ALBERT

Description: Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Although there continue to be significant advances in modelling, major challenges still exist, in particular in terms of downscaling global climate model output to estimate regional and local climate patterns that are critical controls for the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. Ice sheet models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there is a critical gap in the empirical data required to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We present an overview of the project, as well as results of the initial mapping and modelling that has been used to identify high potential sites for field sampling in 2016/17 and 2017/18.

Description: Given current concern about the stability of ice sheets, and potential sea level rise, it is imperative that we are able to reconstruct and predict the response of ice sheets to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), amongst others, have highlighted that our current ability to do so is limited. Numerical ice sheet models are a central component of the work to address this challenge. An unresolved key issue in this work concerns the volume and rate of ice mass loss needed to explain the large difference between late glacial and interglacial global sea levels. Some 20% of observed sea level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cannot be attributed to any known former ice mass, indicating that this inconsistency arises from the deficiencies in modelled reconstructions of ice sheet volumes and postglacial rebound. Ice sheet models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, Dronning Maud Land (DML) presents a critical gap in the empirical data required to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry. In addition, there is poor control on regional climate histories of ice sheet margins, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is a Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on filling the critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. Here we describe a series of high-resolution modelling experiments to help identify those areas across western Dronning Maud Land that are the most sensitive to uncertainties in the regional climate history and the choice of model parameters. For this we employ a wide range of climate and ocean histories combining published outputs of 18 general circulation models for the LGM and mid-Holocene with ice core records. The modelling results together with remote sensing mapping of glacial landforms is informing and guiding cosmogenic nuclide sampling campaigns in western Dronning Maud Land starting 2016/17. Successful integration of numerical modelling and field investigations in an iterative manner is key to achieving the anticipated outcome of the MAGIC-DML project, a reconstruction of the long-term pattern and timing of vertical changes in ice surface elevation since the mid-Pliocene warm period, which will provide the missing empirical data required to constrain numerical ice sheet models.

Description: Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. Numerical models of ice sheets are a central component of work to address this challenge, and these models are tested and improved by comparing model predictions of past ice extents with field-based reconstructions (from geological and geomorphological data). However, there are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. In addition, there exist significant uncertainties in regional climate history along the ice sheet margin due to remoteness of these areas from ice core locations where detailed reconstructions of past climate conditions have been performed. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is a new Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project that aims to reconstruct vertical changes in ice extent across Dronning Maud Land as the basis for constraining numerical models of ice sheet behavior. The focus of the two planned field seasons will be in areas that have been identified as being critical for differentiating between possible past ice sheet configuration and timing. Geological reconstruction will involve the identification, mapping, and dating of glacially sculpted bedrock, ice-marginal moraines, drift sheets and erratic boulders that provide evidence for past changes in ice levels over thousands to millions of years. Prior to the field investigations, the German team is performing a detailed high-resolution modeling of the paleoglacial history and identifying areas across Dronning Maud Land that are most sensitive to the uncertainties in regional climate history and the choice of model parameters. These modeling results will be used as a basis for planning and guiding the field campaigns in East Antarctica in 2015 and 2016.

Description: Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. An international Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project MAGIC-DML aims to reconstruct the timing and pattern of ice surface elevation (thus ice sheet volume) fluctuations since the mid-Pliocene warm period on the Dronning Maud Land margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. A combination of remotely sensed geomorphological mapping, field investigations, surface exposure dating and numerical modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of Dronning Maud Land. Here we present the results from the first phase of this project, which involves high-resolution numerical simulations of the past glacial geometries and mapping of the field area using historic and recent aerial imagery together with a range of satellite acquired data.