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  • 1
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    Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-20
    Description: Socio‐economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder‐elaborated UK‐SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally‐embedded agent‐based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario‐specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present‐day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open‐access, transferrable model framework and provide UK‐SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision‐making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur.
    Description: Key Points: A national‐scale agent‐based model is developed to represent paired climatic and socio‐economic scenarios in the land system. Key scenario characteristics relate to forms of human behavior, interactions and societal preferences. Large differences emerge between scenarios in terms of land management intensities, ecosystem service provision and land sparing.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Natural Environment Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270
    Description: Climate Resilience Programme
    Description: Forestry Commission UK Forestry Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100017497
    Description: UKRI, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
    Description: Global Food Security Programme
    Description: DAAD, German Academic Exchange Service London http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001654
    Description: Government of the United Kingdom http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013986
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133
    Description: Leibniz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664
    Description: https://landchange.earth/CRAFTY
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/CY8WE
    Keywords: ddc:333.7 ; land use change ; land use model ; scenario analysis ; socio‐economic scenario ; model evaluation ; TRACE
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Investigation of neutron deficient nuclei in the region 28〈N, Z 〈50 with the help of heavy ion compound reactions (1974)
    Springer
    The European physical journal 268 (1974), S. 267-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-601X
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Physics
    Notes: Abstract In-beamγ ray spectroscopy withγ singles spectra,γγ coincidences andγ ray angular distributions has been performed with several target-projectile combinations:natCa +32S,natCa +40Ca,54Fe +14N,58Ni +12C,58Ni +14N,66Zn +16O,68Zn +16O. Level schemes of66Ge,68Ge,69As,70Se,74Kr,80Sr and82Sr have been deduced. The following level energies and spin-parity assignments have been found:66Ge: 957.4 keV, 2+; 1693.7; 2174.7, (4+); 3685.7; 4207.5;68Ge: 1015.8, 2+; 1777.9, 2+; 2267.9, 4+; 2428.8, 3(+); 2649.1, 3−; 3582.3, (5−); 3649.3, (5−); 3696.2, (6+); 3883.3, (6−); 4054.4, (7−); 4454.6; 4837.3;69As: 98.2; 164.6;789.6;863.2; 1306;2160;2210.4;2831.5;3258.3;3263.5;3991.1;5195.7;70Se: 945.4, 2+; 1600.9; 2039.4, (4+);74Kr: 455.7, 2+; 1013.5, (4+); 1781.5;80Sr: 385.4, 2+; 980.2, (4+); 1763.2, (6+);82Sr: 573.4, 2+; 1328.5,(4+); 2229.6,(6+). γ ray activity spectra have been measured after the bombardment of natural Ca with32S. The half-life of the new isotope69Se has been found to be 27±3 sec. Recoil distance Doppler-shift measurements have been performed with the reactions62,64Ni,66zn(16O, 2n)76, 78 Kr,80Sr. The following half-lives have been determined:76Kr: 423.8 keV, 2+, 37±5 psec; 1034.2,4+, 5.7±1.6;78Kr: 455.3, 2+, 25±3; 1120.0, 4+, 3.8±1;80Sr: 385.4, 2+, 44±6. The energy and half-life systematics of the first excited state of even-even nuclei suggest a maximum of nuclear deformation in the region 28≦N, Z≦50 near 38 76 Sr38 or 40 78 Zr38.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01669462
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 3
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    Investigation of neutron deficient nuclei in the region 28 (1974)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 1974-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0939-7922
    Electronic ISSN: 1431-5831
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Springer
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 4
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    Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison (2016)
    In:  Global Change Biology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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    CITATION PIK
  • 5
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    Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections (2017)
    In:  Global Change Biology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land‐based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro‐economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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    CITATION PIK
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