ALBERT

Description: The PAGER project provides space weather predictions that are initiated from observations on the Sun and predicts radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the most advanced codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. This project includes a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L 1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. Our developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. The PAGER consortium is made up of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.

Description: The Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation project (PAGER) aims to provide a framework for space weather and related effects forecasts. One of the innovative concepts is to plug, downstream of the environment prediction models, an automatized chain evaluating both surface and internal charging to forecast a charging risk evaluation for spacecraft on GEO and MEO orbits. The evaluation of the internal charging risk induced by electrons of the radiation belts with an energy above 0.5 MeV, is carried out throughout an innovating approach, combining different charging models, downstream the environmental ones. The space weather forecast is provided by a simulation of the radiation belt performed with VERB-3D. Downstream, the charging analysis is mainly performed using SPIS-IC, the internal charging branch of the open-source SPIS software (Spacecraft Plasma Interaction Software). SPIS-IC requires the prior computation of the source terms of space charge and dose rates resulting from the transport of primary electrons through the spacecraft structure. This is done beforehand using a 3D direct Monte-Carlo approach. In addition, a simple and fast internal charging 1D code, ICOne has been developed and is also used to evaluate the internal charging risk, based on a semi-empirical deposition rule. The internal charging modeling chain is used to carry out on one hand an evaluation of the electrical risk on a satellite in MEO orbit surrounded by an environment simulated by the VERB-3D Fokker-Plank code, and on the other hand, to reproduce measurements of a charging event of GIOVE-A.