the dry spell of 2019 at the sandy sites, which was supported by a more general pattern of higher NDVI indices in deep‐ploughed parts for the period from 2016 to 2021 across varying weather conditions. Subsoil stocks of soil organic carbon and total plant‐available phosphorus were enhanced by 21%–199% in the different sites. Root biomass in the subsoil was reduced due to deep‐ploughing at the silty site and was increased or unaffected at the sandy sites. Overall, the effects of deep‐ploughing were site‐specific, with reduced bulk density in the buried topsoil stripes in the subsoil of the sandy sites, but with elevated subsoil density in the silty site. Hence, even 50 years after deep‐ploughing, changes in soil properties are still detectable, although effect size differed among sites.〈/p〉
    Description: BonaRes http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100022576
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; aggregates ; carbon sequestration ; deep‐ploughing ; macronutrients ; subsoil ; Treposol
    Language: English
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  • 79
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    Northern Hemisphere Summer Insolation and Ice Volume Driven Variations in Hydrological Environment in Southwest China (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The interpretation of stalagmite δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O in terms of reflecting Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is still elusive. Here, we present high‐resolution stalagmite trace element ratios (X/Ca, X = Mg, Sr, Ba) records from southwest China covering 116.09 to 4.07 ka BP. δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O, δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C, and X/Ca values exhibit clear precessional cycles, with δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O values reflecting ASM circulation/intensity, while X/Ca ratios capture local precipitation or evapotranspiration variations. Our results show that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) is the main driver of ASM intensity and precipitation phase variation, but global ice volume modulates the response magnitude of summer precipitation to insolation. During the Last Glacial Maximum, high ice volumes caused significant monsoon precipitation to decrease. In contrast to modern observations of the tripolar distribution of precipitation in China, our record is consistent with paleo‐precipitation records in southern and northern China.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: While it is well known that global changes have led to variations in the intensity and spatial distribution of Asian monsoon precipitation, the mechanisms behind this are not well understood. Paleoclimate records are essential for revealing the drivers behind monsoon variation. However, speleothem records from the Asian monsoon region rarely provide direct information on the amount of rainfall. Here we report on multiple indicator data sets from a stalagmite in southwestern China. It could help explore the variation of monsoon precipitation over the last ∼100,000 years. We find that the increase/decrease of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation controls the increase/decrease of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, global ice volume moderates the magnitude of rainfall response to insolation, and precipitation decreases significantly during high ice volume periods. Based on the present paleo‐precipitation records evidence, the existence of the spatial pattern of increasing/decreasing rainfall in central China corresponding to decreasing/increasing rainfall in northern and southern China remains ambiguous on the orbital scales, although the feature has been captured by some of the model simulations.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Stalagmite trace elements are indicators of regional hydrological environmental variations in Southwestern China〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and global ice volume modulate the phase and amplitude variations of regional hydrological environment〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The meridional tripolar spatial pattern of precipitation in monsoon region in China on the orbital scale remains ambiguous〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: German Science Grant
    Description: Structure and Innovation Fund of the Region of Baden Württemberg
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: National Nature Science Foundation of China
    Description: Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects
    Description: Young and Middle‐age Academic and Technical Leader in Yunnan Province
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10072475
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; stalagmite ; trace elements ; Asian summer monsoon ; Northern Hemisphere summer insolation ; global ice volume ; regional hydrological environment
    Language: English
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  • 80
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    Using NIW Observations to Assess Mixed Layer Parameterizations: A Case Study in the Tropical Atlantic (2024)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) biases can cause atmospheric biases on global scales, hence SST needs to be represented well in climate models. A major source of uncertainties is the representation of turbulent mixing in the oceanic boundary layer, or mixed layer (ML). In the present study we focus on near-inertial wave (NIW) induced mixing. The performance of two mixing schemes, Turbulent Kinetic Energy and K-profile parameterization (KPP), is assessed at two sites (11.5°N, 23°W and 15°N, 38°W) in the tropical Atlantic. At 11.5°N, turbulence observations (eddy diffusivities, shear and stratification) are available for comparison. We find that the schemes differ in their representation of NIWs, but both under-represent the observed enhanced diffusivities below the observed ML. However, we find that the models do mix below the ML at 15°N when a storm passes nearby. The near-inertial oscillations remain below the ML for the following 10 days. Near-inertial kinetic energy (NIKE) biases in the models are not directly correlated with the wind speed, the MLD biases, or the stratification at the ML base. Instead, NIKE biases are sensitive to the vertical mixing scheme parameterization. NIKE biases are lowest when the KPP scheme is used. Key Points: - Observations of inertial oscillations are used to evaluate the performance of two vertical mixing schemes in two high-resolution models - Both the K-profile parameterization and the Turbulent Kinetic Energy closure underestimate the NIW-induced mixing - Near-inertial kinetic energy biases are sensitive to the vertical mixing parameterization
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 81
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    ATOMIX benchmark datasets for dissipation rate measurements using shear probes (2024)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Turbulent mixing in the ocean, lakes and reservoirs facilitates the transport of momentum, heat, nutrients, and other passive tracers. Turbulent fluxes are proportional to the rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation per unit mass, ε. A common method for ε measurements is using microstructure profilers with shear probes. Such measurements are now widespread, and a non-expert practitioner will benefit from best practice guidelines and benchmark datasets. As a part of the Scientific Committee on Oceanographic Research (SCOR) working group on “Analysing ocean turbulence observations to quantify mixing” (ATOMIX), we compiled a collection of five benchmark data of ε from measurements of turbulence shear using shear probes. The datasets are processed using the ATOMIX recommendations for best practices documented separately. Here, we describe and validate the datasets. The benchmark collection is from different types of instruments and covers a wide range of environmental conditions. These datasets serve to guide the users to test their ε estimation methods and quality-assurance metrics, and to standardize their data for archiving.
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  • 82
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    Glucose Enhances Salinity-Driven Sea Spray Aerosol Production in Eastern Arctic Waters (2024)
    ACS (American Chemical Society)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Sea spray aerosols (SSA) greatly affect the climate system by scattering solar radiation and acting as seeds for cloud droplet formation. The ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean are rapidly changing due to global warming, and the effects these changes have on the generation of SSA, and thereby clouds and fog formation in this region, are unknown. During the ship-based Arctic Century Expedition, we examined the dependency of forced SSA production on the biogeochemical characteristics of seawater using an on-board temperature-controlled aerosol generation chamber with a plunging jet system. Our results indicate that mainly seawater salinity and organic content influence the production and size distribution of SSA. However, we observed a 2-fold higher SSA production from waters with similar salinity collected north of 81°N compared to samples collected south of this latitude. This variability was not explained by phytoplankton and bacterial abundances or Chlorophyll-a concentration but by the presence of glucose in seawater. The synergic action of sea salt (essential component) and glucose or glucose-rich saccharides (enhancer) accounts for 〉80% of SSA predictability throughout the cruise. Our results suggest that besides wind speed and salinity, SSA production in Arctic waters is also affected by specific organics released by the microbiota.
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  • 83
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    Systemic Risks and Polycrisis: The need for an integrative approach (2024)
    In:  An interdisciplinary discourse on regulation. Biotic Self-Regulation: Model for Man-made Systems?
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: English
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  • 84
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    What determines local attitudes towards Jordan’s renewable energy transition? Evidence from household surveys (2024)
    In:  Climate policy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: The potential for renewable energy to encourage sustainable development raises high hopes for the future among countries in the Global South. However, there has been less research on how energy transitions are perceived outside of the Global North and democratic contexts. This paper explores attitudes towards the energy transition in Jordan, where expert interviews reveal that a strong renewable energy industry has emerged from top-down government efforts to reduce energy dependency and costs. We perform an in-person household survey with 320 respondents in areas with different transition risks and benefits, and then test a series of hypotheses using regression analysis. In the four communities surveyed, income stress and climate concern influence attitudes, as well as perceptions of community benefits. National-level concerns also matter, including energy dependency and energy costs for all Jordanians. Our results highlight the importance of context: findings from the North are not universal and understanding transitions in the Global South requires studying them in their own right. Policy insights Jordanian policymakers should reverse their policy of blocking renewables to avoid public backlash. Jordanian policymakers and funders should promote projects in communities with high economic dependence on the fossil fuel industry to ensure local support in areas facing transition risks. Policymakers should highlight collective, not just individual benefits of transitions, as perceptions of community and country benefits increase support. Policymakers in highly energy-dependent countries like Jordan should frame renewables as an answer to local and national challenges such as high energy prices. Actors wishing to promote clean energy support in different contexts should investigate local dynamics to build communication strategies that frame transitions appropriately. Jordanian policymakers should reverse their policy of blocking renewables to avoid public backlash. Jordanian policymakers and funders should promote projects in communities with high economic dependence on the fossil fuel industry to ensure local support in areas facing transition risks. Policymakers should highlight collective, not just individual benefits of transitions, as perceptions of community and country benefits increase support. Policymakers in highly energy-dependent countries like Jordan should frame renewables as an answer to local and national challenges such as high energy prices. Actors wishing to promote clean energy support in different contexts should investigate local dynamics to build communication strategies that frame transitions appropriately.
    Language: English
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  • 85
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    Gemeinwesen hacken (2024)
    In:  Organisationen hacken : Einfallstore in eine nachhaltige Arbeitswelt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 86
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    Systemische Risiken und Polykrisen: Die Notwendigkeit für einen integrativen Ansatz (2024)
    In:  Ein interdisziplinärer Diskurs zum Thema regulation. Botische Selbst-Regulation: Model für anthropogene Systeme?
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 87
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    Unternehmensimpact hacken (2024)
    In:  Organisationen hacken : Einfallstore in eine nachhaltige Arbeitswelt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 88
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    Die Zeit drängt für einen US-EU-Club für grünen Stahl (2024)
    In:  Tagesspiegel Background: Energie & Klima, 23.05.2024
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Die EU und die USA tun sich schwer mit ihrem „Club für grünen Stahl“. Es hakt an unterschiedlichen Vorstellungen zum Design, an den ungleichen Ausgangslagen und nicht zuletzt an einer drohenden Wiederwahl Donald Trumps. Aber schon ein Minimalkonsens würde zeigen, dass zwei führende Handelsmächte es ernst meinen mit dem Klimaschutz in der Stahlindustrie, ist Charlotte Unger vom RIFS überzeugt.
    Language: German
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  • 89
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    The Political Logic of Net Zero (2023)
    Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS)
    In:  RIFS Policy Brief
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Technologies for Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) only represent climate solutions in as much as they go hand in hand with deep emissions reductions. The (future) availability of CCUS and CDR technologies does not mean we can delay or avoid phasing out fossil fuels if we are to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. Likewise, the expansion of renewable energy technologies will be nowhere near adequate for meeting agreed-upon climate targets unless fossil fuels are simultaneously ramped down. Up until now, renewables have been largely in addition to, rather than substituting for fossil fuels. Achieving our climate and broader sustainable development goals will require transformations that go beyond energy systems and reevaluate the structures and institutions behind our patterns of consumption, mobility, and food production, among others.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 90
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    Regional potential of coastal ocean alkalinization with olivine within 100 years (2024)
    IOP Publishing
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The spreading of crushed olivine-rich rocks in coastal seas to accelerate weathering reactions sequesters atmospheric CO2 and reduces atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Their weathering rates depend on different factors, including temperature and the reaction surface area. Therefore, this study investigates the variations in olivine-based enhanced weathering rates across 13 regional coasts worldwide. In addition, it assesses the CO2 sequestration within 100 years and evaluates the maximum net-sequestration potential based on varying environmental conditions. Simulations were conducted using the geochemical thermodynamic equilibrium modeling software PHREEQC. A sensitivity analysis was performed, exploring various combinations of influencing parameters, including grain size, seawater temperature, and chemistry. The findings reveal significant variation in CO2 sequestration, ranging from 0.13 to 0.94 metric tons (t) of CO2 per ton of distributed olivine-rich rocks over 100 years. Warmer coastal regions exhibit higher CO2 sequestration capacities than temperate regions, with a difference of 0.4 t CO2/t olivine distributed. Sensitivity analysis shows that smaller grain sizes (10 µm) exhibit higher net CO2 sequestration rates (0.87 t/t) in olivine-based enhanced weathering across all conditions, attributed to their larger reactive surface area. However, in warmer seawater temperatures, olivine with slightly larger grain sizes (50 and 100 µm) displays still larger net CO2 sequestration rates (0.97 and 0.92 t/t), optimizing the efficiency of CO2 sequestration while reducing grinding energy requirements. While relying on a simplified sensitivity analysis that does not capture the full complexity of real-world environmental dynamics, this study contributes to understanding the variability and optimization of enhanced weathering for CO2 sequestration, supporting its potential as a sustainable CO2 removal strategy.
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  • 91
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    Diatom-mediated food web functioning under ocean artificial upwelling (2024)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Enhancing ocean productivity by artificial upwelling is evaluated as a nature-based solution for food security and climate change mitigation. Fish production is intended through diatom-based plankton food webs as these are assumed to be short and efficient. However, our findings from mesocosm experiments on artificial upwelling in the oligotrophic ocean disagree with this classical food web model. Here, diatoms did not reduce trophic length and instead impaired the transfer of primary production to crustacean grazers and small pelagic fish. The diatom-driven decrease in trophic efficiency was likely mediated by changes in nutritional value for the copepod grazers. Whilst diatoms benefitted the availability of essential fatty acids, they also caused unfavorable elemental compositions via high carbon-to-nitrogen ratios (i.e. low protein content) to which the grazers were unable to adapt. This nutritional imbalance for grazers was most pronounced in systems optimized for CO 2 uptake through carbon-to-nitrogen ratios well beyond Redfield. A simultaneous enhancement of fisheries production and carbon sequestration via artificial upwelling may thus be difficult to achieve given their opposing stoichiometric constraints. Our study suggest that food quality can be more critical than quantity to maximize food web productivity during shorter-term fertilization of the oligotrophic ocean.
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  • 92
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    The Multi-Dimensional Emergence of Climate-Induced Migrants in Rights-Based Litigation in the Global South (2024)
    In:  Journal of Human Rights Practice
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.
    Language: English
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  • 93
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    A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change (2024)
    In:  Data in Brief
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.
    Language: English
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    Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines (2024)
    In:  Nature Energy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.
    Language: English
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  • 95
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    Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2024)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive-negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net-cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive-negative tipping feedback loop in a process-based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate-induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.
    Language: English
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  • 96
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    Interpolation and sampling effects on recurrence quantification measures (2023)
    In:  Chaos
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The recurrence plot and the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are well-established methods for the analysis of data from complex systems. They provide important insights into the nature of the dynamics, periodicity, regime changes, and many more. These methods are used in different fields of research, such as finance, engineering, life, and earth science. To use them, the data have usually to be uniformly sampled, posing difficulties in investigations that provide non-uniformly sampled data, as typical in medical data (e.g., heart-beat based measurements), paleoclimate archives (such as sediment cores or stalagmites), or astrophysics (supernova or pulsar observations). One frequently used solution is interpolation to generate uniform time series. However, this preprocessing step can introduce bias to the RQA measures, particularly those that rely on the diagonal or vertical line structure in the recurrence plot. Using prototypical model systems, we systematically analyze differences in the RQA measure average diagonal line length for data with different sampling and interpolation. For real data, we show that the course of this measure strongly depends on the choice of the sampling rate for interpolation. Furthermore, we suggest a correction scheme, which is capable of correcting the bias introduced by the prepossessing step if the interpolation ratio is an integer.
    Language: English
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  • 97
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    A framework for synthetic power system dynamics (2023)
    In:  Chaos
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: We present a modular framework for generating synthetic power grids that consider the heterogeneity of real power grid dynamics but remain simple and tractable. This enables the generation of large sets of synthetic grids for a wide range of applications. For the first time, our synthetic model also includes the major drivers of fluctuations on short-time scales and a set of validators that ensure the resulting system dynamics are plausible. The synthetic grids generated are robust and show good synchronization under all evaluated scenarios, as should be expected for realistic power grids. A software package that includes an efficient Julia implementation of the framework is released as a companion to the paper.
    Language: English
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  • 98
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    Toward dynamic stability assessment of power grid topologies using graph neural networks (2023)
    In:  Chaos
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: To mitigate climate change, the share of renewable energies in power production needs to be increased. Renewables introduce new challenges to power grids regarding the dynamic stability due to decentralization, reduced inertia, and volatility in production. Since dynamic stability simulations are intractable and exceedingly expensive for large grids, graph neural networks (GNNs) are a promising method to reduce the computational effort of analyzing the dynamic stability of power grids. As a testbed for GNN models, we generate new, large datasets of dynamic stability of synthetic power grids and provide them as an open-source resource to the research community. We find that GNNs are surprisingly effective at predicting the highly non-linear targets from topological information only. For the first time, performance that is suitable for practical use cases is achieved. Furthermore, we demonstrate the ability of these models to accurately identify particular vulnerable nodes in power grids, so-called troublemakers. Last, we find that GNNs trained on small grids generate accurate predictions on a large synthetic model of the Texan power grid, which illustrates the potential for real-world applications.
    Language: English
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    Cross-border climate change impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond: Book of abstracts (2023)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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    Finding tipping points in the global steel sector: A comparison of companies in Australia, Austria, South Korea and the USA (2024)
    In:  Global environmental change: human and policy dimensions
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The global steel sector is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for significant changes in production practices and the adoption of low-carbon breakthrough technologies to achieve net-zero emissions. This study was conducted to explore positive tipping points at the company level, taking into account socio-political, economic and industry pressures that initiate the tipping process. The study operationalizes tipping points using the Triple Embededdness Framework, which incorporates indicators from the socio-political and economic environment, as well as the industry regime of companies. An analysis is performed of secondary data from four steel companies: BlueScope (Australia), POSCO (South Korea), voestalpine (Austria), and U.S. Steel (USA). The findings indicate that voestalpine is on the verge of reaching a positive tipping point, and POSCO is also on a promising track. In contrast, both BlueScope and U.S. Steel are lagging behind. In the tipping process, national policies play a critical role in expediting the transition to low-carbon steel production for frontrunners, while global climate policy has a greater leverage by influencing producers who operate in a less stringent national policy context. Additionally, the customer demand for low-carbon steel serves as a driving force for innovation and can incentivize steelmakers to produce low-carbon products.
    Language: English
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