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Monograph available for loan

Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards (2013)

Rougier, Jonathan [Hrsg.] ; Sparks, Steve [Hrsg.] ; Hill, Lisa J. [Hrsg.]

Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press

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Call number: 8/M 13.0124

Description / Table of Contents: Contents: 1. Risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards L. J. Hill, R. S. J. Sparks and J. C. Rougier; 2. Quantifying natural hazard risk J. C. Rougier; 3. Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty J. C. Rougier and K. J. Beven; 4. Expert elicitation and judgment W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke; 5. Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor; 6. Hydrometeorological hazards under future climate change T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor; 7. Hydrological flood uncertainty and risk research J. Freer, K. J. Beven, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall and P. Bates; 8. Uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment W. P. Aspinall; 9. Landslide and avalanche hazards T. K. Hincks, W. P. Aspinall, R. S. J. Sparks, E. A. Holcombe and M. Kern; 10. Tsunami hazard and risk T. K. Hincks, R. S. J. Sparks and W. P. Aspinall; 11. Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, H. S. Crosweller and T. K. Hincks; 12. Risk assessment and management of wildfires T. K. Hincks, B. D. Malamud, R. S. J. Sparks, M. J. Wooster and T. J. Lynham; 13. Technological facilities, infrastructure and hazardous materials, including some notes on space weather R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley and C. A. Taylor; 14. Statistical aspects of risk characterization in ecotoxicology G. L. Hickey and A. Hart; 15. Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty S. Cornell and M. Jackson; 16. Human responses to natural hazard risk: considerations for improving the effectiveness of risk management systems H. S. Crosweller and J. Wilmshurst; Index

Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan

Pages: XI, 574 S. : graph. Darst.

ISBN: 9781107006195

Classification:

B..

Location: Reading room

Branch Library: GFZ Library

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A new global GPS dataset for testing and improving modelled GIA uplift rates (2018)

Schumacher, Maike ; King, Matt ; Rougier, Jonathan C ; [et al.]

PANGAEA

In: Supplement to: Schumacher, Maike; King, Matt; Rougier, Jonathan C; Sha, Zhe; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Bamber, Jonathan L (2018): A new global GPS data set for testing and improving modelled GIA uplift rates. Geophysical Journal International, 214(3), 2164-2176, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy235

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Publication Date: 2023-01-13

Description: We have produced a global dataset of ~4000 GPS vertical velocities that can be used as observational estimates of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) uplift rates. GIA is the response of the solid Earth to past ice loading, primarily, since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20 K yrs BP. Modelling GIA is challenging because of large uncertainties in ice loading history and also the viscosity of the upper and lower mantle. GPS data contain the signature of GIA in their uplift rates but these also contain other sources of vertical land motion (VLM) such as tectonics, human and natural influences on water storage that can mask the underlying GIA signal. A novel fully-automatic strategy was developed to post-process the GPS time series and to correct for non-GIA artefacts. Before estimating vertical velocities and uncertainties, we detected outliers and jumps and corrected for atmospheric mass loading displacements. We corrected the resulting velocities for the elastic response of the solid Earth to global changes in ice sheets, glaciers, and ocean loading, as well as for changes in the Earth's rotational pole relative to the 20th century average. We then applied a spatial median filter to remove sites where local effects were dominant to leave approximately 4000 GPS sites. The resulting novel global GPS dataset shows a clean GIA signal at all post-processed stations and is suitable to investigate the behaviour of global GIA forward models. The results are transformed from a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the total Earth's system (CM) into a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the solid Earth (CE) before comparison with 13 global GIA forward model solutions, with best fits with Pur-6-VM5 and ICE-6G predictions. The largest discrepancies for all models were identified for Antarctica and Greenland, which may be due to either uncertain mantle rheology, ice loading history/magnitude and/or GPS errors.

Keywords: LATITUDE; LONGITUDE; Station label; Velocity, vertical; Velocity, vertical, standard deviation

Type: Dataset

Format: text/tab-separated-values, 12216 data points

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VOLCORE - a global database of visible tephra layers sampled by ocean drilling (2019)

Mahony, Sue H ; Barnard, Nicholas H ; Sparks, R Stephen J ; [et al.]

PANGAEA

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Publication Date: 2024-04-20

Description: The VOLCORE (Volcanic Core Records) database is a collection of 34,696 visible tephra (volcanic ash and associated products) occurrences reported in the initial reports volumes of all of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP; 1966-1983), the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP; 1983-2003), the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP; 2003-2013) and the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP; 2013-present) up to and including IODP Expedition 381. The combined international drilling programmes (OD) have locations with global coverage. Cored tephra layers and tephra-bearing sediments span timescales from recent to ~150 million years in age. This database is a collection of information about reported visible tephra layers entirely or predominantly composed of volcanic ash. Data include the depth below sea floor, tephra thickness, location, and any reported comments. An approximate age was estimated for most (29,493) of the tephra layers using available age-depth models. The database can be applied to tephrochronology, volcanology, geochemistry, studies of sediment transport and palaeoclimatology.

Keywords: ash; Deep Sea Drilling Project; DSDP; Geochemistry; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program / International Ocean Discovery Program; IODP; Ocean Drilling Program; ODP; paleoclimatology; sediment; Tephra; tephrochronology; volcanic; Volcanology; VOLCORE

Type: Dataset

Format: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet, 11.8 MBytes

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VOLCORE_2021 - a 2021 update of the global database of visible tephra layers sampled by ocean drilling (2021)

Mahony, Sue H ; Barnard, Nicholas H ; Sparks, R Stephen J ; [et al.]

PANGAEA

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Publication Date: 2024-04-20

Description: VOLCORE_2021 is an update on the original VOLCORE data released in 2020. Change notes are listed within the VOLCORE_2021 data file. A major update is the new merged Layers-Holes-AgeDepth sheet, enabling easier manipulation of the data. The VOLCORE (Volcanic Core Records) database is a collection of 34,696 visible tephra (volcanic ash and associated products) occurrences reported in the initial reports volumes of all of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP; 1966-1983), the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP; 1983-2003), the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP; 2003-2013) and the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP; 2013-present) up to and including IODP Expedition 381. The combined international drilling programmes (OD) have locations with global coverage. Cored tephra layers and tephra-bearing sediments span timescales from recent to ~150 million years in age. This database is a collection of information about reported visible tephra layers entirely or predominantly composed of volcanic ash. Data include the depth below sea floor, tephra thickness, location, and any reported comments. An approximate age was estimated for most (29,493) of the tephra layers using available age-depth models. The database can be applied to tephrochronology, volcanology, geochemistry, studies of sediment transport and palaeoclimatology.

Keywords: ash; Deep Sea Drilling Project; DSDP; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program / International Ocean Discovery Program; IODP; Ocean Drilling Program; ODP; paleoclimatology; sediment; Tephra; tephrochronology; volcanic; Volcanology; VOLCORE

Type: Dataset

Format: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet, 20.6 MBytes

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Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model (2012)

Gladstone, Rupert M. ; Lee, Victoria ; Rougier, Jonathan ; [et al.]

In: EPIC3Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 333-33, pp. 191-199, ISSN: 0012-821X

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Publication Date: 2019-07-16

Description: A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut

Type: Article , peerRev

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Bayesian spatio-temporal inference of trace gas emissions using an integrated nested Laplacian approximation and Gaussian Markov random fields (2020)

Western, Luke M. ; Sha, Zhe ; Rigby, Matthew ; [et al.]

Copernicus

In: Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13(4): 2095-2107. Published 2020 Apr 28. doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-2095-2020.

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Publication Date: 2020-04-28

Description: We present a method to infer spatially and spatio-temporally correlated emissions of greenhouse gases from atmospheric measurements and a chemical transport model. The method allows fast computation of spatial emissions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The spatial emissions follow a Gaussian process with a Matérn correlation structure which can be represented by a Gaussian Markov random field through a stochastic partial differential equation approach. The inference is based on an integrated nested Laplacian approximation (INLA) for hierarchical models with Gaussian latent fields. Combining an autoregressive temporal correlation and the Matérn field provides a full spatio-temporal correlation structure. We first demonstrate the method on a synthetic data example and follow this using a well-studied test case of inferring UK methane emissions from tall tower measurements of atmospheric mole fraction. Results from these two test cases show that this method can accurately estimate regional greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for spatio-temporal uncertainties that have traditionally been neglected in atmospheric inverse modelling.

Print ISSN: 1991-959X

Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603

Topics: Geosciences

Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.

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Ensemble Averaging and Mean Squared Error (2016)

Rougier, Jonathan

American Meteorological Society

In: Journal of Climate. 2016; 29(24): 8865-8870. Published 2016 Nov 23. doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0012.1.

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Publication Date: 2016-11-23

Description: In fields such as climate science, it is common to compile an ensemble of different simulators for the same underlying process. It is a striking observation that the ensemble mean often outperforms at least half of the ensemble members in mean squared error (measured with respect to observations). In fact, as demonstrated in the most recent IPCC report, the ensemble mean often outperforms all or almost all of the ensemble members across a range of climate variables. This paper shows that these could be mathematical results based on convexity and averaging but with implications for the properties of the current generation of climate simulators.

Print ISSN: 0894-8755

Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442

Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics