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    Publication Date: 2020-07-20
    Description: Sea ice models have become essential components of weather, climate, and ocean models. A realistic representation of sea ice affects the reliability of process representation, environmental forecast, and climate projections. Realistic simulations of sea ice kinematics require the consideration of both large-scale and finescale geomorphological structures such as linear kinematic features (LKF). We propose a multiscale directional analysis (MDA) that diagnoses the spatial characteristics of LKFs. The MDA is different from previous analyses in that it (i) does not detect LKFs as objects, (ii) takes into account the width of LKFs, and (iii) estimates scale-dependent orientation and intersection angles. The MDA is applied to pairs of deformation fields derived from satellite remote sensing data and from a numerical model simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of ~4.5 km. The orientation and intersection angles of LKFs agree with the observations and confirm the visual impression that the intersection angles tend to be smaller in the satellite data compared to the model data. The MDA distributions can be used to compare satellite data and numerical model fields using conventional metrics such as a Euclidean distance, the Bhattacharyya coefficient, or the Earth mover’s distance. The latter is found to be the most meaningful metric to compare distributions of LKF orientations and intersection angles. The MDA proposed here provides a tool to diagnose if modified sea ice rheologies lead to more realistic simulations of LKFs.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: We combine satellite data products to provide a first and general overview of the physical sea ice conditions along the drift of the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a comparison with previous years (2005–2006 to 2018–2019). We find that the MOSAiC drift was around 20 % faster than the climatological mean drift, as a consequence of large-scale low-pressure anomalies prevailing around the Barents–Kara–Laptev sea region between January and March. In winter (October–April), satellite observations show that the sea ice in the vicinity of the Central Observatory (CO; 50 km radius) was rather thin compared to the previous years along the same trajectory. Unlike ice thickness, satellite-derived sea ice concentration, lead frequency and snow thickness during winter months were close to the long-term mean with little variability. With the onset of spring and decreasing distance to the Fram Strait, variability in ice concentration and lead activity increased. In addition, the frequency and strength of deformation events (divergence, convergence and shear) were higher during summer than during winter. Overall, we find that sea ice conditions observed within 5 km distance of the CO are representative for the wider (50 and 100 km) surroundings. An exception is the ice thickness; here we find that sea ice within 50 km radius of the CO was thinner than sea ice within a 100 km radius by a small but consistent factor (4 %) for successive monthly averages. Moreover, satellite acquisitions indicate that the formation of large melt ponds began earlier on the MOSAiC floe than on neighbouring floes.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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    Publication Date: 2020-05-11
    Description: Sea ice models have become essential components of weather, climate and ocean models. The reliability of process studies, environmental forecasts and climate projections alike depend on a realistic representation of sea ice. Developing and evaluating sea ice models requires methods for both large scales and fine-scale geomorphological structures such as linear kinematic features (LKF). We introduce a Multiscale Directional Analysis (MDA) method that diagnoses distributions of LKF orientation and intersection angles. The MDA method is different from previous methods in that it (a) takes into account the width of LKFs instead of estimating the orientation of centerlines; (b) separates curve-like features from point-like features providing the opportunity to reach a unified definition of LKF in both numerical and observational fields; (c) estimates scale-dependent intersection angles.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 7
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    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Monthly Weather Review, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 148(8), pp. 3287-3303, ISSN: 0027-0644
    Publication Date: 2020-07-28
    Description: Sea ice models have become essential components of weather, climate, and ocean models. A realistic representation of sea ice affects the reliability of process representation, environmental forecast, and climate projections. Realistic simulations of sea ice kinematics require the consideration of both large-scale and finescale geomorphological structures such as linear kinematic features (LKF). We propose a multiscale directional analysis (MDA) that diagnoses the spatial characteristics of LKFs. The MDA is different from previous analyses in that it (i) does not detect LKFs as objects, (ii) takes into account the width of LKFs, and (iii) estimates scale-dependent orientation and intersection angles. The MDA is applied to pairs of deformation fields derived from satellite remote sensing data and from a numerical model simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of ~4.5 km. The orientation and intersection angles of LKFs agree with the observations and confirm the visual impression that the intersection angles tend to be smaller in the satellite data compared to the model data. The MDA distributions can be used to compare satellite data and numerical model fields using conventional metrics such as a Euclidean distance, the Bhattacharyya coefficient, or the Earth mover’s distance. The latter is found to be the most meaningful metric to compare distributions of LKF orientations and intersection angles. The MDA proposed here provides a tool to diagnose if modified sea ice rheologies lead to more realistic simulations of LKFs.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-10-05
    Description: The Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) participates for the first time in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP6. The sea ice‐ocean component, FESOM, runs on an unstructured mesh with horizontal resolutions ranging from 8 to 80 km. FESOM is coupled to the Max Planck Institute atmospheric model ECHAM 6.3 at a horizontal resolution of about 100 km. Using objective performance indices, it is shown that AWI‐CM performs better than the average of CMIP5 models. AWI‐CM shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, which is similar to the CMIP5 average, and a transient climate response of 2.1°C which is slightly higher than the CMIP5 average. The negative trend of Arctic sea‐ice extent in September over the past 30 years is 20–30% weaker in our simulations compared to observations. With the strongest emission scenario, the AMOC decreases by 25% until the end of the century which is less than the CMIP5 average of 40%. Patterns and even magnitude of simulated temperature and precipitation changes at the end of this century compared to present‐day climate under the strong emission scenario SSP585 are similar to the multi‐model CMIP5 mean. The simulations show a 11°C warming north of the Barents Sea and around 2°C to 3°C over most parts of the ocean as well as a wetting of the Arctic, subpolar, tropical, and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, in the northern middle latitudes in boreal summer and autumn as well as in the southern middle latitudes, a more zonal atmospheric flow is projected throughout the year.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-02-09
    Description: Despite ongoing global warming and strong sea ice decline in the Arctic, the sea ice extent around the Antarctic continent has not declined during the satellite era since 1979. This is in stark contrast to existing climate models that tend to show a strong negative sea ice trend for the same period; hence the confidence in projected Antarctic sea-ice changes is considered to be low. In the years since 2016, there has been significantly lower Antarctic sea ice extent, which some consider a sign of imminent change; however, others have argued that sea ice extent is expected to regress to the weak decadal trend in the near future. In this presentation, we show results from climate change projections with a new climate model that allows the simulation of mesoscale eddies in dynamically active ocean regions in a computationally efficient way. We find that the high-resolution configuration (HR) favours periods of stable Antarctic sea ice extent in September as observed over the satellite era. Sea ice is not projected to decline well into the 21st century in the HR simulations, which is similar to the delaying effect of, e.g., added glacial melt water in recent studies. The HR ocean configurations simulate an ocean heat transport that responds differently to global warming and is more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming of the Southern Ocean. As a consequence, decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent is significantly delayed, in contrast to what existing coarser-resolution climate models predict. Other explanations why current models simulate a non-observed decline of Antarctic sea-ice have been put forward, including the choice of included sea ice physics and underestimated simulated trends in westerly winds. Our results provide an alternative mechanism that might be strong enough to explain the gap between modeled and observed trends alone.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: We have equipped the unstructured‐mesh global sea‐ice and ocean model FESOM2 with a set of physical parameterizations derived from the single‐column sea‐ice model Icepack. The update has substantially broadened the range of physical processes that can be represented by the model. The new features are directly implemented on the unstructured FESOM2 mesh, and thereby benefit from the flexibility that comes with it in terms of spatial resolution. A subset of the parameter space of three model configurations, with increasing complexity, has been calibrated with an iterative Green's function optimization method to test the impact of the model update on the sea‐ice representation. Furthermore, to explore the sensitivity of the results to different atmospheric forcings, each model configuration was calibrated separately for the NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 and ERA5 forcings. The results suggest that a complex model formulation leads to a better agreement between modeled and the observed sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness, while differences are smaller for sea‐ice thickness and drift speed. However, the choice of the atmospheric forcing also impacts the agreement of the FESOM2 simulations and observations, with NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 being particularly beneficial for the simulated sea‐ice concentration and ERA5 for sea‐ice drift speed. In this respect, our results indicate that parameter calibration can better compensate for differences among atmospheric forcings in a simpler model (i.e., sea‐ice has no heat capacity) than in more realistic formulations with a prognostic sea‐ice thickness distribution and sea ice enthalpy.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The role of model complexity in determining the performance of sea‐ice numerical simulations is still not completely understood. Some studies suggest that a more sophisticated description of the sea‐ice physics leads to simulations that agree better with sea‐ice observations. Others, however, fail to establish a link between complex model formulations and improved model performance. Here, we investigate this open question by analyzing a set of sea‐ice simulations performed with a revised and improved sea‐ice model that features substantial modularity in terms of model complexity. Ten model parameters in three different model configurations are optimized to improve the agreement between model results and observations, allowing a fair comparison between model configurations with varying complexity. The model optimization is repeated for two different atmospheric forcings to shed light on the relationship between model complexity and other sources of uncertainty in the sea‐ice simulations, such as those associated with the atmospheric conditions. The results suggest that a more complex formulation of our model can lead to a more appropriate representation of sea ice concentration and snow thickness, while it is less relevant for sea‐ice thickness and drift.
    Description: Key Points: Increased sea‐ice model complexity can improve the simulated sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness Sea‐ice thickness and drift are only weakly affected by model complexity Parameter calibration can better compensate for differences between atmospheric forcings in a simpler model
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: European Commission (EC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
    Description: US Department of Energy (DOE)
    Keywords: 551.343 ; Arctic ; FESOM2 ; Green's function ; parameter optimization ; sea ice ; unstructured mesh
    Type: article
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