ALBERT

Description: We use the high-resolution dynamic limb sounder (HIRDLS) high-vertical resolution ozone profiles in the northern hemisphere lower stratosphere to examine the meridional transport out of the tropics. We focus on February 2005.2007 when there are differences in the dynamical background in the lower stratosphere due to the states of the quasibiennial oscillation and polar vortex. HIRDLS data reveal a large number of low ozone laminae that have the characteristics of tropical air at midlatitudes. More laminae are observed in February in 2006 than in 2005 or 2007. Because laminae can form, move out of the tropics, and return to the tropics without mixing into the midlatitude ozone field, the number of laminae is not directly related to the net transport. We use equivalent latitude coordinates to discriminate between reversible and irreversible laminar transport. The equivalent latitude analysis shows greater irreversible transport between the tropics and lower midlatitudes in both 2005 and 2007 compared to 2006 despite the higher number of laminae observed in 2006. Our conclusion that there was more irreversible transport of tropical air into the lower midlatitudes in 2005 and 2007 is supported by equivalent length analysis of mixing using microwave limb sounder N2O measurements. This study shows that reversibility must be considered in order to infer the importance of lamination to net transport.

Description: The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

Description: A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Description: We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the DAS diabatic trajectory calculations there is too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum is thus too broad and the tropical mean age is too old as a result of mixing older mid latitude air with tropical air. Likewise the mid latitude mean age is too young due to the in mixing of tropical air. The DAS kinematic trajectory calculations show excessive vertical dispersion of parcels in addition to excessive exchange between the tropics and mid latitudes. Because air is moved rapidly to the troposphere from the vertical dispersion, the age spectrum is shifted toward the young side. The excessive vertical and meridional dispersion compensate in the kinematic case giving a reasonable tropical mean age. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same vertical and meridional dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the extra tropical mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM s are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra . show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles. These anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. The anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport scheme is too diffusive.

Description: In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Description: One of the challenges facing atmospheric scientists is to interpret trends in multi-decadal data records. Although data records from satellite instruments are not as long as some ground-based records, global coverage and resolved vertical profiles provide unique information for identifying signatures of climate change. For example, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite provided profiles of O3, H2O, HC1, HF, CH4 from October 1991 until November 2005. There are also multi-annual ground based measurements of the column HCl. Middle latitude ground-based measurements show a seasonal cycle, and the HALOE profiles show that this is driven by the seasonal change in the composition and mass of the region between the tropopause and 380K surface (the lowermost stratosphere). Understanding the processes that produce the seasonal cycle makes it possible to interpret a future change in the seasonal cycle as a marker of a change in the stratospheric residual circulation. Satellite observations have also provided key information for improving the physical basis of models used to predict future composition and climate circulation. An example is the "tape recorder" signature in tropical stratospheric water vapor, i.e., the slow ascent of high and low water vapor anomalies roughly corresponding to the tropopause temperature at the time air entered the stratosphere. This signature has become a key diagnostic of performance for climate models.

Description: Although chemistry and transport models (CTMs) include the same basic elements (photo- chemical mechanism and solver, photolysis scheme, meteorological fields, numerical transport scheme), they produce different results for the future recovery of stratospheric ozone as chlorofluorcarbons decrease. Three simulations will be contrasted: the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM driven by a single year\'s winds from a general circulation model; the GMI CTM driven by a single year\'s winds from a data assimilation system; the NASA GSFC CTM driven by a winds from a multi-year GCM simulation. CTM results for ozone and other constituents will be compared with each other and with observations from ground-based and satellite platforms to address the following: Does the simulated ozone tendency and its latitude, altitude and seasonal dependence match that derived from observations? Does the balance from analysis of observations? Does the balance among photochemical processes match that expected from observations? Can the differences in prediction for ozone recovery be anticipated from these comparisons?

Description: One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

Description: Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.

Description: Observations have shown that the global mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased in both hemispheres in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating an enhanced heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response was largely asymmetrical with respect to the equator, with a decrease in the northern hemisphere and little change in the southern hemisphere. Simulations including enhanced heterogeneous chemistry due to the presence of the volcanic aerosol reproduce a decrease of ozone in the northern hemisphere, but also produce a comparable ozone decrease in the southern hemisphere, contrary to observations. Our simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and the extratropical downwelling. The enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased the ozone in the southern hemisphere and counteracted the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic aerosol.