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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: We combine satellite data products to provide a first and general overview of the physical sea ice conditions along the drift of the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a comparison with previous years (2005–2006 to 2018–2019). We find that the MOSAiC drift was around 20 % faster than the climatological mean drift, as a consequence of large-scale low-pressure anomalies prevailing around the Barents–Kara–Laptev sea region between January and March. In winter (October–April), satellite observations show that the sea ice in the vicinity of the Central Observatory (CO; 50 km radius) was rather thin compared to the previous years along the same trajectory. Unlike ice thickness, satellite-derived sea ice concentration, lead frequency and snow thickness during winter months were close to the long-term mean with little variability. With the onset of spring and decreasing distance to the Fram Strait, variability in ice concentration and lead activity increased. In addition, the frequency and strength of deformation events (divergence, convergence and shear) were higher during summer than during winter. Overall, we find that sea ice conditions observed within 5 km distance of the CO are representative for the wider (50 and 100 km) surroundings. An exception is the ice thickness; here we find that sea ice within 50 km radius of the CO was thinner than sea ice within a 100 km radius by a small but consistent factor (4 %) for successive monthly averages. Moreover, satellite acquisitions indicate that the formation of large melt ponds began earlier on the MOSAiC floe than on neighbouring floes.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: We have equipped the unstructured‐mesh global sea‐ice and ocean model FESOM2 with a set of physical parameterizations derived from the single‐column sea‐ice model Icepack. The update has substantially broadened the range of physical processes that can be represented by the model. The new features are directly implemented on the unstructured FESOM2 mesh, and thereby benefit from the flexibility that comes with it in terms of spatial resolution. A subset of the parameter space of three model configurations, with increasing complexity, has been calibrated with an iterative Green's function optimization method to test the impact of the model update on the sea‐ice representation. Furthermore, to explore the sensitivity of the results to different atmospheric forcings, each model configuration was calibrated separately for the NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 and ERA5 forcings. The results suggest that a complex model formulation leads to a better agreement between modeled and the observed sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness, while differences are smaller for sea‐ice thickness and drift speed. However, the choice of the atmospheric forcing also impacts the agreement of the FESOM2 simulations and observations, with NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 being particularly beneficial for the simulated sea‐ice concentration and ERA5 for sea‐ice drift speed. In this respect, our results indicate that parameter calibration can better compensate for differences among atmospheric forcings in a simpler model (i.e., sea‐ice has no heat capacity) than in more realistic formulations with a prognostic sea‐ice thickness distribution and sea ice enthalpy.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The role of model complexity in determining the performance of sea‐ice numerical simulations is still not completely understood. Some studies suggest that a more sophisticated description of the sea‐ice physics leads to simulations that agree better with sea‐ice observations. Others, however, fail to establish a link between complex model formulations and improved model performance. Here, we investigate this open question by analyzing a set of sea‐ice simulations performed with a revised and improved sea‐ice model that features substantial modularity in terms of model complexity. Ten model parameters in three different model configurations are optimized to improve the agreement between model results and observations, allowing a fair comparison between model configurations with varying complexity. The model optimization is repeated for two different atmospheric forcings to shed light on the relationship between model complexity and other sources of uncertainty in the sea‐ice simulations, such as those associated with the atmospheric conditions. The results suggest that a more complex formulation of our model can lead to a more appropriate representation of sea ice concentration and snow thickness, while it is less relevant for sea‐ice thickness and drift.
    Description: Key Points: Increased sea‐ice model complexity can improve the simulated sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness Sea‐ice thickness and drift are only weakly affected by model complexity Parameter calibration can better compensate for differences between atmospheric forcings in a simpler model
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: European Commission (EC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
    Description: US Department of Energy (DOE)
    Keywords: 551.343 ; Arctic ; FESOM2 ; Green's function ; parameter optimization ; sea ice ; unstructured mesh
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: To counteract global warming, a geoengineering approach that aims at intervening in the Arctic ice-albedo feedback has been proposed. A large number of wind-driven pumps shall spread seawater on the surface in winter to enhance ice growth, allowing more ice to survive the summer melt. We test this idea with a coupled climate model by modifying the surface exchange processes such that the physical effect of the pumps is simulated. Based on experiments with RCP 8.5 scenario forcing, we find that it is possible to keep the late-summer sea ice cover at the current extent for the next ∼60 years. The increased ice extent is accompanied by significant Arctic late-summer cooling by ∼1.3 K on average north of the polar circle (2021–2060). However, this cooling is not conveyed to lower latitudes. Moreover, the Arctic experiences substantial winter warming in regions with active pumps. The global annual-mean near-surface air temperature is reduced by only 0.02 K (2021–2060). Our results cast doubt on the potential of sea ice targeted geoengineering to mitigate climate change.
    Keywords: 551.68 ; sea ice ; geoengineering ; Arctic sea ice decline ; global warming ; ice-albedo feedback ; sea ice modeling
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Coupled subseasonal forecast systems with dynamical sea ice have the potential of providing important predictive information in polar regions. Here, we evaluate the ability of operational ensemble prediction systems to predict the location of the sea ice edge in Antarctica. Compared to the Arctic, Antarctica shows on average a 30% lower skill, with only one system remaining more skillful than a climatological benchmark up to ∼30 days ahead. Skill tends to be highest in the west Antarctic sector during the early freezing season. Most of the systems tend to overestimate the sea ice edge extent and fail to capture the onset of the melting season. All the forecast systems exhibit large initial errors. We conclude that subseasonal sea ice predictions could provide marginal support for decision-making only in selected seasons and regions of the Southern Ocean. However, major progress is possible through investments in model development, forecast initialization and calibration.
    Keywords: 551.343 ; sea ice prediction ; sea ice edge ; Antarctica ; Southern Ocean ; S2S time scale
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-10-05
    Description: Using the depth (z) and density (ϱ) frameworks, we analyze local contributions to AMOC variability in a 900-year simulation with the AWI climate model. Both frameworks reveal a consistent interdecadal variability; however, the correlation between their maxima deteriorates on year-to-year scales. We demonstrate the utility of analyzing the spatial patterns of sinking and diapycnal transformations through depth levels and isopycnals. The success of this analysis relies on the spatial binning of these maps which is especially crucial for the maps of vertical velocities which appear to be too noisy in the main regions of up- and downwelling because of stepwise bottom topography. Furthermore, we show that the AMOC responds to fast (annual or faster) fluctuations in atmospheric forcing associated with the NAO. This response is more obvious in the ϱ than in the z framework. In contrast, the link between AMOC deep water production south of Greenland is found for slower fluctuations and is consistent between the frameworks.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-12-28
    Description: We compare strongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA) and weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) by analyzing the assimilation effect on the estimation of the ocean and the atmosphere variables. The AWI climate model (AWI-CM-1.1) is coupled with the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF). Only satellite sea surface temperature data are assimilated. For WCDA, only the ocean variables are directly updated by the assimilation. For SCDA, both the ocean and the atmosphere variables are directly updated by the assimilation. Both WCDA and SCDA improve ocean state and yield similar errors. In the atmosphere, WCDA gives slightly smaller errors for the near-surface temperature and wind velocity than SCDA. In the free atmosphere, SCDA yields smaller errors for the temperature, wind velocity, and specific humidity than WCDA in the Arctic region, while in the tropical region, the errors are generally larger.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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