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  • 1
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    In:  Geophys. Res. Lett., New York, 1-2, vol. 30, no. 12, pp. 12-1 - 12-4, pp. 1610, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2003
    Keywords: Aftershocks ; Structural geology ; Crustal deformation (cf. Earthquake precursor: deformation or strain) ; Fault zone ; Stress ; Coulomb ; Seismicity ; GRL ; 7209 ; Seismology: ; Earthquake ; dynamics ; and ; mechanics ; 7223 ; Seismic ; hazard ; assessment ; and ; prediction ; 7230 ; Seismicity ; and ; seismotectonics
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  • 2
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    In:  Geophys. Res. Lett., Zagreb, 3-4, vol. 26, no. 24, pp. 3697-3700, pp. 1431, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 1999
    Keywords: Stress ; Rheology ; Seismicity ; Induced seismicity ; 7200 ; Seismology ; GRL
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  • 3
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    In:  J. Geophys. Res., Zagreb, 3-4, vol. 105, no. B12, pp. 28081-28094, pp. 1431, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2000
    Keywords: Diffusion ; Seismicity ; Earthquake precursor: prediction research ; Earthquake precursor: statistical anal. of seismicity ; JGR
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  • 4
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    In:  Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Tokyo, Railway Tech. Res. Inst., vol. 195, no. 3-4, pp. 291-298, pp. B03311, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2002
    Keywords: Stress ; Earthquake hazard ; Statistical investigations ; Modelling ; Coulomb ; East ; Anatolian ; fault ; zone ; Fault zone
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  • 5
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    In:  Earth planet. Sci. Lett., Tokyo, Railway Tech. Res. Inst., vol. 235, no. 3-4, pp. 632-640, pp. B03311, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2005
    Keywords: Stress ; Coulomb ; Earthquake ; Fault zone ; EAF ; NAF ; Global Positioning System ; historical ; secular ; loading ; EPSL ; Bingoel ; FROTH
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-03-04
    Description: We analyse the influence of the solid Earth tides and ocean loading on the occurrence time of Southern California earthquakes. For each earthquake, we calculate tidal Coulomb failure stress and stress rate on a fault plane that is assumed to be controlled by the orientation of the adjacent fault. To reduce bias when selecting data for testing the tide-earthquake relationship, we create four earthquake catalogues containing events within 1, 1.5, 2.5 and 5 km of nearest faults. We investigate the difference in seismicity rates at times of positive and negative tidal stresses/stress rates given three different cases. We consider seismicity rates during times of positive versus negative stress and stress rate, as well as 2 and 3 hr surrounding the local tidal stress extremes. We find that tidal influence on earthquake occurrence is found to be statistically non-random only in close proximity to tidal extremes meaning that magnitude of tidal stress plays an important role in tidal triggering. A non-random tidal signal is observed for the reverse events. Along with a significant increase in earthquake rates around tidal Coulomb stress maxima, the strength of tidal correlation is found to be closely related to the amplitude of the peak tidal Coulomb stress ( p ). The most effective tidal triggering is found for p ≥ 1 kPa, which is much smaller than thresholds suggested for static and dynamic triggering of aftershocks.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-12-19
    Description: The Canterbury earthquake sequence, which includes the devastating Christchurch event of 2011 February, has to date led to losses of around 40 billion NZ dollars. The location and severity of the earthquakes was a surprise to most inhabitants as the seismic hazard model was dominated by an expected M w  〉 8 earthquake on the Alpine fault and an M w 7.5 earthquake on the Porters Pass fault, 150 and 80 km to the west of Christchurch. The sequence to date has included an M w  = 7.1 earthquake and 3 M w ≥ 5.9 events which migrated from west to east. Here we investigate whether the later events are consistent with stress triggering and whether a simple stress map produced shortly after the first earthquake would have accurately indicated the regions where the subsequent activity occurred. We find that 100 per cent of M  〉 5.5 earthquakes occurred in positive stress areas computed using a slip model for the first event that was available within 10 d of its occurrence. We further find that the stress changes at the starting points of major slip patches of post-Darfield main events are consistent with triggering although this is not always true at the hypocentral locations. Our results suggest that Coulomb stress changes contributed to the evolution of the Canterbury sequence and we note additional areas of increased stress in the Christchurch region and on the Porters Pass fault.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2014-01-09
    Description: Forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks is of great importance to earthquake scientists, civil protection authorities and the general public as these events cause disproportionate damage and consternation relative to their size. At present, there are two main approaches to such forecasts—purely statistical methods based on observations of the initial portions of aftershock sequences and a physics-based approach based on Coulomb stress changes caused by the main shock. Here we develop a new method which combines the spatial constraints from the Coulomb model with the statistical power of the STEP (short-term earthquake probability) approach. We test this pseudo prospectively and retrospectively on the Canterbury sequence against the STEP model and a Coulomb rate–state method, using data from the first 10 d following each main event to forecast the rate of M ≥ 4 events in the following 100 d. We find that in retrospective tests the new model outperforms STEP for two events in the sequence but this is not the case for pseudo-prospective tests. Further, the Coulomb rate–state approach never performs better than STEP. Our results suggest that incorporating the physical constraints from Coulomb stress changes can increase the forecasting power of statistical models and clearly show the importance of good data quality if prospective forecasts are to be implemented in practice.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2011-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-11-01
    Description: Aftershock sequences are an ideal testing ground for operational earthquake forecasting models as they contain relatively large numbers of earthquakes clustered in time and space. To date, most successful forecast models have been statistical, building on empirical observations of aftershock decay with time and earthquake size frequency distributions. Another approach is to include Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock which influence the spatial location of the aftershocks although these models have generally not performed as well as the statistical ones. Here we develop a new hybrid Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)/Coulomb model which attempts to overcome the limitations of its predecessors by redistributing forecast rate from negatively to positively stressed regions based on observations in the model learning period of the percentage of events occurring in those positively stressed regions. We test this model against the 1992 Landers aftershock sequence using three different ETAS kernels and five different models for slip in the Landers earthquake. We also consider two variations of rate redistribution, one based on a fixed value and the other variable depending on the percentage of aftershocks observed in positively stressed Coulomb regions during the learning period. We find that the latter model performs at least as well as ETAS on its own in all tests and better than ETAS in 14 of 15 tests in which we forecast successive 24-hr periods. Our results suggest that including Coulomb stress changes can improve operational earthquake forecasting models. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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